Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[red_flanders]

A lot of straw man to your basic premise. Who has said that lockdowns need to stay until a vaccine drops? I certainly haven't. I have stated above that an effective vaccine may not be possible.

I didn’t say you said it, and I did specifically mention the mayor of LA who has come out against full removal of lockdown until there is a cure. There are plenty of others talking about lockdown until vaccine, though they are a minority. So your response reads as fairly odd to me.

My comment to you is that despite the rant, his salient point is relevant and hardly the view of a vocal minority. We started with flattening the curve, a strategy which the vast majority of Americans (other than ideologues) were on board with, but it’s morphing into very different policy which many see as having lost sight of the original goal of not overwhelming the system.

 

[djpbaltimore]

He said he would rather be dead than start over. What is salient or relevant about that point?

what i find odd is that you didn't answer my question. What Portnoy misses is that govt hasn't dictated lockdown. People have chosen them. And continue to support them in a clear majority.

Our strategy is morphing into a policy not supported by the majority: pre mature reopening. The original goal was to mitigate viral spread. And use the interim to build an apparatus to combat the virus long term. It is not hard to conceptualize.

 

[red_flanders]

He said he would rather be dead than start over. What is salient or relevant about that point?

what i find odd is that you didn't answer my question. What Portnoy misses is that govt hasn't dictated lockdown. People have chosen them. And continue to support them in a clear majority.

Our strategy is morphing into a policy not supported by the majority: pre mature reopening. The original goal was to mitigate viral spread. And use the interim to build an apparatus to combat the virus long term. It is not hard to conceptualize.

As I said, I’m not a fan of rants because of the idiocy which can obscure the salient point. Which I’ve stated twice. So I’ll accept that you’re not hearing what I’m saying for whatever reason. Not going to argue about it.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Uh-huh. Still not addressing my main point. I am going to assume that this avoidance is intentional.

 

[Oldermanish]

I think we agree. People should stay homeish. Once places relaxed local protocol doesn't mean they are "open" for business. I have a short term rental property in Fruita and out of respect for my "neighbors" there I haven't been renting it because every inquiry is from out of state. I live 250 miles away in Boulder and haven't gone there myself. Missing out on great spring mtb'n.

I think homeish, or a version of it will be the new normal and appreciate that was the question. Folks that run small and big restaurants, for example: they will default to protecting their employees from US, the consumer as much as protecting the customer out of business survival. There will be the examples, like the Wisconsin bar party where people take the cautionary encouragement to re-engage and turn it into NekidCaboSpringBreak. Those business models will Darwin out their customer base and employees. That's likely to apply to every business we ever use for the near future.
I think we will need to rely on the best intentions of our neighbors and strangers in the future. As I live very near to Ground Zero of Washington State (and the US') initial death spread and know folks working at the UW Medical Center it's hard to loosen up so I'll trust neighbors first.
Then I'll come to your neighborhood when you and I can afford to burden your hospital with my inevitable visit due to poor MTB skills.

 

[movingtarget]

It'll be interesting to see indeed. I'd guess many of the Asian countries (Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, maybe China as well) will basically stay isolated for a year. They may be able to. What about countries like New Zealand though? Or Thailand? Can they do it without tourism?

Australia and New Zealand will open up tourism between each other before a wider international opening. Being reasonably close but also isolated should give them some answers over time and both countries are coping well at the moment at least medically. A place like Bali will be sweating on Australia opening it's borders sooner rather than later as it hosts a huge amount of Australian tourists every year.

 

[djpbaltimore]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2020/05/14/heres-what-barstools-dave-portnoy-gets-wrong-in-his-rant-about-coronavirus-restrictions/3d889af53c71

 

[yaco]

It'll be interesting to see indeed. I'd guess many of the Asian countries (Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, maybe China as well) will basically stay isolated for a year. They may be able to. What about countries like New Zealand though? Or Thailand? Can they do it without tourism?

Nah - The Asian countries will open up in the second half of the year to other Asian destinations and later Australia and New Zealand - Europe, Africa and the Americas are a way off.

