Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[gregrowlerson]

In Australia will still 'only' have less than 400 confirmed cases, although of course with the lack of testing the real number is probably much higher.

Nobody will probably ever truly know if more should have been done, or less. I think that a key statistic will be something like this: deaths of over 75's in Italy in 2019 vs. deaths of over 75's in Italy in 2020. I say this because the elderly do die regularly regardless. When people think of 'pandemic', they probably think 10 times or even 100 times worse, like something such as World War 2, where thousands of young died each day, who otherwise, very highly likely would not have died.

But it is probably not so much the case of just deaths from CV, but the number who are ill, thus the over run hospital systems.

 

[Koronin]

To test a treatment it just needs to prove effective on people infected, so it doesn't matter if it's 400 or 1000 infected if it's helping those it's being used on. What's being tested in Australia is a treatment not a vaccine. The vaccine is being tested in Seattle, Washington that has a large number of cases. As for how many, who knows because because of lack of testing (which is supposed to be much better in Seattle now).

 

[GVFTA]

Denver closed all bars, restaurants, cafes etc until May 11th. The entire state will probably follow. We are at the beginning of our vacation travel season that I assume they will try to discourage if not out right stop. We don't need 10 million people coming here on vacation in the coming months.

 

[Koronin]

Is Denver only closing the dine in part and still allowing take out and delivery as everywhere (except apparently San Fransisco) is allowing?

 

[GVFTA]

Is Denver only closing the dine in part and still allowing take out and delivery as everywhere (except apparently San Fransisco) is allowing?

Yes. Also, Uber waived delivery fees nation wide from what I heard. The only way they can keep people from coming to Colorado is by shutting down the hotel industry. It wouldn't surprise me if it happens. Closing the ski resorts was probably step one.

 

[Koronin]

Yes. Also, Uber waived delivery fees nation wide from what I heard. The only way they can keep people from coming to Colorado is by shutting down the hotel industry. It wouldn't surprise me if it happens. Closing the ski resorts was probably step one.

That could happen. Some of the hotels in Vegas have closed. So it's possible that could happen. On the other hand we have tourists right now on the Outer Banks, NC.

 

[GVFTA]

Colorado is state wide as of now. Gonna be a peaceful summer. Lots of hospitality people screwed.

 

[BullsFan22]

Honestly, if every country takes extreme measures (i.e. shutting down all schools, restaurants, bars, concerts, strict self quarantine-particularly the elderly and sick obviously, closing down ski areas, sports events on any level, etc) and keeps those measures until Summer (say June 15) and things haven't slowed down or been contained and actually got worse, than you know this isn't just some media hype. There are various levels of concern that I see where I live.

 

[Koronin]

Unfortunately a lot of people are going to lose everything because bills aren't going to pay themselves and very few Americans can afford to miss a paycheck. If companies don't allow delays in payment people won't be able to pay the bills. Italy has allowed for delays in payments. Canada is looking at going into lock down, but also making delayed payments as part of that.

 

[aphronesis]

To Battle Virus, 7 California Counties Order Everyone to Stay Home (Published 2020)

On Monday, seven counties around Silicon Valley announced residents should not go out for three weeks except to meet “essential needs.”

www.nytimes.com

 

[SHAD0W93]

To Battle Virus, 7 California Counties Order Everyone to Stay Home (Published 2020)

On Monday, seven counties around Silicon Valley announced residents should not go out for three weeks except to meet “essential needs.”

www.nytimes.com

Las Vegas might do the same.

On a side note I think my mom and I got it from our works so we will see if it's this or common cold. Good luck everyone and see you all on the other side.

 

[aphronesis]

NY is basically doing the same. I put that there in part for Koronin to see how CA is at least attempting to deal with some aspects of gigged work.

Be well

 

[Merckx index]

One unintended consequence of all the workers now at home that I have wondered about is the strain on internet service. Here's an article that talks about that. I thought this was interesting:

In Seattle, which has been a center of the virus outbreak in the United States, internet traffic started spiking Jan. 30, nine days after the first positive case of the virus in the area with people accessing news and using chat apps, according to security company Cloudflare. Last week, overall internet traffic in Seattle rose 30% compared with a normal week for the city in January.

https://www.sfgate.com/business/article/So-we-re-working-from-home-Can-the-internet-15135230.php

The consequences of falling short are catastrophic, while if you're on top of something the measures you take will seem over the top to a LOT of people.

