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Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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jmdirt

Dec 6, 2013
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Cookster15 said:
This is an opinion forum and freedom of speech should be encouraged. All opinions that don't break the forum rules should be allowed. There is rubbish claimed by both anti vax and pro vax people just as rubbish has been posted by anti lockdown and pro lockdown sides.

What I would like to see more discussion of is the virulence of omicron. I think its increasingly clear that omicron is far less likely to put us in hospital or kill us compared to delta and the original variant? I don't think this is explained by the levels of vaccination.

Here are the daily stats in my part of the world for hospitalizations in the midst of an omicron case explosion. Plus epidemiologists here have said many of the ongoing deaths and ICU cases are actually the delta variant which is still circulating even though omicron is now dominant .

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live
Click to expand...
Based on what I have read, I think that in many parts of the world immunity is the reason that Omicron is not killing as many people. IMO, if Omicron would have been the germ in 2020 many millions more would have died.

Numbers in my part of the world are all up: cases are higher than they've ever been, hospitalizations are climbing (near the highest), as are ICU cases and deaths. Fortunately, ICU cases and deaths are not following nearly as steep of a ramp as cases. Hospitals are discussing going back to Crisis Care, and schools are closing for the first time since the spring of 2020 (a few closed between Thanksgiving and Christmas of 2020 as a precaution too I guess). I know that you want me to be positive, but man...
 
Cookster15

Cookster15

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jmdirt said:
Based on what I have read, I think that in many parts of the world immunity is the reason that Omicron is not killing as many people. IMO, if Omicron would have been the germ in 2020 many millions more would have died.

Numbers in my part of the world are all up: cases are higher than they've ever been, hospitalizations are climbing (near the highest), as are ICU cases and deaths. Fortunately, ICU cases and deaths are not following nearly as steep of a ramp as cases. Hospitals are discussing going back to Crisis Care, and schools are closing for the first time since the spring of 2020 (a few closed between Thanksgiving and Christmas of 2020 as a precaution too I guess). I know that you want me to be positive, but man...
Click to expand...
Of course cases are higher we all agree omicron is massively more transmissible. Even China can't put a lid on omicron.

I posted a link to hospitalizations and ICUs in my part of the world which still show no signs that hospitals or ICUs will be unable to cope. Here epidemiologists and modelling suggest we are very close to the peak hospitalizations despite the record volumes of new cases.

Sorry but I will prefer to stay optimistic.
 
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Ultrairon

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jmdirt said:
Based on what I have read, I think that in many parts of the world immunity is the reason that Omicron is not killing as many people. IMO, if Omicron would have been the germ in 2020 many millions more would have died.

Numbers in my part of the world are all up: cases are higher than they've ever been, hospitalizations are climbing (near the highest), as are ICU cases and deaths. Fortunately, ICU cases and deaths are not following nearly as steep of a ramp as cases. Hospitals are discussing going back to Crisis Care, and schools are closing for the first time since the spring of 2020 (a few closed between Thanksgiving and Christmas of 2020 as a precaution too I guess). I know that you want me to be positive, but man...
Click to expand...
coronavirus.jhu.edu

Weekly Hospitalization Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

This chart displays the 7-day trend in overall and Covid-19-specific hospitalization occupancy data to help understand changes in capacity and level of stress on hospitals.
coronavirus.jhu.edu coronavirus.jhu.edu
The nation is on the way down now.
You have mentioned before you are in Idaho?
coronavirus.jhu.edu

Weekly Hospitalization Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

This chart displays the 7-day trend in overall and Covid-19-specific hospitalization occupancy data to help understand changes in capacity and level of stress on hospitals.
coronavirus.jhu.edu coronavirus.jhu.edu
That graph reads a long way from being the highest levels.
 
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Ultrairon

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Cookster15 said:
Of course cases are higher we all agree omicron is massively more transmissible. Even China can't put a lid on omicron.

I posted a link to hospitalizations and ICUs in my part of the world which still show no signs that hospitals or ICUs will be unable to cope. Here epidemiologists and modelling suggest we are very close to the peak hospitalizations despite the record volumes of new cases.