 

[yaco]

Australia and New Zealand will open up tourism between each other before a wider international opening. Being reasonably close but also isolated should give them some answers over time and both countries are coping well at the moment at least medically. A place like Bali will be sweating on Australia opening it's borders sooner rather than later as it hosts a huge amount of Australian tourists every year.

Australia needs to open up or it will fall behind the rest of the world - You have states who have closed their borders WHEN all you have to do is request a negative COVID19 test - I am hearing that Australia will open up to selected Asian destinations in October.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Who has said that lockdowns need to stay until a vaccine drops?

You arent paying attention. Probably working and getting paid time and a half.

The haves and have nots.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

He said he would rather be dead than start over. What is salient or relevant about that point?

Again, had you ever built anything in your life you may have come to realize there really are things worse than death.

I am 100% confident Mr. Portnoy is 100% serious. I feel exactly the same. I don’t want to try and do it again. If it’s over, I am over. The end.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2020/05/14/heres-what-barstools-dave-portnoy-gets-wrong-in-his-rant-about-coronavirus-restrictions/3d889af53c71

I’m curious to know how many paychecks Sarah has missed.

None? Quelle surprise.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

I didn’t say you said it, and I did specifically mention the mayor of LA who has come out against full removal of lockdown until there is a cure. There are plenty of others talking about lockdown until vaccine, though they are a minority. So your response reads as fairly odd to me.

My comment to you is that despite the rant, his salient point is relevant and hardly the view of a vocal minority. We started with flattening the curve, a strategy which the vast majority of Americans (other than ideologues) were on board with, but it’s morphing into very different policy which many see as having lost sight of the original goal of not overwhelming the system.

Yes, and the divider is who’s still getting paid and who is not. DJ has stated he never needs another paycheck and he's Golden.

So whatever he has to offer regarding anything revolving personal finances needs to be filtered through that lense. He’s independently wealthy and doesnt give a crap if you are anyone else is circling the drain economically.

Dude reminds me of the old poster Velocity. Maybe they are related.

 

[red_flanders]

Yes, and the divider is who’s still getting paid and who is not. DJ has stated he never needs another paycheck and he's Golden.

I’m getting paid and paid well. That isn’t the divider and there doesn’t need to be one. We just disagree, a bit. Not all that much, actually. People need to pull out of their corners and talk.

 

[search]

Australia and New Zealand will open up tourism between each other before a wider international opening. Being reasonably close but also isolated should give them some answers over time and both countries are coping well at the moment at least medically. A place like Bali will be sweating on Australia opening it's borders sooner rather than later as it hosts a huge amount of Australian tourists every year.

Nah - The Asian countries will open up in the second half of the year to other Asian destinations and later Australia and New Zealand - Europe, Africa and the Americas are a way off.

okay, yeah, countries with similar approaches and (more or less) numbers can open up to each other, as they do in Europe right now. The difference is though, that over here it doesn't really matter if you have 5 cases flown in from elsewhere, while the Asian countries will probably need to do everything to prevent it from happening.

In Austria you can do a PCR test (for EUR 190) after arrival at the airport now , wait three hours, and if it's negative, you can skip the 2 weeks of quarantine. For comparison: in some Asian countries (Hong Kong, I think?!) you need to do a PCR test after arrival, and if it's negative, you are allowed to do a two week quarantine.

 

[search]

Agree with most of that. But I would say that safe and optimal are not the same thing in this case. I think people are over-indexing on safe (from coronavirus) and under-indexing on safe (from economic devastation and it's death toll among other things). But agree it has to be done in phases. But the idea of not opening up until there's a cure just doesn't make sense.

in Germany the Helmholtz & Ifo institutes did a combined study on the vice versa effects of the fight against the virus and the economy. Assuming that the target is to reach a number of ~300 new infections every day (which could be handled by the health offices without risking another outbreak)

So both epidemiological models as well as economical knowledge about the lockdown were taken into account, and they came to the conclusion that a co-existence works best at a reproductions rate of around 0.62.

