Giro d'Italia 2017 rumours - Il Centesimo

[Eshnar]

I know I said I wouldn't write my usual route sketch before the official start location is announced, but to hell with it

The following route is based on the assumption that they will not visit BOTH Sicily and Sardinia, but they'll start with 3 stages in one of the two islands.

I'll put stars to show the likelihood of each stage, as I've always done.

* just for the lolz
** It was rumoured...
*** Reliable rumour OR strongly rumoured but old
**** Rumoured by multiple sources
***** It is happening

1 -- 3 Sardinia or Sicily
4 ???
5 ???
6 ??? - Alberobello [flat] ***
7 Molfetta - Peschici [hilly] ***
8 ???
9 ??? - Terminillo [MTF] ****
rest
10 ??? - Gualdo Tadino [flat?] **
11 Perugia - Bagno di Romagna [hilly/mountain] ***
12 Forli' - Pistoia [hilly] ***
13 ??? - somewhere in Po Valley [flat]
14 Franciacorta [ITT] ****
15 ??? - Presolana [MTF] ***
rest
16 Bergamo - Stelvio [MTF] ****
17 Ponte di Legno? - Aprica [MTF] ***
18 ??? - Treviso? [flat] **
19 ??? - Piancavallo [MTF] ***
20 ??? - Pordoi [MTF] ****
21 ??? [flat]

Ofc this assumes a lot of non-trivial things.
For example, that the recent Stelvio deal didn't kick Aprica out of the route.
Also, the 4 mountain stages in the last week are probably a bit too many, and their placement could also be swapped (first going east and then coming back to the central Alps), but I do think this is the placement that would make the most sense. Take it as a wish more than an actual forecast

 

[El Pistolero]

I wonder who of the big 4 will start?

2013: Nibali
2014: Quintana
2015: Contador
2016: Nibali

They were also all the winners of those editions. Maybe none will start next year?

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

I wonder who of the big 4 will start?

2013: Nibali
2014: Quintana
2015: Contador
2016: Nibali

They were also all the winners of those editions. Maybe none will start next year?

I would expect the 100th Giro to have a very good participation.
That said, it's way too early to tell.

 

[manolo57]

- Contador has won the Giro 3 times, he doesn't care about it any more. He only wants to win the Tour again. He will not start.
- Quintana wasn't happy really to go to the Giro in 2014, and now he has won it, I don't think he will come back soon. Maybe when he will have won the Tour.
- Froome maybe. But I think he would like to defend his Tour title, but win the Giro could be a huge achievement in his career. He also knows the double is nearly impossible.
- Nibali will come I think. He's not interested in a podium at the Tour, and win it seems to be difficult for him now.

But we have to remember it's the 100th Giro, and it could be important for all these guys. Especially Nibali who is Italian. It would be bad to have anyone of the big Four for the 100th edition.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Re:

- Contador has won the Giro 3 times, he doesn't care about it any more.

The Clinic is this way.

viewforum.php?f=20

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

I wonder who of the big 4 will start?

2013: Nibali
2014: Quintana
2015: Contador
2016: Nibali

They were also all the winners of those editions. Maybe none will start next year?

I think only Nibali will ride out of the 4. Pinot, Kruijswijk, Uran.. one out of Aru/M.A. Lopez. I think I read no Chaves and no Yates. Possibly Tejay after another failure. Valverde? Possibly. Landa, Henao, Poels?...

I have probably forgot a few, but those will probably be the marquee names. Pretty strong, but not out of this world.

 

[El Pistolero]

Re: Re:

I wonder who of the big 4 will start?

2013: Nibali
2014: Quintana
2015: Contador
2016: Nibali

They were also all the winners of those editions. Maybe none will start next year?

I think only Nibali will ride out of the 4. Pinot, Kruijswijk, Uran.. one out of Aru/M.A. Lopez. I think I read no Chaves and no Yates. Possibly Tejay after another failure. Valverde? Possibly. Landa, Henao, Poels?...

I have probably forgot a few, but those will probably be the marquee names. Pretty strong, but not out of this world.

A battle between Aru, Pinot and Nibali could be interesting. Hopefully Nibali ups his game compared to this year though, he was rather weak in the Giro, even if he won it.

 

[Red Rick]

Afaik.

Contador said in 2015 it would be (very likely or certainly?) his last Giro. Will do Tour in 2017.
Froome has mentioned it like once or something, but then after the Tour he says he's gonna do the Tour for the next 5 years or so.
Quintana has said it's possible. He really wasn't happy about going in 2014? Is he that Tour centered?
I don't remember Nibali saying anything about it, but I assume he'll go, 100th Giro, defending champ, possible start/passage at Sicily/etc.

