Giro 2013: Stage-by-stage analysis

[Eshnar]

I updated the analysis with the new profiles.

stage 1 is now a bunch sprint at 100%, and it's a lot shorter than before.
stage 3 is 10 kms longer, and one of the first climb have been changed.
stage 6 has a lap more than originally planned, but that doesn't change a thing.
stage 7 has a harder finish, I like.
stage 8 has been shortened by 800m but the final kick-up is still there.
stage 9 will not have the worlds circuit, but Fiesole will be climbed from the opposite side and the finale will be different and slightly uphill.
stage 11 is now an uphill spint on the Vajont.
stage 13 has a different set of hills and it's now the longest of the race... it should go to a breakaway anyway.
stage 14 is longer, but no significant changes
stage 16 has a different finale, with 8 kms of flat after a longer descent.
stage 17 is longer and the final climb slightly different.
stage 18 is 1.2 kms longer, now it's 20.6 kms long.

 

[Netserk]

You are so awesome Eshnar! _O_

 

[Eshnar]

You are so awesome Eshnar! _O_

I know
The gazzetta's images are too big though. Figuring out how to change them...

 

[Netserk]

I know
The gazzetta's images are too big though. Figuring out how to change them...

I can resize them for you if you want

The width is 1200 atm, and I normally resize pictures down to 1000 or 800.

 

[burning]

I know
The gazzetta's images are too big though. Figuring out how to change them...

Great work man, thanks alot

You can change the sizes at paint but that could take too long to change and upload each of them individually

 

[Eshnar]

I can resize them for you if you want

The width is 1200 atm, and I normally resize pictures down to 1000 or 800.

It's too much of a work to resize all of them If you're willing to do it, well thanks

 

[Netserk]

I normally use Imgur, but lately it has been slow with the uploading.

 

[Netserk]

Example:

Original image of map

Original image of profile

Width 1000:

Width 800:

 

[Eshnar]

yes I'd say the width at 1000 is perfect... But seriously, I should resize around 50 images...

 

[Netserk]

yes I'd say the width at 1000 is perfect... But seriously, I should resize around 50 images...

Given the amount of (very good) work you already have done, I wouldn't resizing them (and make them linking to the full size picture).

IF you deem them too big. If not, why bother? Although I normally resize pictures of other posters that are too big (or just change it to a link) I don't mind the width in this case.

 

[Eshnar]

Given the amount of (very good) work you already have done, I wouldn't resizing them (and make them linking to the full size picture).

IF you deem them too big. If not, why bother? Although I normally resize pictures of other posters that are too big (or just change it to a link) I don't mind the width in this case.

I'll let them be for now... Maybe one day I'll resize them

 

[JRanton]

Fantastic work Eshnar.

Nibali has to be the big favourite on this route! That stage 7 is Wiggo's worst nightmare (he could easily lose the Giro just on that stage) and that's before we even get started on the high mountain stuff...

Absolutely shocking route for the sprinters! I suppose at least there is the carrot of the first stage but Cav might as well go home after stage 6.

 

[Descender]

Thanks for that Eshnar, I don't know if I told you back then.

Looking forward to this.

 

[JRanton]

Also the last 1km of the long TT is just pure evil. We'll see some riders completely blow up there.

 

[hidache]

Also the last 1km of the long TT is just pure evil. We'll see some riders completely blow up there.

last 3,3km is 5,2% average and last km is 9%

 

[Eshnar]

Absolutely shocking route for the sprinters! I suppose at least there is the carrot of the first stage but Cav might as well go home after stage 6.

There will be 4 bunch sprints... If I were Cav I wouldn't go at all, but since he's going I guess he could even go all the way to Brescia. After all he did all the race last year even if all was lost after stage 18. He seems to really enjoy the Giro (and that's quite unusual for a non Italian sprinter)

 

[serfla]

I've took a look at the route once again, and again I have impression it favors Wiggins.
Not only because of the tt(s), more due to the schedule of the stages.
If everything goes without unexpected loses, he's going to be in position where he'll know what (advantage) he'll have to defend, which is huge advantage keeping in mind Sky's (in comparison to other teams) advanced calculative approach.
Tre Cime really is the climb (and stage) where Wiggins could be cracked, but it's at the end, and anyone who has the jersey before the stage will dig very deep to keep it, escecially Wiggo with all logistics.
It would have been more fair to give a chance a piece to climbers and time trialists - to put climbers in position to defend in time trials, and not only to time trialists on climbs.
A Zoncolan (kind of) climb is what this route is missing with Nibali - Wiggins duel expected.

 

[Eshnar]

It would have been more fair to give a chance a piece to climbers and time trialists - to put climbers in position to defend in time trials, and not only to time trialists on climbs.

You can't "defend" in tts. Everyone does what he can. On the other hand, having a tt after the climbs means that during the climbs the gc will be relatively close, and people will be afraid to waste energy attacking and lose positions (we saw last year). The ITT of the last day is something I always hated for this reason.
Now, I have to say the last sprint stage sucks more there were better alternatives. But the ITT in the first week is exactly where it's supposed to be.

 

[jsem94]

Stage 7 - half the peloton abandons? Or will they all jointly pull an Alpe-2011 stage and everyone gets to stay?

That stage has potential for carnage. Tirreno truly showed that.

 

[Eshnar]

Stage 7 - half the peloton abandons? Or will they all jointly pull an Alpe-2011 stage and everyone gets to stay?

That stage has potential for carnage. Tirreno truly showed that.

depends on the weather

 

[serfla]

You can't "defend" in tts. Everyone does what he can. On the other hand, having a tt after the climbs means that during the climbs the gc will be relatively close, and people will be afraid to waste energy attacking and lose positions (we saw last year). The ITT of the last day is something I always hated for this reason.
Now, I have to say the last sprint stage sucks more there were better alternatives. But the ITT in the first week is exactly where it's supposed to be.

Off course you can.
We've seen numerous extraordinary tt performances when guys were in the leading jersey.
Defending in tt means the same what digging deep on climbs mean.

Edit
Maybe the mountain tt should have been the conclusive stage.

 

[Eshnar]

Off course you can.
We've seen numerous extraordinary tt performances when guys were in the leading jersey.
Defending in tt means the same what digging deep on climbs mean.

except that in a ITT no one can help you.
We've seen many extraordinary performances... well maybe not so many.

 

[serfla]

except that in a ITT no one can help you.
We've seen many extraordinary performances... well maybe not so many.

Nibali is a rider who can pull a great tt. That's the point.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Thanks for the update stage profiles. Other than stage 1, most changes are for the better, it seems. Though they don't necessarily favor Nibali, suprisingly enough.

Gotta say that this is one of the hardest GT routes in recent history , even though it lacks a Zoncolan / Mortirolo type of climb.

 

[airstream]

If any balance in stage races design exists, it is the 2013 Giro! I wonder whether Nibali will take a risk to attack on hilly stages in the first week. Cool that a long time trial has a difficult profile. It enlarges a super time trialist's edge even more IMO