Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Chris Gadsden]

California records half a million Covid cases in two weeks

Governor Newsom warns of 100,000 hospitalizations within a month and stay-at-home orders likely to be extended next week

www.theguardian.com

Something is happening in California.

Around the 1st of June the propensity for infection was fairly similar among races, between 200 and 300 per 100,000 in population. As of yesterday, Latinos have a cumulative infection rate of 4,506 per 100k, Blacks are 2,091 per 100,000, Whites are 1,661 per 100,000 and Asians are 1,320 per 100k.

About 35% of the cases are in the 18-34 age group and that's way up since June 1.

Of the deaths, Latinos make up 47.9% (10,307 dead) with 36.3% of the population, Whites 30.9% (6,642 dead) with 38.8% of the population. Asians 12.1% (2,600 dead) with 16.5% of the population and Blacks 7.1% (1,534 dead) with 6.1% of the population.

Of the infection totals;

Latino 602,783 or 55.5% of the cases and 36.3% of the population.
White 225,869 or 20.8% of the cases and 38.8% of the population.
Asian 75,479 or 7.0% of the cases and 16.5% of the population.
Black 45,722 or 4.2% of the cases and 6.1% of the population.

It would be interesting to know what's behind these numbers.

https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/

 

[Oldermanish]

Something is happening in California.

Around the 1st of June the propensity for infection was fairly similar among races, between 200 and 300 per 100,000 in population. As of yesterday, Latinos have a cumulative infection rate of 4,506 per 100k, Blacks are 2,091 per 100,000, Whites are 1,661 per 100,000 and Asians are 1,320 per 100k.

About 35% of the cases are in the 18-34 age group and that's way up since June 1.

Of the deaths, Latinos make up 47.9% (10,307 dead) with 36.3% of the population, Whites 30.9% (6,642 dead) with 38.8% of the population. Asians 12.1% (2,600 dead) with 16.5% of the population and Blacks 7.1% (1,534 dead) with 6.1% of the population.

Of the infection totals;

Latino 602,783 or 55.5% of the cases and 36.3% of the population.
White 225,869 or 20.8% of the cases and 38.8% of the population.
Asian 75,479 or 7.0% of the cases and 16.5% of the population.
Black 45,722 or 4.2% of the cases and 6.1% of the population.

It would be interesting to know what's behind these numbers.

https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/

What we spoke of earlier: Central Valley and other areas that have traditionally extended, communal families would get multiple cases and aftermaths and risky social situations with college age kids. Nothing new and were forecasted back in March as vulnerable groups based on living circumstances or slack behavior. Keeps happening, sadly.

 

[jmdirt]

I saw this Tweet and spit beer all over:
"What if instead of a vaccine we just were able to get exposed to a weak version of the virus that enabled us to build the antibodies we need to fight the real thing "--Jack Posobiec

 

[Unchained]

Chris is caught on up on Italy,Germany,Brazil,China,N and S Korea ..and wait for it..Russia..all have lock downs..economic nuke bombs and dead bodies..including France and Turkey..yep everyone..regular folks,gov everyone..and fake reports worldwide from doctors,nurses..everyone..all to make Trump look bad.
It makes sense that all..I mean all of Italy would kill itself to make Donald look dumb..
Dead bodies in Japan are real Chris..no conspiracy against the Donald.
Our people are dying in real time..in reality..our President is high

 

[BroDeal]

Chris is caught on up on Italy,Germany,Brazil,China,N and S Korea ..and wait for it..Russia..all have lock downs..economic nuke bombs and dead bodies..including France and Turkey..yep everyone..regular folks,gov everyone..and fake reports worldwide from doctors,nurses..everyone..all to make Trump look bad.
It makes sense that all..I mean all of Italy would kill itself to make Donald look dumb..
Dead bodies in Japan are real Chris..no conspiracy against the Donald.
Our people are dying in real time..in reality..our President is high

Don't worry. It will be alright. Pelosi cares so much about Americans she decided the way to help them is by spending stimulus money on gender studies in Pakistan. Way to--dare i say it?--engender faith in the government during a crisis.

 

[Merckx index]

At the time the propagandists went after POTUS there was a fairly full-throated backlash against the 'POTUS said to inject bleach' nonsense. There was a similar attempt with the chloroquine phosphate episode to accuse DJT of causing some dude's death for taking fish tank cleaner. 100% made up fiction by the press. The Charlottesville "very fine people on both sides" lies (told recently by the president-elect).

