Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[Squire]

If we believe clickbait we can believe a helluva lot of things.

So with that you are trying to say that the power analysis they are doing is completely wrong?

 

[Netserk]

Personally, I have greater epistemic trust in the works of @ammattipyoraily.

 

[CyclistAbi]

So with that you are trying to say that the power analysis they are doing is completely wrong?

If i read their top 10 climbers prediction for the 2023 season. Then what i can say is it's not all based on some hard data. It says things like Roglič is old and crashes a lot. Hence to me this is more of a heuristic approach. To try to back some narrative. Then pure power analysis.

But best to wait and see as 2023 season is here. And we will start getting some hard data in a day or two.

 

[acm]

What we all need to understand is there are no real expectation involved in regards to Rogla and TA.

Yeah, good luck saying that to Roglic. If he's going to a race, he's going there to win it and not just for training.

 

[Squire]

If i read their top 10 climbers prediction for the 2023 season. Then what i can say is it's not all based on some hard data. It says things like Roglič is old and crashes a lot. Hence to me this is more of a heuristic approach. To try to back some narrative. Then pure power analysis.

But best to wait and see as 2023 season is here. And we will start getting some hard data in a day or two.

That's not what I'm referring to at all. They have regular updates on climbing performances through the season. But I'm no expert in that field, so I can't judge the accuracy.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@acm

Busted.

@Squire

In my opinion the real problem is lack of data. For the 2022 season. Rogla didn't really get a chance to produce much of valuable data. So the whole power data analysis for his 2022 season is rather moot.

 

[Red Rick]

That's not what I'm referring to at all. They have regular updates on climbing performances through the season. But I'm no expert in that field, so I can't judge the accuracy.

I think W/kg estimates aren't as important as I used to think because it ignores tactics, and overall hardness of the stage so much.

But for LR specifically, my issue is largely that

1. They're completely inconsistent with accounting for drafting. It can be ignored or be massively corrected for
2. They ignore rider weight effect on W/kg
3. They don't bother with CdA
4. Wind is like drafting, can be ignored or corrected for, depending on the clicks they want.
5. In the rider graphs they make they include a lot of dumb data points to include.
6. They completely ignore altitude. Hence nearly all of the 'thermonuclear' performances are unipuerto stages of climbs that start at close to sea level

They say they explain the calculation, but that explanation then amounts basically to 'etalon bruh'. Their estimates basically vary from about equal with ammatipyoraily to like 0.4W/kg higher sometimes. They also often refer to some of the best performances which then proceed to have quite little bearing on subsequent GT performances.

For Roglic specifically, there's simply not much data to support the statement. He was good in Paris Nice - Turini was lightning quick until they started track standing. And Dauphine was also solid, although he was definitely weaker than Vingegaard. Then Tour he crashes out and is still 3rd on PdbF while injured and just goes downhill from there. In the Vuelta he simply had a bad preperation, including having done no altitude camp.

Roglic being past it is really their pet theory cause they hype up some other riders. They ignore Thomas being 3 years older and putting out career high watts in the Tour last year.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Not wishing any bad luck, but I don’t know what would be worse. Roglic puling off the double of finishing on the podium of both vs Roglic crashing out like Contador 2014.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I think W/kg estimates aren't as important as I used to think because it ignores tactics, and overall hardness of the stage so much.

Like that stage 11.

 

[CyclistAbi]

According to LR Evenpoel is way above Roglič. Climbing predictions for 2023 season. Evenpoel just broke some climbing records at UAE Tour. Adam Yates finished just ahead of Evenpoel at the last stage. So in a week or so we should have some hard data. From TA where both Roglič and Yates will participate. On how things stand early into 2023 season.

 

[Rackham]

Obviously 2022 was not of the level of 2021. That is down to a mix of injuries, different approach, and age. Reasonable people can disagree on interpretation of that.

I think the 'truth' lies somewhere in between tbh, i.e. Roglič has never been a superman. His level in 2000 & 2001 was indeed massively high but he had bad moments in those years as well. It's just the talk of the time was dominated by the Rog versus Pog headlines & people had a tendency to forget some of the more difficult performances (Covatilla, Angliru in the Vuelta or a few others throughout the season).

I believe his level in the Vuelta 2022 last year before the DNF in those last few stages (specifically stage 14 on the Sierra de la Pandera) tells me he was still capable of hitting GT winning form, despite the prior difficulties & subpar preparation.

