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Dumoulin.

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there's always a tendency of making up stretches when unwelcome rider succeeds. he's breathing through a nose, when others hold on for dear life, he looks fresh a daisy, he could easily have ridden one more stage and not got tired etc... damn the way a rider looks can be very misleading. this season i've never seen grimace of despair on Tom's face, but that's not like it means anything.
 
Jun 8, 2016
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dacooley said:
there's always a tendency of making up stretches when unwelcome rider succeeds. he's breathing through a nose, when others hold on for dear life, he looks fresh a daisy, he could easily have ridden one more stage and not got tired etc... damn the way a rider looks can be very misleading. this season i've never seen grimace of despair on Tom's face, but that's not like it means anything.
Really? He looked really tired to me on most mountain stages
 
Jul 28, 2009
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Jagartrott said:
Roninho said:
With all the doping cases in topsports that we have seen in the past years i would think that there should be something to dig up on one of the dutch top athletes in cycling, athletics or skating. And this would be huge news.
Funny you should mention this.
Today in the news: Dutch ice skaters and cyclists using Thyroid hormone because they think it helps them lose weight and may have other benefits...
Yeah wasnt aware at the time of my post, just coincidence. But reality is that imo it should be obvious that in those sports and with the succes of certain dutch athletes chances are quite high that there is something to find.

This latest news proves that, but also points out the failings of the journalists. This is just in the news because the dutch federation issued a letter with warning for serious health consequences if i read it correct. Which says a lot by the way because before a federation sends such a letter imo there is a serious issue.
Anyway, the point is that this isnt uncovered by a journalist doing a nice undercover action, this is just in the news because the federation handled it in the open.
 
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
Yeah it works for Dumoulin that he actually looks tired (both in Giro and Tour), while Thomas looked liked he was barely breathing and just on a sunday stroll
It seemed to me that the best rider by far wasn't allowed to, or didn't choose to win in a (more) dominating fashion, even when it was obvious that it was all over for Froome.

Sky likely got another podium spot out of their negative racing, but Thomas may have looked more believable if he would have gone in the red "a bit" more. To me, anyway. I've never seen anything like this. All other Tour winners I remember seemingly went all out on at least some of the major climbs.
 
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18-Valve. (pithy) said:
Dekker_Tifosi said:
Yeah it works for Dumoulin that he actually looks tired (both in Giro and Tour), while Thomas looked liked he was barely breathing and just on a sunday stroll
It seemed to me that the best rider by far wasn't allowed to, or didn't choose to win in a (more) dominating fashion, even when it was obvious that it was all over for Froome.

Sky likely got another podium spot out of their negative racing, but Thomas may have looked more believable if he would have gone in the red "a bit" more. To me, anyway. I've never seen anything like this. All other Tour winners I remember seemingly went all out on at least some of the major climbs.
Thomas went all out on Rosière. Or you admit could have put into Dimoulin and Froome yet 30-40 extra seconds?
 
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chuuurles said:
dacooley said:
there's always a tendency of making up stretches when unwelcome rider succeeds. he's breathing through a nose, when others hold on for dear life, he looks fresh a daisy, he could easily have ridden one more stage and not got tired etc... damn the way a rider looks can be very misleading. this season i've never seen grimace of despair on Tom's face, but that's not like it means anything.
Really? He looked really tired to me on most mountain stages
As above, it means nothing....Take Qunitana for example; his face never changes wether he's soloing away to a stage win or getting dropped off the back of the group.

The only thing you can go on is performance, and even that is only ever relevant to everyone else in the race, ie if a rider is really tired, he will still look fresh compared to other riders who are really, really, really tired.
 
