Polish said:
Franklin, I had already been following Pro cycling for a few years when Lance had his spectacular neo-pro year in 1993.
I remember thinking back then - "Gosh - this guy is the next Greg LeMond. He is going to win the Tour de France someday!" Of course, many others had the same thought. No nostradamus me lol.
Lance turned pro in late 1992, and in 1993, his FIRST full year as a Pro he had won:
1st World Road Race Champion UCI Road World Championships
1st US National Road Race Champion
1st Stage 8 Tour de France
1st Overall Tour of America
1st Trofeo Laigueglia
1st Thrift Drug Classic
1st Overall Kmart West Virginia Classic
1st Prologue
1st Stage 1
2nd Overall Tour du Pont
1st Stage 5
3rd Overall Tour of Sweden
1st Stage 3
Jan Ullich, on the other hand, turned pro in late 1994, and in 1995, his FIRST full year as a Pro he had won:
National Time Trial Champion
Tour du Limousin
2nd place overall
Only the highlighted wins can really be used to indicate future potential. The rest of this list are not really relevant as they were either US races, won at a time when big-hitters rarely ventured across the Atlantic to race, or they are small races that had weak fields.
Your assessment of Ullrich is a little disingenuous to say the least.
He was Junior World Road Champion in the same year as Armstrong's Oslo win.
His early results are good especially when you examine the riders he lost to.
1996 Team Deutsche Telekom 1 victoire
66eme de la Classement Coupe du monde sur route avec 15 pts.
6eme du Classic Haribo
10eme du Tour du Haut Var
12eme de la 1ere etape du Critérium International (Gaillac - Gaillac)
10eme de la 4eme etape du Grand Prix du Midi Libre (Marvejols--Marvejols)
2eme du classement général du Tour de France (Classement Général)
9eme de la 8eme etape du Tour de France (Chambery-Les Arcs)
6eme de la 9eme etape du Tour de France (Bourg Saint Maurice-Val d'IsEre CLM ind)
8eme de la 10eme etape du Tour de France (Val d'Isere-Sestriere)
17eme de la 14eme etape du Tour de France (Le Puy en Velay-Superbesse)
7eme de la 17eme etape du Tour de France (Agen-Hautacam)
4eme de la 18eme etape du Tour de France (Argeles Gozost-Pamplona)
1er de la 21eme etape du Tour de France (Bordeaux-Saint Emilion CLM Ind)
11eme du Championnat de Zurich
3eme du Grand Prix Breitling Karlsruhe
43eme du Classement U.C.I.
1995 Team Deutsche Telekom Pas de victoire
4eme du Championnat national d'Allemagne sur Route
3eme du classement général du Hofbrau Cup (Classement général)
21eme du Classica San Sebastian
2eme du classement général du Tour du Limousin (Classement général)
His 4th in the German Championship was to three of his older teammates, none of whom was a pushover
1
Bölts Udo Team Deutsche Telekom 5.55.27.
2
Heppner Jens Team Deutsche Telekom m.t.
3
Aldag Rolf Team Deutsche Telekom 1.07.
4
Ullrich Jan Team Deutsche Telekom 6.39.
5
Kummer Mario Team Deutsche Telekom m.t.
The 2nd in the
1995 Tour of Limousin was to one
Andrei Tchmil with no actual time difference!
Armstrong's early results announced a big talent,
but it was not announcing a multiple GT winner. Compare his first season with Lemond and you'll see the difference. Lemond was on Hinault's team when Hinault was at his peak and more importantly the undisputed Patron of the peleton. His 3rd in the 81 Dauphine followed by the 82 Tour de L'Avenir were incredible for a rider barely out of his teens. In 92 the closest to a Patron was Argentin who wielded nowhere near the clout Hinault had in the 70's and 80's. The peleton was less regimented, with new riders being allowed more freedom to race. In the previous decade a rider had to almost ask permission to step up and try for a victory.