This morning Boise news showed that case numbers, hospitalizations, and deaths are all down except for in North Idaho. Then the national new was talking about all of those numbers being up in Colorado and Michigan.
Cookster15
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- May 14, 2011
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yeah, I didn't mean to say "the worst is still to come" - the circumstances are obviously completely different now compared to last year, and allowing to be way more lenient - but I still think the situation differs, from state to state.
There's been a (pre-print) study out last week about it by the way (I just stumbled across today), which calculated the potential burden left for European countries, based on the vaccination- and past infection rate per age group:
Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.10.21266166v1.full.pdf
It's probably not 100% accurate of course because of estimations used for potential breakthrough infections, dark figures and so on, but it shows quite well that a country like Germany is still at significant more risk than England
Except those charts combine unexposed and unvaccinated. So what proportion of the 80+ age group in Germany remain unvaccinated? I suggest a very low proportion because that is what happened in my country? Once you are vaccinated you are effectively exposed to the virus.
The UK and parts of Europe got a head start on vaccination due to their problems but today the UK, Germany and Australia have a similar level of fully vaccinated (about 70%). The remaining unexposed and unvaccinated proportion of the population would be very low. And in the high risk 80+ age group negligible. So I disagree that Germany (or Australia) is at greater risk than UK.
So I still think some of the modelling being used to determine when restrictions can be eased are way too conservative.
If you're "personally against mandating vaccination" then what are you doing about it? Are you pushing back against it? Reaching out to state & federal officials? Your Congressman & Senator? I have several relatives, friends & acquaintances who are all fully vaccinated and express the same disapproval of the vaccine mandates. I ask them the same question and many are indifferent not wanting to answer. A few have told me they don't feel comfortable getting involved but yet say they're angered by the mandates. And there must be millions of vaccinated Americans on both sides of the political spectrum who are against the mandates. But again - what are they doing about it?
Myself, my son & a few friends of mine recoverd & also with natural immunity have done all we can reaching out to local, state & federal officials as well as to our district Congressional leaders. I'm sure they're not going to take naturally-immune unvaccinated citizens very serious. Lol. This is especially true in light of the fact that the objective of the POTUS & Liberal leadership is to vaccinate every man, woman & child regardless of any other circumstances.
It's interesting that in 5th Circuit Appeals Court ruling the court said the mandates true purpose is not to enhance workplace safety but to instead ramp up vaccine uptake by any means necessary.
Excerpts From the 5th Circuit Court Judgement Against OSHA ⋆ Brownstone Institute
A federal appeals court in New Orleans has stopped the vaccination and testing requirement for private businesses as ordered by the Biden administration and the Labor Department’s regulatory division for workplace safety. The decision is notable not only for its decisive judgement but also for...
www.google.com
It's not longer about public health but power & control, and a means to punish those who invoke informed consent & simply decline vaccination.
A good article on this subject by Kulldorff & Bhattacharya:
Vaccine Mandates are Unethical ⋆ Brownstone Institute
Public trust in public health is finite. Wasting it on policy that seeks to mandate vaccination in a lower risk population makes little sense
brownstone.org
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Scientists warn of new Covid variant with high number of mutations
The B.1.1.529 variant was first spotted in Botswana and six cases have been found in South Africa
I agree with your summation.
I'll let every one ponder this issue.
The vaccination rate for the 80+ cohort in Hong Kong is 17%, while the 70-79 age group is around 35% - Vaccination mandates for this group have no effect as they don't work, barely visit restaurants or the like or travel overseas.
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I also was wowed by the seemingly extremely big group of unvaccinated 80+ in the diagrams- while actually there can't be many of them, but then, without reading the study further, I assume they must mean without a third, booster shot, because those I think have only begun to be given in the last two weeks.
The incidence numbers at this point seem totally negligible to me, because they can't be compared between countries or in one country over some time - here I think everyone who isn't vaccinated and wants to take part in public life in any kind of form, including people going to work, children going to school, now has to be tested every day, of course the numbers are skyrocketing. There is also an ever changing difference in who gets tested (vaccinated/ unvaccinated) in comparison to before, so you cannot just look at the positive rate of tests either.
