Not so much misses it, as thinks its not possible without doping. A poor climber aged 20-21, is not going to become a good climber naturally, all of a sudden at the age of 25 or 28. By age 20, an extreme natural talent - capable of challenging for GT's clean, is already going to be showing their cards. Bernal for example.dacooley said:the whole tour l'avenir thing is noticeably leaked imo, since it completely misses probability of becoming a great climber / developing into a great climber as career progresses.DFA123 said:You've missed the point again. It's not that Tour de l'Avenir predicts who will win GTs. Rather that it shows, imo, who are the most naturally talented GT riders. Because its probably the most high profile race that occurs at a time in the career when riders are more likely to be clean or at least not on a full scale professional doping programme.Dekker_Tifosi said:Yeah the Tour l'Avenir is very reliable. Which is why Lars Bak has won so many TDF titles. Or what about Romain Sicard? Or what about Bauke Mollema. Moises Duenas perhaps?
Or what about 2nd placed David Boily in 2011?
Jan Bakelants perhaps? Winner in 2008
No. The Tour l'Avenir is NOT the great indicator for GT talent. It's an indicator of U23 talent in general, but says little over their later GT careers
Of course there will be exceptions. But, a very naturally talented and clean GT rider should shine and place well at Tour de l'Avenir. A relative donkey, who starts big time doping only after a few years as a mediocre WT pro, will obviously not do well.