GC Power Ranking

[SHAD0W93]

Can't we just go with PCS?

That’s not a powerrankings, that’s result ranking, though unless you really think number 2-6 will finish higher than Pog. I’d allow it just to see @CyclistAbi reaction to Roglic being 5th and Almeida and Evenepoel ahead of him.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

#	Prev.	Diff.	Rider	Team	Points
1	2	▲1	VINGEGAARD Jonas	Jumbo-Visma	1330
2	8	▲6	YATES Adam	UAE Team Emirates	1157
3	1	▼2	EVENEPOEL Remco	Soudal - Quick Step	1055
4	9	▲5	ALMEIDA João	UAE Team Emirates	1040
5	15	▲10	ROGLIČ Primož	Jumbo-Visma	900
6	20	▲14	LANDA Mikel	Bahrain - Victorious	801
7	3	▼4	POGAČAR Tadej	UAE Team Emirates	780
8	5	▼3	BILBAO Pello	Bahrain - Victorious	750
9	6	▼3	HINDLEY Jai	BORA - hansgrohe	724
10	39	▲29	YATES Simon	Team Jayco AlUla	710
11	26	▲15	PINOT Thibaut	Groupama - FDJ	696
12	17	▲5	SKJELMOSE Mattias	Lidl - Trek	675
13	13	-	O'CONNOR Ben	AG2R Citroën Team	665
14	18	▲4	RODRÍGUEZ Carlos	INEOS Grenadiers	660
15	28	▲13	MAS Enric	Movistar Team	622
16	29	▲13	GAUDU David	Groupama - FDJ	565
17	54	▲37	GEOGHEGAN HART Tao	INEOS Grenadiers	535
18	25	▲7	CARUSO Damiano	Bahrain - Victorious	522
19	103	▲84	RUBIO Einer Augusto	Movistar Team	508
20	112	▲92	GALL Felix	AG2R Citroën Team	486
21	105	▲84	MOHORIČ Matej	Bahrain - Victorious	485
22	31	▲9	LÓPEZ Miguel Ángel	Team Medellín - EPM	467
23	22	▼1	AYUSO Juan	UAE Team Emirates	466
24	57	▲33	HAIG Jack	Bahrain - Victorious	451
25	41	▲16	VAUQUELIN Kévin	Team Arkéa Samsic	448
26	73	▲47	JORGENSON Matteo	Movistar Team	445
27	99	▲72	KUSS Sepp	Jumbo-Visma	434
28	90	▲62	CICCONE Giulio	Lidl - Trek	430
29	77	▲48	MAJKA Rafał	UAE Team Emirates	429
30	76	▲46	SHEFFIELD Magnus	INEOS Grenadiers	407
31	40	▲9	MCNULTY Brandon	UAE Team Emirates	405
32	7	▼25	ARENSMAN Thymen	INEOS Grenadiers	403
33	42	▲9	URÁN Rigoberto	EF Education-EasyPost	393
34	58	▲24	SCHMID Mauro	Soudal - Quick Step	385
35	136	▲101	VAN WILDER Ilan	Soudal - Quick Step	385
36	38	▲2	LEKNESSUND Andreas	Team dsm - firmenich	377
37	395	▲358	GANNA Filippo	INEOS Grenadiers	375
38	249	▲211	POOLE Max	Team dsm - firmenich	366
39	219	▲180	KÄMNA Lennard	BORA - hansgrohe	365
40	85	▲45	DUNBAR Eddie	Team Jayco AlUla	365
41	37	▼4	CARTHY Hugh	EF Education-EasyPost	361
42	145	▲103	UIJTDEBROEKS Cian	BORA - hansgrohe	360
43	16	▼27	MEINTJES Louis	Intermarché - Circus - Wanty	356
44	23	▼21	MARTIN Guillaume	Cofidis	354
45	65	▲20	PIDCOCK Thomas	INEOS Grenadiers	351
46	72	▲26	KELDERMAN Wilco	Jumbo-Visma	340
47	19	▼28	BARDET Romain	Team dsm - firmenich	338
48	12	▼36	THOMAS Geraint	INEOS Grenadiers	325
49	11	▼38	HIGUITA Sergio	BORA - hansgrohe	320
50	75	▲25	FORTUNATO Lorenzo	EOLO-Kometa	316

Solved.

