Dumoulin.

[KyoGrey]

Re: Re:

It's laughable to compare him to Indurain etc. He's always shown decent performances uphill, gradually improved over the last few years. Some itt act like he's come out of nowhere.
Still suspicious to outperform this field, though most here are greatly exaggerating.

Like Indurain.

Seriously, reading some comments it seems like Indurain came out of nowhere in 1991, when he had already won numerous stage races at Domoulin's age. Volta a Catalunya and Paris-Niza amongst others...

Should have started a new paragraph after "Indurain". Dumoulin is 10kg+ lighter than Indurain was, thus it doesn't make sense to compare these two. Never intended to make it sound like Big Mig came out of nowhere.

Ah ok, my fault then.

I thought that you were implying that Indurain was merely a product of dope without natural talent.

 

[Campervan man]

Re: Re:

It's laughable to compare him to Indurain etc. He's always shown decent performances uphill, gradually improved over the last few years. Some itt act like he's come out of nowhere.
Still suspicious to outperform this field, though most here are greatly exaggerating.

Like Indurain.

Seriously, reading some comments it seems like Indurain came out of nowhere in 1991, when he had already won numerous stage races at Domoulin's age. Volta a Catalunya and Paris-Niza amongst others...

Should have started a new paragraph after "Indurain". Dumoulin is 10kg+ lighter than Indurain was, thus it doesn't make sense to compare these two. Never intended to make it sound like Big Mig came out of nowhere.

Even if Big Mig was big he was a winner of Tour de L'Avenir so had some good talent at a young age, Tom has also had good form young but this was a shock of sorts to me, he's 10+ kg heavier than Purito, Nairo and Majka who are true climbers. I'll wait for Andorra to see where he is truly at but it is a vast improvement on his previous form. I also don't think any GC guys were holding back either so it was a shock.

 

[doperhopper]

Re: Re:

It's laughable to compare him to Indurain etc. He's always shown decent performances uphill, gradually improved over the last few years. Some itt act like he's come out of nowhere.
Still suspicious to outperform this field, though most here are greatly exaggerating.

Like Indurain.

Seriously, reading some comments it seems like Indurain came out of nowhere in 1991, when he had already won numerous stage races at Domoulin's age. Volta a Catalunya and Paris-Niza amongst others...

Should have started a new paragraph after "Indurain". Dumoulin is 10kg+ lighter than Indurain was, thus it doesn't make sense to compare these two. Never intended to make it sound like Big Mig came out of nowhere.

Ah ok, my fault then.

I thought that you were implying that Indurain was merely a product of dope without natural talent.

And don't forget that using today's marginal gains, even BigMig would be less HeavyMig.

 

[The Hitch]

Re: Re:

Personally, I don't find the "first week!" protestations all that convincing. It's not like he's done this before in the many first weeks of all the stage races he's done in his career.

If he fades in a few days, that won't delete what's already happened. Not that I'm convinced he'll fade, though.

Exactly 4 years ago (to the day I think maybe even) in this very subforum, I heard this exact same - first week protestation.

Oh come on, its just the first week. He's having a good day. He's doing well because its really hot and he's used to that because he's from Kenya. Nothing to see here, he will no doubt fade soon.

They quickly changed their arguments over the coming weeks of course.

Well, obviously, whether one wants it or not, it's still the first week. Pretty much everyone defending him acknowledges that if he continues to perform throughout the race and stays among the very best, then he's worthy of suspicion. Not really comparable.

I wasn't comparing. Just latching onto hrotha's point. In fact I haven't even said a word about TD.

All my posts in this thread have been about the theory of accusing riders and whether or not its legitimate, or about other riders from the past who I know more about.

Contrary to the popular clinic sterotype of always liberally accusing everyone of doping, I personally don't accuse athletes of doping without significant evidence (when my certainty is above 99%). TD is a long way away from that for me yet, so we are on the same page there.

At the same time I also believe all scepticism is good and it is important that we discuss performances like this.

 

[WillemS]

Re: Re:

Contrary to the popular clinic stereotype of always liberally accusing everyone of doping, I personally don't accuse athletes of doping without significant evidence (when my certainty is above 99%). TD is a long way away from that for me yet, so we are on the same page there.

