GC Power Ranking

[Devil's Elbow]

You have to be pretty damn dismissive of the most recent Tour de France to not have Simon Yates in there.

Let's look at the other options for the places behind the big 4 + Thomas:
Ayuso - didn't race
Hart - didn't race
Almeida - didn't race
Mas - crashed out on day 1
Carapaz - crashed out on day 1
Hindley - was well ahead of him before injuring himself
Rodriguez - would have beaten him without his stage 20 crash in spite of a completely disrupted first half of the season
Adam Yates - beat him

It's really not that impressive of a fourth place (similar to Gaudu's in 2022), and then to add to that he's also more inconsistent than almost anyone listed above.

 

[Netserk]

Shame on Ayuso for not performing when he was injured!

In that case, surely you have Hart ahead of Ayuso?

 

[Ilmaestro99]

1. Vineggard
2. Geohegan Hart
3. Pogacar
4. Roglic
5. Evenpoel
6. Adam Yates
7. Juan Ajuso
8. Enric mas
9. Gerant Thomas
10. Joao almida
11. Simon Yates
12. Jai Hindley
13. Carlos Rodriguez
14. Pello Bilbao
15. Mikel Landa
16. David Gaudu
17. Felix Gall
18. Damiano Caruso
19. Thimen Arensemen
20. Superman

 

[Netserk]

Ayuso beat Rodriguez on 2 out of 3 MTFs in the first week of the Vuelta last year, before one of them caught Covid and the other got hampered by a crash. Simon Yates should be nowhere near a top-10 best riders if we're talking about GTs.

And before the Tour this year, I'd have Ayuso ahead of Carlos.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

In that case, surely you have Hart ahead of Ayuso?

Far too easy to put Hart having two horrible seasons in a row down to just injury when he was racing most of the time. His 2020 Giro is too long ago to be relevant now, and his 2023 Giro is a big question mark because we hadn't had a battle in the mountains when he crashed out, so he is certainly the hardest to rank. Can see arguments for him being anywhere from 7th to about 13th.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

And before the Tour this year, I'd have Ayuso ahead of Carlos.

Don't think Rodriguez' Tour was clearly better than Ayuso's Vuelta, or even Ayuso's final two Suisse GC days if you're looking for recency.

 

[Red Rick]

Shame on Ayuso for not performing when he was injured!

Seriously, arguing Ayuso shouldn't be top-10 because of his health issue causing him to not get many results now is the same as arguing Roglic shouldn't be top-5 because of all his injuries causing him not to get many results at the end of last season.

I'm just seeing what take triggers me the hardest into being a flaming hot contrarian.

I feel like I see a lot of bad arguments for positions that are quite normal.

Here we go again

I do like the idea of using injuries as the primary excuse while Roglic literally won the Giro despite nursing injuries after a crash.


In reality, for Ayuso there's IMO just too much extrapolation and too many excuses necessary to warrant a very high spot here. He's 2 years into his WT career, and his one top climbing performance wasn't against any world beaters apart from a post COVID Evenepoel who was very clearly not his best. And I'm not a huge believer in giving credit to riders based on future potential when they still have a lot of improvement to do. It's why I laughed at Rodriguez being a podium favorite in the Tour, it's why I laugh at putting Ayuso high up in this list as well

Injury excuses to me become much more plausible when riders have shown that level before.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Here we go again

I do like the idea of using injuries as the primary excuse while Roglic literally won the Giro despite nursing injuries after a crash.


In reality, for Ayuso there's IMO just too much extrapolation and too many excuses necessary to warrant a very high spot here. He's 2 years into his WT career, and his one top climbing performance wasn't against any world beaters apart from a post COVID Evenepoel who was very clearly not his best. And I'm not a huge believer in giving credit to riders based on future potential when they still have a lot of improvement to do. It's why I laughed at Rodriguez being a podium favorite in the Tour, it's why I laugh at putting Ayuso high up in this list as well

Injury excuses to me become much more plausible when riders have shown that level before.