You're welcome.

The problem with PCS is its just about points accumulation over the last 12 months . So this is points accumulated in general classements over the last year, and pogacar only did 3 stage races in that time. Ruta del sol, Paris Nixe and Tour de france. He won 2 convincingly and lost the other to Vingegard. But still doesn't get loads of points compared to almida, remco, Yates, landa who did a lot more stage racing and got more points.

 

[Netserk]

behind only another rider who shares his DNA

False.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

#	Prev.	Diff.	Rider	Team	Points
1	2	▲1	VINGEGAARD Jonas	Jumbo-Visma	1330
2	8	▲6	YATES Adam	UAE Team Emirates	1157
3	1	▼2	EVENEPOEL Remco	Soudal - Quick Step	1055
4	9	▲5	ALMEIDA João	UAE Team Emirates	1040
5	15	▲10	ROGLIČ Primož	Jumbo-Visma	900
6	20	▲14	LANDA Mikel	Bahrain - Victorious	801
7	3	▼4	POGAČAR Tadej	UAE Team Emirates	780
8	5	▼3	BILBAO Pello	Bahrain - Victorious	750
9	6	▼3	HINDLEY Jai	BORA - hansgrohe	724
10	39	▲29	YATES Simon	Team Jayco AlUla	710
11	26	▲15	PINOT Thibaut	Groupama - FDJ	696
12	17	▲5	SKJELMOSE Mattias	Lidl - Trek	675
13	13	-	O'CONNOR Ben	AG2R Citroën Team	665
14	18	▲4	RODRÍGUEZ Carlos	INEOS Grenadiers	660
15	28	▲13	MAS Enric	Movistar Team	622
16	29	▲13	GAUDU David	Groupama - FDJ	565
17	54	▲37	GEOGHEGAN HART Tao	INEOS Grenadiers	535
18	25	▲7	CARUSO Damiano	Bahrain - Victorious	522
19	103	▲84	RUBIO Einer Augusto	Movistar Team	508
20	112	▲92	GALL Felix	AG2R Citroën Team	486
21	105	▲84	MOHORIČ Matej	Bahrain - Victorious	485
22	31	▲9	LÓPEZ Miguel Ángel	Team Medellín - EPM	467
23	22	▼1	AYUSO Juan	UAE Team Emirates	466
24	57	▲33	HAIG Jack	Bahrain - Victorious	451
25	41	▲16	VAUQUELIN Kévin	Team Arkéa Samsic	448
26	73	▲47	JORGENSON Matteo	Movistar Team	445
27	99	▲72	KUSS Sepp	Jumbo-Visma	434
28	90	▲62	CICCONE Giulio	Lidl - Trek	430
29	77	▲48	MAJKA Rafał	UAE Team Emirates	429
30	76	▲46	SHEFFIELD Magnus	INEOS Grenadiers	407
31	40	▲9	MCNULTY Brandon	UAE Team Emirates	405
32	7	▼25	ARENSMAN Thymen	INEOS Grenadiers	403
33	42	▲9	URÁN Rigoberto	EF Education-EasyPost	393
34	58	▲24	SCHMID Mauro	Soudal - Quick Step	385
35	136	▲101	VAN WILDER Ilan	Soudal - Quick Step	385
36	38	▲2	LEKNESSUND Andreas	Team dsm - firmenich	377
37	395	▲358	GANNA Filippo	INEOS Grenadiers	375
38	249	▲211	POOLE Max	Team dsm - firmenich	366
39	219	▲180	KÄMNA Lennard	BORA - hansgrohe	365
40	85	▲45	DUNBAR Eddie	Team Jayco AlUla	365
41	37	▼4	CARTHY Hugh	EF Education-EasyPost	361
42	145	▲103	UIJTDEBROEKS Cian	BORA - hansgrohe	360
43	16	▼27	MEINTJES Louis	Intermarché - Circus - Wanty	356
44	23	▼21	MARTIN Guillaume	Cofidis	354
45	65	▲20	PIDCOCK Thomas	INEOS Grenadiers	351
46	72	▲26	KELDERMAN Wilco	Jumbo-Visma	340
47	19	▼28	BARDET Romain	Team dsm - firmenich	338
48	12	▼36	THOMAS Geraint	INEOS Grenadiers	325
49	11	▼38	HIGUITA Sergio	BORA - hansgrohe	320
50	75	▲25	FORTUNATO Lorenzo	EOLO-Kometa	316

Solved.

