Evans, to dispel a few myths

[Maglia Nero]

Evans was right to go...he just should have done it two seasons ago.... there was no way that a Belgian team (especially under Marc Sergeant) would build a team for a Grand Tour at the cost of weakening their chances in the classics... same with Quickstep.
I agree that Evan's personality may not be the most conducive to building a teams loyalty, but he has gone throught the wringer as well... TMobile never gave him a shot, and Lotto kept promising the world and never delivered - or didn't know how.
Evan's big win was with a team that he could trust to support him, even when he wasn't the only protected rider... goes to show what a beter team environment can do to a man's form!

 

[Angliru]

No reason Cadel can not win the tour next year. Old Phonak can fix him up.
Just has to quit whinning and turn up the heat Cadel. Go and punish the competition in the hard classics. Tricks and treachery on top of pure determination cannot lose.

When you get to Cadels level its all in the head team or no team.
The rare talent he has in the mountains among the giddy rarrified competition that Cadel has shown, the dedication now he only needs the focus and the confidence in himself to do it.

He must gain the peletons respect and then intimidate with his power.

ROFLMAO!!! Oh, were you being serious?

 

[bianchigirl]

At the beginning of this thread, it's pointed out that Evans doesn't have the power to make an attack stick in a race like the Tour. Since he TTs well enough but not outstandingly and can't hope to make time in the mountains, please explain to me quite what Lotto could have done to make him a TdF winner (short of the obvious)?

 

[Ferminal]

At the beginning of this thread, it's pointed out that Evans doesn't have the power to make an attack stick in a race like the Tour. Since he TTs well enough but not outstandingly and can't hope to make time in the mountains, please explain to me quite what Lotto could have done to make him a TdF winner (short of the obvious)?

Nothing, whether he is on Lotto with no one, or Radioshack with Kloden/Levi/LA as superdoms, he wouldn't win.

A good/bad GT team is not the difference between Contador and Evans (assuming there is no TTT). IF Evans had a very strong team in 07/08 then maybe the <60s margins could have been turned around (such as being able to help him limit losses to Chicken/AC and nullify CSC triple attacks), but Contador is that much better these days that you can't drop him, and in most situations he's superior against the clock.

 

[bianchigirl]

Somebody has to come second (or third now that Schleck has come into his own). Evans simply doesn't have that little extra something to make him a real contender.

 

[Bala Verde]

In Spain he didn't even beat Valverde, in de TdF he didn't beat Contador, nor Sastre, while he never focused on winning the Giro.

I would rate Evans overall stronger than Menchov, who has won 3 GTs. Perhaps a comparison makes sense?

- Menchov never started with strong teams in the Giro nor the Vuelta
- Menchov isn't really one with his bike, so the supposed 'bad luck' that accompanies Evans should be annulled by Menchov's love affair with the tarmac.
- In terms of mental fragility, Menchov probably has weekly walk-ins at Freud's practice in Vienna.
- In terms of leadership, I am inclined to believe that Menchov cannot even make his computer execute a command.

So why doesn't Evans have more than 3 GTs to his name?

 

[blackcat]

In Spain he didn't even beat Valverde, in de TdF he didn't beat Contador, nor Sastre, while he never focused on winning the Giro.

I would rate Evans overall stronger than Menchov, who has won 3 GTs. Perhaps a comparison makes sense?

- Menchov never started with strong teams in the Giro nor the Vuelta
- Menchov isn't really one with his bike, so the supposed 'bad luck' that accompanies Evans should be annulled by Menchov's love affair with the tarmac.
- In terms of mental fragility, Menchov probably has weekly walk-ins at Freud's practice in Vienna.
- In terms of leadership, I am inclined to believe that Menchov cannot even make his computer execute a command.

So why doesn't Evans have more than 3 GTs to his name?

- In terms of medical program, Menchov probably has weekly walk-ins at Humanplasma in Vienna.

fixed.