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brownbobby said:
chuuurles said:
dacooley said:
there's always a tendency of making up stretches when unwelcome rider succeeds. he's breathing through a nose, when others hold on for dear life, he looks fresh a daisy, he could easily have ridden one more stage and not got tired etc... damn the way a rider looks can be very misleading. this season i've never seen grimace of despair on Tom's face, but that's not like it means anything.
Really? He looked really tired to me on most mountain stages
As above, it means nothing....Take Qunitana for example; his face never changes wether he's soloing away to a stage win or getting dropped off the back of the group.

The only thing you can go on is performance, and even that is only ever relevant to everyone else in the race, ie if a rider is really tired, he will still look fresh compared to other riders who are really, really, really tired.
Also, the rider who wins the race literally IS fresher and stronger than anyone else. So you'd expect them to look like they are struggling less. And in cycling there is a very, very fine line between being relatively comfortable at threshold, and being in the red.
 
thomas winning the tour was quite a fortunate coincidence imo. post-giro dimoulin and froome riding in the dark, never knowing sensations each next mountain day can deliver, nibali crashing out, quintana performing level above than predicted, finally the rosiere stage where he extracted time from being sky free card. assuming that he was able to smash the field in portet and aubisque stages is way over imo. thomas eventually won, but he keeps to be considered a inferior to dimoulin GC rider. I wouldn't be surprised if he will remain of the weirdest gt winner with 1 victory and 0 top 10 placings.
 
Thomas actually has a longer progression to his WT palamares over 4 years than Contador before his first Tour win. Obviously Contador is likely to have been a career doper perhaps, so palamares is rather distorted too, but taking 4 years with his level of palamares, most in the sport would say it was coming, he just needed an opportunity to be GC leader doping or not.


2015 - Volta ao Algarve 1st, Tour de Suisse 2nd, Paris–Nice 5th
2016 - Paris–Nice 1st, Volta ao Algarve 1st
2017 - Tour of the Alps 1st, Tirreno–Adriatico 5th
2018 - Critérium du Dauphiné 1st, Volta ao Algarve 2nd, Tirreno–Adriatico 3rd
 
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samhocking said:
Thomas actually has a longer progression to his WT palamares over 4 years than Contador before his first Tour win. Obviously Contador is likely to have been a career doper perhaps, so palamares is rather distorted too, but taking 4 years with his level of palamares, most in the sport would say it was coming, he just needed an opportunity to be GC leader doping or not.


2015 - Volta ao Algarve 1st, Tour de Suisse 2nd, Paris–Nice 5th
2016 - Paris–Nice 1st, Volta ao Algarve 1st
2017 - Tour of the Alps 1st, Tirreno–Adriatico 5th
2018 - Critérium du Dauphiné 1st, Volta ao Algarve 2nd, Tirreno–Adriatico 3rd
Thomas is 32; Contador was 23.
 
Apr 20, 2012
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18-Valve. (pithy) said:
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think there was an article in the Flemish media last winter or early spring about how the Tour de France was actually Dumoulin's main target this season, rather than the Giro. A "rumor" which Sunweb denied, of course...

During the Tour, Dumoulin claimed to a TV reporter that he had lost weight after the Giro, to explain his superior climbing in the French race.

So he supposedly lost more than a few pounds, which I'm guessing is true, but did he use better dope in the latter race besides (additional) weight loss drugs to take his climbing to an unprecedented level?
If that were true I dont think Sunweb would have put Oomen in the Giro squad...


Keldermerckx was supposed to be leading the Sunweb's in the Tour I believe.

Nevertheless great recovery inbetween.
 
Jul 13, 2016
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I think he is speaking the truth he tried to do them both at 100%, which he thought was possible because of the extra week in between the two. Maybe if he had done just the Tour he would have been more explosive, but we can't know for sure.
 
Jul 28, 2009
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samhocking said:
Thomas actually has a longer progression to his WT palamares over 4 years than Contador before his first Tour win. Obviously Contador is likely to have been a career doper perhaps, so palamares is rather distorted too, but taking 4 years with his level of palamares, most in the sport would say it was coming, he just needed an opportunity to be GC leader doping or not.