You're welcome.

I mean, you took the time to post the list, so surely you read it. Do you think that is an accurate reflection of their relative strength in a stage race?

 

[dennisdy]

So some people really believe Roglic would beat Pogacar in one week races? Funny as hell. Pogacar would smoke Roglic in Tirreno-Adriatico and Catalunya this year.

Roglic and Pogacar went head to head once in a one-week stage race, Izulia Basque Country in 2021. Top three: Roglic, Vingegaard, Pogacar.

 

[bNator]

So some people really believe Roglic would beat Pogacar in one week races? Funny as hell. Pogacar would smoke Roglic in Tirreno-Adriatico and Catalunya this year.

Catalunya most likely yes. Tirreno I don’t think so. Just because Roglic didn’t go harder doesn’t mean he couldn’t have. And this year’s terrain in Tirreno would typically prefer Roglic over other riders. Not many chances for Pog to smoke Roglic there…

 

[tobydawq]

False.

Do we really have a conclusive and reliable source that it is?

Because they do certainly resemble each other too much for me to really buy that they're dizygotic.

 

[Red Rick]

Do we really have a conclusive and reliable source that it is?

Because they do certainly resemble each other too much for me to really buy that they're dizygotic.

Sharing no DNA is impressive considering we share about 60% of our genome with bananas.

But I've seen it reported multiple times over the years they're fraternal twins, I don't see a real reason to doubt it. They do look less similar than maternal twins to me.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Catalunya most likely yes. Tirreno I don’t think so. Just because Roglic didn’t go harder doesn’t mean he couldn’t have. And this year’s terrain in Tirreno would typically prefer Roglic over other riders. Not many chances for Pog to smoke Roglic there…

Good joke. Pogi would win Catalunya easily

 

[Peyroteo94]

Roglic and Pogacar went head to head once in a one-week stage race, Izulia Basque Country in 2021. Top three: Roglic, Vingegaard, Pogacar.

TT was very important.

 

[Potomac]

I mean, you took the time to post the list, so surely you read it. Do you think that is an accurate reflection of their relative strength in a stage race?

LMAO.....this thread will never produce such a result.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

LMAO.....this thread will never produce such a result.

Of course. We have imperfect information, relative strength is dynamic, and then that is filtered through real world events that involve chance and outside factors like teams. But discussion is interesting to some, which is typically why we’re on a discussion forum rather than just checking the points list. And anyways, that is all points, not limited to contending for GC in stage races. You are free to attempt to use logic to explain why Landa should be ranked above Pogacar if you’d care to enter the discussion on this discussion forum.

 

[bNator]

Good joke. Pogi would win Catalunya easily

Too bad I claimed he would’t… Or did I? I mean it’s fairly simply written. “Catalunya most likely yes”. I’m failing to see how this can be misinterpreted…

 

[Potomac]

Of course. We have imperfect information, relative strength is dynamic, and then that is filtered through real world events that involve chance and outside factors like teams. But discussion is interesting to some, which is typically why we’re on a discussion forum rather than just checking the points list. And anyways, that is all points, not limited to contending for GC in stage races. You are free to attempt to use logic to explain why Landa should be ranked above Pogacar if you’d care to enter the discussion on this discussion forum.

It is PCS GC points.
You are free to attempt to use logic to explain why quantifying results is somehow inferior to whatever method you used, if you'd care to enter the discussion on this discussion forum.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

It is PCS GC points.
You are free to attempt to use logic to explain why quantifying results is somehow inferior to whatever method you used, if you'd care to enter the discussion on this discussion forum.

Fair play. Quantifying results is a great place to start. I disagree with the results you quantified, however. For a GC power ranking, I would only consider final GC placement in GTs and big 7 stage races within the 2022-2023 seasons, with higher consideration for 2023 results.

