Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Merckx index]

A person knowledgeable enough to determine nucleotide similarity between human and virus would be knowledgeable enough to know that this string of identical nucleotides has zero implications for the PCR tests.

You would think so. I learned about this from some anonymous poster in another forum, and s/he also didn't know that: a) there are dozens, maybe hundreds, of primers in use, so even if one kit could hypothetically detect human DNA, most would not; and b) of course, two primers are needed, so a single primer with a sequence capable of hybridizing to human DNA would not help.

However, I just learned that this was mentioned in a WHO document on primer design. It was an actual proposed primer. AFAIK, they don't point out the identity with human sequence. Maybe a Mikovits type found this, and passed it on to someone not familiar with the details.

Interesting that we now have this article, but not scientific proof.

Sweden does not have herd immunity. Even Stockholm is far short of that, let alone the rest of the country. Notice the article says, "a form of herd immunity". What they presumably mean is that if a substantial % of people have been infected and recovered, they spread of the virus will be reduced. The same phenomenon is probably occurring in NYC, where I'd bet that a larger proportion of people have been infected than in Stockholm.

CP lacks that standard partly because it has been used so ubiquitously under compassionate use. 35,000 people have gotten it according to reports, but there has been no control group to compare the end points to.

It seems that all they did was compare early vs. late treatment, but did not compare these groups with no treatment.

 

[Koronin]

You would think so. I learned about this from some anonymous poster in another forum, and s/he also didn't know that: a) there are dozens, maybe hundreds, of primers in use, so even if one kit could hypothetically detect human DNA, most would not; and b) of course, two primers are needed, so a single primer with a sequence capable of hybridizing to human DNA would not help.

However, I just learned that this was mentioned in a WHO document on primer design. It was an actual proposed primer. AFAIK, they don't point out the identity with human sequence. Maybe a Mikovits type found this, and passed it on to someone not familiar with the details.



Sweden does not have herd immunity. Even Stockholm is far short of that, let alone the rest of the country. Notice the article says, "a form of herd immunity". What they presumably mean is that if a substantial % of people have been infected and recovered, they spread of the virus will be reduced. The same phenomenon is probably occurring in NYC, where I'd bet that a larger proportion of people have been infected than in Stockholm.



It seems that all they did was compare early vs. late treatment, but did not compare these groups with no treatment.

I actually read something earlier today on NYC and infection rates. Obviously it depends on which burough you're talking about as to infection rate. It was saying Manhattan has the lowest antibody testing numbers at under 20% while some boroughs are closer to 40% with some communities over 50%.

 

[movingtarget]

Case of man reinfected with coronavirus stokes immunity fears

Hong Kong case leads scientists to doubt development of antibodies in previous patients, but other experts say it is no cause for alarm

www.theguardian.com

 

[jmdirt]

In Sydney in April we had our police escorting people off our beaches when we were were under level 3 lockdown. Up here now under reduced restrictions we are all watching the Victorian Covid-19 second wave disaster nervously. Because of the ineptitude of the Victorian government in mishandling quarantine and contact tracing Covid-19 has rebounded. Several spot fires in Sydney were traced to persons bringing the virus from Melbourne.

Because of a problem they created, the Victorian government now hopes to deflect to persons not wearing masks or the latest ploy which is to deflect blame to the Federal government run aged care facilities. In Sydney I've noticed more people wearing masks in public but I hope we don't give over zealous police an excuse to harass normally law abiding people over something as benign as not wearing a mask in public.

..otherwise know as spreading disease that could kill others...is that benign? I know, just wash my hands.

 

[movingtarget]

..otherwise know as spreading disease that could kill others...is that benign? I know, just wash my hands.

Most people seem okay with the mask protocol in Australia. There have been fines but not that many especially in the big cities. Some stores have also made it mandatory with sometimes comical results or tiresome..........depending on your frame of mind ! Theatres have just reopened and mask wearing will be mandatory and only so many tickets are being sold per performance so social distancing can occur.

 

[yaco]

In Sydney in April we had our police escorting people off our beaches when we were were under level 3 lockdown. Up here now under reduced restrictions we are all watching the Victorian Covid-19 second wave disaster nervously. Because of the ineptitude of the Victorian government in mishandling quarantine and contact tracing Covid-19 has rebounded. Several spot fires in Sydney were traced to persons bringing the virus from Melbourne.

Because of a problem they created, the Victorian government now hopes to deflect to persons not wearing masks or the latest ploy which is to deflect blame to the Federal government run aged care facilities. In Sydney I've noticed more people wearing masks in public but I hope we don't give over zealous police an excuse to harass normally law abiding people over something as benign as not wearing a mask in public.