So, I sort of have the opinion it's not so much Rog who's getting worse than 2000 & 2001, but it's the competition who've massively improved with for example Evenepoel (obviously), Mas who is better than he was & obviously Vingegaard aka the new superman.

The bottom line (& my point here) is when Jumbo & Roglič say they're going to try to win the Giro 2023, I totally believe he's capable of accomplishing exactly that goal. No matter his age & no matter last year's inconsistent form.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Personally i don't feel anybody will get much better. Compared to Tour 2022. That was it and that are the limits. On top of that likely more measured approach is to be expected. In regards to tactics. Now when the limits are known.

 

[Elos Anjos]

According to LR Evenpoel is way above Roglič. Climbing predictions for 2023 season. Evenpoel just broke some climbing records at UAE Tour. Adam Yates finished just ahead of Evenpoel at the last stage. So in a week or so we should have some hard data. From TA where both Roglič and Yates will participate. On how things stand early into 2023 season.

Data is the new gold.

 

[theyoungest]

According to LR Evenpoel is way above Roglič. Climbing predictions for 2023 season. Evenpoel just broke some climbing records at UAE Tour. Adam Yates finished just ahead of Evenpoel at the last stage. So in a week or so we should have some hard data. From TA where both Roglič and Yates will participate. On how things stand early into 2023 season.

Even those records from UAE have to be taken with a grain of salt. UAE Tour specialist Geoffrey Bouchard finished on 40 seconds, the closest he's ever been in this race. So many factors play a role in how fast they go up a mountain. Based on the evidence of my own eyes you're not telling me that a good Roglic wouldn't have at least finished on par with Evenepoel on that climb.

 

[Oldermanish]

So now it's pretty clear that Pogi wanted to avoid Rogla and chose PN.

Wait????Wasn't Pogi dodging Remco and Rogla avoiding Pogi and others? Dayum....there goes some perfectly good conspiracy theories!

 

[Oldermanish]

According to LR Evenpoel is way above Roglič. Climbing predictions for 2023 season. Evenpoel just broke some climbing records at UAE Tour. Adam Yates finished just ahead of Evenpoel at the last stage. So in a week or so we should have some hard data. From TA where both Roglič and Yates will participate. On how things stand early into 2023 season.

Hard Data? It's not that hard....kinda semi turgid at best.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I'm in the same boat. My posting hiatus is coming to an end after (what seemed anyway) like a really long off season.

Anyway, what a nice surprise this morning to see Rogla on the Tirreno startlist. To me it shows he's recovered well from his operation & is good to go. They wouldn't take any chances, that's for sure.

Strong team as well. Let's hope the weather isn't too bad.

Welcome back. Recently I was wondering what happened to Primoz's biggest fan on the forum but it was just a long off-season for both.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Even those records from UAE have to be taken with a grain of salt. UAE Tour specialist Geoffrey Bouchard finished on 40 seconds, the closest he's ever been in this race. So many factors play a role in how fast they go up a mountain. Based on the evidence of my own eyes you're not telling me that a good Roglic wouldn't have at least finished on par with Evenepoel on that climb.

You are in luck for this not being the Evenpoel thread!

 

[Andy schleck]

According to LR Evenpoel is way above Roglič. Climbing predictions for 2023 season. Evenpoel just broke some climbing records at UAE Tour. Adam Yates finished just ahead of Evenpoel at the last stage. So in a week or so we should have some hard data. From TA where both Roglič and Yates will participate. On how things stand early into 2023 season.

Evenepoel is way above roglic in two places: on LR and in the thread "remco Evenepoel is the next eddie merckx", and is way above anyone in this world, on logic is friend's head.

 

[cen]

The future has been written. https://www.cyclingnews.com/feature...-is-the-milan-san-remo-winner-riding-in-2023/

Screenshot so CN can't hide the evidence. Betting all my money now.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@cen

Next time please use spoiler tag.

P.S. Rogla learning Italian:

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[CyclistAbi]

Big day ahead tomorrow. First taste of racing in 2023 season an already an ITT effort. Pressure to perform right from the first pedal stroke. Fingers crossed.

 

[bNator]

Big day ahead tomorrow. First taste of racing in 2023 season an already an ITT effort. Pressure to perform right from the first pedal stroke. Fingers crossed.

The team said “no pressure”. When have they ever lied?

 

[CyclistAbi]

@bNator

What they meant is you are on your own. We, as in a team, have seen the finale of stage 6. We can't help you there. Hence "no pressure" remark.

 

[acm]

It feels like Christmas Eve.