Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[movingtarget]

Apparently a Blue Jay player who had interactions with the Phillie players is suspected of having Coronavirus and they have closed their facility. The Tampa hockey team is also closing their facility after an outbreak among players and staff. Florida is the canary in the coal mine. If we fail to heed the warning, we have no one to blame but ourselves. It is not going to go away on its own and a return to normalcy is not remotely possible.

Highlights the problems all sports will face especially the body contact sports. It only took one infection to shut down the NBA ...........what about the return ?

 

[BlueRoads]

After having about 300 new infections a day in Germany for a while, there are now already more than 1000 in a meat factory. Mostly people from Romania and other eastern European countries working there. Probably rather fit guys, nonetheless it's a shame. Good thing for the general public: those workers are usually staying in a "bubble" already. But yes, that's our version of migrant workers doing tough jobs for very little money.

 

[Koronin]

After having about 300 new infections a day in Germany for a while, there are now already more than 1000 in a meat factory. Mostly people from Romania and other eastern European countries working there. Probably rather fit guys, nonetheless it's a shame. Good thing for the general public: those workers are usually staying in a "bubble" already. But yes, that's our version of migrant workers doing tough jobs for very little money.

Hopefully most if not all recover from it. From what is being reported it's appearing that the vast majority who get the virus to have at least some immunity to it for awhile. They still don't know how long (obviously) but there is proof it's there for at least awhile and there are reports that it is now believed that immunity should last at least 3 to 6 months if not longer. Thus hopefully buying more time to get more treatments approved.

 

[Sciatic]

Sorry that it is only in Flemish, but google Translator works well here:
news1
news2
Its about a study of 1600 Covid patients in Netherlands and Belgium who were not in hospital. So they only looked at "mild" cases. After 3 months only 7% say that they have fully recovered, 27% say they still are in poor health!


I would guess that there is a sampling bias. However long term impact of Covid 19 seems to be a real problem.

Seems like this could be a big deal for cyclists and other athletes who get even mild cases of COVID, since being just a little off of peak health can make a difference in performance.

 

[Jagartrott]

After having about 300 new infections a day in Germany for a while, there are now already more than 1000 in a meat factory. Mostly people from Romania and other eastern European countries working there. Probably rather fit guys, nonetheless it's a shame. Good thing for the general public: those workers are usually staying in a "bubble" already. But yes, that's our version of migrant workers doing tough jobs for very little money.

A little over 1000 positive cases on c. 3200 people tested at Tönnies (the company). Nearly 4000 workers are still awaiting their results. Also elsewhere in Germany and the UK, meat processing companies have been places of mass contagion. I thought that the recent outbreak in Beijing was also related to meat storage or processing. If the original outbreak indeed started at a wet market, that's another connection to meat. Perhaps some things need to change...

 

[Unchained]

Weird stuff everywhere I look. Imperial County which borders San Diego County is a hot bed..helicopter transport of patients from full hospitals..the U.S. sees Imperial County as a farming,generally poor area but because it borders Mexicali ..it really is a area of over @1.2 million people..Covid positive results,10x higher than Lo s Angeles.
East County San Diego is now in phase 3 opening,which includes bars and restaurants. Places that @10 days ago were take out only are now dine in also..Eastbound..which has a great food,large selection of beers and booze,will take reservations for time to manipulate tables for ample distancing,also San Diego is pulling out the stops to fast track permitting of outdoor space as overflow - normal business areas..so Eastbound has a converted parking area as outdoor seating..everything looks to be working..couple of other places look like disease dens..no dancing permitted, pool tables can be used one not the one next to it..and the bomb..you need to bring your own stick!!
At a place I visited 1-2 times a month,especially during Monday night football..people are on top of one another..bar tenders not masked or washing hands people openly commenting,complaining about regulations.
Mexico, Canada and US pushing border opening date to July, 22nd at the earliest,and subject to change.
I have seen multiple closures of business in Ensenada,Tijuana and San Diego..and because they didn't reopen when permitted I am assuming are closed permanently.
I don't think that there is political will for another shut down..and my limited,non scientific behavior observations would have me guess that the Covid community contamination is going to be long lasting and will be something we learn to factor into our existence..reports of all kinds,including my own experience stating large scale resistance to wearing masks..

