Could a doped EPO Era "1 day classics rider" win the TdF 7 Times in a Row?

[Squares]

Lance raced at under 140 lbs after chemo?

Uhm, no, I didn't say he raced at under 140. I said he lost weight. In the end, I also said that his race weight was 7-8 kg lower after his cancer treatments.

The numbers I've heard had him at around 180 prior to chemo and that he dropped down to about 140 in the first 3 cycles of chemo.

Then, when chemo was over and he could start to eat and train again, he built back up with the majority of the weight gain in the legs as he focused his workload on the legs rather than the upper body.

Have you ever seen a chemo patient after 2-3 cycles of chemo compared to their prior weights?

 

[Dr. Maserati]

Alberto finished 31st in his first GT at 22, does that make Andy better?

Andy has 3 second places in the GTs, you're comparing him to the wrong guy...

Yes - as i was responding to a specific comment made by 'Polish' - which was not about wins, but placings in their first GT.

 

[slcbiker]

Ehh. I've been a chemo patient. Not everyone loses weight. Depends on what kind of cancer, what kind of chemo, and how it affects you. My nausea was actually better if I ate high carb high fat kinds of foods.

At any rate, unless you've started off overweight, you're not going to lose 20kg/45lbs without some serious negative effects. Losing 7-8kg off a off a slightly heavy cyclist body might help. 20kg would be a problem.

 

[pmcg76]

Do stagiaires count as pros? I don't know if Lance was a stagiaire in 1992 or if he had a proper contract and just chose to stay as an amateur so he could be in the Olympics, I'm just asking because it's something that has always bugged me.

Lance was a staigiaire with Motorola up until the Olympics after which he immediately became Pro with Motorola, lets be honest he was effectively a Pro once he was riding for Motorola through 92 although he also race on the US national team. He finished last in his first official European Pro race, San Sebastian but then won a stage in the Tour of Burgos or Galicia, not sure which and also won a pre-worlds race in Italy. He also competed in the Nissan Classic(Tour of Ireland) that year as well as other races.

A lot of riders turned pro immediately after the Olympics or even before if they were not selected for their national teams. For example Mercatone Uno(later Saeco) signed seven Italians amateurs including Michele Bartoli, Fran Casagrande, Paolo Lanfranchi &Massimo Donati once they had not been picked for the Italian team.

 

[Oldman]

But Hinault raced for three+ years under Guimard before being allowed to start the TdF. Different program.

Talking about JF Bernard, not Hinault. He was a flash in the pan that had stellar results and was thought to be the second coming of Hinault.

 

[ultimobici]

But Hinault raced for three+ years under Guimard before being allowed to start the TdF. Different program.



And Lance started and finished Milan San Remo and Tour of Flanders multiple times.
Won the coveted "Ardennes Trophy" also.
Podiumed at LBL how many times?
Won the Fleche.

Vino and Cadel COMBINED can not match Lance's 1 day results

To compare Armstrong to Hinault is laughable.

Hinault was held back and gradually had his programme increased so that he was ready to ride the Tour and win it at 23, his first attempt. The other reason for Hinault being held back was that Gitane's team leader was 1976 Tour winner Lucien Van Impe. Hinault had already won LBL, GW, GP des Nations & Le Dauphine in '77 as well as the 78 Vuelta prior to his Tour debut.

In contrast Armstrong was 22 when he started his first Tour and had won nothing to indicate that he was a potential GT contender let alone a winner. He had the look of a potential Classics contender as was borne out by his 94 & 95 results.

Multiple GT winners have never come out of the blue. Any surprise winners of the Giro, Tour or Vuelta have rapidly faded back into the peleton. Riis is a prime example. By his own admission, he only had the legs to defeat Indurain after he'd dosed himself to the gills with EPO.

Every winner of the last 40 years has shown their talent early on. Armstrong didn't exhibit it at all until late 98 with 4th in the Vuelta. Prior to that, every time the road tipped up towards the mountains he lost minutes and every time a stopwatch was clicked, he lost even more. Had you asked any die hard cycling fan or pundit in 1992-1996 about the chances of LA winning any GT or mountainous stage race, they'd have laughed at you.

 

[ultimobici]

His racing weight dropped by 7-8 kg from before chemo to after, and that was his performance levels. Given mucsle atrophy during chemo, 20 kg is mild.

Wo, you have any facts to back up your comment that you can add, or do you prefer to just make smart *** comments?

I'd prefer if you could come up with some data to counter my statement, but I suspect you cannot.

The evidence presented by LA & his legal team in the SCA suit puts his weight loss at 1-2kgs. The only way to get a greater difference is to use the 72kg Ed Coyle cites as what Armstrong thought his weight was and then use his off season weight of 78.9kg from Nov 92. Then you can get 6.9kgs. But the problem is Armstrong's recorded weights paint a completely different picture

Nov 92 - 78.9kg
Jan 93 - 76.5kg
Sept 93 - 75.1kg
Aug 97 - 79.5kg
Nov 99 - 79.7kg

So from 92 to 99 he put almost a kilo of weight on!