At that rate, the number of deaths doesn't rise significantly compared to a lower one:

and also the economical impact, compared to the normally expected GDP, remains at the lowest possible level

I don't know how comparable this is to other countries, but I guess it shows quite good, that neither a really harsh containment nor opening up too much are an option. A right balance needs to be found now

https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/sd-2020-digital-06-ifo-helmholtz-wirtschaft-gesundheit-corona_1.pdf

 

[Kaptain Kool]

okay, yeah, countries with similar approaches and (more or less) numbers can open up to each other, as they do in Europe right now. The difference is though, that over here it doesn't really matter if you have 5 cases flown in from elsewhere, while the Asian countries will probably need to do everything to prevent it from happening.

In Austria you can do a PCR test (for EUR 190) after arrival at the airport now , wait three hours, and if it's negative, you can skip the 2 weeks of quarantine. For comparison: in some Asian countries (Hong Kong, I think?!) you need to do a PCR test after arrival, and if it's negative, you are allowed to do a two week quarantine.

I think within a couple of months my country (Thailand) will open visitors from at least other nations in the region. Tourists from China are already being lined up, I think the main difference from pre-COVID days is that they will be independent tourists rather than larger tour groups. We won't require a quarantine, maybe their home nations will require upon their return.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

I’m getting paid and paid well. That isn’t the divider and there doesn’t need to be one. We just disagree, a bit. Not all that much, actually. People need to pull out of their corners and talk.

Well I’ll go ahead and say its a divide and DJ’s on one side of it. The financially secure - for a large part - aren’t really that interested in what‘s going on with those getting destroyed. It’s oh-so-easy to be critical of those in desperate straights.

In LA we have Eric Garcetti. “The city of Los Angeles won’t fully reopen until there’s a vaccine for COVID-19, Mayor Eric Garcetti said Wednesday.” Right on.

 

[Nomad]

I wanted to make this separate from the Vit D discussion. What do you mean by OTC meds (fever reducer, cough suppressant...)? Based on reading your posts over the years I know that you know this, but I'll type it anyway: OTC meds treat the symptoms not the virus/bacteria. They make you feel slightly better while your immune system battles the pathogen.

I'm not a medical doc, but based on your description, I would suggest that the several days of OTCs plus few days of D3 (about a week?) gave your immune system time to get the upper hand. The D3 probably didn't hurt, but I'd say it was the time that made the difference. One BUT here is that when we are sick we tend not to eat as well/much so supplementation can help our immune system as the days in bed stretch on.

EDIT: Older populations in care facilities might be nutrient deficient so that might bend the numbers. It seems like a good facility would perform regular blood work and adjust diet (including supplementation) as needed, but I'm not sure if that is a 'standard'.

Yes...the OTC meds were basically Nyquil & Tylenol for symptom control - and neither was was really doing much for symptom control anyway. My son & I were actually getting worse by the day and were contemplating a trip to urgent care (especially for the respiratory problems). That's where we both did a modified "vitamin D3 hammer" (you can Google "vitamin D3 hammer" for further if you're interested). Within 24 hrs we both felt much better with improvement on the respiratory issues and getting our appetites back - we could actually taste food again! So it was about 10 days for the both of us before we got back into the weight room/track and resumed training. As I mentioned, I lost ~12 lbs of muscle mass and virtually all CV fitness. My son lost some weight and quite a bit of fitness as well. But it was a welcomed challenge to get back into training after being so ill. About 3 weeks for me to get back to pre-illness level (my doc said expect 5-6 weeks for a severe case of the flu at my age ), and my son, who runs sprints on the college track team, took about half that time.

Like I mentioned, I've never been this sick for 15+ years that I could remember. Back in 2017/18 during one of the worst flu seasons in decades (according to the CDC), I never got the flu nor did my son. And I was co-coaching my son during his senior year of HS and just about every other athlete & coaches that I was around was sick at one time or another. But this year we both come down with severe cases of the flu at almost the exact same time - strange.

Maybe it was placebo...maybe it was wasn't (I don't think it was). But that's why I made sure to introduce this as an anecdotal and nothing more.

My daily dose before the flu was 1000 IU daily and then after the hammer, I'm now taking the tolerable upper intake level (ULs) for D3, which is 4000 IU daily. I plan on getting my levels checked next month (as should everyone) and I'll scale down during the summer as I usually can get adequate sun exposure.