 

[goggalor]

At the beginning of this thread, it's pointed out that Evans doesn't have the power to make an attack stick in a race like the Tour. Since he TTs well enough but not outstandingly and can't hope to make time in the mountains, please explain to me quite what Lotto could have done to make him a TdF winner (short of the obvious)?

He is outstanding in the ITT. Or at least he was in 2007, when he won the first long ITT at the the Tour (after Vino's DSQ).

The only reason forumites can with confidence make statements like bianchigirl's "Evans simply doesn't have that little extra something to make him a real contender", is because Contador is such a phenomenon. Hell, even early noughties Lance Armstrong would arguably not have been a "real contender" if Contador was racing.

 

[ak-zaaf]

- In terms of medical program, Menchov probably has weekly walk-ins at Humanplasma in Vienna.

fixed.

It's also important that other riders in the peloton don't think Menchov is a childish whining a-hole.
That can make a lot of difference in a 3 week tour.

 

[Bala Verde]

- In terms of medical program, Menchov probably has weekly walk-ins at Humanplasma in Vienna.

fixed.

I didn't ask "Why does Menchov have 3 GT wins?", I asked "why doesn't Evans have them?"

 

[goggalor]

It's also important that other riders in the peloton don't think Menchov is a childish whining a-hole.
That can make a lot of difference in a 3 week tour.

You're not acknowledging that everyone's out to get Cadel, are you?

 

[blackcat]

It's also important that other riders in the peloton don't think Menchov is a childish whining a-hole.
That can make a lot of difference in a 3 week tour.

He is not strong enough. Simple. He is consistent, but not strong enough. And yes, he is a whiner, definitely.

 

[blackcat]

I didn't ask "Why does Menchov have 3 GT wins?", I asked "why doesn't Evans have them?"

and what is your premise? Or are you insinuating nothing. Personally, I feel Evans had a glittering career potentially disappear because of his inability to strategically plan, and for his social skill (lack of). He may have saved his legacy with a World Championship.

I cannot believe no one in Cycling Australia did not get a grip of him and kick him into gear. Rominger has three or four talents, plus Contador, he was never gonna massage Evans when he had the most talented riders on his books as is. He does not care who wins, it is always one of his (or de Geyter's)

 

[Angliru]

So why doesn't Evans have more than 3 GTs to his name?

Could it be his singular focus (The Tour)? When interviewed regarding his goals during the course of his season, everything is a build up/prep for the Tour. When the "misunderstanding" surfaced last year between Evans and S/L
management about his participation in the Giro, one would think that at minimum the idea of his participation in the Giro was discussed between them,
but Evans made it quite clear that he would not be at the start of the Giro.

Any quotes regarding his efforts in the Ardennes classics is similarly met with statements like "I did well considering this is not my focus" which to me is a slight to riders like Kirchen who beat him in Fleche Wallone in 2008 and anyone else who finished ahead of him in L-B-L. Are these events so easy for him that he needn't prepare specifically for them?

Its obvious that his singular focus in the Tour eliminates any chance of his actually racing the Giro to win. Could his lack of participation in the Giro be a result of having to revisit that fateful year where he almost won it, only to plunge in the classification after an extremely bad day in the mountains which left him completely out of contention and even worse, out of the top 10 in the gc? Lots of factors come into play. Also the argument that he showed by his strong Vuelta that he could contend at both doesn't hold any water since he gave up at the Tour shortly after the TTT and supposedly got sick, depending on what source of info you choose to believe.

Menchov just seems less obsessed with the Tour and much more willing to take a chance, go against the current norm, and, as the Aussies say, give it a go at the Giro. Plus he found that for him, at least in 2008, the Giro was ideal prep for the Tour. 2009's Giro was much more draining on him, possibly because of it being the 100th anniversary addition and the level of competition seemed a bit tougher, especially with his battle with Diluca for the overall. Its possible too that he looked at the Astana lineup at the beginning of the season, took a gander at the Tour route with its TTT and figured he had nothing to lose by going all out at the Giro. IMO it proved to be a wise decision regardless of how his Tour ultimately turned out.

 

[Escarabajo]

Nice posts Blackcat. Thanks for the info.

