How likely is Tadej Pogačar to win both the Giro and the Tour this season?

[Netserk]

Well, we can do like in Engineering when estimating future numbers. More than 90% is proved or a yes and more than 50% and less than 90% is maybe and less than 50% is a No. Or we can do like they do in civil case and be as easy as saying than more than 50% is a yes and less than 50% is a No. In a criminal case I think is extreme (beyond a reasonable doubt) and we don't want to go that route.

It's an implicit betting market with market clearing odds.

 

[DoYouEvenRideBruh]

I have absolutely no idea which option to pick, but I like the topological accuracy of the intervals

 

[saunaking]

40ish percent
And more likely to win both than any single rider you can name today to win just the Tour

 

[scribers]

Bruyneel says pogi should dump the giro and focus on the tour. Says he understands it’s an unpopular opinion

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I agree that people underestimate the power of multiplicating effect of probability over multiple events.
But your probabilities also seem low. I had 90% and 50% in my post, which probably also is off (first too high since over three weeks always crashes and illness can happen) but out of interest I looked at bookies odds (Bet365). They give him: 81.97% for the Giro, 69.44% for the Tour, giving 56.9%. So actually higher than my 45% estimate even.

Assuming you can just use the bookies' odds to find out the percentages (which you can't, really*), the bookies give him a 69.44% chance of winning the Tour without Vingegaard, hence the real number is much lower.

I'd say that 80% to win the Giro is quite accurate (in my opinion). The Tour is the hard one, but my estimate would be roughly 40%. 32% to win the double.

* You can't really just find out the chance of a rider winning by using the bookies odds. For instance, one bookie has Pogacar at odds 1.60 (that would equal 62,5% chance of winning) and Vingegaard at odds 2.20 (45,5% chance of winning) - combined that's 108% chance of winning.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Voted 70-80%. He wins the Giro if he doesn't crash hard, and I think he's just on another level compared to Roglic and Remco even with a Giro in his legs. Remember, he has not ridden too many races leading up to the Giro and chances are he will win that race more easily than any other GT in modern history. I also subscribe to the notion that he's even stronger right now.

So in short, I think Giro is around 90% and while I can see Remco, Roglic or Jonas win straight up in France, I believe Pogi is still a relatively big favorite. Had Jonas been healthy, this is obviously completely diff

"Relatively big favorite" to win the Tour equals 80% chance of winning even when taking crashes into consideration?

 

[Gigs_98]

Well, if we want to be accurate, the right calculation to compute his chance of winning the double isn't really to just multiply his chance of winning each one. That would imply the two events are independent of each other which they very clearly aren't.

If Pogacar cannot even win the Giro we would probably give him a lower chance to win the Tour, which shouldn't be a factor in our calculation, but has to be a factor in the calculation of how likely he is to win the Tour. Now I don't think this is making a big difference in the poll because I think most of us are actually intuitively thinking of his chances to win the Tour under the condition of him winning the Giro. And because we are all giving him like a 90% chance to win the Giro it's a small difference anyway. But if you want to compute something by using odds from bookies you should take this into account.

 

[Netserk]

If Pogacar cannot even win the Giro we would probably give him a lower chance to win the Tour

I think most scenarios where he doesn’t win the Giro has him pull out (with a minor injury) in order to be ready for the Tour.

 

[Barkintheeye]

Well, if we want to be accurate, the right calculation to compute his chance of winning the double isn't really to just multiply his chance of winning each one. That would imply the two events are independent of each other which they very clearly aren't.

If Pogacar cannot even win the Giro we would probably give him a lower chance to win the Tour, which shouldn't be a factor in our calculation, but has to be a factor in the calculation of how likely he is to win the Tour. Now I don't think this is making a big difference in the poll because I think most of us are actually intuitively thinking of his chances to win the Tour under the condition of him winning the Giro. And because we are all giving him like a 90% chance to win the Giro it's a small difference anyway. But if you want to compute something by using odds from bookies you should take this into account.

