Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[jmdirt]

If you read the paper, that is not actually how the patients were assigned. The patients were assigned by the ward that they were located in and it appears that the patients in the wards that did not get treatment had a significantly lower level of Vitamin D before the treatment even started. That is a red flag as it indicates that the wards are not randomly populated. It is broadly accepted that Vitamin D levels are associated with worse outcomes. The question is whether supplementation helps. Another red flag is that they did not do their statistics correctly based on how they designed the study. The correct statistical test suggests that it is possible that there is no benefit at all.

They couldn't even successfully balance by gender. There is a significantly higher proportion of men in the non-treatment arm. And we know that is also associated with worse outcomes.

Plus, as has been know for, ever is:
-get nutrients from food/balanced nutrition
-megadosing doesn't work because your body simply gets rid of what it can't use
-supplementation only works for deficient people (see point one)
-C dosing for cold/flu doesn't work, nor will D dosing for COVID-19

 

[roundabout]

Covid-19: World's first human challenge trials to start in UK

Healthy, young volunteers will be deliberately infected with a low dose of coronavirus.

www.bbc.com

 

[djpbaltimore]

I have indeed read the paper, but I have to admit not with the devils advocate perspective as my statistical knowledge is not good enough even though I have some of it in my Economics degree.
I said randomly because the study says:
Participants (n=551) were randomly assigned to calcifediol treatment (532 ug on day one and 266 ug on day 3, 7, 15, and 30) at the time of hospital admission or as controls (n=379).

Aren't you exaggerating any problems with the study now?
It is true that they study was not balanced perfectly in Vitamine D levels or by gender and a bunch of other factors..
but the regression analysis adjusts for a host of these issues, including age, sex, vitamine D levels and comorbidities.
The chance of this being coincidental is according to the paper found to be p=0.001 for mortality and p<0.001 for ICU treatment.

But as I said, the paper is awaiting peer-review in the Lancet, so I am sure any issues will be adressed.

Yes, the authors said it was random, but have since backtracked because it is clear that what they did does not fit the definition of a RCT. TBH, those are the kind of things that get taken care of during peer review. I am merely pointing out that their data is a lot more murky than the pre-print portrays it.

If you have two groups and one is sicker than the other, you will see a difference in the health metrics if you give them M&Ms. That doesn't mean that M&Ms caused that difference. In a lot of ways, that is the lesson from the HCQ trials from France that no one else could replicate. At least this one has a reasonable control group, but there is not a lot of conclusions you can draw from a sloppy clinical trial. In both cases, the doctors are not blinded, so you have to wonder if bias creeps into their decision making. It bears mentioning that this study was concluded last May. That we are just hearing about it now suggests that even the authors realize that it is a limited study. Vitamin D may have some beneficial effect, but you would be hard-pressed to prove it with the data they are showing. You can point to the p values, but you are ignoring that the statistical test used is not appropriate for the design of the study. The numbers below are likely more accurate.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1360765711497461765

View: https://twitter.com/lycraolaoghaire/status/1360765711497461765

Plus, as has been know for, ever is:
-get nutrients from food/balanced nutrition
-megadosing doesn't work because your body simply gets rid of what it can't use
-supplementation only works for deficient people (see point one)
-C dosing for cold/flu doesn't work, nor will D dosing for COVID-19

Agreed. The best time to take vitamins is in a healthy diet before you are infected. Really debatable if there is meaningful protection elicited by supplementation after the fact. JMO.

 

[Nomad]

India's dramatic fall in virus cases leaves experts stumped

NEW DELHI (AP) — When the coronavirus pandemic took hold in India, there were fears it would sink the fragile health system of the world’s second-most populous country.

apnews.com

"That success can’t be attributed to vaccinations since India only began administering shots in January — but as more people get a vaccine, the outlook should look even better, though experts are also concerned about variants identified in many countries that appear to be more contagious and render some treatments and vaccines less effective"

"Among the possible explanations for the fall in cases is that some large areas have reached herd immunity — the threshold at which enough people have developed immunity to the virus, by falling sick or being vaccinated, that the spread begins to slacken, said Vineeta Bal, who studies immune systems at India’s National Institute of Immunology."

 

[movingtarget]

New global Covid cases fell 16% last week, says WHO

The number of deaths also fell 10% over the same period, says World Health Organization

www.theguardian.com

 

[roundabout]

1 year anniversary of this thread today. Hope it doesn't make it to 2, but I am not optimistic about this (and I hope I am wrong as I so often am).

 

[yaco]

1 year anniversary of this thread today. Hope it doesn't make it to 2, but I am not optimistic about this (and I hope I am wrong as I so often am).