Cadel style of riding reminds me of Greg Lemond. Not too explosive but usually consistent. It would be interesting to see who BMC hires to help Cadel on his objectives (If they get invited to the big races).

 

[Bag_O_Wallet]

Menchov just seems less obsessed with the Tour and much more willing to take a chance, go against the current norm, and, as the Aussies say, give it a go at the Giro. Plus he found that for him, at least in 2008, the Giro was ideal prep for the Tour. 2009's Giro was much more draining on him, possibly because of it being the 100th anniversary addition and the level of competition seemed a bit tougher, especially with his battle with Diluca for the overall. Its possible too that he looked at the Astana lineup at the beginning of the season, took a gander at the Tour route with its TTT and figured he had nothing to lose by going all out at the Giro. IMO it proved to be a wise decision regardless of how his Tour ultimately turned out.

I very much agree. I think Menchov (or whoever it is guiding his career) does a great job of assessing where he has the best shot at winning, and he rides accordingly.

 

[ak-zaaf]

I very much agree. I think Menchov (or whoever it is guiding his career) does a great job of assessing where he has the best shot at winning, and he rides accordingly.

Not true.
The first '2' wins in the Vuelta we're after he failed in France and had to save his season in Spain at the last moment. Then they thought: "Hey, he's better in his second GT of the season."
So this year he did the Giro to be in top shape at the Tour, but when he noticed Di Luca was the only GC threat he went all-out. Again, not planned for. The plan was to be good at the Tour.

 

[Bala Verde]

and what is your premise? Or are you insinuating nothing. Personally, I feel Evans had a glittering career potentially disappear because of his inability to strategically plan, and for his social skill (lack of). He may have saved his legacy with a World Championship.

The premise is, that if you want to be successful, you need to be self reflective and 'smart'. I don't know if that's what you mean with 'strategic planning'.

As I said, Menchov (31) has won 3 GTs, while Evans, who I always thought to have more potential, has 'nothing' but a WC at 32. If Menchov's career is over now, he can be said to have maximized his potential. If Evan's career were to end now, he could be said to have severely underperformed, given his abilities.

I refer to Menchov because I think there are quite some similarities/are in a similar position with reference to the #1s. Team support/mental state/combined climbing and TT ability/leadership skills/'bad luck'; inability to stay on the bike/'hostile' take over by a team mate VDB-Rasmussen.

Evans seems to blame everyone around him, when he doesn't get what he feels he deserves. Publicly he has referred to SIL's desire to bring VDB next TdF - which he feels like a lack of support - as a reason to sign with BMC. Menchov on the other hand seems to realize that he has his limitations, and therefore tries to make the best of it, by aiming for (or nabbing) the victories when they present themselves.

If Evans were to do the same, focus on what he can win instead of (stubbornly) sticking with what he dreams to win, I think he could still retire with a fine record. His WC victory was perhaps a good example...

 

[blackcat]

strategic planning is all encompassing. It definitely includes "smarts" and "self-awareness".

But specifically, it includes planning your career, and objectives. Alot of riders took less and a reduced contract around 2002/3 and went to CSC. At the time of CSC-Tiscali, and renewing sponsors, there was not alot of money.

Riis always knew to cherry pick the weak spots on the calendar. And when to bring his riders to form, to take those results. Ofcourse, in the last decade an a half marrying your form to your race schedule has become simpler, to the point "form" is but a euphemism for "medical program".

Evans just did not have the skill to restructure Lotto to his own feifdom. He was an utter failure at Telekom. Even if one suggests injuries, and cultural barriers, and other hurdles, he could not force his way on to the Ardennes squad in 2003. Which is his natural home. They left him out of the squads. And he just complained, without learning a lesson about internal team politics, and to get the best possible program, and team constitution for him. He never had 8 teammates fully committed. And this is, like you say, a critical self-awareness. And no one took him by the throat and made him see the error of his ways. (a friend/mentor or Cycling Australia figurehead)

 

[Bag_O_Wallet]

Not true.
The first '2' wins in the Vuelta we're after he failed in France and had to save his season in Spain at the last moment. Then they thought: "Hey, he's better in his second GT of the season."
So this year he did the Giro to be in top shape at the Tour, but when he noticed Di Luca was the only GC threat he went all-out. Again, not planned for. The plan was to be good at the Tour.