If I wasn't looking at injuries for other riders as well, I wouldn't have put Roglic a level above Thomas, nor Hart and Carapaz in the big group around 10th.

 

[Netserk]

A power ranking is about what the riders have actually delivered so far, of course judged in the proper context of the performances. Tomorrow's performances will count for tomorrow's power ranking.

 

[Gigs_98]

A power ranking is about what the riders have actually delivered so far, of course judged in the proper context of the performances. Tomorrow's performances will count for tomorrow's power ranking.

Is it though? I think usually a power ranking is all about "if those athletes/teams go up against each other today, who wins?"
Though I admit that concept doesn't work perfectly in a sport where form curves play such a huge role.

 

[tobydawq]

Is it though? I think usually a power ranking is all about "if those athletes/teams go up against each other today, who wins?"
Though I admit that concept doesn't work perfectly in a sport where form curves play such a huge role.

Yeah, that is what it means. Or, like Greg said, if all the riders set themselves to prepare optimally for a GT a few months down the line, how would the favourites ranking then be?

 

[tobydawq]

Here we go again

I do like the idea of using injuries as the primary excuse while Roglic literally won the Giro despite nursing injuries after a crash.


In reality, for Ayuso there's IMO just too much extrapolation and too many excuses necessary to warrant a very high spot here. He's 2 years into his WT career, and his one top climbing performance wasn't against any world beaters apart from a post COVID Evenepoel who was very clearly not his best. And I'm not a huge believer in giving credit to riders based on future potential when they still have a lot of improvement to do. It's why I laughed at Rodriguez being a podium favorite in the Tour, it's why I laugh at putting Ayuso high up in this list as well

Injury excuses to me become much more plausible when riders have shown that level before.

Uh, you do know that Ayuso was 3rd in the Vuelta last year, right?

 

[Gigs_98]

You don't think a minute difference on a single climb refutes that they were pretty much equal? As for the final GC difference, my first sentence answered that.

I don't think whether it was a minute or 40 seconds makes much of a difference, no. Roglic clearly couldn't drop Thomas when he tried to the previous days and got dropped pretty badly just 4 days earlier. How much of that was down to injury is pure speculation on our part. And I don't think a single, very unusual TT changes my opinion too much anyway. I don't think Pogacar was a significantly better gc rider than Roglic in 2020 just because Roglic got spanked on LPdBF.

 

[bNator]

I don't think whether it was a minute or 40 seconds makes much of a difference, no. Roglic clearly couldn't drop Thomas when he tried to the previous days and got dropped pretty badly just 4 days earlier. How much of that was down to injury is pure speculation on our part. And I don't think a single, very unusual TT changes my opinion too much anyway. I don't think Pogacar was a significantly better gc rider than Roglic in 2020 just because Roglic got spanked on LPdBF.

If I understand correctly, your reasoning is that since Roglic was only a bit better than Thomas, then Remco must be better than Roglic because his gap to Thomas is bigger than that of Roglic, right? However, we do have an actual direct comparison between Roglic and Remco this year from Catalunya where Roglic was a bit better than Remco as well. So it is just possible that Thomas in his best form is simply a spectacular GT rider and is often underestimated by fans. He was very fgood in last years Tour as well, for instance...

 

[Gigs_98]

If I understand correctly, your reasoning is that since Roglic was only a bit better than Thomas, then Remco must be better than Roglic because his gap to Thomas is bigger than that of Roglic, right? However, we do have an actual direct comparison between Roglic and Remco this year from Catalunya where Roglic was a bit better than Remco as well. So it is just possible that Thomas in his best form is simply a spectacular GT rider and is often underestimated by fans. He was very fgood in last years Tour as well, for instance...

Did I ever compare Remco to Thomas?

 

[wheresmybrakes]

1. Vineggard
2. Geohegan Hart
3. Pogacar
4. Roglic
5. Evenpoel
6. Adam Yates
7. Juan Ajuso
8. Enric mas
8. Gerant Thomas
9. Joao almida
10. Simon Yates
11. Jai Hindley
12. Carlos Rodriguez
13. Pello Bilbao
14. Mikel Landa
15. David Gaudu
16. Felix Gall
17. Damiano Caruso
18. Thimen Arensemen
19. Superman
20. Ciccone

No Masnada! You're not the real IImaestro99. We have a trespasser!

