Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[movingtarget]

Covid cases rise in north-eastern US, driven by the BA.2 subvariant

The subvariant of Omicron that’s more transmissible than BA.1 was responsible for an estimated 86% of new US cases last week

www.theguardian.com

 

[movingtarget]

Will China’s zero-Covid policy bring the world’s factory grinding to a halt?

Huawei executive warns of ‘massive losses’ in tech sector as tensions rise over strict lockdowns

www.theguardian.com

 

[jmdirt]

Will China’s zero-Covid policy bring the world’s factory grinding to a halt?

Huawei executive warns of ‘massive losses’ in tech sector as tensions rise over strict lockdowns

www.theguardian.com

I have pondered that title several times. If China is mostly shut down, it has to affect the supply of so many products. Do other suppliers (ie: India) have the capacity to up supply? Some of the supply probably isn't duplicated elsewhere though. What will this do to China? As the article talks about, certain sectors might get hit harder than others.

 

[movingtarget]

I have pondered that title several times. If China is mostly shut down, it has to affect the supply of so many products. Do other suppliers (ie: India) have the capacity to up supply? Some of the supply probably isn't duplicated elsewhere though. What will this do to China? As the article talks about, certain sectors might get hit harder than others.

It seems that product shortages are already being felt across the globe. Some of the problems are huge increases in shipping costs and fuel, a shortage of shipping containers, some countries have driver shortages due to all sorts of reasons, among many other things. The war in Ukraine is also causing problems as many countries depend on Ukraine for their wheat and fertilizer and the Russians have blockaded the Black Sea. Doubtless many air freight companies also were casualties of the pandemic. Many economies are experiencing high rates of inflation also.

 

[Unchained]

I have pondered that title several times. If China is mostly shut down, it has to affect the supply of so many products. Do other suppliers (ie: India) have the capacity to up supply? Some of the supply probably isn't duplicated elsewhere though. What will this do to China? As the article talks about, certain sectors might get hit harder than others.

So where does this leave small and large economies? Will the US develop domestic medical machine manufacturers by the thousands? Clothing,bicycle frames,groups,wheels,tires,clothing,shoes? IC chips,phones,computers? The list is endless. And the obvious answer is not no. But if Covid keeps on..and it will drastic capital expenditure and big bang price hikes are our future. This is a crazy simple lesson in cause and effect..for millions Covid in China was nothing to worry about..wow was that the myopic view of the world..
And now the triumphant return of Broadway shows looks premature..

 

[jmdirt]

So where does this leave small and large economies? Will the US develop domestic medical machine manufacturers by the thousands? Clothing,bicycle frames,groups,wheels,tires,clothing,shoes? IC chips,phones,computers? The list is endless. And the obvious answer is not no. But if Covid keeps on..and it will drastic capital expenditure and big bang price hikes are our future. This is a crazy simple lesson in cause and effect..for millions Covid in China was nothing to worry about..wow was that the myopic view of the world..
And now the triumphant return of Broadway shows looks premature..

Micron, which has a campus here, is upping their chip production, but they won't get close to filling the gap. Bikes , bike parts, and accessories will continue to have issues. Depending on the product, bike stuff is also made in Japan, Taiwan, India, etc. But you can't have a massive producer/exporter like China 'shut down' and not feel it globally.

 

[Nomad]

The question is why is China forcibly locking down 25 million people in Shanghai over the Omicron variant? Sure, positive cases are exploding but looking at their data deaths are flat & hospitalizations are slightly increasing mainly with the elderly. And they're reporting that many positive cases are asymptomatic but these people are forcibly removed from their homes and mass quarantined at government sites for 14 days.

Shanghai cops in hazmat suits clash with citizens over COVID lockdowns

Furious Shanghai residents clashed with hazmat-suited police Thursday after they were ordered to give up their homes so COVID-19 patients can isolate.

www.google.com

This is eerie: Locked down people screaming for help from their homes at night?

View: https://youtu.be/hAuFsjBxEVo


They even got the robot dogs out in full force (can you imagine this hideous device roaming the streets of America? Lol).

- YouTube

Auf YouTube findest du die angesagtesten Videos und Tracks. Außerdem kannst du eigene Inhalte hochladen und mit Freunden oder gleich der ganzen Welt teilen.

youtube.com

 

[Koronin]

Micron, which has a campus here, is upping their chip production, but they won't get close to filling the gap. Bikes , bike parts, and accessories will continue to have issues. Depending on the product, bike stuff is also made in Japan, Taiwan, India, etc. But you can't have a massive producer/exporter like China 'shut down' and not feel it globally.