2015 - Volta ao Algarve 1st, Tour de Suisse 2nd, Paris–Nice 5th
2016 - Paris–Nice 1st, Volta ao Algarve 1st
2017 - Tour of the Alps 1st, Tirreno–Adriatico 5th
2018 - Critérium du Dauphiné 1st, Volta ao Algarve 2nd, Tirreno–Adriatico 3rd
If these were the results from a 19 to 23 year old (from 2015 to 2018) all in the sport would consider this a very talented rider. However without any meaningfull result over a 3 week period GT nor any meaningfull mountain stage result during a GT in that period i would expect that nobody would call this kid a favourite for the 2018 TDF. A good pick for the white jersey, and a finish in the top 10 GC at best.

And this doesnt take into account that there is actually very little progression in those 4 years. He was 2nd in the Tour de Suisse in 2015 allready. Winning the Dauphine or 3rd in Tirrenno in 18 sn't much different.

Nor does it take into account that we are talking about a 32 year old cyclist.

So yeah. My take is no matter how you slice it this win comes out of nowwhere and no reasonable 'legal' explanation can be given for this performance gain. It certainly isnt a minimal gain in results.
 
where does narrative about quite a late gc-transformation not being credible / believable come from? one falls under high-scale doping programme at 23, other - at 26, third - at 29-30, as possibly thomas did. why does an earlier starter get more credibility? It's a bit weird piece of discrimination
 
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dacooley said:
where does narrative about quite a late gc-transformation not being credible / believable come from? one falls under high-scale doping programme at 23, other - at 26, third - at 29-30, as possibly thomas did. why does an earlier starter get more credibility? It's a bit weird piece of discrimination
Isn't it obvious why they get more credibility? Basically there is the possibility that they could be clean. Its unlikely in modern cycling, but there is the possibility that some amazing natural talent who has been exceptional from the start - Quintana, Bernal, Pinot - could be competing clean - or at least as clean as it gets in the WT. That simply can not be the case in a rider who has made a huge jump in the middle of their career, having been riding WT for several seasons. A rider with incredible natural talent would always show it from a young age.

Then there is also the case that riders who perfomed young are less likely to be as reliant on doping for their results. I doubt teams give their best doping programmes to 18-19 year olds who are not going to be bringing in significant results for at least another 2-3 years, however good they are.

Imo, Tour de l'Avenir is the best guide we have to which future GT riders are naturally talented and which are completely reliant on doping. Dumoulin did absolutely nothing there.
 
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DFA123 said:
dacooley said:
where does narrative about quite a late gc-transformation not being credible / believable come from? one falls under high-scale doping programme at 23, other - at 26, third - at 29-30, as possibly thomas did. why does an earlier starter get more credibility? It's a bit weird piece of discrimination
Isn't it obvious why they get more credibility? Basically there is the possibility that they could be clean. Its unlikely in modern cycling, but there is the possibility that some amazing natural talent who has been exceptional from the start - Quintana, Bernal, Pinot - could be competing clean - or at least as clean as it gets in the WT. That simply can not be the case in a rider who has made a huge jump in the middle of their career, having been riding WT for several seasons. A rider with incredible natural talent would always show it from a young age.

Then there is also the case that riders who perfomed young are less likely to be as reliant on doping for their results. I doubt teams give their best doping programmes to 18-19 year olds who are not going to be bringing in significant results for at least another 2-3 years, however good they are.

Imo, Tour de l'Avenir is the best guide we have to which future GT riders are naturally talented and which are completely reliant on doping. Dumoulin did absolutely nothing there.
not at all for me. surely it has some correlation and by and large and this is as correct as stating something like - "the more one eats - the more often one goes to bathroom". so a link is quite obvious, but there are too many factors in the game to draw a big conclusion.
ok, let's assume the theory works perfectly fine. pinot is never going to win the tour. the prospect of quintana taking it is in a huge doubt. bernal has a bright future ahead of him, but the likelihood of him winning is supposably 40-50% according to quite an optimistic assessment. let's say, he'll never win the tour either while dimoulin will stomp his authority with 3-4 tour victories. what would it mean in terms of doping?
 
