Giro 2017, stage 10: Foligno - Montefalco 39,8km (ITT)

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

A lot depends on Quintana's TT'ing. He's not done many TT's this year, and last year he was very good outside GTs but still sucked a bit in GTs. You could blame the Tour TTs on bad form, but the Vuelta wasn't too good.

Dumoulin absolutely has to crush this if he wants a chance of a miracle. If Quintana stays within 1'30 and 1'00 of Pinot, I think it's game over.

Thats not really true, his time trial in the Vuelta was pretty good all things considered, they were just going up against a monster performance by Froome which made the time trial look worse than it was. I think that was a good performance and something similar that you can expect tomorrow, around 2 minutes.

He sucked in the Tour, that goes for time trailing, climbing etc. That we know.

 

[RedheadDane]

I just love the name of the finish location. If I'm not completely mistaken it means something akind to Falcon Mountain.

 

[Robert5091]

Movistar would probably be glad to lose the pink jersey for a few days. G to come back and TT himself into top 10.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

This CRI is very reminiscent of the one we had in '14, when the likes of Pozzovivo and Brambilla somehow managed to top 10.

No that was a bit harder in terms of steep climbs. Here the gradient never passes 5%, so I think it's a bit kinder to specialists.

 

[Volderke]

Re:

Dumoulin
Nibali 1'20
Pinot 1'30
Quintana 2'00
Mollema 2'10
Pozzovivo 2'40

Pozzovivo at 2'40? He is in good shape and can ride a very good hilly TT.
I don't see Nibali doing a better TT than e.g. Mollema. They all look quite similar (Nibali / Pinot, Quintana), all around 1.30.
I don't know if Dumoulin will win the TT. There are some others (like Jungels) in the running.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Has Jungels ever beaten Dumoulin when the latter one was in top shape?

 

[Malmeren]

Re: Re:

Are any of the GC men likely to have an off day after the rest day?

Tejay

No I meant GC men

As in: Does e.g. Pinot have a weakness after a rest day? Or Nibali, Mollema, Dumo, etc...?

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

A lot depends on Quintana's TT'ing. He's not done many TT's this year, and last year he was very good outside GTs but still sucked a bit in GTs. You could blame the Tour TTs on bad form, but the Vuelta wasn't too good.

Dumoulin absolutely has to crush this if he wants a chance of a miracle. If Quintana stays within 1'30 and 1'00 of Pinot, I think it's game over.

Thats not really true, his time trial in the Vuelta was pretty good all things considered, they were just going up against a monster performance by Froome which made the time trial look worse than it was. I think that was a good performance and something similar that you can expect tomorrow, around 2 minutes.

He sucked in the Tour, that goes for time trailing, climbing etc. That we know.

Even in the Tour though, with his terrible form, he still beat riders like Porte, Kreuziger, Cancellara, Chavanel and Nibali in the long TT.

He seems very good at pacing in TTs so limits his losses really well compared with stronger riders. Especially on rolling courses I think Quintana has a good idea where to go over threshold and where to recover slightly. (probably with a lot of help from Movistar, who probably get better TT performances out of their riders than any other team).

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

Are any of the GC men likely to have an off day after the rest day?

Tejay

No I meant GC men

As in: Does e.g. Pinot have a weakness after a rest day? Or Nibali, Mollema, Dumo, etc...?

Mollema is usually pretty average after a rest day.

TDumo pretty good

 

[manolo57]

Re: Re:

Are any of the GC men likely to have an off day after the rest day?

Tejay

No I meant GC men

As in: Does e.g. Pinot have a weakness after a rest day? Or Nibali, Mollema, Dumo, etc...?

Mollema is usually pretty average after a rest day.

TDumo pretty good

Pinot is usually good (ex : Port de Bales 2014 or Pra loup 2015).

 

[King Boonen]

There is a lot of riding left and a lot of stages where the climbers can attack the TTers. I think Dumoulin needs 2 1/2 to 3 minutes cushion on Quintana to make it a race.

Nibali overtaking Quintana would be very interesting. There are some tailor made stages for Nibali to attack and distance the other GC riders.

 

[Matteo.]

The problem is...nibali is practically alone, only Pellizzotti can help. It will be hard attack quintana( and movistar) from afar

 

[King Boonen]

Nibali can spring one crazy attack and take time, or he can distance or catch back on on the descents. It's going to be hard for him but he's the kind of rider who you can never fully write off.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Nibali can spring one crazy attack and take time, or he can distance or catch back on on the descents. It's going to be hard for him but he's the kind of rider who you can never fully write off.