The very high end bike stuff is made in Europe. Yes some bike stuff we'll continue to have issues with.

So where does this leave small and large economies? Will the US develop domestic medical machine manufacturers by the thousands? Clothing,bicycle frames,groups,wheels,tires,clothing,shoes? IC chips,phones,computers? The list is endless. And the obvious answer is not no. But if Covid keeps on..and it will drastic capital expenditure and big bang price hikes are our future. This is a crazy simple lesson in cause and effect..for millions Covid in China was nothing to worry about..wow was that the myopic view of the world..
And now the triumphant return of Broadway shows looks premature..

Some of those depends on where they are made as certain things are made in multiple countries. A lot of clothing is made in other Asian countries like Vietnam and many South American countries.

Will production come back to the US? Who knows. I wouldn't be shocked to see some of that production end up in Central/South American countries.

 

[djpbaltimore]

The question is why is China forcibly locking down 25 million people in Shanghai over the Omicron variant? Sure, positive cases are exploding but looking at their data deaths are flat & hospitalizations are slightly increasing mainly with the elderly. And they're reporting that many positive cases are asymptomatic but these people are forcibly removed from their homes and mass quarantined at government sites for 14 days.

Shanghai cops in hazmat suits clash with citizens over COVID lockdowns

Furious Shanghai residents clashed with hazmat-suited police Thursday after they were ordered to give up their homes so COVID-19 patients can isolate.

www.google.com

This is eerie: Locked down people screaming for help from their homes at night?

View: https://youtu.be/hAuFsjBxEVo


They even got the robot dogs out in full force (can you imagine this hideous device roaming the streets of America? Lol).

- YouTube

Auf YouTube findest du die angesagtesten Videos und Tracks. Außerdem kannst du eigene Inhalte hochladen und mit Freunden oder gleich der ganzen Welt teilen.

youtube.com

Their death numbers are not believable. The thing that we have to remember is that half their elderly are not vaxxed and the vaccine they did get is less effective than the ones in the west. They are locking down because they have no other choice. If they let go of the rope, they will become Hong kong.

 

[jmdirt]

The very high end bike stuff is made in Europe. Yes some bike stuff we'll continue to have issues with.

With that list of countries I meant Shimano, SRAM, tires, a lot of frames, etc.. India, for 'affordable' kit.

Nike shut down their South America plant (I think), but I wonder if they will/can crank it back up? They lost two (ish) months of production in their Vietnam plants.

I don't see a lot of production 'coming back' to the USA. Examples like Micron ramping up, sure, but too much of the manufacturing has been gone for too long to get it up and running in a reasonable (useful) time, plus it will cost too much for most BODs/investors.

 

[Ultrairon]

The question is why is China forcibly locking down 25 million people in Shanghai over the Omicron variant? Sure, positive cases are exploding but looking at their data deaths are flat & hospitalizations are slightly increasing mainly with the elderly. And they're reporting that many positive cases are asymptomatic but these people are forcibly removed from their homes and mass quarantined at government sites for 14 days.

Shanghai cops in hazmat suits clash with citizens over COVID lockdowns

Furious Shanghai residents clashed with hazmat-suited police Thursday after they were ordered to give up their homes so COVID-19 patients can isolate.

www.google.com

This is eerie: Locked down people screaming for help from their homes at night?

View: https://youtu.be/hAuFsjBxEVo


They even got the robot dogs out in full force (can you imagine this hideous device roaming the streets of America? Lol).

- YouTube

Auf YouTube findest du die angesagtesten Videos und Tracks. Außerdem kannst du eigene Inhalte hochladen und mit Freunden oder gleich der ganzen Welt teilen.

youtube.com

And they are killing peoples pets when their owners test positive. No big deal and I would guess these thumbs up folks here will support such a lock down and zerocovid approach. They act like it with their posts. Cases go up we get the big thumbs up crowd here.

A Covid worker beat a dog to death in Shanghai after its owner tested positive | CNN

A pet dog was beaten to death by a health worker in Shanghai in an incident that sparked fury online, offering a glimpse into the growing frustrations of locked-down residents in China's Covid-19 hotspot.

www.cnn.com

‘Don’t take him away’: Dog owner’s plea as videos emerge of pet killings in Shanghai

A number of videos have emerged from Shanghai of pets being killed over fears they will spread Covid

www.nationalworld.com

https://www.heraldandnews.com/news/nation_world/dystopian-disturbance-shanghai-lockdown-shows-distressing-dog-culls-covid-drones-shuts-down-port/article_7215a10c-daeb-593e-aa9c-09d48b691e58.html

Coronavirus in Shanghai: the videos of brutal pet sacrifices that outrage the population

Within the framework of the “zero COVID” policy, the authorities fear that the dogs and cats of infected people are a vector of contagion and opt for the most inhumane measure. SENSITIVE IMAGES

www.infobae.com

Weird now some here are suddenly worried about cycling parts.

