Contador - last year - more risk ?

[Metabolol]

If Contador retires after next year (as he has stated) will it allow him to take more risks in regards to the bio passport? Considering that there seems to be a time lag between suspicious passport values (kreuziger case for example) and UCI taking action (when they actually do so) will he really push things to the limit before he says goodbye?

 

[LaFlorecita]

Yes. Out with a bang.

 

[cellardoor]

I doubt it personally. He has his own team and it sounds like one of the reasons he's retiring is so he can focus on managing that team. He wouldn't want to risk a ban that would also prevent him from being a DS.

 

[Benotti69]

Not sure why you think Contador will push the envelope. The testing is a joke so has he not been pushing the envelope anyway.

I think Contador is smart and knows the score. Cannot seem him doing a Riis, but expect him to be pushing for top spot on the podium in July.

It appears that any athlete that does any altitude training gets a free pass on the ABP.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

By focusing on the Tour, he would be giving and beating Froome in a not banned/tired/injured fight. He would solidify his status of number one against all comers, passing the torch only in retirement, which may be his existential goal for the year.

I don't think he needs anything extra to do that. He just needs to not be hurt/banned/injured.

Like so many riders who have been caught, what they got caught for is not their rocket fuel, so they have no need to change their rocket fuel. Contador probably only changed his doping program not to include clenbuterol, or is doing more research about labs' new testing accuracy and precision. (He was probably screening his blood before bagging it, but his own testing couldn't match that machinery that caught him.)

 

[WillemS]

Re:

Like so many riders who have been caught, what they got caught for is not their rocket fuel, so they have no need to change their rocket fuel. Contador probably only changed his doping program not to include clenbuterol, or is doing more research about labs' new testing accuracy and precision. (He was probably screening his blood before bagging it, but his own testing couldn't match that machinery that caught him.)

I don't know, I think that rocket fuel preferences in the peloton evolve as well. With the absence of retroactive testing, all you have to do is beat the current system and your best bet for that is using the latest products that have showed their effects.

I think you're right about Contador abandoning clenbuterol. While it's easy to administer (oral tablets), easy to obtain and relatively cheap, the current glow time for a typical weight loss dosage is about a week, even with a simple urine test. That's just too long to risk it. However, as weight loss is a hot issue at the moment in cycling and has been for ages in body building, there are plenty of alternatives out there.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't think he's been holding back really anyway since he came back from the ban. I think the fluctuation in his performances since 2012 also had a lot to do with training, peaking correctly, etc. No matter how awesome the dope is, you still gotta get the training right

Also, I really think it's not hard for the best cyclist to get the real expensive dope that's not even tested for.

 

[mrhender]

Perhaps he also peaked at a very young age.

I do think he's been doping the most of his career, but I also think he got more careful after his sanction.

Then again, the 2014 season could have been even more crazy without the TDF crash..

Who knows..

Interesting case.

 

[Benotti69]

Re:

By focusing on the Tour, he would be giving and beating Froome in a not banned/tired/injured fight. He would solidify his status of number one against all comers, passing the torch only in retirement, which may be his existential goal for the year.

I don't think he needs anything extra to do that. He just needs to not be hurt/banned/injured.

Like so many riders who have been caught, what they got caught for is not their rocket fuel, so they have no need to change their rocket fuel. Contador probably only changed his doping program not to include clenbuterol, or is doing more research about labs' new testing accuracy and precision. (He was probably screening his blood before bagging it, but his own testing couldn't match that machinery that caught him.)

Cookson fixed that by no longer using the Cologne lab.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Re: Re:

I don't know, I think that rocket fuel preferences in the peloton evolve as well. With the absence of retroactive testing, all you have to do is beat the current system and your best bet for that is using the latest products that have showed their effects.

I think you're right about Contador abandoning clenbuterol. While it's easy to administer (oral tablets), easy to obtain and relatively cheap, the current glow time for a typical weight loss dosage is about a week, even with a simple urine test. That's just too long to risk it. However, as weight loss is a hot issue at the moment in cycling and has been for ages in body building, there are plenty of alternatives out there.

Good distinction. I do think his doping has evolved. I don't think he would decide to operate at 70% of whatever his program evolved into. Maybe 95% post sanction.

Perhaps he also peaked at a very young age.

Your peak years are just part of your individual make up. Some have their curve moved ahead of the norm, some behind. Contador isn't at 2007-2009 levels for sure, but he may still be doping full throttle; just a product of where your peak-years-curve falls on your timeline (and an evolving program with regards to ABP, team changes, personnel changes, ect.).

And Benotti, seriously. We can freeze as many samples as we want, but it ain't worth jack if they're not being tested by the best.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Contador's best years were when he was with Bruyneel, I think that has got more to do with his career trajectory than his physical abilities. 2014 was something else though, I hope he will be on rocket fuel again next year. Full genius! go

 

[Red Rick]

I think doping programs may change slightly each year with the occasional big change when there's a new drug/test or something like that. I think almost everyone is doing their respective full program already, only small guys get busted for either really small, dumb things or for the ancient stuff like epo.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

By focusing on the Tour, he would be giving and beating Froome in a not banned/tired/injured fight. He would solidify his status of number one against all comers, passing the torch only in retirement, which may be his existential goal for the year.

I don't think he needs anything extra to do that. He just needs to not be hurt/banned/injured.

Like so many riders who have been caught, what they got caught for is not their rocket fuel, so they have no need to change their rocket fuel. Contador probably only changed his doping program not to include clenbuterol, or is doing more research about labs' new testing accuracy and precision. (He was probably screening his blood before bagging it, but his own testing couldn't match that machinery that caught him.)

Cookson fixed that by no longer using the Cologne lab.