Yes. Fauci made the point that the wisest course of action is usually one that appears to everyone to be an over-reaction at the time. If you seem to be taking the appropriate action, you're probably not doing nearly enough. And of course, leaders and politicians very much care about how their actions are perceived. They're like football coaches who would rather lose by taking an action that critics will view as reasonable if conservative, rather than taking a bold action which, if it doesn't work, will have everyone asking for their head.

 

[jmdirt]

Another episode of "About Me":

Both my wife and I are working from home as of today. Her boss asked a few people to come in this morning (not sure why some type of app couldn't have been used), on her drive she said the parking lot of two gyms were completely packed as were the parking lots at two supermarkets. People who aren't taking this seriously are going to F the rest of us.

 

[hrotha]

True cases in Germany are probably much closer to official cases in Germany compared to Italy, Spain or France. At least I hope so.

Why do you think that?

 

[SHAD0W93]

Another episode of "About Me":

Both my wife and I are working from home as of today. Her boss asked a few people to come in this morning (not sure why some type of app couldn't have been used), on her drive she said the parking lot of two gyms were completely packed as were the parking lots at two supermarkets. People who aren't taking this seriously are going to F the rest of us.

That is how a Smith's was, whole parking lot packed and spilled into the rest of the parking lot. Total madness.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Another aspect to all of this is just who will benefit? Because there is usually a balancing act; one man's pain is the next man's pleasure. The concern is that the rich will get richer. Because large companies have the backing behind them to survive a lockdown that lasts for months, but what about small businesses? Many will not survive, and in the post CV world, many companies will have an even greater monopoly on things than they already do.

We are seeing now, enforced closures of small cafes and restaurants. But is this really necessary? Why not just reduce the tables by roughly half, hence having greater space between groups of people. At least this would ensure that small businesses still retain some of their usual income, and without necessarily increasing the spread of the disease greatly. Because we are seeing mass gatherings at airports, and at supermarkets, regardless. In the current climate, shouldn't there be restrictions placed on maximum number of people in a supermarket at any one time? At least if we were to be consistent with all of the other restrictions.

Whilst small eateries face financial ruin, eateries that are usually far less healthy for both us as a species, and the planet, 'restaurants' like McDonalds, are likely to not only survive, but thrive, because they have drive through facilities.

 

[aphronesis]

Another episode of "About Me":

Both my wife and I are working from home as of today. Her boss asked a few people to come in this morning (not sure why some type of app couldn't have been used), on her drive she said the parking lot of two gyms were completely packed as were the parking lots at two supermarkets. People who aren't taking this seriously are going to F the rest of us.

Not if you avoid them. And by some accounts this is an affluent concern: upscale stores are hit by mobs while lower income stores see the same modest purchase rates as always.

 

[Merckx index]

Apparently the situation in Spain is no riding outside is allowed due to threat if injury

Speaking of which...I picked a very bad time to break a bone for the first time in my life while falling off my bike. I had to go to the E.R., then have surgery, again a first. I managed to get out of the hospital the day before the lockdown began where I am. I am almost totally helpless now, depending on family and friends to care for me, pissing in a bottle, shitting in a diaper (today, finally, a dishpan, hooray for small steps!), moving a few feet with great effort. I haven't been this physically helpless since I think I was 1-2 years old.

Older people like me are not only at greater risk for dying from the virus, but of course our bones mend really slowly. My goal now is just to heal to the point where i can use crutches, then I will be reasonably mobile. I'm supposed to return to the doctor in about two weeks to have the stitches taken out. The cases just started taking off when i was hospitalized, and in two weeks I worry the hospital will be swarming with positives I have to make my way through. The night before my surgery, I had to endure the sound of workers till 11 PM, building an isolation ward in anticipation of the influx of cases.