I didn't see a lot of blame directed at Trump for the fish tank cleaner incident. His touting of HCQ as a miracle cure certainly put it in the minds of many, and if the drug hadn't been so widely publicized, the couple wouldn't have taken it, but i think most people regard the blame as on them.

OTOH, there's no question that Trump said fine people on both sides. That is an exact quote. The argument is that he wasn't referring to white supremacists, but only people who marched with them. But anyone who joins a rally organized by white supremacists knows that by doing so, s/he is lending support to the movement. "Fine" people who cared about the statues being taken down didn't march.

Why does the press continue with the propaganda? Because it works.

Why does the press report what Trump actually said? Because that's what it's supposed to do. It's up to readers to separate fact from opinion, which is exactly what you haven't done here. IOW, you're pushing propaganda just as much as the press is, just different propaganda.

So anyway, I posted the PF link because even those guys admit POTUS never said to inject bleach. Which, once again, was what you said he said. He didn't say that, that's not what he was suggesting.

I pointed out all the flaws in what PF said, and you completely ignored them. You just pretended that they didn't exist, and repeated your blind adherence to someone's uninformed opinion. I could go step-by-step through the entire PF piece, but obviously you made up your mind a long time ago about what you want to believe.

the last thing Progressives want is a conversation

Because too often, such as now, it's a waste of time.

Don't worry. It will be alright. Pelosi cares so much about Americans she decided the way to help them is by spending stimulus money on gender studies in Pakistan. Way to--dare i say it?--engender faith in the government during a crisis.

I agree it's a bad idea to put a foreign aid program into what is supposed to be a domestic stimulus bill, but that said, anything that improves the lot of women in a Muslim country is probably a good investment. They certainly need the money more than Tom Brady or Floyd Mayweather do.

Not to mention that Pelosi's program costs about 500 times less than the three martini lunch tax write-off. Typical, give free (not to mention extravagant, unhealthy, one-reason-health-care-costs-are-so-high) lunches to people who don't need them.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Why does the press report what Trump actually said? Because that's what it's supposed to do. It's up to readers to separate fact from opinion, which is exactly what you haven't done here. IOW, you're pushing propaganda just as much as the press is, just different propaganda.

Trump made two of the top eight junk science claims in this list--injecting bleach and using HCQ. With regards to bleach:

I think by now we can both safely say 1). The press didn’t/doesn’t/rarely accurately report(s) and 2). He never said what you and the press said he said wrt injecting bleach.

Time to move on I suppose.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Typical, give free (not to mention extravagant, unhealthy, one-reason-health-care-costs-are-so-high) lunches to people who don't need them.

Oh boy. So business meals are allowed 50% of the cost as a legitimate business expense. Years ago it was 100%.

As an incentive to the restaurant industry all but destroyed by our governments response to covid the same government has decided temporarily to allow for 100% business meal expense.

There’s nothing free about it and if your position is having lunch at a restaurant is “extravagant, unhealthy and one reason our health care costs are so high”... then have at it.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Oh boy. So business meals are allowed 50% of the cost as a legitimate business expense. Years ago it was 100%.

As an incentive to the restaurant industry all but destroyed by our governments response to covid the same government has decided temporarily to allow for 100% business meal expense.

There’s nothing free about it and if your position is having lunch at a restaurant is “extravagant, unhealthy and one reason our health care costs are so high”... then have at it.

Citation needed for the destroyed restaurant industry. I am still not seeing any closed where I frequent and MD is supposedly a 'lockdown' state.

In my experience, this analysis tracks with what happened in MD. Any time the capacity got bumped up to 50%, the numbers started to get worse. 25% seemed to work to keep R around 1.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1341748122393960451

View: https://twitter.com/NikDeCostaKlipa/status/1341748122393960451

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Citation needed for the destroyed restaurant industry. I am still not seeing any closed where I frequent and MD is supposedly a 'lockdown' state.

Here you go. Yelp data as of September. I'll go ahead and guess it's much worse now.

