GC Power Ranking

[AmRacer]

Yes,

Tour win > giro win > Vuelta win > tour podium > giro podium > Vuelta podium

Inconsistent
1 Tour 1
2 Giro 1
3 Vuelta 1
4 Tour 2
5 Giro 2
6 Vuelta 2
7 Tour 3
8 Giro 3
9 Vuelta 3

 

[Devil's Elbow]

It's pretty funny how Mas is always on almost everyone's list when we do this right after a Vuelta and on barely anyone's list when we do this right after a Tour, when his results in both races have been the most consistent of any non-big 2 GC rider. Makes me think we collectively aren't that good at doing this.

As always, GT-only ranking:

1. Pogacar

2. Vingegaard

3. Evenepoel (nobody feels even remotely worthy of this spot. However, I don't want to penalise Evenepoel too much for a Tour where he started with compromised prep + broken rib, and when you figure that Roglic seems to have started his decline in earnest, Almeida has never finished on a Tour podium or in the top-2 of a Giro/Vuelta and Lipowitz is a less impressive Tour third place than Evenepoel was last year, I don't know who else is supposed to go here)
4. Almeida
5. Lipowitz
6. Roglic (would be lower if I didn't think his Tour prep was suboptimal too, but otoh I don't see how you can put him over Lipowitz after the past 3 weeks)
7. Mas
8. Ayuso (hardest rider to rank right now)
9. S Yates
10. Carapaz
11. Landa (the other type of rider a lot of us are prone to forgetting about)
12. Del Toro (will be higher, possibly by a lot, with one more year of development, but I can't put someone who was the third-best climber in a depleted Giro with zero other results to back it up in my top-10)
13. Onley (yes, I know that seems like a big difference between him and Lipowitz, but ultimately the only mountain stage he beat Lipowitz is the one where Lipowitz killed himself in the valley and he's also a bad time trialist. In addition, Lipowitz has more results to back up his Tour)

[biggest gap since the one between 2nd and 3rd]

14 and beyond. Nobody remotely worth considering for a top-10

So compared to last year, when I felt we had a fairly clear top-10: no more DFM, three new riders in the mix with Lipowitz, Del Toro and Onley, and the return of Simon Yates. Otherwise, little has changed.

Compared to this:
Almeida has the result that allows me to justify putting him over Evenepoel for third, mainly because he's the only candidate with remotely decent reliability
Ayuso has to be taken out of the top-10, even accounting for a suboptimal prep that was an abysmal Vuelta and it's not like he had a reliable trackrecord before
Hindley and Pidcock (in that order - this route was way better for the latter compared to your average GT and Hindley is the only one with semi-recent results to back it up) enter the top-15, but not the top-10
Very curious how Mas and a healthy Landa would have done in this race. Almost certainly ahead of Pidcock, the real question is whether they could have challenged Almeida or even Vingegaard. I will be dropping Landa slightly because the fact that he wasn't fully recovered here makes me uncertain as to whether we'll ever see him at borderline top 10 in the world level again, given his age

1. Pogacar
2. Vingegaard
3. Almeida
4. Evenepoel
5. Lipowitz
6. Roglic
7. Mas
8. S Yates
9. Carapaz
10. Del Toro
11. Onley
12. Landa
13. Hindley
14. Pidcock
15. Ayuso

 

[hayneplane]

I am not sure the situation behind the clear and obvious top 2 has ever been so difficult to make sense of.

Almeida is probably the 3rd guy with how close he was to Vingegaard in the Vuelta.

Then the questions:
Was Simon Yates on Finestre a 1 day wonder or his level when riding for GC?
Can Remco gain 3 week consistency under his new team?
Will Del Toro/Lipowitz/Onley/Pidcock back up their top 4 finishes next year?
Is Roglic with another 9 months on the clock before the next Grand Tour still a top 5 GC finish prospect?
Carapaz/Hindley - reconfirmation of their level or a one off?
Ayuso/Gee - New team new goals new pecking order. Will they have the support and opportunities to rise in the rankings?

 

[Alien Performance]

I am not sure the situation behind the clear and obvious top 2 has ever been so difficult to make sense of.

Almeida is probably the 3rd guy with how close he was to Vingegaard in the Vuelta.

Then the questions:
Was Simon Yates on Finestre a 1 day wonder or his level when riding for GC?
Can Remco gain 3 week consistency under his new team?
Will Del Toro/Lipowitz/Onley/Pidcock back up their top 4 finishes next year?
Is Roglic with another 9 months on the clock before the next Grand Tour still a top 5 GC finish prospect?
Carapaz/Hindley - reconfirmation of their level or a one off?
Ayuso/Gee - New team new goals new pecking order. Will they have the support and opportunities to rise in the rankings?