And then for a proper power ranking, I would layer in harder to quantify elements like competition, dominance, top end spikes performances, and context. The top 7 all were first or second in a GT in the last two seasons, which, to me, is the best starting point. The next two were third in a GT. I admittedly whiffed on the 10th. In PCS points systems, you’re better off getting OK results in every stage race than winning the Tour, which is a major flaw. Winning the Tour is of course a better predictor of ability to win the Tour than getting fifth in all the top 7 weeklong stage races.

Here is a bit of my rationale:

1. Vingegaard - Dominated the biggest stage race of the year, the Tour, against a 2-time winner who is in his prime. Also won two big 7 stage races.
2. Pogacar - Second in the biggest race of the year, putting Vingegaard under pressure before collapsing. 2 dominant big 7 stage race wins. Some benefit for coming into the Tour underprepared with broken wrist, plus some boost for being a 2-time Tour winner, beating Roglic and Vingegaard, while still being clearly in his prime, unlike G.
3. Roglic - First in the Giro, while winning 2 big stage races, defeating Remco in one. No losses this year. Some benefit from his overall record and the context of suboptimal prep + crashed hard during the Giro, which likely hurt his performance.
4. Remco - First in the Vuelta and second in Catalunya (and way ahead of everyone else). Could have won the Giro but who can say. Arguably above Roglic because he beat him last year, but I elevated recent results in my ranking.
5. Geraint Thomas - second in Giro by just 14 seconds, third in 2022 Tour behind the top 2 on this list. No other stage race results to speak of, but he has only been beaten by the top 3 in this ranking in the last two years GTs he’s raced, so I think that earns him spot 5. Others cannot say the same.
6. Jai Hindley - upon second thought, likely ranked him too high, taking in his first in the 2022 Giro, which was more than 12 months ago. He did crash in the Tour, which hurt his results (7th). Otherwise, could have been third. I would likely bump him down, as his best other results are 4th in the Dauphine and 8th in Catalunya.
7. Enric Mas - second in last years Vuelta behind Remco, which is the result that gets him here.
8. Almeida - Third in Giro, third in Tirreno, second in Catalunya. Based on those results clearly a step below Roglic but not far off. Pretty consistent. Top results are not as strong as those above, however.
9. Adam Yates - Third in the Tour behind the top two on this list, first in Romandie, second in Dauphine. Probably should be 7th on this list. Strong argument for “best of the rest” while clearly being below the top 4 + G IMO.
10. Carlos Rodriguez - Possibly too high. Gave him the benefit of the doubt for finishing fifth in the biggest stage race of the year despite a bad crash and while being so young and on the upswing.

After analyzing a bit further, I would probably change the bottom 5 to:

6. Adam Yates
7. Jaoa Almeida
8. Juan Ayuso
9. Jai Hindley
10. Enric Mas

But I would not add Landa, who is 6th on the pcs list but just got 19th in the Tour and 22nd in the Dauphine. He ranks highly because he races a lot. His best results are 3rd in 2022 Giro and 2nd in Itzulia, which doesn’t beat top results of anyone in my top 10, in part because the Giro was quite a while ago whereas the Tour was just last month.

PCS also has Almeida ahead of Roglic, who beat Almeida in every single stage race (3) that they raced this year. So clearly he should be below Roglic.

Pogacar is not only below Landa in the PCS list (lol) but also below his teammate Adam Yates, who rates himself so far below Pogi that he couldn’t even maintain the bluff that he was a co-leader but instead blurted out that he was working 100% for Pogi. And he did.

 

[Potomac]

I didn't quantify the results, PCS did. I picked it because I think any kind of whimsical sniff test power ranking needs to be compared against some sort of repeatable model, and PCS made it easy with just a couple of clicks.

Their rankings have both good points and bad points.

They weight different races differently...good. But there will never be a consensus on the relative importance of races to each other, and never a consensus of weighting the placements within a race.

Every rider is given equal consideration. Even Landa. That must be good.

That list ranks over last 365 days. Good that a time period is fixed. But I think that's too far back for power rankings.

You only get points for finishing the race. Extremely good. No credit for looking great and not finishing.

I'm only human and seeing Landa on the list doesn't pass my sniff test. At least two posters have raised objections to seeing him there and the complaint he races too much and gets too many results. But finishing a lot of races high enough to score points must be factored in. Surely it is a measure of his power to do so.