Are you serious - Sydney just had two security guards from quarantine hotels catch the virus - Hopefully Sydney will be able to contain the spread of the virus - Anyway, Australia made a mistake with imported cases of COVID19 - All these people and there were only small numbers should have been sent to hospitals for increased infection control, especially seeing Australia had stages where hospitals were near empty because elective surgery was cancelled - Lessons to be learnt.

Aged Care Homes - Australia like most countries have failed the test whenit comes to protecting old people in aged care homes - The FACT is that ofthe cases in Aged Care Homes in Victoria between 93 to 95% occurred in privately run aged care homes - Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.

 

[yaco]

Most people seem okay with the mask protocol in Australia. There have been fines but not that many especially in the big cities. Some stores have also made it mandatory with sometimes comical results or tiresome..........depending on your frame of mind ! Theatres have just reopened and mask wearing will be mandatory and only so many tickets are being sold per performance so social distancing can occur.

You need to tell the full story - Only the state of Victoria has mandated the use of masks.

 

[movingtarget]

You need to tell the full story - Only the state of Victoria has mandated the use of masks.

True but some of the bigger stores including outside Victoria also have changed their mask policy. I think Sydney was expecting people to wear masks in some of the suburbs targeted for testing but it wasn't mandatory. On public transport it's assumed that wise heads will prevail. I have noticed school kids getting on and off public transport with masks on.

 

[movingtarget]

Spain warned of dire impact of second coronavirus lockdown

Businesses and psychologists say country is still reeling from its earlier confinement

www.theguardian.com

 

[Jagartrott]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1297116978964905984

 

[dusty red roads]

Interesting!

Meanwhile, back in Japan:

Japan startup to begin human clinical tests for COVID-19 drug in 2021

The prospective drug could also be developed for treatment of Middle East respiratory syndrome and severe acute respiratory syndrome.

www.japantimes.co.jp

Also - numbers are down again, but will likely rise again in the coming week now that the big summer break is over.

 

[movingtarget]

Bora-Hansgrohe withdraw from Bretagne Classic due to positive COVID-19 test

Unnamed rider tests positive on morning of the race

www.cyclingnews.com

 

[djpbaltimore]

You would think so. I learned about this from some anonymous poster in another forum, and s/he also didn't know that: a) there are dozens, maybe hundreds, of primers in use, so even if one kit could hypothetically detect human DNA, most would not; and b) of course, two primers are needed, so a single primer with a sequence capable of hybridizing to human DNA would not help.

However, I just learned that this was mentioned in a WHO document on primer design. It was an actual proposed primer. AFAIK, they don't point out the identity with human sequence. Maybe a Mikovits type found this, and passed it on to someone not familiar with the details.

It seems that all they did was compare early vs. late treatment, but did not compare these groups with no treatment.

Yeah, I just noticed that the assay document pops up if you google the sequence. The protocol includes a RNA purification step by spin column, so that should also lessen the threat of DNA carryover prior to the RT and PCR reactions. I still wouldn't use a primer like that.

I also saw that they did a comparison of groups split depending on how much IgG was in the plasma. That is a decent way of working around the impediment of not having a control group. The top line numbers look promising, but you can see that the p value is not great, which is probably the reason Fauci and Collins were against the EUA. The evidence is just not super compelling. It probably has some benefit, but the bar should be set higher than that IMO. And don't get me started how the FDA commissioner absolutely oversold the efficacy at the press conference. That sloppiness was shocking.

For patients who received high IgG plasma (>18.45 S/Co), seven-day mortality was 8.9% (6.8%, 11.7%); for recipients of medium IgG plasma (4.62 to 18.45 S/Co) mortality was 11.6% (10.3%, 13.1%); and for recipients of low IgG plasma (<4.62 S/Co) mortality was 13.7% (11.1%, 16.8%) (p=0.048)

ETA. Interesting article about what immunologists think will happen in the future.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1298232261394018305

View: https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1298232261394018305

 

[Nomad]

Sweden does not have herd immunity. Even Stockholm is far short of that, let alone the rest of the country. Notice the article says, "a form of herd immunity". What they presumably mean is that if a substantial % of people have been infected and recovered, they spread of the virus will be reduced. The same phenomenon is probably occurring in NYC, where I'd bet that a larger proportion of people have been infected than in Stockholm.

They say they do in the form of T cells:

SARS-CoV-2 Immunity Likely To Be Higher Than Antibody Testing Has Shown

A recent study suggests that many people who contract SARS-CoV-2 but have mild or no clinical signs still develop so-called T-cell-mediated immunity to the virus, even in the absence of a positive antibody test. The researchers conclude that this is likely to mean that public immunity is...

www.google.com

"A recent *preprint study published in bioRxiv, suggests that many people who contract SARS-CoV-2 but have mild or no clinical signs still develop so-called T-cell-mediated immunity to the virus, even in the absence of a positive antibody test. The researchers conclude that this is likely to mean that public immunity is probably higher than antibody testing has so far suggested.