The only things I'm sure of here is that Del Toro and Lipowitz will have the legs to podium grand tours next year and that Carapaz and Hindley are still very good GT riders

 

[Brullnux]

Compared to this:
Almeida has the result that allows me to justify putting him over Evenepoel for third, mainly because he's the only candidate with remotely decent reliability
Ayuso has to be taken out of the top-10, even accounting for a suboptimal prep that was an abysmal Vuelta and it's not like he had a reliable trackrecord before
Hindley and Pidcock (in that order - this route was way better for the latter compared to your average GT and Hindley is the only one with semi-recent results to back it up) enter the top-15, but not the top-10
Very curious how Mas and a healthy Landa would have done in this race. Almost certainly ahead of Pidcock, the real question is whether they could have challenged Almeida or even Vingegaard. I will be dropping Landa slightly because the fact that he wasn't fully recovered here makes me uncertain as to whether we'll ever see him at borderline top 10 in the world level again, given his age

1. Pogacar
2. Vingegaard
3. Almeida
4. Evenepoel
5. Lipowitz
6. Roglic
7. Mas
8. S Yates
9. Carapaz
10. Del Toro
11. Onley
12. Landa
13. Hindley
14. Pidcock
15. Ayuso

Gee should be here somewhere. He's done three GTs, was the MVP in his first; ninth in the Tour in his second; 4th in the Giro in his third. He actually gained time on Del Toro from Stage 11-21 I'm pretty sure.

It feels harsh to put Pidcock above him when Gee has a better track record in one and three week races, and given the fact this was a very low quality Vuelta with no actual mountain stages or TT.

 

[proffate]

Inconsistent
1 Tour 1
2 Giro 1
3 Vuelta 1
4 Tour 2
5 Giro 2
6 Vuelta 2
7 Tour 3
8 Giro 3
9 Vuelta 3

It's fine to have that opinion.

UCI puts giro and Vuelta on even footing, and Tour 3rd is almost equivalent but not quite to giro/Vuelta second.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Gee should be here somewhere. He's done three GTs, was the MVP in his first; ninth in the Tour in his second; 4th in the Giro in his third. He actually gained time on Del Toro from Stage 11-21 I'm pretty sure.

It feels harsh to put Pidcock above him when Gee has a better track record in one and three week races, and given the fact this was a very low quality Vuelta with no actual mountain stages or TT.

Gee goes somewhere between 16 and 20. Keep in mind I’m only ranking for GTs, so I don’t care much about what he’s done in one-week races, and that the Giro was unusually bad for better riders not making it to the finish (Roglic, Ayuso and Landa was probably the pre-race podium on paper and all of them abandoned, this is also factored into the placing of Yates, Carapaz and Del Toro). Finishing half an hour down in the Tour is also not really an argument for being a top-15-in-the-world GC rider, IMO.

 

[dercuforever]

Compared to this:
Almeida has the result that allows me to justify putting him over Evenepoel for third, mainly because he's the only candidate with remotely decent reliability
Ayuso has to be taken out of the top-10, even accounting for a suboptimal prep that was an abysmal Vuelta and it's not like he had a reliable trackrecord before
Hindley and Pidcock (in that order - this route was way better for the latter compared to your average GT and Hindley is the only one with semi-recent results to back it up) enter the top-15, but not the top-10
Very curious how Mas and a healthy Landa would have done in this race. Almost certainly ahead of Pidcock, the real question is whether they could have challenged Almeida or even Vingegaard. I will be dropping Landa slightly because the fact that he wasn't fully recovered here makes me uncertain as to whether we'll ever see him at borderline top 10 in the world level again, given his age

1. Pogacar
2. Vingegaard
3. Almeida
4. Evenepoel
5. Lipowitz
6. Roglic
7. Mas
8. S Yates
9. Carapaz
10. Del Toro
11. Onley
12. Landa
13. Hindley
14. Pidcock
15. Ayuso

I'd swap Hindley and S.Yates then it's perfect. I hope Remco can reach again or improve his 24'TDF form.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

1. Pogacar
2. Vingegaard
3. Almeida
4. Yates
5. Lipowitz
6. Roglic

Almeida advanced two places due to the Vuelta performance (and his consistency this year) while Roglic is down 3 places due to no significant GT success in the last 12 months (but I ackowledge his peak level is probably still around #3). Yates' place is a bit problematic to me (his Finestre performance seems one off) but he won a GT this year so let it be.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I’ll wait till the Vuelta for the rest but clear cut top two is:
1. Pogacar