Exactly that, but most of us already knew the Kolmogorov definition of conditional probabilities

 

[DoYouEvenRideBruh]

Well, if we want to be accurate, the right calculation to compute his chance of winning the double isn't really to just multiply his chance of winning each one. That would imply the two events are independent of each other which they very clearly aren't.

If Pogacar cannot even win the Giro we would probably give him a lower chance to win the Tour, which shouldn't be a factor in our calculation, but has to be a factor in the calculation of how likely he is to win the Tour. Now I don't think this is making a big difference in the poll because I think most of us are actually intuitively thinking of his chances to win the Tour under the condition of him winning the Giro. And because we are all giving him like a 90% chance to win the Giro it's a small difference anyway. But if you want to compute something by using odds from bookies you should take this into account.

In other words, P(Giro and Tour) = P(Giro)*P(Tour, given the Giro). But as you say people are mostly taking into account the Giro in the legs before assigning a probability to the Tour's victory.

Personally I think the Giro victory is extremely likely (>90%) as he is the overwhelming favourite, coupled to the fact that the guy never seems to get ill or crash out.

If Vingo isn't at the Tour or is present but at a fraction of his full power, I'd give Pog a 60% chance to also win the Tour. Better than a coin toss, as I think he'd be the strongest in the race by some margin, but with a Giro in the legs (even one taken as easy as possible) a good Roglic or Remco shouldn't be that far behind.

 

[Gigs_98]

I think most scenarios where he doesn’t win the Giro has him pull out (with a minor injury) in order to be ready for the Tour.

Yeah I thought about that too but I actually think we are overrating the likelihood of that scenario. Both Contador and Froome had very clear opportunities where they could have taken that route in 2015 and 2018 respectively and both didn't. I think if Pogacar abandons the Giro it will be because he has to abandon.

 

[Netserk]

Yeah I thought about that too but I actually think we are overrating the likelihood of that scenario. Both Contador and Froome had very clear opportunities where they could have taken that route in 2015 and 2018 respectively and both didn't. I think if Pogacar abandons the Giro it will be because he has to abandon.

If Contador abandoned in the first week of the 2015 Giro, he still wouldn't be a favourite for the Tour, whereas he was still the favourite to win the Giro. If Pogi abandons at a similar point with a similar injury, he will be the overwhelming favourite for the Tour.

Froome was still not cleared from his positive at that point, so if he abandoned, it wasn't certain that he would ride the Tour.

 

[topcat]

What about the probability of Pog winning neither?

A = Giro win, P(A)=0.7
B = Tour win, P(B)=0.5
P(A and B) = P(B|A)P(A) = 0.55(0.7) = 0.385 (Pog thread insufferable)
P(wins neither) = 0.185 (quiet looms)

 

[Potomac]

What about the probability of Pog winning neither?

A = Giro win, P(A)=0.7
B = Tour win, P(B)=0.5
P(A and B) = P(B|A)P(A) = 0.55(0.7) = 0.385 (Pog thread insufferable)
P(wins neither) = 0.185 (quiet looms)

So with all the people whining how this is the WORST SEASON EVER will Pog winning neither Giro or Tour make the season better or worse?

 

[Peyroteo94]

So with all the people whining how this is the WORST SEASON EVER will Pog winning neither Giro or Tour make the season better or worse?

Worse. I can't concede a world where Pog doesn't win the Giro at least. Can you imagine Caruso/Aresman, etc winning the Giro? How painful would be having of these riders winning my favourite race in the world...

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Well, if we want to be accurate, the right calculation to compute his chance of winning the double isn't really to just multiply his chance of winning each one. That would imply the two events are independent of each other which they very clearly aren't.