In '05 and '09, I'd say he had to know he didn't have a shot at the Tour. His best shot at the Tour was in '08, but he didn't seem to know how much to commit to the Giro.

 

[Francois the Postman]

And it's not that I think people's fundamental dislike of Cadel is invalid. Just that an objective weigh up of performance and appearance factors doesn't seem to explain the strength of the dislike. Like what is it about him that produces such a response? I won't accept whining......cause there are far greater whiners who aren't known as such. I won't accept "not attacking" cause that is inaccurate and demonstrates a misunderstanding of racing. I won't accept "no personality", cause basso is as dull as dishwater and an introvert but seems quite well liked as a personality. So what is it?

Maybe I'm not the right person to ask, as I don't really dislike or hate the guy. I just really really don't like him either. To me he is a well capable rider who mostly seems to be "there" rather than "in it". One of those names that shows up frequently on the screen, but I never feel that him not being there would make one bit of difference to the race I am watching.

It's not a good sign when the "Van Hummel story" in this year's Tour got me more gripped than "the Evans one" ever did. And Van Hummel wasn't even aiming to set the TdF centre stage in his year. None of Cadel's TdF rides that I have seen compelled respect in me, something that Kenny, far less gifted than Cadel, managed easily by really showing all the teeth that he had. And Kenny made less excuses to boot.

My only hope is that we will see a new Cadel on the road next year, and he will ride as someone who *is* going to prove something and show 'em, rather than as someone who *would like to and tries his best*. I want to see riders that I know are riding well beyond their own limit expectations, and still surprising. Me, and most importantly, themselves.

Cadel always seemed to clock in within expectations, ride as expected, performed as expected. And often proved to be inconsequential as expected. I don't need my rider to speak English. As a consequence, I just don't fee "da love".

I have seen lesser men do more to get me gripped. And whose post-race demeanour, and their fan's appreciation and expectations, seemed to be far more in line with actual road performances. If it is a race with Cadel or Hoogerland, based on past experiences in front of a TV screen, give me a Hoogerland any day of the year. When my preferred is to drop a GT contender, the GT contender must have frittered away a lot of good opportunities to get my juices flowing, and earn my respect.

And you don't even need to win to do that. It is how you come in second, or last. I need more than someone who just ticks the expectations boxes. I want to see the ride or race of a life, at least once. And the WC was still not that ride, to me at least. He is a Tour man? Show me!

 

[Francois the Postman]

Not true.
The first '2' wins in the Vuelta we're after he failed in France and had to save his season in Spain at the last moment. Then they thought: "Hey, he's better in his second GT of the season."
So this year he did the Giro to be in top shape at the Tour, but when he noticed Di Luca was the only GC threat he went all-out. Again, not planned for. The plan was to be good at the Tour.

Agreed. But Menchov does seem to have the capacity "to go for it" when the situation arises unplanned. And when it does, he also seems to have a team that is willing to ride their hearts out for him all the way, even if their "all the way" is not as far up the road as ideal. Menchov doesn't go around blaming his team for falling short of "ideal" or is vocal about it being "under strength". He seems to appreciate "their best" and possibly gets more out of them as a result.

Maybe Menchov's attitude not to stare himself blind on one goal also puts him in situations more often where unexpected opportunities arise, and he has an additional chance to "go for it".

Menchov is a pragmatic realist, and has GT wins under his belt at age 31, but not the big one. I am sure that like Cadel they both could dream that big, it was unlikely, but certainly not impossible. But if Evans doesn't get the big one next year, I am convinced that he missed out on a lot by staring himself blind. Things that Menchov has tasted and enjoyed.

