Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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Unchained

Sep 5, 2016
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Early Chinese positive patients had a discharge milestone of 2 negative test results in 18 days before discharge. The sick were apparently cured or on the mend enough,w 2 long term(@?) Negative results, discharged.
many of those who tested out into the population are again testing positive for the virus,w a variation on severity for the second time around.
Most epidemiological data suggest that the virus in this strain will be reoccurring for 4- 5 more cycles.
so every fall expect Corona to come calling.
The seasonal flu comparison is helpful and fast..move the decimal point..Covid is 10x more deadly,w limited short term data.
Obviously..speaking for me only..I care if the person standing in front or behind me has TB or Polio..I care if they just traveled yesterday from an Ebola outbreak hot zone..
I care if they have something infectious because of a sexual activity that can get on my pant leg or that I can get by getting the 1's.5's or 10's that they just gave to the cashier,barista, bartender or bike mechanic.
If my clothes are off I hope my partner would disclose what a doctor told them before we get busy.
Incredible that in a country of 325 million mobile fools,swiping our phones for food,rides and sex we would not want to know the Covid status of who we are trading with..car rides,pizza or body fluids..
insane that this is not a priority.
Mardi Gras was a swap meet of sorts and public officials had to weigh public health of the weight of a full cash register..
in Mexico,they are out of disinfectant wipes,alcohol and pretty low on eggs..everything relatively stocked..
San Diego supply levels will be seen early Tuesday when I cross.
 
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Keram

Oct 1, 2015
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aphronesis said:
www.statnews.com

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

A fiasco in the making? As the #coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data.
www.statnews.com www.statnews.com
Click to expand...
Interesting article, but I am incline to strict rules (temporarily) , because examples from Italy and Spain show us that we cant underestimate this virus. We see unprecedent collaps of health systems in whealthiest countries. This need to be take seriously. I am afraid USA and UK are next to collapse.
 
aphronesis

aphronesis

Jul 30, 2011
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I don’t agree with some of its conclusions. And at 11 days out some claims are wrong. But it is affecting policy debates, mostly I think, to avoid wrestling with the implications of greater necessary societal change to avoid destructive collapse of old symbolic models anyway.
 
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Chris Gadsden

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Oct 28, 2019
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gregrowlerson said:
However, pain is of course increasing due to economic hardship, and over time there will be an increase in suicides, general violence.

And where do we draw the line? Why do we not create any social restrictions at all during a normal flu season, yet create enormous social restrictions during the corona virus? If 500,000 people potentially die due to the corona virus do we care and do everything in our power to stop that, but if 50,000 people die due to a standard flu season we say "Sorry, that's too bad Grandma; I wasn't going to give up my sports and concerts just so that I might not pass on the flu to you". Both of these examples are quite extreme, and that is sort of my point. Where is the middle ground?
Click to expand...

You can not ask that question in the USA without big repercussions.
 
nevele neves

nevele neves

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Jun 3, 2019
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Unchained said:
Early Chinese positive patients had a discharge milestone of 2 negative test results in 18 days before discharge. The sick were apparently cured or on the mend enough,w 2 long term(@?) Negative results, discharged.
many of those who tested out into the population are again testing positive for the virus,w a variation on severity for the second time around.
Most epidemiological data suggest that the virus in this strain will be reoccurring for 4- 5 more cycles.
so every fall expect Corona to come calling.
The seasonal flu comparison is helpful and fast..move the decimal point..Covid is 10x more deadly,w limited short term data.
Obviously..speaking for me only..I care if the person standing in front or behind me has TB or Polio..I care if they just traveled yesterday from an Ebola outbreak hot zone..
I care if they have something infectious because of a sexual activity that can get on my pant leg or that I can get by getting the 1's.5's or 10's that they just gave to the cashier,barista, bartender or bike mechanic.
If my clothes are off I hope my partner would disclose what a doctor told them before we get busy.
Incredible that in a country of 325 million mobile fools,swiping our phones for food,rides and sex we would not want to know the Covid status of who we are trading with..car rides,pizza or body fluids..
insane that this is not a priority.
Mardi Gras was a swap meet of sorts and public officials had to weigh public health of the weight of a full cash register..
in Mexico,they are out of disinfectant wipes,alcohol and pretty low on eggs..everything relatively stocked..
San Diego supply levels will be seen early Tuesday when I cross.
Click to expand...
Mardi Gras was business as usual due to many not taking the threat of the Virus serious enough. But not unlike NYC - Just for an example in NYC the health commissioner and health council members were #lunarnewyear and telling people not to fall into the misinformation. because it did not fit their own political and financial agenda.

Also on this thread there is skepticism that the virus might have infected anyone here during the Feb time frame. Their post makes that statement. Why you might ask - I guess the answer is because they said so.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1241993445075451904
https://twitter.com/x/status/1242805590910476288
 
D

djpbaltimore

Jun 9, 2014
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D

djpbaltimore

Jun 9, 2014
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Merckx index said:
Where do you get this from? I don't see any recording of viral burdens in the paper. It's a binary outcome: positive or negative. In the supplementary data, they do list CT values for PCR, with > 35 cycles considered negative. I'm not sure why some values are just listed positive, while others numerically, but if you just consider the CT numbers, the average for both controls and experimentals is roughly 25.

If you're going to bring cherry-picking into the argument, it should also be noted that the experimental group a) had fewer asymptomatics; b) more lower respiratory infections; and c) was older on average.