Further

Aru will probably go Giro I'd assume
Kruijswijk confirmed already
Poels will probably go Giro, I'm thinking co-leadership with Landa
I'd assume Valverde to just go Tour-Vuelta again, with no Olympics and a decently hilly Worlds.
Orica is likely gonna send the Yates bro's and Chavez to the Tour
Mollema isn't eva gonna go Giro

No clue about all the others

 

[dacooley]

quite sure RCS will manage to invent some marketing hook to wile 2 or 3 big boys for taking part in the Il Centesimo!!!

 

[Brullnux]

Froome has hinted strongly a couple of times at a Giro-Tour double. 90% Froome vs 100% Nibali should be fun if it happens, with Krashweak and Aru thrown in as well.

 

[barmaher]

I know I said I wouldn't write my usual route sketch before the official start location is announced, but to hell with it

The following route is based on the assumption that they will not visit BOTH Sicily and Sardinia, but they'll start with 3 stages in one of the two islands.

I'll put stars to show the likelihood of each stage, as I've always done.

* just for the lolz
** It was rumoured...
*** Reliable rumour OR strongly rumoured but old
**** Rumoured by multiple sources
***** It is happening

1 -- 3 Sardinia or Sicily
4 ???
5 ???
6 ??? - Alberobello [flat] ***
7 Molfetta - Peschici [hilly] ***
8 ???
9 ??? - Terminillo [MTF] ****
rest
10 ??? - Gualdo Tadino [flat?] **
11 Perugia - Bagno di Romagna [hilly/mountain] ***
12 Forli' - Pistoia [hilly] ***
13 ??? - somewhere in Po Valley [flat]
14 Franciacorta [ITT] ****
15 ??? - Presolana [MTF] ***
rest
16 Bergamo - Stelvio [MTF] ****
17 Ponte di Legno? - Aprica [MTF] ***
18 ??? - Treviso? [flat] **
19 ??? - Piancavallo [MTF] ***
20 ??? - Pordoi [MTF] ****
21 ??? [flat]

Ofc this assumes a lot of non-trivial things.
For example, that the recent Stelvio deal didn't kick Aprica out of the route.
Also, the 4 mountain stages in the last week are probably a bit too many, and their placement could also be swapped (first going east and then coming back to the central Alps), but I do think this is the placement that would make the most sense. Take it as a wish more than an actual forecast

Thanks Eshnar. That looks nice so far. I would prefer if at least one of the final week mountain stages wasn't a mountain top finish, but that is just me.

I guess the route will depend on the quality of the medium mountain stages, as always (in my view!)

 

[Brullnux]

Fedaia-Pordoi MTF would be amazing. Aprica is barely a MTF and Piancavallo is a good penultimate stage if the last stage is so hard, as it will naturally create gaps.

 

[SafeBet]

Valverde said he could come back next year after his podium.

 

[Gigs_98]

I'm not sure yet if I really like it.
As usually I don't really know what to expect from the first two weeks since I just don't know many of those areas and I don't know which climbs you could use there. But since it's the 100th giro I wished for a few more famous finishes. Same more or less counts for the third week. I honestly can't imagine the Aprica stage will be there if they make a Stelvio mtf from the south. And the remaining alps stages just aren't what I hoped for. Stelvio and Gavia are legendary climbs but there are better ways to use it. Presolana could also be great but without Vivione I don't know how the stage will be. Pordoi is of course great but Piancavallo? Why on earth do they want to use this climb exactly in the 100th giro. Afaik there are no good climbs you can put before it and it flattens out at the end. Normally that won't be a problem but it means that the riders have to attack relatively early on the climb and I don't know if they would want to do that with a dolomites stage the next day.
For a normal giro I would really like this route but for the 100th I would expect a little bit more (Ofc everything is still possible. Basically the whole last week from this year was completely unknown at this point last year)

Besides all that, what about the rumor that there will be a stage in South Tyrol? Does Stelvio count as that finish (I think it's on the border) or is there maybe something else rumored?

 

[Eshnar]

I'm not sure yet if I really like it.
As usually I don't really know what to expect from the first two weeks since I just don't know many of those areas and I don't know which climbs you could use there. But since it's the 100th giro I wished for a few more famous finishes. Same more or less counts for the third week. I honestly can't imagine the Aprica stage will be there if they make a Stelvio mtf from the south. And the remaining alps stages just aren't what I hoped for. Stelvio and Gavia are legendary climbs but there are better ways to use it. Presolana could also be great but without Vivione I don't know how the stage will be. Pordoi is of course great but Piancavallo? Why on earth do they want to use this climb exactly in the 100th giro. Afaik there are no good climbs you can put before it and it flattens out at the end. Normally that won't be a problem but it means that the riders have to attack relatively early on the climb and I don't know if they would want to do that with a dolomites stage the next day.
For a normal giro I would really like this route but for the 100th I would expect a little bit more (Ofc everything is still possible. Basically the whole last week from this year was completely unknown at this point last year)

Besides all that, what about the rumor that there will be a stage in South Tyrol? Does Stelvio count as that finish (I think it's on the border) or is there maybe something else rumored?