 

[Forever The Best]

Off-topic but, it is utterly ridiculous that universities do not think about their students during these times. Some of the online exams of some courses do not even give students a chance to get a high grade, pathetic really. It is almost like they are trying to screw ths students, but then again, when you have a course coordinator who blames students for a postponement of the exam due to snow in the previous course ( he was the coordinator of the previous one, the prerequisite as well ) nothing is surprising anymore.

 

[Merckx index]

Weird stuff everywhere I look. Imperial County which borders San Diego County is a hot bed..helicopter transport of patients from full hospitals..the U.S. sees Imperial County as a farming,generally poor area but because it borders Mexicali ..it really is a area of over @1.2 million people..Covid positive results,10x higher than Lo s Angeles.

Wow, WTF is going on with Imperial County? It has one of the highest case rates in the country, higher than some of the counties composing NYC. Yet it has less than .2% the population density of those counties! Even if you multiply the official Imperial population by 6-7 x as you suggest, you still get one of biggest outliers in terms of case rate and population density in the world. I assume some of that is from Indian reservations, which generally have some of the highest case rates in the U.S.

And yet, MLB is now considering playing the season (if there is one) in a bubble in SoCal. There was a plan at one point to play all games in FL and AZ, but the spike in cases in those states has made the league wary. At least some parts of CA are also spiking, so I'm not sure why MLB would consider that area, except that there are three major league stadiums in the south of the state, and numerous college facilities. Multiple teams are now reporting new cases among players or staff, and have reacted by closing their spring training sites. Now it's looking less likely that there will be a season at all. It could have been underway for a while now if the owners hadn't dicked around, but that's another story.

 

[Koronin]

It's amazingly insane how many people just refuse to wear masks and the positive cases prove it. My husband is sick with symptoms of covid, yet 2 actual covid tests and 1 antibody test all negative. He can't get the congestion that has gotten into his chest to clear up. Been to the doctor, gotten antibiotics which helped a little, but not fully. No clue what he has. We're at a loss. Both of his covid tests have been at his job because someone there had/have it so both times it's been let's test the entire staff.

 

[Merckx index]

From what is being reported it's appearing that the vast majority who get the virus to have at least some immunity to it for awhile. They still don't know how long (obviously) but there is proof it's there for at least awhile and there are reports that it is now believed that immunity should last at least 3 to 6 months if not longer. Thus hopefully buying more time to get more treatments approved.

Some bad news on that front. Two recent studies conclude that antibodies may not last that long:

One of the studies found that 10 percent of nearly 1,500 COVID-positive patients registered undetectable antibody levels within weeks of first showing symptoms, while the other of 74 patients found they typically lost their antibodies two to three months after recovering from the infection, especially among those who tested positive but were asymptomatic.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/studies-report-rapid-loss-of-covid-19-antibodies-67650

Actually, the second study found that 40% of asyptomatic individuals had no detectable Abs within 2-3 months, while only 13% of symptomatic individuals lacked detectable Abs. The authors are apparently projecting on the basis of these results that the Abs don't last more than a few months in most people, but of course more direct evidence is not yet possible, since for most recovered people, the time since infection is at best 5-6 months.

And here’s a devastating critique of America’s response to the pandemic:

To compare each country’s responses to the pandemic on a consistent basis, we turned to the work of an Oxford University team that has constructed a stringency index based on 13 policy responses (lockdowns, border closings, tests, etc.) to measure how strongly each country responded over time. The Oxford index shows that 14 days from the date of the 15th confirmed case in each country — a vital early window for action — the U.S. response to the outbreak lagged behind the others by miles. The U.S. stringency score of 5.7 at that point was 25% of Australia’s (23), 23% of Germany’s (25), 18% of Singapore’s (32), and only 15% of South Korea’s (38).