Things will have to go drastically wrong for life to be worse or similar to today - As long as the vaccine rollout continues and the efficacy of the vaccine is high ( looks good at the moment ) then life should be much improved.

 

[Jagartrott]

I hope the EU goes in hard on AstraZeneca. The way they have behaved and communicated was extremely rude. Now it turns out it was all pose (same for the British government).

AstraZeneca's vaccine contract with the UK is based on 'best efforts,' just like its deal with a frustrated EU | CNN

AstraZeneca's contract to supply the UK with Covid-19 vaccines commits it to making "best reasonable efforts," the same language used in its deal with the European Union, which critics blamed for the bloc's faltering inoculation program.

edition.cnn.com

 

[Keram]

I hope the EU goes in hard on AstraZeneca. The way they have behaved and communicated was extremely rude. Now it turns out it was all pose (same for the British government).

AstraZeneca's vaccine contract with the UK is based on 'best efforts,' just like its deal with a frustrated EU | CNN

AstraZeneca's contract to supply the UK with Covid-19 vaccines commits it to making "best reasonable efforts," the same language used in its deal with the European Union, which critics blamed for the bloc's faltering inoculation program.

edition.cnn.com

EU should sue them asap AZ blatantly prioritizes UK.

 

[djpbaltimore]

There are still quite a few pundits who really can't understand why the AZ vaccine is not approved already in the US. But the truth is that they don't have any to provide, so it is a moot point.

No matter how pessimistic I was a year ago, I had no idea that this milestone would happen. Just unthinkable.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1362258344078176256

View: https://twitter.com/prchovanec/status/1362258344078176256

 

[Koronin]

There are still quite a few pundits who really can't understand why the AZ vaccine is not approved already in the US. But the truth is that they don't have any to provide, so it is a moot point.

No matter how pessimistic I was a year ago, I had no idea that this milestone would happen. Just unthinkable.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1362258344078176256

View: https://twitter.com/prchovanec/status/1362258344078176256

Apparently they aren't understanding that A.Z won't get any kind of approval without the US trial information. That's even more critical to the FDA after the disaster of the original information release from A.Z. Personally I'd have preferred J&J to have their EUA hearing this week instead of next week, but not sure that will make much difference as they are also behind where they had hoped on their production. Then add in all the weather issues this week in much of the US, it's just going to be a mess for at least a week to get things straightened back out.

 

[movingtarget]

South African Covid variant may cut antibody protection from Pfizer vaccine by two-thirds

Study finds fall in antibody activity – but scientists say jab should still protect against severe disease and death

www.theguardian.com

 

[jmdirt]

I heard on the radio on the way to work that Walgreens is partnering with Uber to be sure that people can get to a vaccination site. That is a great idea, but based on most of the reporting, people are having trouble getting appointments, not trouble getting to them here in Idaho. There are some volunteer groups who are helping people get appointments set up so that should help with that to some degree.

 

[Koronin]

I heard on the radio on the way to work that Walgreens is partnering with Uber to be sure that people can get to a vaccination site. That is a great idea, but based on most of the reporting, people are having trouble getting appointments, not trouble getting to them here in Idaho. There are some volunteer groups who are helping people get appointments set up so that should help with that to some degree.

That's the issue here as well. Plus people from out of state coming into the state and taking appointments that residents want and can't get. Where I live we only finally started being able to give vaccines to more than just those who work at the hospital.

 

[Unchained]

There are 2 websites used to make appointments here in San Diego and from what I have seen it's easier to find a fat diamond ring on the ground,have Metallica play for 4 hours at your private pool party as a favor and have Tesla drop off the first electric truck for you to use for free, forever than it is to get an appointment... The Petco Park super injection center was closed for 3 days because of vaccine shortages. It's going better, but not perfect.
I have personally noticed field lighting on at 2 El Cajon high schools. And I saw driving aged girls playing softball, nobody on the diamond was wearing a mask.
Ensenada General Hospital has had a steady decline in all types of patients. Lots of encouraging signs, including most first responders getting at least 1 vaccine,many already have received a second. Still mandatory that businesses take your temperature and you get blasted w hand sanitizer of some form before entering.also need to step on a rubber welcome mat that is filled with some kind of disinfectant. In California nothing like that

 

[jmdirt]

When Chuck Todd asked Dr. Fauci if he would feel safe being a teacher in a classroom, he paused, repeated the question, said that his daughter will be doing it, but never answered the question. That speaks volumes IMO. Even if teachers get vaccinated, their families likely aren't.