At the same time I also believe all skepticism is good and it is important that we discuss performances like this.

This is a healthy attitude, in my opinion.

 

[GW15something]

I seriously dont see how 1 stage win calls for him to be a dirty doper up to the gills. Its a once off performance when you look at the climb he climbed steady with front guys while Majka etc were all attacking. He rode calm and collective. He is fresh from not doing the Tour - other top contenders are all fatigued from Tour and racing crits leading up to the Vuelta to get cash, he is a great ITT and when J-Rod and Froome attacked he rode steady tempo to catch as they faded and he countered.

His size means little for a once off performance and he isnt that much heavier than Froome or Majka for that matter but have more raw power and his steady progression over the years has warranted good results. He will not hold red and will lose it on Wednesday.

Some of you are acting like he has done nothing ever until this Vuelta and all of a sudden is about to win it and its 2011.

 

[bigcog]

Re: Re:

Reminds me of all the Boonen fans a few years ago who finally accepted Boonen dopes, but they all just "knew" that Cancellara dopes way more than Boonen does and that therefore Boonen is the right guy to support.

Also those of us Contador fans who admit he dopes, but tell ourselves that he's more naturally gifted, so would be a contender anyway, therefore it's not too bad. It's just human nature to want to rationalize "your guy" this way. There's little way to know for sure whether that's actually true, but it makes fans feel better.

Some of the defense of Dumoulin sounds word-for-word like certain Froome defenses, which sounded just like defenses of other dopers. He's trying harder now. OK. At least Dumoulin didn't suck as badly as Froome in the early days. And at least he looks decent. If they're all going to dope, and the whole thing is just a sham, I don't wanna have to have look at the unfortunate alien, Mr. Sideburns, or bug-eyed LRP. That's shallow, but there it is. YMMV.

Side note: I don't mind what Fishface looks like, because I love how he tries.

Yes cos FishFace is as clean as new penny

 

[GuyIncognito]

So far this can be believable. If he does this in the high mountains, it'll be hilarious in a very sad way

 

[Nick C.]

At the Tour there was some WTF regarding Tony Gallopin after the first mountain stage. He faded. I will wait and see how things go in the high mountains.

 

[Gigs_98]

You know, I like Dumoulin but this first week just has to make you suspicious

 

[Pentacycle]

Re:

At the Tour there was some WTF regarding Tony Gallopin after the first mountain stage. He faded. I will wait and see how things go in the high mountains.

Gallopin wasn't bossing the favourites on the climbs, he was 2:22 down on Froome on PSM. And he already peaked the first week. That is not nearly as impressive as actually beating the favourites, after a tough recovery from shoulder injuries.

 

[Miburo]

Re:

At the Tour there was some WTF regarding Tony Gallopin after the first mountain stage. He faded. I will wait and see how things go in the high mountains.

Did gallopin won against piti, purito, froome and quintana in the tour on some hill? I guess i must have missed that

 

[Gung Ho Gun]

Gallopin was putting out more W/kg than Froome

 

[Nick C.]

Re: Re:

At the Tour there was some WTF regarding Tony Gallopin after the first mountain stage. He faded. I will wait and see how things go in the high mountains.

Did gallopin won against piti, purito, froome and quintana in the tour on some hill? I guess i must have missed that

I do not believe he did. But I also didn't say anything that was untrue. I'll wait. Dumoulin also wasn't pulling back attacks and riding in with Piti in the Pyrenees like Thomas was. Right now I am at eyebrow raised, waiting for the shoe to drop. (Then again I am in the section of the US where cycling is not broadcast live other than the Tour so seeing may have looked more preposterous than following online).

 

[carton]

God, 2015 in cycling is confusing as hell, and it keeps getting worse. You end up wishing guys you'd otherwise be rooting for fades so their performances look more believable. So far it's been Chaves, Gallopin, Thomas... even Froome's occasional off-days lend a shred of hope to this whole endeavour (if Froome is currently doping, the bayesian odds for Dumoulin doing what he did clean are next to nil). Dumoulin is fresher than pretty much everyone else, he's only really done well (well, superbly in fact) in a couple hills so far at the end of really flat days where he should be fresher than pretty much everybody. Wednesday will be a far more comprehensive test.