The multi-centered team based at the Karolinska Institutet and Karolinska University Hospital performed immunological analyses on over 200 people, including unexposed individuals as well as exposed family members and individuals with acute or convalescent COVID-19. From this they mapped the functional and phenotypic landscape of SARS-CoV-2-specific T-cell responses.

T cells are an important subset of our immune cells, pivotal in the immune system’s ability to recognize and destroy virus-infected cells in our bodies and mount an immune response on re-exposure to a previously encountered infection. Cytotoxic T cells are essential in destroying virus-infected cells, whilst a phenotypically distinct group of T cells, sometimes called memory T cells, are important in the development of long-term immunity.

In a University press release, Marcus Buggert, Assistant Professor at the Center for Infectious Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, and one of the paper’s main authors commented, “Advanced analyses have now enabled us to map in detail the T-cell response during and after a COVID-19 infection. Our results indicate that roughly twice as many people have developed T-cell immunity compared with those who we can detect antibodies in.”

The team showed that even in the absence of a detectable antibody response, a robust memory T cell response could be measured in many individuals, akin to the response seen following vaccination against other viral infections."

 

[Nomad]

..otherwise know as spreading disease that could kill others...is that benign? I know, just wash my hands.

Tengell says masks may be "very dangerous:"

Sweden’s disease expert says just wearing face masks could be ‘very dangerous’

Sweden’s top infectious disease expert has resisted recommending face masks for the general population — arguing it’s “very dangerous” if people believe the coverings alone …

www.google.com

"Sweden’s top infectious disease expert has resisted recommending face masks for the general population — arguing it’s “very dangerous” if people believe the coverings alone will stop the spread of the coronavirus."

"Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, has repeatedly expressed skepticism that face masks will control virus outbreaks, the Financial Times reported."

“It is very dangerous to believe face masks would change the game when it comes to COVID-19,” said Tengell, who is considered the country’s equivalent of Dr. Anthony Fauci from the White House COVID-19 task force."

"He noted that countries with widespread mask compliance, such as Belgium and Spain, were still seeing rising virus rates."

“Face masks can be a complement to other things when other things are safely in place,” he said. “But to start with having face masks and then think you can crowd your buses or your shopping malls — that’s definitely a mistake.”

He sure has a valid point on Spain.

 

[Jagartrott]

"He noted that countries with widespread mask compliance, such as Belgium and Spain, were still seeing rising virus rates."

“Face masks can be a complement to other things when other things are safely in place,” he said. “But to start with having face masks and then think you can crowd your buses or your shopping malls — that’s definitely a mistake.”

That's simply uninformed. Since stricter measures were implemented again in Belgium at the end of July - including reducing the number of close contacts, allowing max 1 (now 2 again) people of the same family together in the shops, and making face masks compulsory in more places - infections have been going down for more than a week now.

In other news, sometimes karma acts fast (from The Guardian's live report):
The former Formula 1 team boss and Italian businessman Flavio Briatore has been hospitalised, in Milan after contracting coronavirus.

Briatore, owner of the Sardinian Billlionaire’s nightclub, has been taken to the San Raffaele hospital, in the Lombardy capital, where his condition is ”serious”, according to the Italian magazine l’Espresso.

A few days ago, Briatore attacked the Italian government, which, in mid-August, introduced a decree imposing the closure of all discotheques in Italy due to the increase in new cases of Covid-19.

“This new decree was written by a madman”, Briatore said.

A few days later, more than 50 people tested positive for Covid-19 at Billionaire’s, including Briatore.

Meanwhile, the former footballer and coach of the Seria A Bologna team, Sinisa Mihajlović, has also tested positive. Mihajlović had socialised with Briatore in Sardinia a few days before.

On 12 August, Briatore met the former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi at his house, on the Costa Smeralda in Sardinia. “I came to visit my friend, the president: I love him so much and find him in good shape. Bravo Silvio,” Briatore said in a short video posted on Instagram.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Tengel makes a defensible point that masks alone are not going to get R below 1. We saw that in Maryland where mask compliance is very good, but cases rose last month when bars and expanded indoor dining occurred. Some of that was rolled back and cases are falling again. Also, I don't really know of any place where masks are the sole precaution being taken. In contrast, the evidence is mounting that masks in conjunction with other strategies is very effective. So, I really don't understand why Sweden is not recommending them. It seems inconsistent with their logic all along that people are smart enough to operate within federal guidelines related to social distancing and group size. But when it comes to masks, that they will behave like stupid sheep. You can make a strong case that public health officials are worrying too much about these second order effects in general.

 

[jmdirt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1297116978964905984

Can someone translate the points made 1,2,3,4?

 

[Cookster15]

..otherwise know as spreading disease that could kill others...is that benign? I know, just wash my hands.