 

[Ultrairon]

With that list of countries I meant Shimano, SRAM, tires, a lot of frames, etc.. India, for 'affordable' kit.

Nike shut down their South America plant (I think), but I wonder if they will/can crank it back up? They lost two (ish) months of production in their Vietnam plants.

I don't see a lot of production 'coming back' to the USA. Examples like Micron ramping up, sure, but too much of the manufacturing has been gone for too long to get it up and running in a reasonable (useful) time, plus it will cost too much for most BODs/investors.

Nike is a slave labor camp with covid the company could care less.

 

[Unchained]

The question is why is China forcibly locking down 25 million people in Shanghai over the Omicron variant? Sure, positive cases are exploding but looking at their data deaths are flat & hospitalizations are slightly increasing mainly with the elderly. And they're reporting that many positive cases are asymptomatic but these people are forcibly removed from their homes and mass quarantined at government sites for 14 days.

Shanghai cops in hazmat suits clash with citizens over COVID lockdowns

Furious Shanghai residents clashed with hazmat-suited police Thursday after they were ordered to give up their homes so COVID-19 patients can isolate.

www.google.com

This is eerie: Locked down people screaming for help from their homes at night?

View: https://youtu.be/hAuFsjBxEVo


They even got the robot dogs out in full force (can you imagine this hideous device roaming the streets of America? Lol).

- YouTube

Auf YouTube findest du die angesagtesten Videos und Tracks. Außerdem kannst du eigene Inhalte hochladen und mit Freunden oder gleich der ganzen Welt teilen.

youtube.com

I certainly don't know the big picture,long game that China is pursuing but w an ever more fragile economy and enormous population, and a medical infrastructure that doesn't have headroom to respond to big multiple waves it looks like a game of whack a mole on a Chinese scale looks like the worse choice. If a Covid surge cripples 4-5 big cities a large scale recession in China probably has them really afraid.
The dependency of the United States on the Chinese economy is mind blowing..and a specific tie, the medical devices and technology that the US gets from others is enormous..I think given world wide inflation and sudden(@2years) complete do over start up costs in every industry in the United States,looks super complicated..so buy PPE and medical devices from China until the domestic capacity is established..years away..and at staggering price increases.
motorcycle dealers in S.California say that current forecasts have market without inventories for all of 2022 and 2023 is still an unknown.
In the SW United States there are many quality bike builders but nobody that can turn out thousands of affordable,semi affordable carbon bicycle frames..manufacturing bicycle components on scale,again looks to be a bridge to far..Many of the advertisers on Cyclingnews sell Shimano and Sram for under $1600 US for the entire group..and when you look at the exotics..crank set w no chain rings for @$1200 +and clothing!!? Before Covid wide range of Chinese made..and thinking of motorcycle jackets,boots..bicycle clothing and shoes being manufactured on scale in the United States is way scary..I get sticker shock looking at brands like Assos..just wondering were the confluence will come together post Covid..will consumers pay 100,200,300% more for clothing and special bike shoes?
Covid has turned 2 wheel everything upside down

 

[Oldermanish]

I certainly don't know the big picture,long game that China is pursuing but w an ever more fragile economy and enormous population, and a medical infrastructure that doesn't have headroom to respond to big multiple waves it looks like a game of whack a mole on a Chinese scale looks like the worse choice. If a Covid surge cripples 4-5 big cities a large scale recession in China probably has them really afraid.
The dependency of the United States on the Chinese economy is mind blowing..and a specific tie, the medical devices and technology that the US gets from others is enormous..I think given world wide inflation and sudden(@2years) complete do over start up costs in every industry in the United States,looks super complicated..so buy PPE and medical devices from China until the domestic capacity is established..years away..and at staggering price increases.
motorcycle dealers in S.California say that current forecasts have market without inventories for all of 2022 and 2023 is still an unknown.
In the SW United States there are many quality bike builders but nobody that can turn out thousands of affordable,semi affordable carbon bicycle frames..manufacturing bicycle components on scale,again looks to be a bridge to far..Many of the advertisers on Cyclingnews sell Shimano and Sram for under $1600 US for the entire group..and when you look at the exotics..crank set w no chain rings for @$1200 +and clothing!!? Before Covid wide range of Chinese made..and thinking of motorcycle jackets,boots..bicycle clothing and shoes being manufactured on scale in the United States is way scary..I get sticker shock looking at brands like Assos..just wondering were the confluence will come together post Covid..will consumers pay 100,200,300% more for clothing and special bike shoes?
Covid has turned 2 wheel everything upside down

China was on the economic razor's edge pre-covid. A stock market that is pure vaporized gambling and "real estate" operations like Evergrande creating huge vacant cities. Cities with condos purchased by newly-found stock wealth backed up by very little. Their consumerism appetite will not turn off easily and economic failure will take decades to repair.
The impact on the US is serious and it's not just about hobbyists whining about bike parts. China's need to politically control appears to be trumping the medical situation; purely to keep feeble growth positive. Bad position to be in.