 

[CyclistAbi]

That’s not a powerrankings, that’s result ranking, though unless you really think number 2-6 will finish higher than Pog. I’d allow it just to see @CyclistAbi reaction to Roglic being 5th and Almeida and Evenepoel ahead of him.

From this thread point of view i am rather OK with that. That is as long as Rogla keeps finishing ahead on actual races.

 

[Big Doopie]

Fair play. Quantifying results is a great place to start. I disagree with the results you quantified, however. For a GC power ranking, I would only consider final GC placement in GTs and big 7 stage races within the 2022-2023 seasons, with higher consideration for 2023 results.

And then for a proper power ranking, I would layer in harder to quantify elements like competition, dominance, top end spikes performances, and context. The top 7 all were first or second in a GT in the last two seasons, which, to me, is the best starting point. The next two were third in a GT. I admittedly whiffed on the 10th. In PCS points systems, you’re better off getting OK results in every stage race than winning the Tour, which is a major flaw. Winning the Tour is of course a better predictor of ability to win the Tour than getting fifth in all the top 7 weeklong stage races.

Here is a bit of my rationale:

1. Vingegaard - Dominated the biggest stage race of the year, the Tour, against a 2-time winner who is in his prime. Also won two big 7 stage races.
2. Pogacar - Second in the biggest race of the year, putting Vingegaard under pressure before collapsing. 2 dominant big 7 stage race wins. Some benefit for coming into the Tour underprepared with broken wrist, plus some boost for being a 2-time Tour winner, beating Roglic and Vingegaard, while still being clearly in his prime, unlike G.
3. Roglic - First in the Giro, while winning 2 big stage races, defeating Remco in one. No losses this year. Some benefit from his overall record and the context of suboptimal prep + crashed hard during the Giro, which likely hurt his performance.
4. Remco - First in the Vuelta and second in Catalunya (and way ahead of everyone else). Could have won the Giro but who can say. Arguably above Roglic because he beat him last year, but I elevated recent results in my ranking.
5. Geraint Thomas - second in Giro by just 14 seconds, third in 2022 Tour behind the top 2 on this list. No other stage race results to speak of, but he has only been beaten by the top 3 in this ranking in the last two years GTs he’s raced, so I think that earns him spot 5. Others cannot say the same.
6. Jai Hindley - upon second thought, likely ranked him too high, taking in his first in the 2022 Giro, which was more than 12 months ago. He did crash in the Tour, which hurt his results (7th). Otherwise, could have been third. I would likely bump him down, as his best other results are 4th in the Dauphine and 8th in Catalunya.
7. Enric Mas - second in last years Vuelta behind Remco, which is the result that gets him here.
8. Almeida - Third in Giro, third in Tirreno, second in Catalunya. Based on those results clearly a step below Roglic but not far off. Pretty consistent. Top results are not as strong as those above, however.
9. Adam Yates - Third in the Tour behind the top two on this list, first in Romandie, second in Dauphine. Probably should be 7th on this list. Strong argument for “best of the rest” while clearly being below the top 4 + G IMO.
10. Carlos Rodriguez - Possibly too high. Gave him the benefit of the doubt for finishing fifth in the biggest stage race of the year despite a bad crash and while being so young and on the upswing.

After analyzing a bit further, I would probably change the bottom 5 to:

6. Adam Yates
7. Jaoa Almeida
8. Juan Ayuso
9. Jai Hindley
10. Enric Mas

But I would not add Landa, who is 6th on the pcs list but just got 19th in the Tour and 22nd in the Dauphine. He ranks highly because he races a lot. His best results are 3rd in 2022 Giro and 2nd in Itzulia, which doesn’t beat top results of anyone in my top 10, in part because the Giro was quite a while ago whereas the Tour was just last month.

PCS also has Almeida ahead of Roglic, who beat Almeida in every single stage race (3) that they raced this year. So clearly he should be below Roglic.

Pogacar is not only below Landa in the PCS list (lol) but also below his teammate Adam Yates, who rates himself so far below Pogi that he couldn’t even maintain the bluff that he was a co-leader but instead blurted out that he was working 100% for Pogi. And he did.