Sorry but I will prefer to stay optimistic.
Click to expand...
I am also staying optimistic. In fact I think here in the USA we are either at the peak or going down.
covid.cdc.gov

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.
covid.cdc.gov

Some would rather live in fear and panic. Not me.
 
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djpbaltimore

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1483827959836278786
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/RebeccaDRobbins/status/1483827959836278786


Cookster15 said:
This is an opinion forum and freedom of speech should be encouraged. All opinions that don't break the forum rules should be allowed. There is rubbish claimed by both anti vax and pro vax people just as rubbish has been posted by anti lockdown and pro lockdown sides.

What I would like to see more discussion of is the virulence of omicron. I think its increasingly clear that omicron is far less likely to put us in hospital or kill us compared to delta and the original variant? I don't think this is explained by the levels of vaccination.
Click to expand...
It's trolling and a lot is political. It is against the rules of the forum on 2 counts.
search said:
did you even check the link?

I don't mind different opinions, anecdotal evidence, even questionable sources. Those are all things which can be talked about. But how are multiple links to an anti-vaxxer, covid-denier "satire" site going to contribute to a discussion?!
Click to expand...
It is way beyond the single link. The Babylon Bee is the most cited website in this thread now. A website pushing the message that ivermectin works and vaccines don 't. But it gets away with it because it is 'satire'. Wink....wink.

The last article is based on the premise that pcr tests are picking up false positives. Except it is the reverse, there are a lot more false negatives than false positives. It is only the fever swamps that believe nutso theories about pcr.
 
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FrankB

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djpbaltimore said:
I wonder if this is part of the reason that authorities have been slow to accept past infection as parity to vaccination. To avoid people intentionally infecting themselves.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1483905268144615425
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/JeremyFarrar/status/1483905268144615425
Click to expand...
I would imagine that reluctance to accept past infection is for the sake of expedience. You could also argue that her death is a product of punishment meted out to the unvaccinated, although I don't think her actions were reasonably foreseeable.
 
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Oldermanish

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FrankB said:
I would imagine that reluctance to accept past infection is for the sake of expedience. You could also argue that her death is a product of punishment meted out to the unvaccinated, although I don't think her actions were reasonably foreseeable.
Click to expand...
From what reporting I read was she had a level of confidence due to the recovery of her family's Covid infections, although they occurred after they had been vaccinated. According to the story she had an interest in getting what she guessed to be a mild version like Omicron so she could recovery, stay at home and then feel free to attend and perform in concerts. Her son had noted she had no anti-vax philosophy or reason not to vax but hadn't done it.
IMO it is more a tragically misjudged choice; not any sort of punishment. Tough and sad for her family and friends, though.
 
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jmdirt

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Cookster15

Cookster15

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Cookster15 said:
Some good news. NSW Australia hospital admissions look like they might be peaking as expected by epidemiologists and modeling. The first drop in admissions yesterday.

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live
Click to expand...

More good news in the data, hopefully this is sustained (latest data for NSW):

covidlive.com.au

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live

Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in NSW
covidlive.com.au covidlive.com.au

Peak hospitalizations for NSW were two days ago (Jan 19). Prior to then hospitalized cases were growing daily.
NSW ICU admissions have also peaked (down 33 since the peak on Sep 21 (delta surge)
NSW ventilated patients have not yet peaked but at 68 patients, that is 55 below the delta peak on Sep 18.

Yes many more people are vaccinated since the delta peak but I think this is very encouraging knowing the relatively huge cases being recorded here under omicron (relative to larger populations). Plus I believe many of those in ICU are infected with the delta variant, but I don't know what proportion.

I also notice in World-o-meter (total Australia) that there are 419 listed as "serious or critical" out of 1,179,553 currently active cases (.04%). I find this very encouraging.
 
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dusty red roads

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roundabout said:
www.nature.com

How does Omicron spread so fast? A high viral load isn’t the answer

Data on viral levels point to immune evasion as a cause of the variant’s transmissibility.
www.nature.com www.nature.com
Click to expand...