As nightmarish as this has been, I'm counting some blessings. I fell shortly after turning off a main highway, onto a concrete path. Had I fallen on the highway--and the nature of the dumb accident is that I could have--I might have been hit by a vehicle, possibly killed, certainly injured far worse. And if this had happened a few weeks later, I might have had trouble getting medical care, and even if I did get it, I might have exposed myself to a lot of people with the virus. And of course, this is a good time to be forced to stay inside your home all the time. Even if I were able to go out, I wouldn't be doing it much.

 

[Koronin]

Speaking of which...I picked a very bad time to break a bone for the first time in my life while falling off my bike. I had to go to the E.R., then have surgery, again a first. I managed to get out of the hospital the day before the lockdown began where I am. I am almost totally helpless now, depending on family and friends to care for me, pissing in a bottle, shitting in a diaper (today, finally, a dishpan, hooray for small steps!), moving a few feet with great effort. I haven't been this physically helpless since I think I was 1-2 years old.

Older people like me are not only at greater risk for dying from the virus, but o course our bones mend really slowly. My goal now is just to heal to the point where i can use crutches, then I will be reasonably mobile. I'm supposed to return to the doctor in about two weeks to have the stitches taken out. The cases just started taking off when i was hospitalized, and in two weeks I worry the hospital will be swarming with positives I have to make my way through. The night before my surgery, I had to endure the sound of workers till 11 PM, building an isolation ward in anticipation of the influx of cases.

As nightmarish as this has been, I'm counting some blessings. I fell shortly after turning off a main highway, onto a concrete path. Had I fallen on the highway--and the nature of the dumb accident is that I could have--I might have been hit by a vehicle, possibly killed, certainly injured far worse. And if this had happened a few weeks later, I might have had trouble getting medical care, and even if I did get it, I might have exposed myself to a lot of people with the virus. And of course, this is a good time to be forced to stay inside your home all the time. Even if I were able to go out, I wouldn't be doing it much.

I guess if you were going to pick a good time for forced not being able to do much, you did pick a great time for that. Hope you heal quickly.


On the note of hospitals, my husband works at a VA hospital they had two patients tested over the weekend. They are waiting for results. Now being a VA hospital they will only get some of an influx of this from veterans. Also his boss has been told by her doctor to self quarantine for 2 weeks.

 

[jmdirt]

Another aspect to all of this is just who will benefit? Because there is usually a balancing act; one man's pain is the next man's pleasure. The concern is that the rich will get richer. Because large companies have the backing behind them to survive a lockdown that lasts for months, but what about small businesses? Many will not survive, and in the post CV world, many companies will have an even greater monopoly on things than they already do.

We are seeing now, enforced closures of small cafes and restaurants. But is this really necessary? Why not just reduce the tables by roughly half, hence having greater space between groups of people. At least this would ensure that small businesses still retain some of their usual income, and without necessarily increasing the spread of the disease greatly. Because we are seeing mass gatherings at airports, and at supermarkets, regardless. In the current climate, shouldn't there be restrictions placed on maximum number of people in a supermarket at any one time? At least if we were to be consistent with all of the other restrictions.

Whilst small eateries face financial ruin, eateries that are usually far less healthy for both us as a species, and the planet, 'restaurants' like McDonalds, are likely to not only survive, but thrive, because they have drive through facilities.

I agree, the rich will get richer (I'll stop there to honor the rules). There has already been talk of people waiting in their cars for their turn in the supermarket here. There is also a big social media campaign about buying from local small eateries and having it delivered to your home.

 

[jmdirt]

Not if you avoid them. And by some accounts this is an affluent concern: upscale stores are hit by mobs while lower income stores see the same modest purchase rates as always.

True, but while I can avoid them for now, others can't, and at some point I may not be able to either as the numbers grow. Plus, if we are trying to flatten the curve to help the medical people, the A holes at the gym aren't helping us. The affluent concern isn't the same here...the warehouse (less expensive) stores emptied out before the middle level stores started getting hit. I don't know about the upscale ones.