I haven't seen the numbers yet, but Idaho teachers have been able to get vaccinated since late January. Boise School District, one of the largest in the state, just announced that K-6 will be back 100% on March 9th. They have been back at 50% A/B alternating since mid January. I can't imagine any classroom being able to maintain CDC recommended spacing with 30 kids in a room (or 20, 25 for that matter). Hallways, cafeterias, and other common places are also a concern right?

I fear that C19 is going to be hard on the teaching profession short and long term, which may have a negative effect for many years to come...hopefully I'm wrong.

 

[yaco]

The aim of a vaccination is to protect you from serious illness - Your post is much ado about nothing.

 

[dusty red roads]

This may have been posted via a different article previously, not sure - but in Bloomberg today the gist is Pfizer looks like it could prevent transmission, or at least greatly lessen it.

Pfizer-BioNTech Shot Stops Covid Spread, Israeli Study Shows

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Tricycle Rider]

I heard on the radio on the way to work that Walgreens is partnering with Uber to be sure that people can get to a vaccination site. That is a great idea, but based on most of the reporting, people are having trouble getting appointments, not trouble getting to them here in Idaho. There are some volunteer groups who are helping people get appointments set up so that should help with that to some degree.

That's the issue here as well. Plus people from out of state coming into the state and taking appointments that residents want and can't get. Where I live we only finally started being able to give vaccines to more than just those who work at the hospital.

Here in Eugene the medical professionals I'm in contact with already got their first jab, but their second jab had been delayed because the vaccine shipment is arriving late due to the snowstorms yonder east. (Apparently the vaccine is coming from Tennessee.) Understandable, and no need to freak out as the shipment should arrive within the acceptable time window.

That said I just got back from driving my older than dirt parents to the local community college parking lot where they got their first jab, things were a bit confusing at the parking lot because of all the cars driving through. But all things considered things went smoothly and were very well organized, and the staff and volunteers were all surprisingly very nice. I'm sure they get their fair share of impatient jerks.

I don't know when my group's turn will come, but the way we did things is we registered online with Lane County Public Health, and they then sent my folks an email letting them know when their turn for the vaccine is and an appointment schedule. So, I'll just wait my turn and so far I think my area is doing a good job trying to get things done.

 

[jmdirt]

The aim of a vaccination is to protect you from serious illness - Your post is much ado about nothing.

As is the case most of the time you are just taking potshots, your post adds absolutely nothing to the thread or my post.

"The aim of vaccination is to protect you from serious illness" Who doesn't know that?

Vaccination does not prevent family members from getting sick and/or dying.

 

[yaco]

As is the case most of the time you are just taking potshots, your post adds absolutely nothing to the thread or my post.

"The aim of vaccination is to protect you from serious illness" Who doesn't know that?

Vaccination does not prevent family members from getting sick and/or dying.

My post adds lots to your post - Vaccination is what will allow society to gradually return to normal life which also includes schools - The flu vaccination doesn't protect all 100% but we accept this as part of life - The sooner all teachers are vaccinated then the sooner schools can resume normal operations.

 

[Mayomaniac]

The AZ vaccine already seems to trigger a response from the immune system after the first does (it is a more "classic" vaccine after all). I know 2 people who got a bit of fever 2 days after getting the first dose (until now AZ has mainly been used on u65 teachers and other people who are working in schools in South Tyrol).

 

[jmdirt]

My post adds lots to your post - Vaccination is what will allow society to gradually return to normal life which also includes schools - The flu vaccination doesn't protect all 100% but we accept this as part of life - The sooner all teachers are vaccinated then the sooner schools can resume normal operations.

You just stated what we already know for the second time. What you didn't say is how will this help their family if they bring C19 home? The reason they are vaccinating teachers, just like my company offering vax for us, is to make them feel safe to work. Teachers on the news are worried about their families.

 

[yaco]

You just stated what we already know for the second time. What you didn't say is how will this help their family if they bring C19 home? The reason they are vaccinating teachers, just like my company offering vax for us, is to make them feel safe to work. Teachers on the news are worried about their families.

What do you expect from the authorities - American's can't expect to keep their children doing online learning for another 12 to 24 months until we reach a level of herd immunity - This applies to any working people - Many will be vaccinated long before their families - Do they stop working ?

 

[djpbaltimore]

There are signs in the wastewater data that there might be a new wave growing here in the US. Very doubtful that it would be near as bad as the last one, but with the variants on the rise, spring break on the horizon, and a growing sense of complacency over the month-long decline in infections, the conditions seem ripe for more problems. Our vaccination rate has risen to ~1.5 million per day, but we really should continue pushing the envelope on this.