The South Tyrol stage atm is just too vague for me to include it. And no, the Stelvio would definitely not count as that.

I also agree that Piancavallo doesn't fit in the 100th Giro, but Friuli wants a stage (and they WILL get one) and that is their plan A. As I said, it is not 100% sure so we'll see.

As for the second week, a finish in Bagno di Romagna would likely be a descent finish after climbing the Passo dei Mandrioli, hopefully preceded by Monte Camaldoli. the two climbs are back-to-back and both descents would be quite cool.

Also the Pistoia stage has awesome potential. Pretty likely they would climb the Sammomme' like in 2005... and if it was me they would also climb the Acquerino before it.

EDIT: And the finish in Peschici can also be extremely good. Lots of medium mountain potential there (but only in the finale)

 

[staubsauger]

Was that South Tyrol stage truly rumored anytime after the false claims about a stage host in Lienz last fall and the latest spring rumors around a possible Giro Euregio with sponsorship investment of both South Tyrol and Tyrol!?

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

Was that South Tyrol stage truly rumored anytime after the false claims about a stage host in Lienz last fall and the latest spring rumors around a possible Giro Euregio with sponsorship investment of both South Tyrol and Tyrol!?

No, as far as I know. Never heard anything more.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Was that South Tyrol stage truly rumored anytime after the false claims about a stage host in Lienz last fall and the latest spring rumors around a possible Giro Euregio with sponsorship investment of both South Tyrol and Tyrol!?

No, as far as I know. Never heard anything more.

I was 100% sure someone wrote something about south tyrol rumors into this thread but I just looked through the pages and it seems like I only imagined that

 

[Eshnar]

Still no news about the start location. Weird. It probably means both Sicily and Sardinia can't find the money for hosting it and they need more time.

There aren't many new rumours at all. Piancavallo is in at 99% (Friuli has already allocated the resources to resurface that road, so the Giro is definitely coming) but there are now rumours that the stage could actually finish in Maniago, after the descent and some hilly terrain. Besides being a much better stage, somehow I think this fits better with the 2015 scheme I have in mind. That Giro had a ITT and a MTF as penultimate weekend, and then 3 MTFs and a descent finish in the last week. This stage would be the counterpart of Verbania, and the other 3 MTFs would be Stelvio, Aprica and Pordoi (in random order). It makes sense imho.

1 -- 3 Sardinia or Sicily
4 ???
5 ???
6 ??? - Alberobello [flat] ***
7 Molfetta - Peschici [hilly] ***
8 ???
9 ??? - Terminillo [MTF] ****
rest
10 ??? - Gualdo Tadino [flat?] **
11 Perugia - Bagno di Romagna [hilly/mountain] ***
12 Forli' - Pistoia [hilly] ***
13 ??? - somewhere in Po Valley [flat]
14 Franciacorta [ITT] ****
15 ??? - Presolana [MTF] ***
rest
16 Bergamo - Stelvio [MTF] ****
17 Ponte di Legno? - Aprica [MTF] ***
18 ??? - Treviso? [flat] **
19 ??? - Piancavallo OR Maniago [MTF or Mountain] ****
20 Pordenone? - Pordoi [MTF] ****
21 ??? [flat]

 

[Red Rick]

How far would Maniago be after the descent. I assume they'll climb the hard side?

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

How far would Maniago be after the descent. I assume they'll climb the hard side?

Maniago would be 30-40 km after the top of Piancavallo. Yes, hard side. 15 km of descent and then 15-25 km of a hilly valley depending on the actual route they choose.

 

[Nirvana]

If stage 13 starts somewhere near Pistoia they could make a good medium mountain stage between Tuscany and Emilia instead a flat stage.

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

If stage 13 starts somewhere near Pistoia they could make a good medium mountain stage between Tuscany and Emilia instead a flat stage.

yes but they'll be coming from two hilly stages in a row. Don't think they'd go for a third.

 

[May0maniac]

I'd rather have Terminillo on stage 8 and a classic hilly Tirreno-Adriatico stage on stage 9 before the rest day, but you can't have everything.
Let's just hope that the long ITT looks more like the 2013 or the 2015 ITT and not like the one that we had this year or in 2014.

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

I'd rather have Terminillo on stage 8 and a classic hilly Tirreno-Adriatico stage on stage 9 before the rest day, but you can't have everything.
Let's just hope that the long ITT looks more like the 2013 or the 2015 ITT and not like the one that we had this year or in 2014.

same here ofc.