Interesting. This might correlate with 3 cases in 3 separate households I know personally:
1)- 40ish male very mild at home case, wife and kids didn't get it
  1. - 30ish male very mild at home case , partner (female) living with him didn't
  2. - mid 20s male mild but a bit sick with it - at home case, partner (female) living with him didn't.
I don't think they did much isolating either.

And a friend told me about another one of their relative, possibly male, maybe 50s, wife didn't get it.
 
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dusty red roads

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Japan's rising, yesterday a record high in Tokyo of our 7000 (a week ago I think it was 1000); quasi state of emergencies declared in some areas, including Tokyo - as usual night venues asked to operate on restricted hours and not serve alcohol, however I'm not sure the gvt will be paying them this time, just a one-time fine, so I'm guessing more places will ignore as they can't afford to close. My work has either been restricted or cancelled - I work in larger places that tend to obey government requests. Hopefully Japan moves thru the wave quickly like other places.
 
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jmdirt

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Unchained

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movingtarget said:
www.theguardian.com

Florida health official put on leave after encouraging staff to get Covid vaccine

State health agency conducting inquiry into Raul Pino to ‘determine if any laws were broken’
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...
been on a recent,4921 mile door to door trip to Florida, masks are pretty random and so were some of the things I observed. Hit or miss in Florida( Pensacola) DMV a all staff masked and visible posted signs requiring masks for service,@25% of the packed place were not wearing masks and still getting their tasks accomplished. In Alabama,talked with mostly Caucasian men deer hunters that said that Covid had a bad impact on their community,church membership and fellow hunters,neighbors,all above 60 yo dead. And in Texas,very random signs of anything being done, and in Louisiana,masks were handed out to people entering gas station convenience store combo..@80% use in Southern Arizona businesses..
overall I would say I saw signs encouraging or mandating masks everywhere that I can remember..
 
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Nomad

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"Israeli immunologist claims Covid-19 ‘cannot be defeated’, slams ‘failed’ pandemic response."

www.news.com.au

Israeli expert slams ‘failed’ coronavirus response

A leading Israeli immunologist has penned a scathing open letter slamming the government for its “failed” coronavirus response.
www.news.com.au www.news.com.au

www.google.com

Israel world #1 in daily COVID cases per capita; exposed schoolkids won’t quarantine

Starting next Thursday, students to take antigen tests twice a week at home and present negative results when going to school; PM says 'millions' of home tests to be handed out
www.google.com www.google.com
 
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Cookster15

Cookster15

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Based upon what we are seeing around the world with omicron, relying on masks to curb the virus is futile.

Nomad’s article from an Israeli epidemiologist is telling.

Plus, I read today that Europe has just decided in their wisdom to classify Australia as a “Covid danger zone”. Based upon what I see for the European countries I checked that means Western Europe is also a Covid danger zone.
 
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jmdirt

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Cookster15 said:
Based upon what we are seeing around the world with omicron, relying on masks to curb the virus is futile.

Nomad’s article from an Israeli epidemiologist is telling.

Plus, I read today that Europe has just decided in their wisdom to classify Australia as a “Covid danger zone”. Based upon what I see for the European countries I checked that means Western Europe is also a Covid danger zone.
Click to expand...
Masks became 'futile' when 75% of the population stopped wearing them. My work still requires them and we have had one case traced to work (pretty large company, multiple locations, traveling workers...).

I'm not sure what article you are referring to, but I saw that an Israeli epidemiologist yelled at his government about how poorly they handled the epidemic, but he didn't share what would have been a better way to handle it.

I wonder why they classified you as a SC2 danger zone? Its seems like you have done better than most.
 
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gregrowlerson

gregrowlerson

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Cookster15 said:
Based upon what we are seeing around the world with omicron, relying on masks to curb the virus is futile.

Nomad’s article from an Israeli epidemiologist is telling.

Plus, I read today that Europe has just decided in their wisdom to classify Australia as a “Covid danger zone”. Based upon what I see for the European countries I checked that means Western Europe is also a Covid danger zone.
Click to expand...

Yeah I saw the danger zone thing. I'm not surprised.

I was planning on travelling to Italy in May, but probably won't try to now.
 
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