Just to be clear, I'm not pushing this drug. But this study is typical of many publications that appear during a medically urgent situation, when for sake of time, the usual more rigorous standards are relaxed. The Chinese study that was later used as evidence against HCQ really wasn't much better. As long as the drugs have known uses, IOW, have already been tested for safety, there isn't a lot to lose by trying them. (Except, it seems, if someone gets confused by the name of the drug).
Click to expand...
I have posted two threads about this paper. If you want to read them, go ahead. You are right that I should 've wrote viral RNA. I assume it would be proportional to viral burden, but that was not measured.

Why was this trial not randomized? The study from China was limited, but it was randomized. Big difference.

Medical urgency? What is the rush to publish a study like this? It doesn't change the situation on the ground. Chloroquine was always going to be tried in real trials due to preclinical studies with SARs. 24 hour peer review benefits one group of people: the authors of the study. I initially thought it was sloppy, but now tend to believe that is a naive perspective.

forbetterscience.com

Chloroquine genius Didier Raoult to save the world from COVID-19

As COVID19 pandemic rages on, French microbiologist Didier Raoult offers a cure. President Trump is convinced, but is Raoult’s research reliable, here and in general?
forbetterscience.com
 
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djpbaltimore

Jun 9, 2014
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Cookster15 said:
I thought I was clear? I never wrote China has no active cases. The issue is the number of cases is barely rising. Evidence is easy to find just Google the official global case counts. China's has hardly moved for weeks now. As for not going away without a vaccine I'm not sure about that either. Previous pandemics went away without vaccines. The problem is how many people we lose waiting or maybe find what China's secret is.
Click to expand...
China has mitigated their outbreak through draconian policy. That is their secret. If you think they can hide a massive current outbreak the size of the USA, UK, Italy, etc....

Which pandemic went away without vaccines? None with the characteristics of COVID-19.
 
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Cookster15

Cookster15

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May 14, 2011
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djpbaltimore said:
China has mitigated their outbreak through draconian policy. That is their secret. If you think they can hide a massive current outbreak the size of the USA, UK, Italy, etc....

Which pandemic went away without vaccines? None with the characteristics of COVID-19.
Click to expand...
I simply do not believe China has stopped the spread of the virus in its tracks draconian policies or not. I think its propaganda. As for the pandemic going away, there is already emerging evidence that the virus is starting to lose its strength. There is hope. We will see.
 
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nevele neves

nevele neves

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jmdirt said:
Could you clarify what you mean here maybe with some support?
Click to expand...
I read somewhere about temperature changes that are helping to slow or burn out the virus.

I will look it up and try to post once I find it. Nothing but time on the web right now. Was out earlier today got a Bief De Chorizo with tomato and onion salad. Its a little sad out on the streets. The place we have rented has bicycles and a full gym on site. So we are getting good exercise. Just sad to not see fellow humans.
 
Koronin

Koronin

Oct 14, 2017
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nevele neves said:
I read somewhere about temperature changes that are helping to slow or burn out the virus.

I will look it up and try to post once I find it. Nothing but time on the web right now. Was out earlier today got a Bief De Chorizo with tomato and onion salad. Its a little sad out on the streets. The place we have rented has bicycles and a full gym on site. So we are getting good exercise. Just sad to not see fellow humans.
Click to expand...

I wonder if it's more UV than temperature? The warmer it is people are more likely to be outside.
 
postmanhat

postmanhat

Oct 21, 2012
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Keram said:
Interesting article, but I am incline to strict rules (temporarily) , because examples from Italy and Spain show us that we cant underestimate this virus. We see unprecedent collaps of health systems in whealthiest countries. This need to be take seriously. I am afraid USA and UK are next to collapse.
Click to expand...


In The UK and US, I think it is the hospitals in the larger, densely populated cities that will come under strain. In The UK it is London and the greater Birmingham area that are seeing the greatest concentration of cases. We are 'lucky' in that we can learn from what has happened in Italy etc, and so new field hospitals are being built in these cities in concert and conference venues. Also, the additional production of ventilators and PPE should coincide with before, or at the peak here. I think it will be extremely bad here, but it is possible that the system will cope, given the extra time to prepare.

The mortality rates seem to be accelerating most sharply in The UK, Netherlands and Belgium. It can't be a coincidence that these are the three most densely populated countries in Europe, and suggest that virus might already be quite widespread
 
J

jmdirt

Dec 6, 2013
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Does the temperature and/or humidity argument hold water? Do places that are warm and/or humid most of the time have flu? Will they (do they) have C19?

I'm not sure if the 'people are outside more' argument is very valid either since schools don't move their classes out, business don't move their offices out, bars/restaurants might have small patios but hey are still mostly inside, etc. A lot of people are inside eight+ hours a day no matter what the weather is.
 
Koronin

Koronin

Oct 14, 2017
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postmanhat said:
In The UK and US, I think it is the hospitals in the larger, densely populated cities that will come under strain. In The UK it is London and the greater Birmingham area that are seeing the greatest concentration of cases. We are 'lucky' in that we can learn from what has happened in Italy etc, and so new field hospitals are being built in these cities in concert and conference venues. Also, the additional production of ventilators and PPE should coincide with before, or at the peak here. I think it will be extremely bad here, but it is possible that the system will cope, given the extra time to prepare.

The mortality rates seem to be accelerating most sharply in The UK, Netherlands and Belgium. It can't be a coincidence that these are the three most densely populated countries in Europe, and suggest that virus might already be quite widespread
Click to expand...


There are many rural areas in the US that don't have hospitals at all which will complicate problems in some areas.
 
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