Giro d'Italia Stage 16, Limone sul Garda - Falzes/Pfalzen, 174km, 22/05/2012

[wirral]

Rodriguez imo needs some others to have a go and follow them. On his own 2k + on the flat is risky and he doesn't want to tire himself out before 17

Absolutely, and there'll be no shortage of wannabes shooting off at all points before and on the climb. It's that kind of stage. And of course Moreno will do as much as he can for Purito.

 

[Pippo_San]

IIRC Cav said this could've been a stage for him...

 

[hfer07]

This is a tricky stage- nothing is set on stone for J-Rod to win it, even if Katusha commit to chase the breakaways & bring him to the foot of the climb -there is GATO,CUNEGO,GASPA & TIRA,GADRET-even POZZO can make things difficult for the Catalan AFTER THE CLIMB.

If a breakaway is ever going to succeed- I'd say the escapades are surely from Movistar(AMADOR,INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA,VENTOSO)Androni(RUBIANO, SELLA, SERPA) Eskaltel(TXURRUKA,IZAGUIRRE)

 

[ElChingon]

Rodriguez needs all the time he can get now in order to be over the Schleck line before the final TT.

 

[Freddo]

As form goes J-Rod will have to get the win, although will he want to spend excessive energy for the stage win or stay in the bunch and keep some energy for the climbs and TT coming up....

 

[karlboss]

2.3km false flat just seems too long and flat for me to rate Rodriguez by enough to go for the win here, Katusha could well and truly burn themselves out in controlling the breakaway and trying to setup the finish. Just not worth it with the upcoming stages. Maybe if it's a weak breakaway, but I think with this being the last chance for breakaway specialists I think the break will take it, and by 10 minutes or so.

Large breakaway group and Slagter to win solo from it.

 

[Leonardus]

2.3km false flat just seems too long and flat for me to rate Rodriguez by enough to go for the win here, Katusha could well and truly burn themselves out in controlling the breakaway and trying to setup the finish. Just not worth it with the upcoming stages. Maybe if it's a weak breakaway, but I think with this being the last chance for breakaway specialists I think the break will take it, and by 10 minutes or so.

Large breakaway group and Slagter to win solo from it.

Had the same thoughts about today, not much to gain for the gc and tomorrow will be very hard so nobody wants to chase. Will be hard today to get in the breakway or a very large group will go.

 

[Michele Scarred Pony]

Bakelants will take this.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

2.3km false flat just seems too long and flat for me to rate Rodriguez by enough to go for the win here, Katusha could well and truly burn themselves out in controlling the breakaway and trying to setup the finish. Just not worth it with the upcoming stages. Maybe if it's a weak breakaway, but I think with this being the last chance for breakaway specialists I think the break will take it, and by 10 minutes or so.

Large breakaway group and Slagter to win solo from it.

If 2.3km are too long for Rodriguez on the flat then write him off for the worlds as well because there it's the same...

 

[hrotha]

If 2.3km are too long for Rodriguez on the flat then write him off for the worlds as well because there it's the same...

But the WC is tougher overall, the selection will be greater. Here I doubt he could beat a Gatto, but in the Worlds Gatto would have been dropped (theoretically) in the previous lap.

 

[Michele Scarred Pony]

If Gilbert has any kind of form, Purito has no chance whatsoever there.

 

[Frosty]

Going back to Geraint Thomas's chances to get in a break today. He has two big appointments with the pain doctor on Thursday (for Cavendish) and also on Sunday, when he might fancy his chances of a good place in the time trial. In the mountain stages Sky will want some people to try and stay with the Colombians for as long as possible and Thomas seems to have been doing this so far to some degree. If the attacking goes on early in the mountains though then he might not be able to keep up for that long but it could all make for a busy schedule and Sky may generally decide that their energy is better used in other places than a break today. Besides, Sky will have an interest today in making sure Henao and Uran are well placed for the finale.

 

[theyoungest]

But the WC is tougher overall, the selection will be greater. Here I doubt he could beat a Gatto, but in the Worlds Gatto would have been dropped (theoretically) in the previous lap.

Meh, the Worlds course is not that hard. Only if there's bad weather a small group will arrive for the last time up the Cauberg.

It's easier than the Amstel Gold course, that's for sure. And we saw what happened there this year.

 

[Froome19]

Bakelants will take this.

Dont know about him, he was really impressive last year in the Giro but this year he has already got in some breaks, especially the casar/bak break I think it was and he hasnt really featured so I am not convinved as to hi form, he is a great talent and looked strong early season but now he doesnt seem to be on the same level as last year..
(btw see you are already here)

Meh, the Worlds course is not that hard. Only if there's bad weather a small group will arrive for the last time up the Cauberg.