Figures from Ed Coyle's article Journal of Applied Physiology published March 2005

 

[Race Radio]

Eddie B was nuts.

To keep his job he would say "This guy can win the Tour" Of course once he lost his job he said that Armstrong should not have even been on the Atlanta Olympic team as there were a bunch of guys that were faster.

EPO effects riders in different ways. Ulrich was a bunch sprinter. We he got on the Telekom doping program he was transformed from a guy getting dropped at training camp to the podium of the Tour.

Armstrong started using EPO in 1995. No surprise this is when he discovered he could climb and TT.

He sure was fat back then

 

[hrotha]

Lance was a staigiaire with Motorola up until the Olympics after which he immediately became Pro with Motorola, lets be honest he was effectively a Pro once he was riding for Motorola through 92 although he also race on the US national team. He finished last in his first official European Pro race, San Sebastian but then won a stage in the Tour of Burgos or Galicia, not sure which and also won a pre-worlds race in Italy. He also competed in the Nissan Classic(Tour of Ireland) that year as well as other races.

A lot of riders turned pro immediately after the Olympics or even before if they were not selected for their national teams. For example Mercatone Uno(later Saeco) signed seven Italians amateurs including Michele Bartoli, Fran Casagrande, Paolo Lanfranchi &Massimo Donati once they had not been picked for the Italian team.

Thanks for the explanation. One question, though: I thought you could only have stagiaires during the final part of the season? Starting from August or thereabouts? The road race was on August 2nd 1992, if Google isn't lying.

Removing Lance from the equation, I still don't know if for example next year Phinney could be said to be a neo-pro or not.

 

[Gcraenen]

I'll betcha that Greg LeMond guy coulda won 7 TDF's and a bunch more Classics if we could hop in a time machine and pump him full of drugs.

... and remove the buckshot.

 

[pmcg76]

Thanks for the explanation. One question, though: I thought you could only have stagiaires during the final part of the season? Starting from August or thereabouts? The road race was on August 2nd 1992, if Google isn't lying.

Removing Lance from the equation, I still don't know if for example next year Phinney could be said to be a neo-pro or not.

Well, technically he wasnt a staigaire, he was sponsored by Motorola through 1992 but rode most of his races with the US National team. Basically Motorola had him signed up to turn pro as soon as the Olympics were over.

I always wondered about riders who turned pro or were on trial for half a season too. For example, Alex Zulle joined up with ONCE in late 91 and managed to place 4th in the Tour of Catalonia(in September) behind Indurain, Rominger which was an incredible perfromance for a guy straight out of the amateurs. Was he then a neo-pro in 92 when he had an incredible series of results.

 

[Franklin]

Lance was a first year neo-pro that race.
Those results are awesome for a neo-pro.
Coming after a stage win that year.
There has not been a neo-pro success like Lance's since....Lance.

Polish, go look at a certain guy called "Jan Ulrich". truly, try at least to be a bit factual, it makes your posts better

But that's ok, I'm sure in a few years you might even know a bit about cycling.

 

[Nick777]

His racing weight dropped by 7-8 kg from before chemo to after, and that was his performance levels. Given mucsle atrophy during chemo, 20 kg is mild.

Wo, you have any facts to back up your comment that you can add, or do you prefer to just make smart *** comments?

I'd prefer if you could come up with some data to counter my statement, but I suspect you cannot.

Lance's 'weight loss' was invented as a plausible reason as to why he could suddenly climb.

 

[Fowsto Cope-E]

Polish, how could a 1-day specialist win a GT? Because then they wouldn't be declared 1-day specialist anymore. The only way this could happen is if they go through a serious transformation like lance went through. That just doesn't happen very often, so. . . by definition Lance will probably be the only 1-day specialist who goes on and wins a GT.

 

[scribe]

Lance never was a one day specialist.

 

[redtreviso]

Lance never was a one day specialist.

People only kindly said Lance was a one day specialist to mean he was no GT rider.

 

[Polish]

Polish, go look at a certain guy called "Jan Ulrich". truly, try at least to be a bit factual, it makes your posts better

But that's ok, I'm sure in a few years you might even know a bit about cycling.

Franklin, I had already been following Pro cycling for a few years when Lance had his spectacular neo-pro year in 1993.

I remember thinking back then - "Gosh - this guy is the next Greg LeMond. He is going to win the Tour de France someday!" Of course, many others had the same thought. No nostradamus me lol.

Lance turned pro in late 1992, and in 1993, his FIRST full year as a Pro he had won:

1st World Road Race Champion UCI Road World Championships
1st US National Road Race Champion
1st Stage 8 Tour de France
1st Overall Tour of America
1st Trofeo Laigueglia
1st Thrift Drug Classic
1st Overall Kmart West Virginia Classic
1st Prologue
1st Stage 1
2nd Overall Tour du Pont
1st Stage 5
3rd Overall Tour of Sweden
1st Stage 3

Jan Ullich, on the other hand, turned pro in late 1994, and in 1995, his FIRST full year as a Pro he had won:

National Time Trial Champion
Tour du Limousin
2nd place overall

 

[Neworld]

Ehh. I've been a chemo patient. Not everyone loses weight. Depends on what kind of cancer, what kind of chemo, and how it affects you. My nausea was actually better if I ate high carb high fat kinds of foods..