2. Vingegaard

1. Pogacar

2. Vingegaard




These can be interchangeable
3. Almeida
4. Roglic
5. Evenepoel

6. Lipowitz
7. The rest

 

[Vinther1991]

1. Pogacar
2. Vingegaard
3. Almeida
4. Roglic (clinging on as I am still factoring in 2024 and 2023 a little. Catalunya was impressive this year, but it was his weakest season since 2017)
5. Evenepoel (based almost exclusively on the Tour 2024, he has to prove himself next year or he will drop hard).
6. Lipowitz
7. Hindley
8. Carapaz
9. S. Yates
10. Del Toro

 

[Brullnux]

Finishing half an hour down in the Tour is also not really an argument for being a top-15-in-the-world GC rider, IMO.

It was his second ever GT and it was the fastest GT of all time, with absolutely monstrous gaps. Landa finished 20 minutes down.

The way I see it is that whatever GT Gee does next, I think it's a disappointment if he doesn't come top five. The same can't be said for Pidcock.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

The way I see it is that whatever GT Gee does next, I think it's a disappointment if he doesn't come top five. The same can't be said for Pidcock.

Do you really think finishing 6th at next year's Tour would be an underperformance for Gee? With Pogacar, Vingegaard, Almeida, Lipowitz, Evenepoel, Carapaz, Onley, Gall and Pidcock all likely to be riding it for GC?

 

[Squire]

Seems like people are answering a lot of separate questions in this thread, but to me a power ranking is the expected outcome if everyone lined up in top shape for a race tomorrow. Not some aggregate of their results. And because 1-week races and GTs can't really be compared, I'll be judging expected GT 'power'.

1. Pog
2. Vingegaard
3. Almeida
4. Evenepoel
5. Lipowitz
6. Ayuso
7. Roglic
Below that it's very murky, but people like Carapaz, Onley, Mas, Landa, Rodriguez, Gee, Del Toro, Yates, Gall etc. could be lumped together in a 'pretty much the same' basket.

All in all, the current crop of GT contenders behind the top 2-4 is kinda underwhelming.

This was my ranking post-Tour and I pretty much stand by it still. Almeida has somewhat proven me right. But in my summary of all the guys vying for 8th onwards I seemed to have forgotten Hindley. I'm almost tempted to put a healthy and fit Hindley around 6th or 7th, because I think he would have smoked Pidcock on a normal/proper GT route.

Ayuso keeps on not delivering, but I still maintain he should be where he is based on what I think he could do when/if getting things right. We don't really have proper data on Roglic since 2024, so I'm not sure he will keep his spot when he again makes a representative result.

I think the Giro 2025 podium is really overrated by most people here. As Devil's Elbow says, the entire would-be podium might have crashed out of that race.

 

[YavorD]

I would put Evenepoel about 6th.
Yes, he was impressive in the Tour last year, but that's still 1 in 4 GT's where he actually performed, or 2 in 5 if you count the Vuelta 2022.
That's only 15-40% of the GT's he's started.
Yes, he's had real reasons, but the best ability is availability and if you're "available" only 40% of the time, you can't be rated too high. Even though your peak might be the second highest.

1. Pogacar

2 Vingegaard



3. Almeida (admittedly putting some emphasis on 1 week races)
4 Roglic (he will probably drop soon)
5. Hm Evenepoel (couldn't pick anyone above him).
6-7. Lipo/Mas. The former has to confirm what he did in the Tour.
8. Simon/Carapaz
10. Onley/Hindley
12. Del Toro. I think he gets overrated by his wins, but admittedly the Giro lost (DNF'd or simply injured) 5 or 6 of the main contenders (saw some odds pre-Giro and it had Roglic, Ayuso, Yates, Tiberi, Landa, Carapaz top 6 and 5 of them were hurt) and still he was the 3rd best climber.

 

[Brullnux]

Do you really think finishing 6th at next year's Tour would be an underperformance for Gee? With Pogacar, Vingegaard, Almeida, Lipowitz, Evenepoel, Carapaz, Onley, Gall and Pidcock all likely to be riding it for GC?

Obviously it depends on the exact field, but I think that below 6th here would be disappointing, yes, as it means he hasn't sorted out his week one troubles and so hasn't taken the most important step forward. If I were him and I finished behind Gall, Pidcock, and even Onley, I'd be frustrated with myself.