 

[jmdirt]

Speaking of which...I picked a very bad time to break a bone for the first time in my life while falling off my bike. I had to go to the E.R., then have surgery, again a first. I managed to get out of the hospital the day before the lockdown began where I am. I am almost totally helpless now, depending on family and friends to care for me, pissing in a bottle, shitting in a diaper (today, finally, a dishpan, hooray for small steps!), moving a few feet with great effort. I haven't been this physically helpless since I think I was 1-2 years old.

Older people like me are not only at greater risk for dying from the virus, but of course our bones mend really slowly. My goal now is just to heal to the point where i can use crutches, then I will be reasonably mobile. I'm supposed to return to the doctor in about two weeks to have the stitches taken out. The cases just started taking off when i was hospitalized, and in two weeks I worry the hospital will be swarming with positives I have to make my way through. The night before my surgery, I had to endure the sound of workers till 11 PM, building an isolation ward in anticipation of the influx of cases.

As nightmarish as this has been, I'm counting some blessings. I fell shortly after turning off a main highway, onto a concrete path. Had I fallen on the highway--and the nature of the dumb accident is that I could have--I might have been hit by a vehicle, possibly killed, certainly injured far worse. And if this had happened a few weeks later, I might have had trouble getting medical care, and even if I did get it, I might have exposed myself to a lot of people with the virus. And of course, this is a good time to be forced to stay inside your home all the time. Even if I were able to go out, I wouldn't be doing it much.

Get well man!

 

[Merckx index]

An old friend of mine posted this on FB::

You recall the cruise ship with infected passengers that was being held off San Francisco. We were later told it was allowed to dock in Oakland and all the passengers would be quarantined in military facilities. Well, not exactly. Passengers who needed to be isolated (I don't know if that means ill, or just exposed to someone who was ill) have been "distributed" around California. Here is part of an email from an MD in Monterey (a friend of a friend):

"Four passengers from the Grand Princess have been brought to the Asilomar Conference Center here in Monterey for their isolation because we do not have the ‘surge’ capacity to handle the 2500 passengers from the ship in any other way than to distribute them. You and I were told that they were all going to one of four military bases in the US, we were misinformed. Needless to say, Monterey County hospitals are just average community hospitals. They are not tertiary referral centers where the sickest of the sick go for treatment. So, their placement in our community is an indicator of just how dire our situation is and how dysfunctional our healthcare ’system’ is."

 

[Sestriere]

Why do you think that?

I posted this two days ago:

I think it's very likely that there were already many thousand cases in Italy when the outbreak was first noticed. People have developed tools to calculate the actual number of cases using the number of deaths and an assumed mortality rate (which is a big variable at this point in time) and data gathered from the Hubei outbreak.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

This author calculates between 24,000 and 140,000 infections in France for the 10.03. The official count of confirmed cases was roughly 1500 at that time. For Italy it's even more drastic. A couple of days after the outbreak was noticed for example, there were 17 deaths and 229 confirmed cases (25.02). With a mortality rate of 0.87 % (based on South Korea, unfortunately seems unreachable for Italy right now) you get around 13,500 cases for that very date! With a more realistic mortality of 3 % you still get 4000 cases when 229 were only officially reported.

Germany reported today around 5000 cases with 12 deaths. With South Koreas mortality this yields around 10,000 real cases as of today. So the number of reported cases seems to much better indicate the actual number of cases compared to Italy. This is why I think that the graph you plotted is misleading. Countries with high case numbers relative to deaths like Norway, Switzerland and Germany probably have a better understanding of the situation in their countries and could be better off since they applied strict measures to limit public life earlier - even though purely looking at (official) case numbers this may not seem to be the case.

All of this of course assumes that the reported deaths are based on the same standards.
Lastly, using the same spreadsheet than above, Italy's true case numbers are likely to be around 400,000 at the moment.

Edit: All the numbers above are based on the assumption that the number of true cases are growing exponentially. For the most recent numbers there is reason to believe that this is not the case anymore for places where significant restrictions to public life have been put into place (Reported cases will likely grow further for two weeks). This is based on experiences from the Hubei outbreak. Italy case numbers are thus likely to be lower than 400,000 but still over 100,000.