 

[jmdirt]

I certainly don't know the big picture,long game that China is pursuing but w an ever more fragile economy and enormous population, and a medical infrastructure that doesn't have headroom to respond to big multiple waves it looks like a game of whack a mole on a Chinese scale looks like the worse choice. If a Covid surge cripples 4-5 big cities a large scale recession in China probably has them really afraid.
The dependency of the United States on the Chinese economy is mind blowing..and a specific tie, the medical devices and technology that the US gets from others is enormous..I think given world wide inflation and sudden(@2years) complete do over start up costs in every industry in the United States,looks super complicated..so buy PPE and medical devices from China until the domestic capacity is established..years away..and at staggering price increases.
motorcycle dealers in S.California say that current forecasts have market without inventories for all of 2022 and 2023 is still an unknown.
In the SW United States there are many quality bike builders but nobody that can turn out thousands of affordable,semi affordable carbon bicycle frames..manufacturing bicycle components on scale,again looks to be a bridge to far..Many of the advertisers on Cyclingnews sell Shimano and Sram for under $1600 US for the entire group..and when you look at the exotics..crank set w no chain rings for @$1200 +and clothing!!? Before Covid wide range of Chinese made..and thinking of motorcycle jackets,boots..bicycle clothing and shoes being manufactured on scale in the United States is way scary..I get sticker shock looking at brands like Assos..just wondering were the confluence will come together post Covid..will consumers pay 100,200,300% more for clothing and special bike shoes?
Covid has turned 2 wheel everything upside down

Shimano told reps that they would not be back to 2019 levels until 2025 (that is obviously assuming no more big shut downs). I've talked to two shop owners on the trail: Yeti and Santa Cruz both have frames, but are struggling to get parts to hang on them so that they can sell them. I understand that Ibis is the same as well. They're small companies though right, but TREK is in the same situation.

Obviously our struggle to get the bikes and parts that we want is not as important as the human cost.

 

[Cookster15]

According to Worldometer China has recorded 9 Covid deaths since April 2020. China’s official death rate (% daily deaths divided by daily cases) looks to be rapidly plummeting with the rising omicron variant case counts.

Meanwhile in my country few are talking about Covid (first it was Ukraine now we have a Federal election approaching). But I think China may be forced to reassess its elimination strategy?

Their economy can only crash if they maintain an elimination strategy? It can’t be crashed by the ‘debilitating’ effects of a virus which causes mild illness in 99.8% of cases (Worldometer again).

 

[Cookster15]

China was on the economic razor's edge pre-covid. A stock market that is pure vaporized gambling and "real estate" operations like Evergrande creating huge vacant cities. Cities with condos purchased by newly-found stock wealth backed up by very little. Their consumerism appetite will not turn off easily and economic failure will take decades to repair.
The impact on the US is serious and it's not just about hobbyists whining about bike parts. China's need to politically control appears to be trumping the medical situation; purely to keep feeble growth positive. Bad position to be in.

All things are relative. The latest economic forecasts for China (published in February) expect economic growth in 2022 of just under 5%. It is then expected to sit close to 5% until 2026. Feeble is not the word I would use to describe it?

 

[Oldermanish]

All things are relative. The latest economic forecasts for China (published in February) expect economic growth in 2022 of just under 5%. It is then expected to sit close to 5% until 2026. Feeble is not the word I would use to describe it?

China government forecasts are part of the slight of hand. Their actual GDP decline has been ongoing.
From Macrotrends on China's GDP:
Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2010 U.S. dollars. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources.