It's worth noting too that despite a raft of unipuertos, this Vuelta had some of the weakest w/kg on longer climbs in recent history.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Obviously it depends on the exact field, but I think that below 6th here would be disappointing, yes, as it means he hasn't sorted out his week one troubles and so hasn't taken the most important step forward. If I were him and I finished behind Gall, Pidcock, and even Onley, I'd be frustrated with myself.

It's worth noting too that despite a raft of unipuertos, this Vuelta had some of the weakest w/kg on longer climbs in recent history.

The Vuelta almost never has great W/kg because nobody is fresh and nobody is peaking for it. Think the climbing times on well-used climbs held up pretty well.

I also don't think it makes sense to repeatedly call out the level of this Vuelta without acknowledging that the Giro field got ripped to shreds by crashes. Ceteris paribus, third to Vingegaard and Almeida but ahead of Hindley is way better than fourth to Yates, Del Toro and Carapaz but ahead of, with all due respect, an ancient Caruso.

 

[Brullnux]

The Vuelta almost never has great W/kg because nobody is fresh and nobody is peaking for it. Think the climbing times on well-used climbs held up pretty well.

I also don't think it makes sense to repeatedly call out the level of this Vuelta without acknowledging that the Giro field got ripped to shreds by crashes. Ceteris paribus, third to Vingegaard and Almeida but ahead of Hindley is way better than fourth to Yates, Del Toro and Carapaz but ahead of, with all due respect, an ancient Caruso.

But that's exactly the point – nobody is fresh and nobody is peaking, so it's an unreliable guide to a GC 'power ranking'. That's why you get Mas, a fundamentally mediocre GC rider, in the top ten, just because he's the only rider who builds his season around the Vuelta. To add to that, this was a historically bad race design that is barely representative of a normal GT, and Pidcock has no history of GC.

Re the Giro field, I personally don't think Landa would've been on the podium nor was a favourite for the podium. When he's performed well in GTs recently he's also been superb in one-week races, and he was good not great in them this year (indeed, finishing behind Gee). I think he'd have finished either just ahead of or just behind Gee, but that's just a counterfactual. Gee finished ahead of Caruso, but was obviously way better than Caruso despite a horrible first week, so it is unfair to use him as a benchmark. I could just as easily say that in a proper GT, Pidcock finished 40 minutes behind Gee.

As is clear, I think you are massively underrating Gee. From Stage 11-21 he climbed more consistently than Del Toro, and he has a better TT than him too. He has been a professional cyclist for only three years and has taken massive steps every year, in a team that doesn't have the set-up of the very best. He climbs well, TTs well, and has excellent recovery ability over three weeks. He will never win the Tour, but if he sorts out his first week issues he is a solid, reliable candidate for podiums at Giro/Vuelta and a top five at the Tour, which is more than can be said for Pidcock (and Mas, frankly).

Lastly, while I know it's easy to mock Gee's Tour last year, he did come 9th in a race where basically every GC name was at – including Carapaz, Yates, Hindley, Mas. It seems a bit counter-intuitive to me to say that 9th in the highest level GC of all time, filled with every good GC rider, is not a good sign that he's top-15 in the world. And, he's improved since then.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Angliru, steepest part, that is on how i have them ATM.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

That's why you get Mas, a fundamentally mediocre GC rider, in the top ten, just because he's the only rider who builds his season around the Vuelta.

Mas in the Tour:
2020 - 5th
2021 - 6th
2022 - DNF (this was the Tour where he was so scared of descending that he made prime Zakarin look technically gifted)
2023 - DNF (crashed out on day 1 with Carapaz)
2024 - this one was admittedly pretty bad
2025 - DNF (thrombophlebitis)

So he's never ridden the Vuelta while fresher than everyone else (unlike Skjelmose last year or Riccitello this year) and is 2/3 for good Tour GCs when he actually made it to the finish. Really don't agree he builds his season solely around the Vuelta - yes, it's a predefined target for him, but that has also been the case for Roglic almost whenever he raced it.

When he's performed well in GTs recently he's also been superb in one-week races, and he was good not great in them this year (indeed, finishing behind Gee).

So the Vuelta route was not typical and therefore doesn't really count, but the hideously easy Tirreno one was typical and therefore counts? Because that's the only one where Landa competed against Gee.

if he sorts out his first week issues

So with Gee you are arguing we should look past his obvious shortcomings, but not with any of the other riders discussed? At that point, you're grading Gee on a different curve to everyone else.

 

[Red Rick]

Tier 1: Pogacar
Tier 1.5: Vingegaard

These 2 require no explanation, they basically automatically win against everyone else.