Some interesting info:

The VitaminD Society

Office of Dietary Supplements - Vitamin D

Vitamin D overview for health professionals. Research health effects, dosing, sources, deficiency symptoms, side effects, and interactions here.

ods.od.nih.gov

The former CDC director recommends vitamin D for reducing infection risk from the coronavirus:

Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden: Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D

Vitamin D supplementation reduces the risk of respiratory infection, regulates cytokine production and can limit the risk of other viruses such as influenza.

www.google.com

 

[Jagartrott]

I'm just reading an article about all kinds of "this could help" tricks and what the scientific literature says. Some are bogus (beside possible placebo effects), like 'aroma therapy' etc. Some have no clear beneficial effects (vitamin C and D supplements are used as examples). It could be that there are specific supplements can help, but for now, there is no clear scientific proof of anything in particular. It is also mentioned that some healthy people die of corona because their immuno-system overreacts, so then means to boost your response may have adverse effects (i.e. be careful). The conclusion is: do the boring routine things you know to be beneficial for your health: enough sleep, enough (but not too much) aerobic exercise, plenty of vegetables, don't smoke, avoid alcohol, avoid stress.

 

[djpbaltimore]

If I haven’t mentioned it, I have been perusing this site since it was Bill’s. Been a cycling fanatic since Lemond did the thing in 1986.

Not too far back you mentioned donating your paycheck to the Baltimore food bank and ASCPA. In there you discussed your financial security. But you are right, you never said never. So I apologize for that.

Portnoy built Barstool Sports. It’s a media company. Its his life’s work. The company is doing fine.. but one has to work exceptionally hard to miss his point OR you have no idea what he’s talking about. Either isn't a good look for you.

Apology accepted.

A website that most people have never heard of. It is something to be proud of from a creative sense, but by the same token, if you can't rebuild something after being knocked down what does that signify about the quality of the man?

The thing about financial security is that the people who have lost jobs are more likely to support lockdowns, not less likely. Because they are most likely employed in jobs with high exposure potential and have a right to worry about infection. People like to harp about choice, but what choice do people have that are 60+ and need to work at essential jobs to pay bills. There was a story about a 70 year old lady who worked at Walmart. Her and her husband both got infected and both died. 60 year old teachers are told to hang back. But what support are they being offered? Hanging back with no income is not much of a choice for most people TBH.

A Washington Post/Ipsos poll released this week found that while 75 percent of the population agrees that “the U.S. should keep trying to slow the spread of the coronavirus, even if that means keeping many businesses closed,” laid-off workers are more likely (79 percent) to support keeping businesses closed.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

A website that most people have never heard of.

Barstool Sports is selling a big stake to a casino company, in a deal that values the company at $450 million

Some website.

https://www.businessinsider.com/bar...ng-penn-national-valuation-450-million-2020-1

 

[Oldermanish]

Most State Constitutions do not allow for the restriction of movement of the non-sick. Like California for example.

But the US Constitution has the Supremacy clause and I think it highly likely that most of these shut down orders aren‘t Constitutional. Its my opinion however by the time a case could be brought C19 will be a distant memory.

Today the State Supreme Court struck down the lower court decision in Oregon...for a period. To your point: I think everyone is stalling this one out and the "tool" of the original Stay at Home order is an attempt and continuing to remind folks that it's not over. The risk is declining in Oregon and Washington so gradual opening is happening.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Barstool Sports is selling a big stake to a casino company, in a deal that values the company at $450 million

Some website.

https://www.businessinsider.com/bar...ng-penn-national-valuation-450-million-2020-1

That doesn't refute my claim. I'm a sports fan and have never visited their site. What is it worth now? What Portnoy and Clay should be telling people is that if you want college and NFL football, you should wear a mask and social distance as best you can. It seems like the people most against lockdowns are also the least likely to wear masks. That is a powderkeg. Will it blow up? Maybe, maybe not.

On Friday, my partner had to call 911 because this crazy guy was protesting the covid 19 testing site, calling the virus a hoax. You think that this kind of denialism has no repercussions, I have news for you.

 

[djpbaltimore]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1262897869822058503

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/scottgottliebmd/status/1262897869822058503