An excellent and impressive appraisal of the present talent.

I would be one elevating Remco over Rog. But that is as likely to be due to personal bias as you doing the opposite is due to recency bias.

Great summary.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

An excellent and impressive appraisal of the present talent.

I would be one elevating Remco over Rog. But that is as likely to be due to personal bias as you doing the opposite is due to recency bias.

Great summary.

You’re embarrassing me.

 

[Netserk]

The absence of Ayuso in all these top-10s is a glaring omission that I expect to be swiftly rectified in the first week of the Vuelta.

For me, it goes like this:

Vingegaard
Pogacar
Roglic, Evenepoel (in that order)
Thomas, Ayuso (in that order)
And then a rather amorphous blob containing Hindley, Mas, A Yates, Rodriguez, Carapaz, Hart and Almeida where the order becomes really unclear.

First week of the Vuelta has passed. Still doesn't make any sense to rank Ayuso besides Thomas a month ago.

And Kuss will have to enter the rankings.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

First week of the Vuelta has passed. Still doesn't make any sense to rank Ayuso besides Thomas a month ago.

And Kuss will have to enter the rankings.

Thomas' main achievements to be ranked highly is to be the first non-Jumbo/Pogacar rider in the 2022 Tour and 2023 Giro. Ayuso is currently in the same spot in this race, in spite of back issues. I think that list is still accurate, except of course that Kuss most probably goes into the top-5 at the end of this Vuelta.

 

[Netserk]

Ayuso is currently in the same spot in this race, in spite of back issues.

And the fact that the Vuelta was his season target that he has been on track for since Suisse, having ridden no other GT.

Meanwhile, Thomas faced the best on equal footing. And was 3rd in the Tour with more than 6 minutes down to 4th.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

And the fact that the Vuelta was his season target that he has been on track for since Suisse, having ridden no other GT.

Meanwhile, Thomas faced the best on equal footing. And was 3rd in the Tour with more than 6 minutes down to 4th.

Riding no other GT was by necessity after not being able to race until May. Between that and his crash at Ordizia, it was hardly an ideal prep. Big difference between spending all year focusing on the Vuelta and spending most of the year recovering from injury, the only advantage maintained in case of the latter is freshness.

The time gap between Thomas and 4th was amplified by Pogacar going ballistic over and over, and the set of riders from 4th to 10th was really weak by Tour standards. Over 6 minutes up on 4th just becomes a lot less impressive when a) 4th is Gaudu and b) you're down over 7 on Vingegaard and over 4.5 on Pogacar, and ignoring that context really suggests you're cherrypicking time gaps. By your logic, I can also argue that he was only a minute up on Almeida at the Giro and therefore doesn't belong in a higher tier than Almeida - but I'm not, because it ignores the context of the gap to Roglic being even smaller.

Moreover, my original point you quoted and referred to was that Ayuso should definitely be top-10. Surely you'll agree he's at least proven that in this Vuelta?

 

[Netserk]

I wouldn't put him ahead of Mas and Adam Yates yet, maybe not even ahead of Almeida (who he was behind in GC until the latter became ill). So with Kuss moving in instead of Carapaz, I'd probably place him 11th for now, but quite close to Mas.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I doubt this will work, but this is my effort to consolidate discussion about relative strength and ranking of GC riders so that it doesn’t take over the Remco thread then move to the Vingegaard thread then pop into Roglic, etc. This is about stage races, not classics.

Obviously, this will be a fluid thing, but my unscientific and potentially provocative post-2023 Tour / pre-2023 Vuelta ranking is:

1. Jonas Vingegaard
2. Tadej Pogacar
3. Primoz Roglic
4. Remco Evenepoel
5. Geraint Thomas
6. Jai Hindley
7. Enric Mas
8. Joao Almeida
9. Adam Yates
10. Carlos Rodriguez

Curious what others say after the Vuelta (too early to really update rankings IMO), but at this point I’d say:

• Primoz could jump to #2 if he wins.
• Remco drops down, even if that disastrous stage was not representative.
• Kuss jumps into top 5 if he finishes on the podium
• Ayuso likely jumps into top 7
• As I mentioned earlier, Adam Yates was likely ranked too low by me and should be higher