Restaurants Remain Hardest Hit, Permanent and Temporary Closures Increase
The restaurant industry continues to be among the most impacted with an increasing number of closures – totalling 32,109 closures as of August 31, with 19,590 of these business closures indicated to be permanent (61%). Breakfast and brunch restaurants, burger joints, sandwich shops, dessert places and Mexican restaurants are among the types of restaurants with the highest rate of business closures. Foods that work well for delivery and takeout have been able to keep their closure rates lower than others, including pizza places, delis, food trucks, bakeries and coffee shops.

https://www.yelpeconomicaverage.com/business-closures-update-sep-2020.html


And more;

FULL-SERVICE RESTAURANTS MAY NOT RECOVER UNTIL 2025, NEW DATA SHOW

https://www.restaurantbusinessonlin...ants-may-not-recover-until-2025-new-data-show

 

[Unchained]

Don't worry. It will be alright. Pelosi cares so much about Americans she decided the way to help them is by spending stimulus money on gender studies in Pakistan. Way to--dare i say it?--engender faith in the government during a crisis.

This has really really been the problem all along..if you did logical factoring..
The problem:
Need for a variety of pieces of a complex puzzle to address the destructive facets of a global pandemic. So for anybody's minimum, emergency action for the medical component and financial support while it's figured out,maybe not completely solved,but a balance of public health and the ability to maintain it.
So Trump's original plan,the plan parroted by most experts,test people,know their status and behave accordingly. Trump' s plan certainly would have had a dramatic positive impact. Only he knows why he didn't follow through with his plan.
What you are discussing is not medical,it's partisan pork. Pork has always been the problem with modern government. Horse trading is done by the minute and for the most part Americans are numb to crazy spending, the pandemic has heightened awareness of everything,so a bill presented to address the pandemic should not include anything extra, but it does. So I think if you and I cared to do a careful analysis of the @5500 page legislation, I am confident that we would find crazy included by both parties..
4 years ago,we could not get health care system for all Americans because of the complexity not the simplicity of the legislation.
So yes hearing about the crazy included pork add ons just shows again how dysfunctional this government is..the Democrats are simply,factually,literally not in charge,the bill w cash for Pakistan or any other complete stinky BS will be agreed to and signed by President Trump,not Nancy Pelosi..that is not our process,not our government,not our reality.
Are Chuck and Nancy a couple of stooges? Without a doubt..was taking the time to gaslight,belly ache about how disappointing the bill is..an act of a complete idiot? How can that news conference be seen as helpful in a country in need of some good news? How can you spend 99% of a Covid relief news conference not talking about Covid relief but instead ranting about politics and politicians?
It's about helping people who are dying and suffering and these clowns,all of them can't stay on message..

 

[Unchained]

In my opinion,I agree with President Trump,he should follow his to do list,and deliver on the testing he said he would provide.I back his promised objective 100%

 

[Nomad]

Vitamin D supplementation is brought up for most diseases at one time or another. I don't think there has ever been an instance where it has been shown to be beneficial unless you have a deficiency. I wonder what vitamin pill sales have been like this year?

I definitely agree on the deficiency aspect. Vitamin D insufficiently is a problem in the U.S. affecting about 60% of nursing home residents and upwards to 40% of the general population:

Vitamin D Deficiency and Related Disorders: Practice Essentials, Background, Pathophysiology

Vitamin D deficiency can result from inadequate exposure to sunlight; malabsorption; accelerated catabolism from certain medications; and, in infants, the minimal amount of vitamin D found in breast milk. In children, vitamin D deficiency can result in rickets, which presents as bowing of the...

www.medscape.com

And it's a very concerning problem with African-Americans as they have a 6-fold higher Covid mortality rate compared with white people:

Vitamin D deficiency in African Americans is associated with a high risk of severe disease and mortality by SARS-CoV-2 - Journal of Human Hypertension

www.nature.com

The problem is how many people get their vitamin D levels checked? Mine were low when I was tested several years ago. I don't sunbath anymore and I use sunscreen when I'm out cycling/running in the warmer months.

I don't know what the vitamin D sales are. Lol. However, I can tell you a bottle of 120 D3 2000 iu pills from a reputable company is cheap - around 6 bucks at some stores.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Here you go. Yelp data as of September. I'll go ahead and guess it's much worse now.