 

[topcat]

I think we need 8 more threads:
1. Promote your favourite rider
2. Support your local sheriff
3. Answer the question, jerk
4. I’m completely biased but I’m going to pretend I’m so mature and objective
5. I’m going to start an argument with a valid point but I’m going to hurl abuse and go on a mad one so I come out of the argument wrong
6. I’m wired one way and I need to go the other way. Welcome to the Forum
7. A treatise on the Basque influence on professional cycling
8. How did we end up here?

 

[Ilmaestro99]

No Masnada! You're not the real IImaestro99. We have a trespasser!

18 months ago we would all put Fausto in the top 10. Unfortunately for 2023 he has mononuclossis recovery and saddle sore problems, he's not at his best. Soon he will be back to his best level and we can include him once more.

 

[bNator]

Did I ever compare Remco to Thomas?

Not directly. But using Thomas as a reference you said Roglic is overrated and Remco is underrated. I’m suggesting Roglic and Remco are rated correctly (3rd and 4th respectively. Maybe the other way around if Rogla gets beaten this Vuelta) and it’s actually just Thomas who is underrated and should be at least solid 5th…

 

[Tem]

Just go to CQ and check rankings?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Abi in this thread is peak Pistolero/Echoes/Broccolidwarf/Koronin level of infuriating.

I loved reading Pistolero and Echoes posts honestly.

Broccoli is (as in, present, on this forum, somewhere, in disguise...) definitely infuriating.

 

[Filippo_3467]

If it's a power ranking then I would understand it basically as a "if all of those riders would race on a median GT course and have a similar preparation window who will beat whom?" Doesn't really work that way in cycling but It's fun. My take:

1. Vingegaard
2. Pogacar
3.Remco
4.Roglic
5. Thomas
6. Hindley
7. A. Yates
8. Ayuso
9. Almeida
10. Mas

The fringe candidates for that list are...

S.Yates - not on the level of his brother, close call against Mas

Hart - without crash probably 5th in that list because of a second Giro win. But hard to rank as he has shown this level just for a really short time in this spring and was nowhere near that since 2020

C-Rod - big talent but I think quite fair to rank him at the moment behind the 10th place

Gall - if we would restart the Tour he could end 4th

Really looking forward to 24 to see if guys like Martinez, Uijtdebroeks and Poole can enter that Top 10.

Guys that are not near making that top10-list (anymore):

Carapaz, Landa, Vlasov, Gaudu

 

[Potomac]

Can't we just go with PCS?

 

[Potomac]