Due to exponential viral spread, our delay in action was devastating. In the wake of the U.S. response, 117,858 Americans died in the four months following the first 15 confirmed cases. After an equivalent period, Germany suffered only 8,863 casualties. Scaling up the German population of 83.7 million to America’s 331 million, a U.S.-sized Germany would have suffered 35,049 Covid-19 deaths. So if the U.S. had acted as effectively as Germany, 70% of U.S. coronavirus deaths might have been prevented.

Seventy percent, though, is the most conservative estimate. Scaled-up versions of South Korea, Australia, and Singapore would have experienced 1,758, 1,324, and 1,358 deaths, respectively, in the four months after 15 cases were confirmed in each country. Had we handled the coronavirus as effectively as any of these three countries, roughly 99% of the 117,858 U.S. Covid-19 deaths might have been averted.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/19/faster-response-prevented-most-us-covid-19-deaths/

 

[Koronin]

Some bad news on that front. Two recent studies conclude that antibodies may not last that long:



https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/studies-report-rapid-loss-of-covid-19-antibodies-67650

And here’s a devastating critique of America’s response to the pandemic:



https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/19/faster-response-prevented-most-us-covid-19-deaths/

It definitely appears that asymptomatic have much lower antibody resistance to it. It is appearing that there is more antibody resistance among those with symptoms. However, this all proves that we need treatments ASAP and need treatments that are readily available and available for people who aren't bad enough to be hospitalized. I'd hoped that people who have recovered would have some immunity long enough for more treatments to be developed.

 

[jmdirt]

Idaho is pretty much 'open for business' but downtown Boise restaurants/bars are making the decision to close on their own because people are being irresponsible, and (nearing) 100 new cases are tied directly to downtown goers. Also two brew pubs (not downtown) have decided to go back to take out (food and growlers) for the same reason.

EDIT: Update: one more 'popular' restaurant decided that patrons weren't being safe for each other so they decided to go back to take out.

I think that unchained is correct, this is just going to be part of our existence until it runs its course (and/or kills us all).

 

[Koronin]

Idaho is pretty much 'open for business' but downtown Boise restaurants/bars are making the decision to close on their own because people are being irresponsible, and (nearing) 100 new cases are tied directly to downtown goers. Also two brew pubs (not downtown) have decided to go back to take out (food and growlers) for the same reason.

I think that unchained is correct, this is just going to be part of our existence until it runs its course (and/or kills us all).

Unless it's going to become weaker as it's around longer or we find a vaccine it'll end up killing everyone.

 

[djpbaltimore]

While antibodies are important especially for sterilizing immunity, I think it should be stated that people who develop antibodies almost certainly are going to retain long lived memory B and T cells even after the antibody levels wane. These cells can work in tandem to make antibody upon reinfection that is quicker, higher in magnitude, and often better quality (affinity). It might not be sterilizing immunity, but it should tilt the balance toward preventing disease. This is often what vaccines are meant to accomplish, especially ones where you get a booster. I think we will see significant positive scientific advances that change the long term outlook, but it will take time.

 

[Koronin]

While antibodies are important especially for sterilizing immunity, I think it should be stated that people who develop antibodies almost certainly are going to retain long lived memory B and T cells even after the antibody levels wane. These cells can work in tandem to make antibody upon reinfection that is quicker, higher in magnitude, and often better quality (affinity). It might not be sterilizing immunity, but it should tilt the balance toward preventing disease. This is often what vaccines are meant to accomplish, especially ones where you get a booster. I think we will see significant positive scientific advances that change the long term outlook, but it will take time.

So if you get and develop antibodies you should get the B and T cells which means if you get reinfected (which is definitely possible at this point) it shouldn't be as serious? I think I read a report were they were saying that people who did get it a second time either weren't contagious or weren't as contagious. That should be it's not as strong?

I agree with you that we should see significant scientific advances. Mostly because those typically happen when it's needed.