 

[The Hitch]

Re:

Gallopin was putting out more W/kg than Froome

lol, great post

 

[WillemS]

Re:

(if Froome is currently doping, the bayesian odds for Dumoulin doing what he did clean are next to nil).

Care to elaborate on that? Not the theoretical background of Bayesian statistics, but how you're able to update your posterior probabilities with such determination based on a single performance comparison. I would say that beating a doper might make it more likely that you dope, increasing the odds ratio in the favour of doping, but a "next to nil" estimate seems pretty far fetched based on this piece of introduced evidence alone. The only thing you're doing is rationalizing a gut feeling with scientific terms.

 

[noddy69]

Watched the stage and that was a proper climb with some serious gradients and a seriously ridiculous ending. I cant be bothered even trying to defend the effort somehow coming up with an excuse for actual climbers been beaten on what was a proper climb...Fresh doesnt cut it nor does past efforts or glimpses of greatness...It was a farcical end. Up there with Usain deciding he was gonna win a 5000 mtrs against that other bastion of clean sport Mo.

 

[leon993]

Just what if? What if the Peloton is cleaner than it was? Would his performance be off or on? I think we see a more non juiced Peloton. I think back to my riding days. I was a hilly puncher, and this guy who was heavy with a lot of steady power, could take me only, if he started full gaz from bottom. Only way - and there was no juice in those days. Maybe we are just seeing this cause there is little juice in Peloton?

 

[afpm90]

Re:

I seriously dont see how 1 stage win calls for him to be a dirty doper up to the gills. Its a once off performance when you look at the climb he climbed steady with front guys while Majka etc were all attacking. He rode calm and collective. He is fresh from not doing the Tour - other top contenders are all fatigued from Tour and racing crits leading up to the Vuelta to get cash, he is a great ITT and when J-Rod and Froome attacked he rode steady tempo to catch as they faded and he countered.

His size means little for a once off performance and he isnt that much heavier than Froome or Majka for that matter but have more raw power and his steady progression over the years has warranted good results. He will not hold red and will lose it on Wednesday.

Some of you are acting like he has done nothing ever until this Vuelta and all of a sudden is about to win it and its 2011.

That's not exactly how it happened. I remember him attacking three times, before the final attack for the victory, once at 2.5 km to go, the second time at 2 km to the line and finally, where he finally succeeded, at the 1.7 km mark. Check the video if you want.

 

[afpm90]

Re:

So far this can be believable. If he does this in the high mountains, it'll be hilarious in a very sad way

I agree. I can somewhat hold my skepticism for this performance and find reasons to justify it. He's fresher than the other contenders, it was a short climb that suited him, even if the gradient made me think that Dumoulin didn't stand a chance, and the others didn't consider him a threat. But if he manages to hold the red jersey in the high mountains, there'll be no doubt to me in reaching a conclusion about Dumoulin's doping.

 

[PremierAndrew]

For what it's worth, his reply when asked about doping seemed as honest and genuine as a man can when suggesting he has not done anything to violate the rules.

 

[WillemS]

Re: Re:

That's not exactly how it happened. I remember him attacking three times, before the final attack for the victory, once at 2.5 km to go, the second time at 2 km to the line and finally, where he finally succeeded, at the 1.7 km mark. Check the video if you want.

That's how it happened. The only thing in his defence is that he attacked on the flattish parts, gaining time, but losing it as soon as the gradients start to get serious again. If you watch the final kilometre, then you'll that he loses his lead as soon as they hit the steep part, only to regain contact and outsprinting Froome when the climb flattens out. So, disregarding possible clinic issues, the tactics of his ascent were spot on (attack/gain time on the flatter parts, hang on/lose a bit on the steeper parts).

 

[Miburo]

I don't care what he does in the rest of the race, with his build beating purito and froome on that hill is suspicious as ***.

 

[classicomano]

Re:

I don't care what he does in the rest of the race, with his build beating purito and froome on that hill is suspicious as ****.

Hes pretty much the same build as Froome.