#	Prev.	Diff.	Rider	Team	Points
1	2	▲1	VINGEGAARD Jonas	Jumbo-Visma	1330
2	8	▲6	YATES Adam	UAE Team Emirates	1157
3	1	▼2	EVENEPOEL Remco	Soudal - Quick Step	1055
4	9	▲5	ALMEIDA João	UAE Team Emirates	1040
5	15	▲10	ROGLIČ Primož	Jumbo-Visma	900
6	20	▲14	LANDA Mikel	Bahrain - Victorious	801
7	3	▼4	POGAČAR Tadej	UAE Team Emirates	780
8	5	▼3	BILBAO Pello	Bahrain - Victorious	750
9	6	▼3	HINDLEY Jai	BORA - hansgrohe	724
10	39	▲29	YATES Simon	Team Jayco AlUla	710
11	26	▲15	PINOT Thibaut	Groupama - FDJ	696
12	17	▲5	SKJELMOSE Mattias	Lidl - Trek	675
13	13	-	O'CONNOR Ben	AG2R Citroën Team	665
14	18	▲4	RODRÍGUEZ Carlos	INEOS Grenadiers	660
15	28	▲13	MAS Enric	Movistar Team	622
16	29	▲13	GAUDU David	Groupama - FDJ	565
17	54	▲37	GEOGHEGAN HART Tao	INEOS Grenadiers	535
18	25	▲7	CARUSO Damiano	Bahrain - Victorious	522
19	103	▲84	RUBIO Einer Augusto	Movistar Team	508
20	112	▲92	GALL Felix	AG2R Citroën Team	486
21	105	▲84	MOHORIČ Matej	Bahrain - Victorious	485
22	31	▲9	LÓPEZ Miguel Ángel	Team Medellín - EPM	467
23	22	▼1	AYUSO Juan	UAE Team Emirates	466
24	57	▲33	HAIG Jack	Bahrain - Victorious	451
25	41	▲16	VAUQUELIN Kévin	Team Arkéa Samsic	448
26	73	▲47	JORGENSON Matteo	Movistar Team	445
27	99	▲72	KUSS Sepp	Jumbo-Visma	434
28	90	▲62	CICCONE Giulio	Lidl - Trek	430
29	77	▲48	MAJKA Rafał	UAE Team Emirates	429
30	76	▲46	SHEFFIELD Magnus	INEOS Grenadiers	407
31	40	▲9	MCNULTY Brandon	UAE Team Emirates	405
32	7	▼25	ARENSMAN Thymen	INEOS Grenadiers	403
33	42	▲9	URÁN Rigoberto	EF Education-EasyPost	393
34	58	▲24	SCHMID Mauro	Soudal - Quick Step	385
35	136	▲101	VAN WILDER Ilan	Soudal - Quick Step	385
36	38	▲2	LEKNESSUND Andreas	Team dsm - firmenich	377
37	395	▲358	GANNA Filippo	INEOS Grenadiers	375
38	249	▲211	POOLE Max	Team dsm - firmenich	366
39	219	▲180	KÄMNA Lennard	BORA - hansgrohe	365
40	85	▲45	DUNBAR Eddie	Team Jayco AlUla	365
41	37	▼4	CARTHY Hugh	EF Education-EasyPost	361
42	145	▲103	UIJTDEBROEKS Cian	BORA - hansgrohe	360
43	16	▼27	MEINTJES Louis	Intermarché - Circus - Wanty	356
44	23	▼21	MARTIN Guillaume	Cofidis	354
45	65	▲20	PIDCOCK Thomas	INEOS Grenadiers	351
46	72	▲26	KELDERMAN Wilco	Jumbo-Visma	340
47	19	▼28	BARDET Romain	Team dsm - firmenich	338
48	12	▼36	THOMAS Geraint	INEOS Grenadiers	325
49	11	▼38	HIGUITA Sergio	BORA - hansgrohe	320
50	75	▲25	FORTUNATO Lorenzo	EOLO-Kometa	316

Solved.

You're welcome.

 

[proffate]

Let's look at the other options for the places behind the big 4 + Thomas:
Ayuso - didn't race
Hart - didn't race
Almeida - didn't race
Mas - crashed out on day 1
Carapaz - crashed out on day 1
Hindley - was well ahead of him before injuring himself
Rodriguez - would have beaten him without his stage 20 crash in spite of a completely disrupted first half of the season
Adam Yates - beat him

It's really not that impressive of a fourth place (similar to Gaudu's in 2022), and then to add to that he's also more inconsistent than almost anyone listed above.

• Simon also crashed at the tour, losing almost exactly the same amount of time as Rodriguez did on the stage he crashed.
• Hindley was only in front because of a breakaway.
• Obviously we can't tell where many of these riders such as Mas or even Kuss could have been.
• 4th in a field that includes Vingegaard and Pogacar makes him second among the humans, behind only another rider who shares his DNA. Hard to argue that the Yates DNA is not top tier GC material in 2023.

The Yates brothers in general are very inconsistent. At some point that does count against your power ranking. But what they showed at the tour this year was convincing. They could have easily won a Vuelta or Giro with that performance and a little luck or a weak field, a la Carapaz and TGH.