If Pogacar cannot even win the Giro we would probably give him a lower chance to win the Tour, which shouldn't be a factor in our calculation, but has to be a factor in the calculation of how likely he is to win the Tour. Now I don't think this is making a big difference in the poll because I think most of us are actually intuitively thinking of his chances to win the Tour under the condition of him winning the Giro. And because we are all giving him like a 90% chance to win the Giro it's a small difference anyway. But if you want to compute something by using odds from bookies you should take this into account.

Obviously it's conditional probability P(winning the Tour | he's won the Giro) so the scenario when he loses the Giro doesn't matter. That's what most people assume here I guess (how likely he's to win the Tour with the successful Giro in his legs). The probability of him winning the Tour without the whole Giro in his legs (i.e. early withdrawal) could actually be larger if he can recover from the cause quickly. Giro in the legs in an important assumption, which most people here make.

 

[topcat]

So with all the people whining how this is the WORST SEASON EVER will Pog winning neither Giro or Tour make the season better or worse?

It depends on how much you like whining.

 

[Nick2413]

I’ve been tracking my sneezes the last few days and I can conclude that over 90% of this forum thinks there’s a bigger chance Pogacar wins the double than there is I sneeze today. I’ll report back with the verdict tomorrow.

 

[Extinction]

Unless he crashes or gets sick, it's pretty hard to imagine him not winning the Giro. The Tour also looks promissing, given the state of the battered and (literally) broken competition at the moment. So unless Tadej has a dive in form in July and the competition proves much tougher than anticipated, the Tour is also his to lose me thinks.

 

[Elos Anjos]

I can't even fathom why this thread appeared without some sort of disclaimer.

Of course we cycling fans are aware that making predictions in this sport is pointless, but we nonetheless make them anyway based on our expectations.

This thread could be opened in April 3rd and the next day be turned upside down. Just a reminder that there are things that one cannot control. Assigning probabilities without knowing all the factors at play is somewhat astrology: a way of seemingly controling events with a "narrative".

View: https://youtu.be/doLUFnRoelw?si=01OMQmKBgqgzuk2c

 

[Extinction]

I can't even fathom why this thread appeared without some sort of disclaimer.

Of course we cycling fans are aware that making predictions in this sport is pointless, but we nonetheless make them anyway based on our expectations.

This thread could be opened in April 3rd and the next day be turned upside down. Just a reminder that there are things that one cannot control. Assigning probabilities without knowing all the factors at play is somewhat astrology: a way of seemingly controling events with a "narrative".

View: https://youtu.be/doLUFnRoelw?si=01OMQmKBgqgzuk2c

You go on the information available, and the it gets updated. It's all in the stars in other words. Call It destiny or chance the outcome is unapeallable.

 

[saunaking]

Unless he crashes or gets sick, it's pretty hard to imagine him not winning the Giro. The Tour also looks promissing, given the state of the battered and (literally) broken competition at the moment. So unless Tadej has a dive in form in July and the competition proves much tougher than anticipated, the Tour is also his to lose me thinks.

Its going to be almost as bad as Catalunya

 

[zekance]

Well, if we want to be accurate, the right calculation to compute his chance of winning the double isn't really to just multiply his chance of winning each one. That would imply the two events are independent of each other which they very clearly aren't.

If Pogacar cannot even win the Giro we would probably give him a lower chance to win the Tour, which shouldn't be a factor in our calculation, but has to be a factor in the calculation of how likely he is to win the Tour. Now I don't think this is making a big difference in the poll because I think most of us are actually intuitively thinking of his chances to win the Tour under the condition of him winning the Giro. And because we are all giving him like a 90% chance to win the Giro it's a small difference anyway. But if you want to compute something by using odds from bookies you should take this into account.

I would think the bookies are smart enough to already take that into account.

 

[Red Rick]

I would think the bookies are smart enough to already take that into account.

Bookies literally just react to betting behavior

 

[Valv.Piti]

Bookies literally just react to betting behavior

Where do the odds start though, have to start at something right