The much more interesting numbers seem to be hospital admissions, ICU numbers, deaths per day. Here for some reason the UK numbers are also lower than in Germany, even though not as much as the incidence numbers. Why that is the case I don't really know. The thought that it has to do with earlier exposition is a good one I think, but I don't know if that explains it on its own.
I agree that there is a lot of panic in the media, maybe often more than necessary. Also, maybe, we are pretty inflexible when it comes to medical care. We have a certain way how things are done, how the system should work, how and when people should be able to get which treatment where.
On the other side the German newspapers, no matter at which one you are looking, left or right, are full of hospital doctors saying they are on their limit again, the hospitals are running full - and it's not just panic-spreading, they recently had to develop a better system how to transport and spread very ill patients through Germany, because in some areas they already don't have free (ICU)beds anymore in the whole region - and we all know the growth is exponential, and Covid patients don't just stay a few nights and then they leave - they often use the bed for months.
Certainly what could have been done better is to set up a better emergency system, educate more nurses in the last two years..., because actually there are less nurses than in the first wave because many quit due to the stress and being over worked... We are really a very, very slow country when things need quick reactions... But that doesn't change the fact that the deaths numbers aren't low and the number of patients is high.
I wondered how much the fact that the UK is relatively isolated in geographic (and now also political) terms in comparison to Germany/ the EU countries plays a role, and also how much fall holiday travelling contributed to this situation - are there even more extensive school holidays in the UK, I don't think so if I remember correctly?
The numbers in Spain and Italy are also a lot lower though and I suppose that's due to the vaccine uptake there and also due to the heavier earlier exposition.
- Aug 29, 2009
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yeah, of course, but that's exactly what the chart shows. "Unexposed and unvaccinated" means not vaccinated, and not immune due to prior infeection.
The Tweet Jagartrott linked above has a better visualization of the same data:
Source for the vaccination data is the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. I tried to check for up to date 80+ vaccination numbers for comparison, but apparently Germany didn't report any this week, meaning they are not listed:
- Aug 29, 2009
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Source for the vaccination data is the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. I tried to check for up to date 80+ vaccination numbers for comparison, but apparently Germany didn't report any this week, meaning they are not listed:
I just checked some older reports as well, and it seems like Germany and the Netherlands don't send these age-related vaccination numbers to the ECDC at all.
To be honest, it is a bit odd then, that those are the two main outliners among the western EU countries in the London study quoted above. Maybe some numbers not quite up to date were used instead?
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Cookster15
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Scientists warn of new Covid variant with high number of mutations
The B.1.1.529 variant was first spotted in Botswana and six cases have been found in South Africawww.theguardian.com
Dr Meera Chand says...
I also don't see any spike in South Africa's daily case count - to the contrary that country looks like its in a good situation at the moment assuming the daily data is an accurate sample of what is actually happening there. But yes this is another example why the world can't relax with this mutating scourge - and we still don't know where it came from.
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They've gone from a couple of hundred cases to thousands in no time.
And there's this:
And there's this:
- Jun 9, 2014
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Yeah, nothing has outcompeted delta like that. There could be sampling issues with those numbers, but it is worth paying attention to. It won't be an issue in Europe or the US for at least a few months. Theoretically, this is a mutant that will accelerate talk about switching up the vaccine formulations. Appears more immune evasive than delta.They've gone from a couple of hundred cases to thousands in no time.
And there's this:
Eta. UK and Israel already banning travel to the effected countries. I doubt that will prevent spread, but delaying the spread will help.
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My main question would be: how does it compare to delta regarding the severity of the disease?
How can be that s**t so contagious for god sake. Would be great if it will be less deadly though. If it will be this transmisable and deadly as Delta we are doomed.
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Supposedly Moderna and Pfizer have said the mRNA technology makes it easier to change the formula due to mutations of the virus much faster. Hopefully they're right about that.
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I seem to remember the head of BioNTech saying it takes around 6 weeks to change their vaccine, and the Pfizer CEO said they could get a new vaccine 'ready' (including approval) within 100 days. It seems they should start getting busy...
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When a politician starts talking about the virus, just turn the sound down..................it helps..........as the world waits for the next move by mother nature........