Restaurants Remain Hardest Hit, Permanent and Temporary Closures Increase
The restaurant industry continues to be among the most impacted with an increasing number of closures – totalling 32,109 closures as of August 31, with 19,590 of these business closures indicated to be permanent (61%). Breakfast and brunch restaurants, burger joints, sandwich shops, dessert places and Mexican restaurants are among the types of restaurants with the highest rate of business closures. Foods that work well for delivery and takeout have been able to keep their closure rates lower than others, including pizza places, delis, food trucks, bakeries and coffee shops.

https://www.yelpeconomicaverage.com/business-closures-update-sep-2020.html


And more;

FULL-SERVICE RESTAURANTS MAY NOT RECOVER UNTIL 2025, NEW DATA SHOW

https://www.restaurantbusinessonlin...ants-may-not-recover-until-2025-new-data-show

The figures indicate that this is at most 5% of the 'burger' and 2.5% of the 'pizza' industry. I can only think of 1 restaurant that we eat at that has not re-opened, so that seems plausible to me. And how many would close in a normal year? That is the true comparison, being the excess mortality for businesses that we can attribute to COVID-19.

It is a good time to support your favorite joints with gift cards to help them through the winter. Many are offering perks like up to 25% back. There is no guarantee that they will get any help from above in the next month.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Vaccinations in the U.S. began Dec. 14 with health-care workers, and so far 792,142 doses have been administered, according to a state-by-state tally by Bloomberg. Those numbers are accelerating as a second vaccine by Moderna Inc. is distributed

Nearly 800,000 in a little over a week. That's more than I would have guessed.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Yep. It's just the start.

PARIS, Dec 22 — People who fail to get a Covid-19 vaccination could be banned from using public transport in France, according to a draft law sparking angry protests from opposition politicians today.

Prime Minister Jean Castex yesterday got his Cabinet’s backing for a bill that is designed to provide a legal framework for dealing with health crises, including the coronavirus pandemic.

According to the text, which will now be submitted to parliament, a negative Covid test or proof of a “preventative treatment, including the administration of a vaccine” could be required for people to be granted “access to transport or to some locations, as well as certain activities”.

https://www.malaymail.com/news/worl...d-face-public-transport-ban-in-france/1934262

 

[djpbaltimore]

The kicker is that this young lady was pre-med, yet she willfully disobeyed the medical rules in the islands by removing her tracking device to watch her boyfriend ride a jetski. Good luck with the interviews.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1341726124313894918

View: https://twitter.com/TODAYshow/status/1341726124313894918

 

[movingtarget]

The kicker is that this young lady was pre-med, yet she willfully disobeyed the medical rules in the islands by removing her tracking device to watch her boyfriend ride a jetski. Good luck with the interviews.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1341726124313894918

View: https://twitter.com/TODAYshow/status/1341726124313894918

There's one Trump can't pardon............

 

[movingtarget]

In my opinion,I agree with President Trump,he should follow his to do list,and deliver on the testing he said he would provide.I back his promised objective 100%

Is anyone still listening, outside his usual supporters I mean..............no wonder comedians are throwing their hands in the air but he's been too busy pardoning criminals I guess. He stopped making comments about the testing for good reason. Boasting about anything during a pandemic in the USA's position seems a just a tad odd.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

The kicker is that this young lady was pre-med, yet she willfully disobeyed the medical rules in the islands by removing her tracking device to watch her boyfriend ride a jetski. Good luck with the interviews.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1341726124313894918

View: https://twitter.com/TODAYshow/status/1341726124313894918

Huh.

Looks like Premier McLaughlin is bound and determined to commit economic suicide. 70% of GDP is from tourism and most of that is from the good ol US of A. Yep, make an example out of an American kid who is also a pre-med student. Smart. Real smart.

 

[jmdirt]

...and now dt is torpedoing the six/seven month late covid relief bill...

 

[Merckx index]

Oh boy. So business meals are allowed 50% of the cost as a legitimate business expense. Years ago it was 100%.

Years ago, the top marginal tax rate was 91%. Yes, let's make America Great Again.

As an incentive to the restaurant industry all but destroyed by our governments response to covid the same government has decided temporarily to allow for 100% business meal expense.

Gross exaggeration. I'm not belittling the hit the restaurant industry has taken, but the great majority of them have not gone out of business. I'm all for helping the restaurant industry, but why not give the money directly to them? In fact, in places where restaurants are closed, the tax break won't help immediately. Why not give the money in a way that it does help immediately?