 

[Galic Ho]

He is outstanding in the ITT. Or at least he was in 2007, when he won the first long ITT at the the Tour (after Vino's DSQ).

The only reason forumites can with confidence make statements like bianchigirl's "Evans simply doesn't have that little extra something to make him a real contender", is because Contador is such a phenomenon. Hell, even early noughties Lance Armstrong would arguably not have been a "real contender" if Contador was racing.

You forgot Andy Schleck. Evans is outstanding in ITT over 40km's. Over 40km's Contador is vulnerable. If GT organisers put in long ITTs around 60km, Contador would not be as dominant. That could open the door to challengers. BIG IF. Evans is not as strong in the ITT as 2007, or I suspect, he is, however the opposition have grown in strength. That isn't Evans fault. Blame inevitability.

I didn't ask "Why does Menchov have 3 GT wins?", I asked "why doesn't Evans have them?"

I like your thinking. Ak-Zaaf answered part of the question. Menchov is wise and aims for what he can win. Cadel focuses on le Tour where he can podium, but not win. Winning requires more than his skill on the bike. Ingredients such as luck and precise tactics to unfold. The smallest deviance and we get results like 2007 and 2008. One or two minor things that stopped him.

Could it be his singular focus (The Tour)? When interviewed regarding his goals during the course of his season, everything is a build up/prep for the Tour. When the "misunderstanding" surfaced last year between Evans and S/L
management about his participation in the Giro, one would think that at minimum the idea of his participation in the Giro was discussed between them,
but Evans made it quite clear that he would not be at the start of the Giro.

We've all heard how Silence did not support or believe in Cuddles. The fact they were spruiking and wanting him to ride the Giro says otherwise. Many have said he could win it. So why did he not ride, but instead whinge and blame his team for the perceived lack of support?

Its obvious that his singular focus in the Tour eliminates any chance of his actually racing the Giro to win. Could his lack of participation in the Giro be a result of having to revisit that fateful year where he almost won it, only to plunge in the classification after an extremely bad day in the mountains which left him completely out of contention and even worse, out of the top 10 in the gc? Lots of factors come into play. Also the argument that he showed by his strong Vuelta that he could contend at both doesn't hold any water since he gave up at the Tour shortly after the TTT and supposedly got sick, depending on what source of info you choose to believe.

Still not proven he was sick. Possibility, but also equally possible he mentally bonked and gave up. His focus is the reason he has his current palmares. He isn't a realist. He wants the fairytale Tour win for any number of reasons (feel free topost your hypothesis here). Personally I think he isn't too bright and blame a portion of his focus on ego. Whatever, maybe the new team will consign him to riding the Giro and actually having a go. We'll know for sure during the second week if he races whether he is serious.

The premise is, that if you want to be successful, you need to be self reflective and 'smart'. I don't know if that's what you mean with 'strategic planning'.

Evans seems to blame everyone around him, when he doesn't get what he feels he deserves. Publicly he has referred to SIL's desire to bring VDB next TdF - which he feels like a lack of support - as a reason to sign with BMC. Menchov on the other hand seems to realize that he has his limitations, and therefore tries to make the best of it, by aiming for (or nabbing) the victories when they present themselves.

If Evans were to do the same, focus on what he can win instead of (stubbornly) sticking with what he dreams to win, I think he could still retire with a fine record. His WC victory was perhaps a good example...

Spot on. Strategic planning is medium term to long term planning. Tactics are for seasons and specific races. Moving to BMC is strategic and may turn out to be a good move in 2011. If Cadel wins the Giro or Vuelta in the future I will not put it down to a new team. It will be the result of a change in tactical and strategic planning, ie: not going for the TOUR win.

When Cadels image of himself is challenged in any shape or form, he whinges. It is annoying. He has a problem asserting himself and his grasp of using the media to aid public image is woeful.

Bianchigirl said it nicely. When has Evans ever shown he has that extra factor needed to win le Tour? He hasn't, he relies on too many variables. That just isn't good enough post 2008.

 

[mherm79]

When Cadels image of himself is challenged in any shape or form, he whinges. It is annoying. He has a problem asserting himself and his grasp of using the media to aid public image is woeful.