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dacooley said:
DFA123 said:
dacooley said:
where does narrative about quite a late gc-transformation not being credible / believable come from? one falls under high-scale doping programme at 23, other - at 26, third - at 29-30, as possibly thomas did. why does an earlier starter get more credibility? It's a bit weird piece of discrimination
Isn't it obvious why they get more credibility? Basically there is the possibility that they could be clean. Its unlikely in modern cycling, but there is the possibility that some amazing natural talent who has been exceptional from the start - Quintana, Bernal, Pinot - could be competing clean - or at least as clean as it gets in the WT. That simply can not be the case in a rider who has made a huge jump in the middle of their career, having been riding WT for several seasons. A rider with incredible natural talent would always show it from a young age.

Then there is also the case that riders who perfomed young are less likely to be as reliant on doping for their results. I doubt teams give their best doping programmes to 18-19 year olds who are not going to be bringing in significant results for at least another 2-3 years, however good they are.

Imo, Tour de l'Avenir is the best guide we have to which future GT riders are naturally talented and which are completely reliant on doping. Dumoulin did absolutely nothing there.
not at all for me. surely it has some correlation and by and large and this is as correct as stating something like - "the more one eats - the more often one goes to bathroom". so a link is quite obvious, but there are too many factors in the game to draw a big conclusion.
ok, let's assume the theory works perfectly fine. pinot is never going to win the tour. the prospect of quintana taking it is in a huge doubt. bernal has a bright future ahead of him, but the likelihood of him winning is supposably 40-50% according to quite an optimistic assessment. let's say, he'll never win the tour either while dimoulin will stomp his authority with 3-4 tour victories. what would it mean in terms of doping?
Well it would mean that Dumoulin is certainly doping, whereas Quintana and Pinot may or may not be. Quintana and Pinot's career progression is pretty much the same as what a very talented clean rider's would be - which obviously doesn't mean they are clean, but leaves the possibility open.

Dumoulin's career progression - particularly if he goes on to win 3-4 tours - is pretty much consistent with what we have seen from doped winners in the past.
 
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samhocking said:
Thomas actually has a longer progression to his WT palamares over 4 years than Contador before his first Tour win. Obviously Contador is likely to have been a career doper perhaps, so palamares is rather distorted too, but taking 4 years with his level of palamares, most in the sport would say it was coming, he just needed an opportunity to be GC leader doping or not.


2015 - Volta ao Algarve 1st, Tour de Suisse 2nd, Paris–Nice 5th
2016 - Paris–Nice 1st, Volta ao Algarve 1st
2017 - Tour of the Alps 1st, Tirreno–Adriatico 5th
2018 - Critérium du Dauphiné 1st, Volta ao Algarve 2nd, Tirreno–Adriatico 3rd
This is the Dumoulin thread. Not Contador.
 
Yeah the Tour l'Avenir is very reliable. Which is why Lars Bak has won so many TDF titles. Or what about Romain Sicard? Or what about Bauke Mollema. Moises Duenas perhaps?
Or what about 2nd placed David Boily in 2011?
Jan Bakelants perhaps? Winner in 2008

No. The Tour l'Avenir is NOT the great indicator for GT talent. It's an indicator of U23 talent in general, but says little over their later GT careers
 
I think two separate issues are being conflated. I generally agree with DFA123 that the Tour l'Avenir shows who is naturally talented and has the potential for future GT success. Why that potential is so often unfulfilled is a separate issue and is inextricably tied to doping IMO.