• China gdp growth rate for 2020 was 2.30%, a 3.65% decline from 2019.
• China gdp growth rate for 2019 was 5.95%, a 0.8% decline from 2018.
• China gdp growth rate for 2018 was 6.75%, a 0.2% decline from 2017.
• China gdp growth rate for 2017 was 6.95%, a 0.1% increase from 2016.

also: 2016 was 6.85%, 2015 was 7.02%. While this still shows growth; their domestic real estate market is beyond a bubble with almost every lender abandoning Evergrande's estimated $300 Billion debt. Small investors in their projects may have equity but when the larger assets start swirling down the drain it creates a big vortex. I have no idea how much flight capital is going to healthier economies but the individual on the street is the one that loses in their totalitarian system. It will hurt all economies but may strengthen and EU/US bond.
I'm not an economist but have shied from Chinese-based funds and stocks since 2017.
What does it means for future pandemic response?

 

[Ultrairon]

According to Worldometer China has recorded 9 Covid deaths since April 2020. China’s official death rate (% daily deaths divided by daily cases) looks to be rapidly plummeting with the rising omicron variant case counts.

Meanwhile in my country few are talking about Covid (first it was Ukraine now we have a Federal election approaching). But I think China may be forced to reassess its elimination strategy?

Their economy can only crash if they maintain an elimination strategy? It can’t be crashed by the ‘debilitating’ effects of a virus which causes mild illness in 99.8% of cases (Worldometer again).

I can't trust anything out of China. After all people here want me to believe a bat jumped up into coronavirus and infected humans after how many years????. Meanwhile no one can find that bat or anymore like that bat. Hell even just one animal from that area at the time might serve as proof but yet the Communist government refuse to reflect or investigate.

ahhhh who cares China's numbers and data are perfectly believable. Why question what they are saying. They are at 100% vaxed already right? Wait what ??:::: the worlds greatest communist health care system has yet to vax everyone? Say its not so.

bye bye mandates from the tyrannical left on transit here in the usa. These judges I tell ya. Now where is my component group.

 

[movingtarget]

According to Worldometer China has recorded 9 Covid deaths since April 2020. China’s official death rate (% daily deaths divided by daily cases) looks to be rapidly plummeting with the rising omicron variant case counts.

Meanwhile in my country few are talking about Covid (first it was Ukraine now we have a Federal election approaching). But I think China may be forced to reassess its elimination strategy?

Their economy can only crash if they maintain an elimination strategy? It can’t be crashed by the ‘debilitating’ effects of a virus which causes mild illness in 99.8% of cases (Worldometer again).

China is trying to fight Covid the same way it fights civilian dissent.........it locks it up then locks it down but the truth usually escapes anyway.........

 

[movingtarget]

US supreme court rules against air force officer who refused Covid vaccine

Majority of court sides with Pentagon over challenge by lieutenant colonel who cited religious grounds for refusal to get vaccine

www.theguardian.com

 

[movingtarget]

Australia’s Covid death toll in 2022 more than double that of previous two years

Federal health data shows 4,547 people have died of Covid-19 this year to date, compared with 2,239 over 2020 and 2021

www.theguardian.com

 

[Cookster15]

China government forecasts are part of the slight of hand. Their actual GDP decline has been ongoing.
From Macrotrends on China's GDP:
Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2010 U.S. dollars. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources.

• China gdp growth rate for 2020 was 2.30%, a 3.65% decline from 2019.
• China gdp growth rate for 2019 was 5.95%, a 0.8% decline from 2018.
• China gdp growth rate for 2018 was 6.75%, a 0.2% decline from 2017.
• China gdp growth rate for 2017 was 6.95%, a 0.1% increase from 2016.

also: 2016 was 6.85%, 2015 was 7.02%. While this still shows growth; their domestic real estate market is beyond a bubble with almost every lender abandoning Evergrande's estimated $300 Billion debt. Small investors in their projects may have equity but when the larger assets start swirling down the drain it creates a big vortex. I have no idea how much flight capital is going to healthier economies but the individual on the street is the one that loses in their totalitarian system. It will hurt all economies but may strengthen and EU/US bond.
I'm not an economist but have shied from Chinese-based funds and stocks since 2017.
What does it means for future pandemic response?

I know that Chinese forecasts can be taken with a grain of salt. I agree Chinese stocks are risky. I also agree about the risks of their property market and other risks. But at this time I don’t see omicron as crashing either theirs or the west’s economies. According to what they publish China’s economy was gradually slowing pre Covid anyway - completely expected. If their property bubble bursts that’s another story. Obviously that wouldn’t be good for their pandemic response.

 

[jmdirt]

Australia’s Covid death toll in 2022 more than double that of previous two years

Federal health data shows 4,547 people have died of Covid-19 this year to date, compared with 2,239 over 2020 and 2021

www.theguardian.com

According to one of the forum members this is not true.

 

[movingtarget]

According to one of the forum members this is not true.

I'm not a fact checker or a statistician just a reader...........I haven't seen or heard anything in the media that disputes that information at least so far...............