There’s nothing free about it and if your position is having lunch at a restaurant is “extravagant, unhealthy and one reason our health care costs are so high”... then have at it.

If you get a huge discount in the price via taxes, then a major portion of the meal is effectively free. I don't have detailed data, but from my relatively rare occasions dining out, I have found that with a few exceptions, most restaurants serve food that has far more fat/oil, salt and protein than is healthy. Even a pure vegetable dish is something i would never prepare at home. That's one reason I rarely eat in restaurants. Very few people in my experience are willing to make the effort to eat to live, as opposed to living to eat. Maybe Nomad could weigh in on this, since he's insisting that better health is an important part of the response to C19.

I also call total, 100% BS to the notion that you have to dine with someone to develop a good business relationship with them.

...and now dt is torpedoing the six/seven month late covid relief bill...

He's already vetoed the Defense bill, apparently because it doesn't include something that AFAIK has nothing to do with defense. There are enough votes from his own party to override the veto, but if he follows through on his threat to veto the stimulus, I'm not at all sure that the bill can be saved.

I actually agree with many of Trump's criticisms of the stimulus bill, certainly that $600 to individuals isn't enough. But half a loaf--or in this case, maybe a couple of slices of bread--is better than nothing, and after seeing how long and difficult it was for Congress even to agree on this bill, it looks like all or nothing. It should also be pointed out that his point man Mnuchin was in on the negotiations, so it's not as though Trump was blind-sided by the final bill.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Years ago, the top marginal tax rate was 91%. Yes, let's make America Great Again.

So, it's not uncommon for DC pols to use the tax code for social engineering purposes. Why would you suppose the 100% meal deduction would be temporarily re-instated? I mean, just take a wild guess.

Gross exaggeration. I'm not belittling the hit the restaurant industry has taken, but the great majority of them have not gone out of business.

Full service restaurants are getting smashed and those that survive may not fully recover until 2025 by some estimates.

If you get a huge discount in the price via taxes, then a major portion of the meal is effectively free.

Well that depends on what your Federal Tax rate is. If the expense is allowable the best case scenario is the meal is paid for with pre-tax money. The Corporate Tax rate today is 21%. S-Corps and Sole Props may be higher or lower but the top for anyone is 37%. Lastly, it's not "free." A business owner would have paid - in tax - that amount of the deductible expense that instead went to the restaurant.

I don't have detailed data, but from my relatively rare occasions dining out, I have found that with a few exceptions, most restaurants serve food that has far more fat/oil, salt and protein than is healthy. Even a pure vegetable dish is something i would never prepare at home. That's one reason I rarely eat in restaurants.

Then outlaw them.

Very few people in my experience are willing to make the effort to eat to live, as opposed to living to eat.

I can chime in here. I have no interest in living in a world where food is not enjoyable.

I also call total, 100% BS to the notion that you have to dine with someone to develop a good business relationship with them.

Again, I am completely ok with removing the social engineering aspects of the Tax Code. I don't think you would like that at all, but I'm more than ok with it.

 

[Merckx index]

Per Worldometer, the U.S. has now passed the 1/1000 deaths threshold. It joins Peru, four W. European countries, and a handful of smaller countries in that club (and maybe a few more that have under-reported). We will finish the year with about 350,000 deaths. I'm hopeful that as the vaccine kicks in on NH patients, the death numbers will fall somewhat in January, but I still expect at least 50,000 for that month, putting the U.S. at about 400,000 total at the end of the month. When this is all over, we might hit 500,000 deaths. If the vaccine works as well as the phase 3 trials indicated, we shouldn't get much above that number. But we badly need evidence that the vaccine doesn't just prevent people from getting really sick and dying, but also inhibits spread.

Some good news: the U.S. did complete a deal with Pfizer for another 100 million doses. One million people have reportedly been vaccinated. I hope a large fraction of those are NH patients.

Some bad news: Yet another new variant reported in the UK, allegedly even more transmissible than the previous new variant.

 

[movingtarget]

Covid fatalities soar in Mexico as president condemned for inaction

As the crisis worsens, Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s government has hardly changed its minimal restrictions

www.theguardian.com