Fingers crossed here for Nibali as well. He's got to stay withing touching distance of Quintana going into the final week, and then I think we could have a race on. If he's close, then even if he doesn't win, he's sure to go all out trying to do so, which will be fun to watch.

 

[King Boonen]

Yep, a good performance in this TT will really open it up. We could be looking at a 4-5 horse race. It's a shame about Thomas, Yates and Landa as they could easily have made it 6-8 horse race and that's not counting Zakarin or Mollema who theoretically could keep themselves in contention with a great TT.

 

[WheelofGear]

What's the chance of Quintana getting in top 10?

He'll still lose at least 1:30 on Dumoulin. Maybe as much as 3 minutes.

 

[Guybrush]

Re:

What's the chance of Quintana getting in top 10?

He'll still lose at least 1:30 on Dumoulin. Maybe as much as 3 minutes.

a very good one, imo he should be at 1:10-1:20.

also Amador, rate him for this one.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Nibali can spring one crazy attack and take time, or he can distance or catch back on on the descents. It's going to be hard for him but he's the kind of rider who you can never fully write off.

Fingers crossed here for Nibali as well. He's got to stay withing touching distance of Quintana going into the final week, and then I think we could have a race on. If he's close, then even if he doesn't win, he's sure to go all out trying to do so, which will be fun to watch.

He will be helped by the very easy second week. The only mtf is Oropa, which is a climb that will produce minimal gaps even if Quintana is in great shape. Then there is two medium mountain stages which I'd say Nibali has the edge on (should he choose to do anything)

 

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

Nibali can spring one crazy attack and take time, or he can distance or catch back on on the descents. It's going to be hard for him but he's the kind of rider who you can never fully write off.

Fingers crossed here for Nibali as well. He's got to stay withing touching distance of Quintana going into the final week, and then I think we could have a race on. If he's close, then even if he doesn't win, he's sure to go all out trying to do so, which will be fun to watch.

He will be helped by the very easy second week. The only mtf is Oropa, which is a climb that will produce minimal gaps even if Quintana is in great shape. Then there is two medium mountain stages which I'd say Nibali has the edge on (should he choose to do anything)

I would not be surprised to see Nibali put Quintana under pressure on the descent into Firenze on stage 11 if he gets the chance from the top of Fumaiolo, although the steep finish to that climb might limit his chances.

 

[python]

looking at what's left and his specialization, i put quintana's chance at winning overall at medium to fair. no better..

depending on on how his competition feels, nairo has at least 3 'pure' mtf stages and 2 more mountainous stages where he may make a difference. assessing his relatively small gaps yesterday on the mountain most suiting him, it is difficult to see him accumulating enough time to offset his inevitable losses in the 2 remaining itts.

but this is not even half the giro yet... we dont know how the quintana peaking/fatigue or his rivals peaking/fatigue was programmed by their coaches...i can only count on nibali to continue improving. pozzo will likely slide back and ilnur will likely move up...

 

[GraftPunk]

Re:

looking at what's left and his specialization, i put quintana's chance at winning overall at medium to fair. no better..

depending on on how his competition feels, nairo has at least 3 'pure' mtf stages and 2 more mountainous stages where he may make a difference. assessing his relatively small gaps yesterday on the mountain most suiting him, it is difficult to see him accumulating enough time to offset his inevitable losses in the 2 remaining itts.

but this is not even half the giro yet... we dont know how the quintana peaking/fatigue or his rivals peaking/fatigue was programmed by their coaches...i can only count on nibali to continue improving. pozzo will likely slide back and ilnur will likely move up...

Zak seems to be going backwards though, probably due to his crashes. I was expecting a bit more from him up Blockhaus, but I suppose we'll see.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Are any of the GC men likely to have an off day after the rest day?

Tejay

That's not an off day, that's a normal day.

 

[movingtarget]

Aside from Dumoulin, who could win the stage? I think there aren't really many TT specialists

Realistically? Im not sure but Kangert looked mighty strong today and when hes on he can do great time trials.

Yes this course will suit Kangert. No Martin or Dennis so Dumoulin should be favourite.

 

[Kwibus]

If there will be a lot of wind that a bonus for Tom and Mollema.

 

[yaco]

This course perfectly suits Kiriyenko - Has ridden ordinary TT's in 2017 but they have been much shorter and flatter courses - I suspect he's been foxing in 2017.