Bianchigirl said it nicely. When has Evans ever shown he has that extra factor needed to win le Tour? He hasn't, he relies on too many variables. That just isn't good enough post 2008.

got to agree. when interviewed Cadel always seems to be coming up with an excuse "i got sick, i had a flat, lost to much time in the TTT etc etc." He would do himself a service by just saying "i wasn't good enough."

The TdF is meant to be a race of many variables, hence the prestige of winning it. It's also why you need to have that one Ace card that you can play to gap other GC contenders i.e. explosive climbing or time trialing.
And of course you need a good team to place you in a position that let's you best play your hand.

I think Cadel's mountain bike success, which i assume was more attainable on individual effort, may have corrupted his road career, which relies more on team support.

 

[Anonymous]

got to agree. when interviewed Cadel always seems to be coming up with an excuse "i got sick, i had a flat, lost to much time in the TTT etc etc." He would do himself a service by just saying "i wasn't good enough."

fyi - after the 2008 tour final TT when he couldn't beat sastre, he said he wasn't good enough on the day. when an interviewer asks why he is not good enough on that day he explains the crash and how it sapped him of the power required to be up there in that TT (off the top of my head, he was 1minute down on VDV in that TT, and he stated, that normally in any given TT he is between Canc and VDV)

People seem to have selective hearing when it comes to cadel. He often says that he didn't have the legs for a given bike race, but inevitably the interviewer will always continue on from that and say, why did you not have the legs, and his answer to that question is all that the cadel-bashers seem to remember. mark my words, i listen to ALL of cadel's interviews, and he is not the whinger that people make him out to be.

He is an analyst of his own performances (along with his respectable coach Aldo Sassi) and they breakdown his performances into minor things. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that multiple minor set backs can have drastic results on a GC shot. As such, he loses 3 GTs in 3 years, all by less than 2min, with two tour losses by under a minute - that is almost unheard of, that a rider can lose two consecutive tours both in under a minute.

As for 2009, you say he is whinging and making excuses. And i'll tell you again, if you watched the vuelta, you would have seen he was good enough. Losing 1:20 from a flat, and 10sec for a bottle, and ultimately losing the vuelta by 1:30 suggests to me that his excuses have some actual fact involved, and you are ignoring this. The 'excuses' are reasons for why he believes he lost the vuelta, and i know you know that he could have won that vuelta if the bike change scenario never occurred.

As for the tour, do you really think a diesel engine like Cadels is going to makeup the 3 minutes lost in a TDF TTT? NO... becoz he relies on being up the front from day one. After the verbier stage, he was significantly ahead of LA and AS on GC IF YOU SUBTRACT THE TTT TIMES. So after 15 stages, he was probably the 3rd best rider, IMO. So of course the TTT is an valid excuse, because they lost 3 minutes!!!

As for the sickness, we will never know about this one. Maybe he did suffer mentally, maybe he was stressed by the media pounding him when up to that point he had done everything right in that tour, but we will never know if that is an excuse or a genuine reason for dropping so bad. Not to mention the weather in the stages before the verbier stage. He said after one of those stages he wasn't feeling great, possibly indicating sickness, but i'm sure ignore this too. I suggest, the fact that he was being dropped by the grupetto on stage 17, that it was more physical than mental, but of course a GT rider is not going to admit this on the day, which is why his story changed later.

At the end of the day, if a rider says "I wasn't good enough" or "I am not good enough" his career is over. Why would he give up on his dreams? He wants to win the tour, if that means missing out on winning a GT in his career, then such is life, at least the guy did everything in his power to put the best possible performance in the biggest stage race in the world. gee I have to say, I respect anyone who says they can win. If they lose, so what, they still tried. Jens Voight always said, that if you roll up to the start line, and you think you will lose, race over, you've already lost. There is always a small probabillity that you can win, and it's more respectable to say, I can win, i'm good enough, and then lose, as oppose to rolling up to the start line with a negative attitude...