Of course, there are late bloomers in all walks of life, and Dumoulin might fall into that category.
 
it's not reliable, rather indicative, but the extent of this "indicativeness" tends to be overrated imo. lots of non-doping related things can happen to a young talented pro in between tour de l'avenir and tour de france or any other gt: he can easily crack under load of expectations, not survive in tougher competition, get pushed aside by those, who didn't hold such immense promise, but eventually turned out more persistent and hardworking, down requirements to himself and go into complete meltdown like betancur, not adopt to what a world tour team wants from him, refuse using high-scale doping program, etc, etc. which is why elite bike racing is so different to under-23 racing,

unfortunately, lance's and froome's stories brought fans to the point where many of us started believing that multiple grand tour winner can be fairly easily created in labaratory from pretty much any cycling material. and it's quite sad.
 
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
Yeah the Tour l'Avenir is very reliable. Which is why Lars Bak has won so many TDF titles. Or what about Romain Sicard? Or what about Bauke Mollema. Moises Duenas perhaps?
Or what about 2nd placed David Boily in 2011?
Jan Bakelants perhaps? Winner in 2008

No. The Tour l'Avenir is NOT the great indicator for GT talent. It's an indicator of U23 talent in general, but says little over their later GT careers
You've missed the point again. It's not that Tour de l'Avenir predicts who will win GTs. Rather that it shows, imo, who are the most naturally talented GT riders. Because its probably the most high profile race that occurs at a time in the career when riders are more likely to be clean or at least not on a full scale professional doping programme.

Of course there will be exceptions. But, a very naturally talented and clean GT rider should shine and place well at Tour de l'Avenir. A relative donkey, who starts big time doping only after a few years as a mediocre WT pro, will obviously not do well.
 
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DFA123 said:
Dekker_Tifosi said:
Yeah the Tour l'Avenir is very reliable. Which is why Lars Bak has won so many TDF titles. Or what about Romain Sicard? Or what about Bauke Mollema. Moises Duenas perhaps?
Or what about 2nd placed David Boily in 2011?
Jan Bakelants perhaps? Winner in 2008

No. The Tour l'Avenir is NOT the great indicator for GT talent. It's an indicator of U23 talent in general, but says little over their later GT careers
You've missed the point again. It's not that Tour de l'Avenir predicts who will win GTs. Rather that it shows, imo, who are the most naturally talented GT riders. Because its probably the most high profile race that occurs at a time in the career when riders are more likely to be clean or at least not on a full scale professional doping programme.

Of course there will be exceptions. But, a very naturally talented and clean GT rider should shine and place well at Tour de l'Avenir. A relative donkey, who starts big time doping only after a few years as a mediocre WT pro, will obviously not do well.
the whole tour l'avenir thing is noticeably leaked imo, since it completely misses probability of becoming a great climber / developing into a great climber as career progresses.
 
Re: Re:

dacooley said:
DFA123 said:
Dekker_Tifosi said:
Yeah the Tour l'Avenir is very reliable. Which is why Lars Bak has won so many TDF titles. Or what about Romain Sicard? Or what about Bauke Mollema. Moises Duenas perhaps?
Or what about 2nd placed David Boily in 2011?
Jan Bakelants perhaps? Winner in 2008

No. The Tour l'Avenir is NOT the great indicator for GT talent. It's an indicator of U23 talent in general, but says little over their later GT careers
You've missed the point again. It's not that Tour de l'Avenir predicts who will win GTs. Rather that it shows, imo, who are the most naturally talented GT riders. Because its probably the most high profile race that occurs at a time in the career when riders are more likely to be clean or at least not on a full scale professional doping programme.

Of course there will be exceptions. But, a very naturally talented and clean GT rider should shine and place well at Tour de l'Avenir. A relative donkey, who starts big time doping only after a few years as a mediocre WT pro, will obviously not do well.
the whole tour l'avenir thing is noticeably leaked imo, since it completely misses probability of becoming a great climber / developing into a great climber as career progresses.
I'm not sure I understand what you mean by this phrase ("leaked")?
 

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