If Contador were to truly trouble Froome at the TdF, I wouldn't put it past Cookson to divert some samples...

 

[SeriousSam]

Froome v Contador at full genius levels is a spectacle that Cookson will approve of, but of course the clean rider ought to win to save cycling from the dopers. It's a bit like how it was necessary for track and field's continued credibility that Bolt defeated Gatlin.

Mantaining a high level every year is difficult and only Armstrong and Indurain really succeed at that for a prolonged period of time, but if Froome shows up in 2013/2015 form next year he'll win against all but 2009 Contador, and that guy is gone.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

If Contador were to truly trouble Froome at the TdF, I wouldn't put it past Cookson to divert some samples...

That would definitely happen, hopefully people will see through it if it happens.

Froome v Contador at full genius levels is a spectacle that Cookson will approve of, but of course the clean rider ought to win to save cycling from the dopers. It's a bit like how it was necessary for track and field's continued credibility that Bolt defeated Gatlin.

Mantaining a high level every year is difficult and only Armstrong and Indurain really succeed at that for a prolonged period of time, but if Froome shows up in 2013/2015 form next year he'll win against all but 2009 Contador, and that guy is gone.

So basically if Contador beats Froome that means Froome is not at his best, nice job SeriousSam

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Contador had been protected. Remember we only learned about his clenbuterol positive through a leak. And his Saxo teammates, Rogers and Kreuziger, have also been saved from sharp edge of the sword.

Compare that with Astana, say, who UCI are willing to steam roll over at every opportunity.

 

[B_Ugli]

Re:

Contador had been protected. Remember we only learned about his clenbuterol positive through a leak. And his Saxo teammates, Rogers and Kreuziger, have also been saved from sharp edge of the sword.

Compare that with Astana, say, who UCI are willing to steam roll over at every opportunity.

I dunno what the UCI says about Astana publicly is probably quite different to what is said behind closed doors.

Vino is probably Staples best customer the amount of brown envelopes he uses.

 

[Metabolol]

Re:

Froome v Contador at full genius levels is a spectacle that Cookson will approve of, but of course the clean rider ought to win to save cycling from the dopers. It's a bit like how it was necessary for track and field's continued credibility that Bolt defeated Gatlin.

Mantaining a high level every year is difficult and only Armstrong and Indurain really succeed at that for a prolonged period of time, but if Froome shows up in 2013/2015 form next year he'll win against all but 2009 Contador, and that guy is gone.

I disagree with that, a Contador in 2014 shape can beat Froome (at his best). Even if Contador is slightly behind coming into the third week he has a good chance. A Contador in good shape will not mess up the same way Movistar and Quintana did this year, he will capitalize on any weakness shown by Froome.

Personally I suspect Contador will be flying next year and as long as he doesn't get outright busted in a test I doubt he will be sanctioned.

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

Contador had been protected. Remember we only learned about his clenbuterol positive through a leak.

That was under McQuaid's reign of terror. This is now Cookson's reign of terrrrrrrrrrrific management

 

[cnc-it]

Re:

By focusing on the Tour, he would be giving and beating Froome in a not banned/tired/injured fight. He would solidify his status of number one against all comers, passing the torch only in retirement, which may be his existential goal for the year.

I don't think he needs anything extra to do that. He just needs to not be hurt/banned/injured.

Like so many riders who have been caught, what they got caught for is not their rocket fuel, so they have no need to change their rocket fuel. Contador probably only changed his doping program not to include clenbuterol, or is doing more research about labs' new testing accuracy and precision. (He was probably screening his blood before bagging it, but his own testing couldn't match that machinery that caught him.)

I agree, he got done for Clenbuterol but it was only because he had a transfusion that had traces of Clenbuterol in it probably a bag taken from him earlier in the year..I doubt he was using Clen during the season..it's too easy too detect..
He didn't get done for the transfusion because the UCI mistakenly jumped the gun and charged him with a Clenbuterol positive so were not allowed to bring up the transfusion evidence during the court case due to the law as it stood.
Of course non of this was mentioned in his teams press releases..he was made out to be the unfortunate hard done too pro and not the lying cheat that some people in the cycling world think he really is.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re:

Froome v Contador at full genius levels is a spectacle that Cookson will approve of, but of course the clean rider ought to win to save cycling from the dopers. It's a bit like how it was necessary for track and field's continued credibility that Bolt defeated Gatlin.

Mantaining a high level every year is difficult and only Armstrong and Indurain really succeed at that for a prolonged period of time, but if Froome shows up in 2013/2015 form next year he'll win against all but 2009 Contador, and that guy is gone.

Froome's 2015 form was barely enough to hold off Quintana, who could have won if he had raced more aggressively in the 2nd and 3rd stages in the Alps. So I doubt that Contador needs to show up in 2009 form in order to beat him. I'm not sure if Contador can hang with those guys anymore, though, as his whole season was unimpressive, but that's another matter.

 

[hrotha]

"Barely enough"? He was never in any real danger. If Quintana had pushed him harder, he might well have stepped up to deal with it.

 

[The Hitch]

At no point after psm was froome under 90% likely to win the tour. This "Quintana was better, froome lucky to hold him off" is some brailsfraudesque historical revisionism.

 

[Metabolol]

Re:

At no point after psm was froome under 90% likely to win the tour. This "Quintana was better, froome lucky to hold him off" is some brailsfraudesque historical revisionism.

Maybe not but Quintana and Movistar didn't race 100% to win. This joint leadership thing they had going on with Quintana and Valverde is not the way to ride if you want to win a Tour. Unzue messed up and Quintana got **** again although Quintana himself could have done things differently.

 

[JimmyFingers]

Quintana was stronger in the last week, but Froome had too much of an advantage already.