 

[Merckx index]

Anyone ever hear of Oura rings? The claim is that they can signal that you're infected several days before symptoms appear, based on changes in certain physiological parameters. Sounds over the top, but apparently NBA players are considering wearing them.

 

[Koronin]

Anyone ever hear of Oura rings? The claim is that they can signal that you're infected several days before symptoms appear, based on changes in certain physiological parameters. Sounds over the top, but apparently NBA players are considering wearing them.

First time I heard of them was some article on the NBA considering them. Saw the article yesterday.

 

[Nomad]

It's amazingly insane how many people just refuse to wear masks and the positive cases prove it. My husband is sick with symptoms of covid, yet 2 actual covid tests and 1 antibody test all negative. He can't get the congestion that has gotten into his chest to clear up. Been to the doctor, gotten antibiotics which helped a little, but not fully. No clue what he has. We're at a loss. Both of his covid tests have been at his job because someone there had/have it so both times it's been let's test the entire staff.

With two COVID-19 tests and an antibody test being negative are you sure that it's COVID and not something else? I have asthma & allergies and have gotten bad cases of bronchitis during the summer over the years. Lots of congestion, respiratory distress, slight fever, etc. I can train through it at low intensity & very easy workouts (no racing) - and it usually takes about 2-3 weeks to completely clear up.

And it is insane how many people just won't wear masks. I was watching some footage of the Trump rally and couldn't believe how many people weren't wearing masks while packed together outside at the entrance gate and later inside the arena - absolutely crazy!

I mentioned upthread that there's one fairly large municipality next to the city that I live in that passed legislation last month requiring the wearing of masks, but yet I hardly see anyone wearing them as I commute through this city daily. In doing some research on the legislation, the City Council did not add an enforcement provision because the police chief expressed how difficult it would be to enforce. So, it's nothing more than a recommendation with no power to enforce. Lol. And I see California has a state-wide mandate for masks, but some law enforcement agencies are already saying they're not going to enforce it. Unless a mask mandate will be enforced, Americans simply won't wear them.

In CA: Not all police will enforce mask order, departments say

California has a new mask mandate, but who will enforce it? And renewed calls to remove a statue of Father Junipero Serra prompt the\u00a0community to take action. Plus, Black leaders reflect on what Juneteenth means this particular year.

www.google.com

 

[Merckx index]

And it is insane how many people just won't wear masks.

If you want to get into the head of one of these people, here are some posts from someone in another forum:

Constantly getting mixed messages. It is hard to know what to think.

In my area (upstate NY) I not only know 0 people who have tested + for coronavirus… I don’t even know anybody who knows anybody who has tested +. I understand that just means I have been lucky. But it makes it hard to feel any sense of this being a threat.

Restaurants here are re-opening. We are attending mass regularly. My son’s 10U travel team has practiced like normal throughout the shutdowns – never missed a beat (albeit no games except unofficial scrimmages). Barbers were officially “closed” but we just went to their houses and they have cut our hair in their garages (they just re-opened last week officially).

Nobody I know wears those silly face masks. We have been holding pool parties, BBQs, and treating it like nothing is happening. And nothing bad has happened to anybody.

I plan to live my life as though there is nothing to fear. And yet… No sports at all – possibly all year and perhaps next year as well. As far as I am concerned, COVID is only a threat to professional athletes.

Did you wear a mask during flu season last year?

I know flu does not kill as many people – but it kills plenty…

What fatality rate is low enough that masks are not important to you?

I see face masks as an arbitrary thing people submitted to. And once you go down that road you see non-mask-wearers as stupid, evil, or both.

If I am right about you, it makes me happy that my choice to ignore COVID undoes all the work you do to fight against it.

I think the over-reaction has been absurd. And I am not going to fall for it.

I have tried those masks. I struggle to breathe and have a constant gag reflex with one on.

Plus – nobody else is wearing them. It seems silly for me to suffer wearing one of those things when nobody else has one. Unless most people are wearing one, what point in there is me suffering through it.