Tier 2: Roglic, Almeida, Lipowitz

The main favorites when Pogacar and Vingegaard aren't there. For me Roglic has done just enough this year with Ventoux, Peyragudes and Catalunya to show the raw power, and Almeida hasn't really either had the positive outliers or the reliability to be put ahead of him. For me Lipowitz' climbing is at this point more consistent than Evenepoels ever was

Tier 2.5: Evenepoel

You can't just go and produce absolutely nothing in Grand Tours for 2 out of the last 3 years and then be considered at equal level to the other 3. And it's not just GTs. In smaller races he doesn't produce on big climbs, he can't do 2 GTs in a year for GC, when he's slightly off he's instantly out of GC altogether. Basically he can be tier 2, but he's less reliable than the others, and I won't really fight people on this either.

Tier 3: Simon Yates, Pidcock, Onley, Del Toro, Mas, Carapaz

Can be surprise winners in a weak Giro/Vuelta,mostly when Tiers 1 through 2 aren't there aka most likely fluke candidates. This is where I put less emphasis on consistency, cause it's about outsider results and unlikely winners by nature, so for me glimpses of a very high level matter more than getting 6th reliably.

Tier 4: Kuss, Jorgenson, Adam Yates, Pellizzari, Landa, Bernal, Gee, Gall, Johanessen and the lot.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Tier 4: Kuss

He recently won a GT against Rogla and Jonas.

 

[Netserk]

1. Wonderboy
2. Vingegaard
3. Rogla
4. Almeida
5. Lipowitz
6. Landa
7. Carapaz
8. Simon
9. Hindley
10. Del Toro
11. Onley
12. Ayuso
13. Gall
14. Mas
15. Pidcock
16. Adam
17. Geesus
18. Jorgenson
19. Pellizzari
20. Skjelmose

For this season, so counter-factual simulations are seeded at the beginning of the year. All stage races are considered, top-level, how reliably it can be reached, seasonal consistency, robustness, some reversion to the mean for outliers, and team role are factors.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

1. Wonderboy
2. Vingegaard
3. Rogla
4. Almeida
5. Lipowitz
6. Landa
7. Carapaz
8. Simon
9. Hindley
10. Del Toro
11. Onley
12. Ayuso
13. Gall
14. Mas
15. Pidcock
16. Adam
17. Geesus
18. Jorgenson
19. Pellizzari
20. Skjelmose

For this season, so counter-factual simulations are seeded at the beginning of the year. All stage races are considered, top-level, how reliably it can be reached, seasonal consistency, robustness, some reversion to the mean for outliers, and team role are factors.

Landismo 6th, what a legend

 

[Netserk]

But that's exactly the point – nobody is fresh and nobody is peaking, so it's an unreliable guide to a GC 'power ranking'. That's why you get Mas, a fundamentally mediocre GC rider, in the top ten, just because he's the only rider who builds his season around the Vuelta. To add to that, this was a historically bad race design that is barely representative of a normal GT, and Pidcock has no history of GC.

Re the Giro field, I personally don't think Landa would've been on the podium nor was a favourite for the podium. When he's performed well in GTs recently he's also been superb in one-week races, and he was good not great in them this year (indeed, finishing behind Gee). I think he'd have finished either just ahead of or just behind Gee, but that's just a counterfactual. Gee finished ahead of Caruso, but was obviously way better than Caruso despite a horrible first week, so it is unfair to use him as a benchmark. I could just as easily say that in a proper GT, Pidcock finished 40 minutes behind Gee.

As is clear, I think you are massively underrating Gee. From Stage 11-21 he climbed more consistently than Del Toro, and he has a better TT than him too. He has been a professional cyclist for only three years and has taken massive steps every year, in a team that doesn't have the set-up of the very best. He climbs well, TTs well, and has excellent recovery ability over three weeks. He will never win the Tour, but if he sorts out his first week issues he is a solid, reliable candidate for podiums at Giro/Vuelta and a top five at the Tour, which is more than can be said for Pidcock (and Mas, frankly).

Lastly, while I know it's easy to mock Gee's Tour last year, he did come 9th in a race where basically every GC name was at – including Carapaz, Yates, Hindley, Mas. It seems a bit counter-intuitive to me to say that 9th in the highest level GC of all time, filled with every good GC rider, is not a good sign that he's top-15 in the world. And, he's improved since then.

I think Geesus is a diamond in the rough, a possible future GT winner. But he disappointed me somewhat in the Giro, I had expected a stronger finish to the race after he got going.