Life or death? I think I understand both sides of this debate. Lockdowns are not a sustainable strategy. Yes life needs to go on. The woman claims she has a medical condition that she can't wear a mask who are we to judge? If it was life or death I'd say not wearing a mask would have been made a criminal offense by now?

Well I guess we are all risking life or death when we walk out the front door in the morning. Heck we risk life or death when we ride. We can risk killing others when we drive a car. I hope you have equal sympathy for businesses, jobs and livelihoods currently being destroyed via restrictions? Mental health impacts?

I can understand being in her job would make her nervous but the cashier woman is young enough not to worry and I assume she wears a mask and gloves, employs personal hygiene and is sensible enough not to touch her face. If she has elderly or vulnerable relatives then they can be kept safe. I understand the concept of social responsibility but this is not a black and white concept. Life must go on and even Europe understands the economy is important which is why France, Belgium and Spain are now showing a second wave of infections.

 

[Cookster15]

So, I really don't understand why Sweden is not recommending them

Looking at Sweden's cases and deaths I think its obvious why? They didn't protect their vulnerable initially but now seem to be reaping the benefits. Hard to see how masks are going to help with Sweden's current stats? 72,000 currently infected patients but crucially just 22 people are listed as serious or critical (Worldometer).

 

[Cookster15]

Are you serious - Sydney just had two security guards from quarantine hotels catch the virus - Hopefully Sydney will be able to contain the spread of the virus - Anyway, Australia made a mistake with imported cases of COVID19 - All these people and there were only small numbers should have been sent to hospitals for increased infection control, especially seeing Australia had stages where hospitals were near empty because elective surgery was cancelled - Lessons to be learnt.

Aged Care Homes - Australia like most countries have failed the test whenit comes to protecting old people in aged care homes - The FACT is that ofthe cases in Aged Care Homes in Victoria between 93 to 95% occurred in privately run aged care homes - Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.

Of course, but the clear fact is Covid-19 only got into Victorian privately run aged care homes, not aged care in any other state.

I am not arguing that aged care isn't a problem - it absolutely is and the Federal government is already acting upon this. But cause and effect is the issue here. The cause was the complete incompetence of the Victorian government in the hotel quarantine. Had that failure not occurred then no virus would have infected Victoria's vulnerable aged care facilities.

Lesson 1 is maintain control of quarantine.
Lesson 2 is aged care.

Has the Victorian Premier apologized yet? The Prime Minister of Australia has? The state of NSW has learned the lessons of the Ruby Princess imported cases and Australia acted faster than most developed nations to halt incoming flights from China, Iran and to implement compulsory 14 day quarantine for all returning overseas arrivals, but Victoria is still in denial on the cause of their disaster and now they suffer hard lockdown.

 

[Cookster15]

You need to tell the full story - Only the state of Victoria has mandated the use of masks.

If and when the virus show signs of getting out of control other states would be quick to mandate the use of masks. Queensland does not mandate masks and until recently had no daily cases but this was achieved via closing its border and existing social distancing regulations, not wearing masks. Victoria was reactive after their quarantine disaster, An avoidable disaster no other state is guilty of, Now jobs and businesses are being being decimated all because Victoria put poorly trained and monitored security guards in charge of hotel quarantine and one infected family walked out. Now look.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Looking at Sweden's cases and deaths I think its obvious why? They didn't protect their vulnerable initially but now seem to be reaping the benefits. Hard to see how masks are going to help with Sweden's current stats? 72,000 currently infected patients but crucially just 22 people are listed as serious or critical (Worldometer).

They are still sitting on a plateau of a couple thousand cases a week. It is self explanatory why they should still be trying to mitigate those numbers with every tool at their disposal. Since they haven't achieved herd immunity, those numbers can balloon once fall hits and people start heading back indoors into crowded and poorly ventilated areas. I can see why they don't want to mandate masks given their past decisions. But not even recommending them? That seems shortsighted to me.

 

[Cookster15]

They are still sitting on a plateau of a couple thousand cases a week. It is self explanatory why they should still be trying to mitigate those numbers with every tool at their disposal. Since they haven't achieved herd immunity, those numbers can balloon once fall hits and people start heading back indoors into crowded and poorly ventilated areas. I can see why they don't want to mandate masks given their past decisions. But not even recommending them? That seems shortsighted to me.

You are ignoring serious cases. Yes a couple of thousand cases per week sounds bad but just 22 people are currently serious. Something is working?

 

[Koronin]

You are ignoring serious cases. Yes a couple of thousand cases per week sounds bad but just 22 people are currently serious. Something is working?

That's my thought.

Also something I'm wondering is that t-cell memory gives some immunity, but it sounds like it doesn't prevent you from getting a virus. From what I'm understanding is that it will prevent you from getting the more serious side effects. So if you have t-cells you'll likely get either mild symptoms or be asymptomatic. Which means it will spread, but it won't cause major issues.