It's easier than the Amstel Gold course, that's for sure. And we saw what happened there this year.

If a couple of really strong teams ride the course hard I can see it breaking up. Namely the Belgians for Gilbert, Italians for whomever (cunego/ Pozzatto or Ballan etc) and spanish for Contador/ Rodriguez, what I think may end up happening is that Gilbert will have shown himself to be in really good form in the previous races and the other teams will leave all the work to Belgium as they did to GB last year, that would make for a more boring version.

 

[karlboss]

If 2.3km are too long for Rodriguez on the flat then write him off for the worlds as well because there it's the same...

I don't think this course is particularly selective, struggling to see past Sagan at the moment, Rodriguez only gets a look in if he gets in a break with Nibali, Evans, Basso and noone chases

 

[dlwssonic]

Balalalallalalalalalan!!

 

[taiwan]

If Gilbert has any kind of form, Purito has no chance whatsoever there.

...I think Sagan is being criminally overlooked here. mortal lock...

 

[dlwssonic]

It will be pretty boring if its a breakaway stage. looks like Jrod will take it though.

 

[Gloin22]

Balalalallalalalalalan!!

I agree, perfect day for him to go to the break and get a win.

 

[greenedge]

If a couple of really strong teams ride the course hard I can see it breaking up. Namely the Belgians for Gilbert, Italians for whomever (cunego/ Pozzatto or Ballan etc) and spanish for Contador/ Rodriguez, what I think may end up happening is that Gilbert will have shown himself to be in really good form in the previous races and the other teams will leave all the work to Belgium as they did to GB last year, that would make for a more boring version.

You honestly don't consider the possible Australian team strong after 2009/ 2010/ 2011.
Gold, Bronze, silver.

We even left out McEwan in 2010 and Renshaw last year.

I would think Gerrans and Evans would be as good a combo as the Italians ( probably Nibali/ Cunego ) and if Boonen stays with the bunch i am sure Goss could.

Belgium also has Vanendert, GVA and Boonen.

 

[Froome19]

You honestly don't consider the possible Australian team strong after 2009/ 2010/ 2011.
Gold, Bronze, silver.

We even left out McEwan in 2010 and Renshaw last year.

I would think Gerrans and Evans would be as good a combo as the Italians ( probably Nibali/ Cunego ) and if Boonen stays with the bunch i am sure Goss could.

Belgium also has Vanendert, GVA and Boonen.

Yes I know, but I was stating the teams who would possibly work a lot and try and break the peloton up.
So I stated the teams with the overwhelming favorites who it will be in their interest to break it up as much as possible.
Of course the Australians have the abiilty to break up the bunch possibly but you have to consider whether it would be in their interest to do it. As things are panning out they have as much you mentioned a couple of possible leaders and unlike the Belgian team who will certainly unite behind one leader, the Australians will probably enter the race with multiple leaders and a different game plan depending on how the race pans out. So I dont think it would be in their interest to jeopardise Goss's or Haussler or whomever by breaking up as they have the card of waiting for the sprint, which though a lot of other teams have that card, Spain have Rojas and Ventoso, Italy have Gatto and Pozzato and possibly Visconti, Belgium have Boonen and GVA, France has Feillu etc etc. yet these teams have standout puncheurs who in most cases they will be working for from the off, not to say that Gerrans and Evans are poor, but if I was the Australian manager I wouldnt rely on Gerrans and though Evans is good uphill this is a bit too easy for him and he may not even race.

But of course Australia are one of the strongest teams yet due to the terrain they lack a standout favorite.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Snipped from the CN live ticker:

"I think that an advantage of one minute and a half on Basso and Scarponi before the time trial should be enough, but I'll need a bit more on Hesjedal - about two minutes," Rodriguez said. He currently has 30 seconds on the Canadian.

So whether he needs the time or not, Rodriguez will be in the mindset to attack. (Is he ever not?)

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

Dont know about him, he was really impressive last year in the Giro but this year he has already got in some breaks, especially the casar/bak break I think it was and he hasnt really featured so I am not convinved as to hi form, he is a great talent and looked strong early season but now he doesnt seem to be on the same level as last year..
(btw see you are already here)

Bakelants looked like one of the strongest in that break... until he crashed on a descent.

 

[taiwan]

looks like you guys were right about it being abreakaway day.

 

[Froome19]

looks like you guys were right about it being abreakaway day.

Well it is still together and the racing is fast as was expected, yet the attacks should come again in the next 10km