Depends on the chemo, the dosing and what underlying neoplastic insult one has. Chemo for testicular cancers don't tend to lose weight but can lose LBM through inactivity.

NW

 

[Polish]

Actually look at Alpes' Avatar. Bernard had arguably the best neo-pro career and many thought it was unusual.

Do have a link to Bernard's neo pro results?
Doubt that they were anywhere near as awesome as Lance's lol.

 

[scribe]

Franklin, I had already been following Pro cycling for a few years when Lance had his spectacular neo-pro year in 1993.

I remember thinking back then - "Gosh - this guy is the next Greg LeMond. He is going to win the Tour de France someday!" Of course, many others had the same thought. No nostradamus me lol.

Lance turned pro in late 1992, and in 1993, his FIRST full year as a Pro he had won:

1st World Road Race Champion UCI Road World Championships
1st US National Road Race Champion
1st Stage 8 Tour de France
1st Overall Tour of America
1st Trofeo Laigueglia
1st Thrift Drug Classic
1st Overall Kmart West Virginia Classic
1st Prologue
1st Stage 1
2nd Overall Tour du Pont
1st Stage 5
3rd Overall Tour of Sweden
1st Stage 3

Jan Ullich, on the other hand, turned pro in late 1994, and in 1995, his FIRST full year as a Pro he had won:

National Time Trial Champion
Tour du Limousin
2nd place overall

Race Radio just said Lance started EPO in 1995. How are those earlier results possible?

 

[richwagmn]

Race Radio just said Lance started EPO in 1995. How are those earlier results possible?

Got me. I still stand by my first comment. Doped? Yes. Can you dope Spartacus or Boonen so they become tour winners? No way in hell.

 

[Ferminal]

Race Radio just said Lance started EPO in 1995. How are those earlier results possible?

Cadence, Recon etc?

 

[Maxiton]

Franklin, I had already been following Pro cycling for a few years when Lance had his spectacular neo-pro year in 1993.

I remember thinking back then - "Gosh - this guy is the next Greg LeMond. He is going to win the Tour de France someday!" Of course, many others had the same thought. No nostradamus me lol.

Lance turned pro in late 1992, and in 1993, his FIRST full year as a Pro he had won:

1st World Road Race Champion UCI Road World Championships
1st US National Road Race Champion
1st Stage 8 Tour de France
1st Overall Tour of America
1st Trofeo Laigueglia
1st Thrift Drug Classic
1st Overall Kmart West Virginia Classic
1st Prologue
1st Stage 1
2nd Overall Tour du Pont
1st Stage 5
3rd Overall Tour of Sweden
1st Stage 3

Jan Ullich, on the other hand, turned pro in late 1994, and in 1995, his FIRST full year as a Pro he had won:

National Time Trial Champion
Tour du Limousin
2nd place overall

+1. Good post. Lance's results in his first year were phenomenal, as you've shown. Too many on this forum are too quick to call him a no-talent or lo-talent bum, which simply diminishes the credibility of the forum. It's impossible to say how many Tours Armstrong might have won if no one had access to EPO - maybe some, or maybe none, as many here contend. (I'm not sure that everyone having access to the drugs meant that it was a level playing field - that's exactly the problem with doping - it distorts the playing field in ways that can't be accounted for.) But one thing's for sure, Armstrong was an exceptionally strong rider from the outset - and unless I'm mistaken Eddy Merckx is one of those who tipped him early as a future Tour winner.

 

[Maxiton]

Got me. I still stand by my first comment. Doped? Yes. Can you dope Spartacus or Boonen so they become tour winners? No way in hell.

I disagree. I think if you could give Spartacus the same things they were having in the 90s, and in the same amounts, he's rip it just like Indurain. He'd have to change his training and his physique a little bit, but he'd definitely dominate with the right team and tactics on the road.

 

[Dr. Maserati]

+1. Good post. Lance's results in his first year were phenomenal, as you've shown. Too many on this forum are too quick to call him a no-talent or lo-talent bum, which simply diminishes the credibility of the forum. It's impossible to say how many Tours Armstrong might have won if no one had access to EPO - maybe some, or maybe none, as many here contend. (I'm not sure that everyone having access to the drugs meant that it was a level playing field - that's exactly the problem with doping - it distorts the playing field in ways that can't be accounted for.) But one thing's for sure, Armstrong was an exceptionally strong rider from the outset - and unless I'm mistaken Eddy Merckx is one of those who tipped him early as a future Tour winner.

Actually I don't believe anyone has said that.

Many - including myself - will agree on his talent.
I remember following his progress closely at the time, but it was obvious that by the end of 1994 he was not consistent enough over 3 weeks (any 3 weeks).

You have a bad day in a 3 week GT your quest for overall glory is gone. In a clean/level environment he could have top 10s.