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Sounds really, really concerning. I wonder, questions for the experts, how does the development of a virus usually go? I mean, there are many viruses in the world and they do not constantly get more aggressive, right...? Didn't I read that a virus that gets more transmissible usually becoming less severe as well?
Now there's even talk again of a possible strict Christmas lockdown... will this never end?
Maybe now, after two years, it's finally time to seriously improve the whole health system, and not just go from one contact/ transmission measure to the next one...
Now there's even talk again of a possible strict Christmas lockdown... will this never end?
Maybe now, after two years, it's finally time to seriously improve the whole health system, and not just go from one contact/ transmission measure to the next one...
Meanwhile in Slovakia bizzare universe they introduced proposal to bribe seniors to get a vaccine 500 eur cupon for restaurants, hotels, services for seniors vaccinated 3rd shot. Non vaccinate have a chance. They can used it after they will get all three shots sometime in next summer.
500 eur cupon for restaurants, hotels, services for seniors vaccinated 3rd shot. Non vaccinate have a chance. They can used it after they will get all three shots sometime in next summer.just in time for new earnings window next year...you have to appreciate a virus that follows economic schedule
All time panic. We know little about the variation yet thumbs up on the bad news. It could be following similar patterns of more transmissible and less harmful. Pfizer and Moderna both indicated they can alter the vax to keep up with vatiants. But why wait to panic on a forum?
- Jan 4, 2020
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Yeah, countries are stopping travelling again and experts are saying it's really concerning, but of course it's just people on a forum panicking...
However, if it should turn out to not be problematic or even helpful in pushing Delta aside, good for all of us.
It would be quite christmas miracle. I am sceptical maybe even depressed.
However world need some miracle after two years of bad news.
Again basic ethics and simple math discarded. @90-100 million Americans are saying:
We have vaccines we don't want them.
We don't care about the public at large, if your area hospitals and clinics get overwhelmed it's of little to no consequences to me.
unwanted,unused, over produced vaccine going to waste is a non issue.
Food,supply chain issues,again an inconvenience I can overcome.
The public panic was never needed. Central information distribution..having a few key collection points,vetting the data and distribution.
The system we have after 2 years..podcasters,TV hosts and reality TV stars are central information hubs for millions of Americans.
And the basics..are you overweight? It's now at a different state of emergency? Are you insured ? Same as being fat..and here's one for the rest of the western world..do you have a primary care physician? Do you have a regular doctor!!!? 10's of millions of people living in the US didn't,don't have a doctor before,during or after the main surge of the pandemic.
So when you get on a plane and the person next to you takes off their shoes, starts watching a Living Dead marathon wo headphones at 2am in the middle seat, eating chilli covered Corn Nuts remember that they are doing nothing wrong in their mind..
when people say through action and inaction..we don't hear your cries doctor..you are not worth listening to..I am more important than any other thing..ask where they are from..you will probably guess by the Crocs and cargo shorts,but ask anyway.
when Operation Fast Track started, scientists predicting that capacity would quickly outpace demand..it did..predicted emergency public service announcements using specific targeting data to reach the most at risk..never happened..tests for anyone who wants one..still not a reality..you can pee on a stick to know if you are pregnant..which I guess is also life or death,but you can't test yourself Monday or Sunday night to confirm hangover or the other Corona..
We have a solution to our economic ills, just @100 million here saying that they know better..We don't want China virus but those same people will Black Friday trample one another to get a non infectious TV or patio furniture set!!!oh the irony
- Jun 9, 2014
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I have heard the same trope frequently about transmission making viruses less deadly, but it is not something that is universally true. Often it might appear that a virus is weakening. For instance, we have seen fatalities falling in places like the UK. But the 'weakening ' is actually populations gaining immunity. Novelty is what make viruses dangerous. Spanish flu would not kill 100m people if it were released in 2021 because everybody has some pre existing immunity to its viral descendants. In 1917-8, it was novel, so it was very deadly. Viruses and their host species usually find a dynamic equilibrium where you don't see much change over time, but that requires time and SC2 is still adapting.
We are going to see a lot of stories over the next month about how immune evasive omicron is. It will take longer to see how serious it is compared to delta.
Unrelated to Omicron, here is a paper that shows why the vaccinated are probably much less contagious.
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfPCDoherty/status/1463363625356181506
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