In this high heat and humidity, there is no way I can have a mask like that on my face. No way I can do it.

I believe “facial coverings” are nothing more than a badge showing submission. And I don’t want anything to do with them.

If you think the human brain can focus exclusively on messages from virologists and tune out the daily experience around us, you are wrong.

Everyday I see thousands of people in my town without any masks – going to mass, parties, graduations, and to their offices and businesses. No apparent concern about a virus. AND – nobody I know even knows a single person who has COVID. How do you tune that out?...

Everybody in my hometown and in my line of work is acting as if life is 100% NORMAL. It is not just me being a jerk.

Now, maybe I am also a jerk. Granted. But my reaction to the virus is 100% in line with what I see around me everyday.

If you lived here and didn’t check the news… You would have no idea there was a pandemic!

 

[hrotha]

People who see basic precautions as a sign of personal weakness or cowardice are simply morons.

 

[jmdirt]

Anyone ever hear of Oura rings? The claim is that they can signal that you're infected several days before symptoms appear, based on changes in certain physiological parameters. Sounds over the top, but apparently NBA players are considering wearing them.

I thought that they were a (not very good) activity/HR tracker.

EDIT: I see that they can track temperature, but I'm not sure how accurate the temperature in your finger is.

 

[Sciatic]

People who see basic precautions as a sign of personal weakness or cowardice are simply morons.

I think young folks (teens and 20’s) in the U.S. who don’t wear them have that sense of youth invulnerability, which might be further inflated by data showing they are less like to get seriously ill if they get it. But it is crazy and absolutely moronic that mask-wearing is now a political litmus test, so not only do people of all ages refuse to wear a mask but also condemn or harass folks who are wearing them. That is so F*#KED

 

[Sciatic]

There’s this (quote from today’s Washington Post:
“Masks are not for one’s own good, but for the public good. It would be easy to explain this lapse on this country’s tradition of rugged individualism. But sometimes cruel selfishness gums up our understanding of personal freedom.”

 

[jmdirt]

RE: Mask Wearing:

"Its hard to breath"- try other face coverings. I have three different 'styles' of snot blockers, a tube style, a two layer cotton with a filter pocket, and a three layer (cotton, foam, poly). The foam gives that one some structural integrity so it has an 'air pocket' and doesn't touch my lips. It also fits around my nose and chin much better. The tube style one is tight on my lips and goes into my mouth when I breath in (that one is back to being a neck gator). The two layer cotton is somewhere in between for fit and breath-ability.

"The straps bother my ears"- try around the head straps, get an ear relief band, get softer ear bands.

Excuses are like aholes! From a cycling standpoint, can you imagine a cyclist saying 'that seat doesn't feel good to my ars so I'm just not going to use one'? No, you try another seat and/or change the angle or height or for/aft... Add in that them not using a seat isn't going to rub everyone's' arses...

 

[Unchained]

Off-topic but, it is utterly ridiculous that universities do not think about their students during these times. Some of the online exams of some courses do not even give students a chance to get a high grade, pathetic really. It is almost li the previous one, the prerequisite as well ) nothing is surprising anymore.

Wow!! Universities better think of themselves and the " value added " from the campus experience. 100's of communities in the US are going to be completely devastated in every way university. Many students and their families are going to do some harsh college calculations.
Many communities rely on the entire economic sphere of the school..everything..markets,gas stations,bars,restaurants,hair cuts,mechanics..police,fire,health care..everything.
America better hurry the F up on safety.
if the US pushes the rushed decision of higher education into American kitchens and living rooms,kitchen table..all is lost!
Harvard and MIT will probably figure something out..but if American students and families can't clearly,crystal clear see the difference in money spent for online or in person education it's over..given everything that has unfolded, w restriction on who can study, I would say that if Covid contracts our college classes,restricts people from attending in person..many many people are going to rethink high tuition,outrageous rents and other expenses.
And w Covid threat ever present..how can universities charge the same prices for online or in person offerings?
College towns w no college students or super shrinky dink campuses will fail