Itzulia Basque Country 2021, Spain, April 5 - April 10

[Salvarani]

It is strange that Vingegaard didnt continue to pace the group in the descent. Instead they slowed down over the top, actually opening up for those attacks to happen and let a group of riders get away.

They have to be pretty confident that the racing that probably will take place on the last stage will be enough to drop most of the others and we get the duel between the two slovenians. Which is what everyone thought this race was gonna be.

I feel like if they look too much at each other or ride too defensively though, it might open up for others again to gain time on the last stage. If it is all out action from start to finish, anything could happen.

I am also very impressed with Valverde. He looks very strong. I think he saving up for a big effort on Saturday. As I think Pog and Roglic was most likely doing too.

It will be interesting to see what happens. A lot of riders with a chance here.

 

[Bolder]

It was a disaster! This was worse than anything Movistar ever did

Mistake no.1, Roglic - Not following his teammate who chased McNulty
Mistake no.2, DS and Roglic - Not putting Tolhoek right away on the front to work.
Mistake no.3, DS - Not telling Vingegaard to drop back.
And on top of everything Vignegaard lost that sprint, and even bonus seconds to McNulty.

I totally agree with No. 3; although thinking about it, TJV might not be in a bad position for Saturday. It's not really a stage you can control, I think, without a really strong team. So why not force UAE to at least try?

2 other things: I just realized Hirschi was in the race, since I've only been able to watch the very end of each stage; and I finally figured out who the "les deux Kanaks" that the French announcers have been referring to for years: for some reason, Deceuninck is prounounced more like "dookanak" in French -- so today when Mas and Knox were at the end of the chase group, I finally put 2 + 2 together: They were saying "les Deceuninck" to refer to the riders. (French uses singular proper noun for groups, like "Les Simpson") -- so a big Doh! for me, who's lived in France for 9 years...

 

[Libertine Seguros]

It was a disaster! This was worse than anything Movistar ever did

The thing with Movistar is that it's actually fairly seldom that their tactics are outright stupid. You can usually tell precisely what they're trying to do, and with the exception of defending their lead in the Teams Classification it's not usually dumb - it's just that they look like fools when their leaders blow up and waste that work or they pull riders back for leaders that then fail. You can see what they were trying but they failed at it (and more often than not they also manage to fail to see that it would fail until the chance to re-appraise has long since gone, so they wind up expending a lot of energy to achieve absolutely nothing.

With Rabo (for 'tis they), they frequently go for tactics that mean you aren't entirely sure what the end goal was. Like Omloop about ten years ago when they had the fastest rider in the break and the most riders in the break, so they started pulling the 1-2 trick before setting themselves to work on the front of the péloton to chase their own break. And that's before we get into the way they've operated a standing principle of minimising gains today to maximise losses tomorrow with Roglič, and have turned Sepp Kuss into a mountain domestique that can drop major contenders at will yet spends as much time on the front as Louis Meintjes. That's the kind of tactics we're used to from them.

 

[Lequack]

You know that Wout and Dumoulin were out there somewhere watching today's stage

 

[Red Rick]

I like how Kuss has mythological climbing levels just because it validates more criticism on the team.

 

[Escarabajo]

There is no mistake is McNulty is dropped on Saturday. Unless they make another mistake on Saturday!

 

[jmdirt]

Cannot believe Jumbo did this from a situation that was completely under control.

Clearly it wasn't under control.

 

[Blanco]

There is no mistake is McNulty is dropped on Saturday. Unless they make another mistake on Saturday!

Yep, he could be in trouble right from the gun, and especially on Krabelin. There's too much climbing for him in that stage. I really doubt that he will win this race.

 

[HelloDolly]

I am not sure McNulty si going to be as bad as so many on here are suggesting ...looked good climbing with Landa today

Also this while idea of Roglic having to deal with McNulty and then Pog as if they were coming at him separately

UAE have the strongest team at this race with a raft of climbers and they have imo the strongest climber

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Erlaitz profile:

"Krabelin" profile:

Realistically they're not that far apart characteristic-wise, in terms of length and savagery of the steep part, though Arrate/Krabelin is slightly tougher with 2km at pushing 13% whereas it's about 11,5% at the hardest part for Erlaitz. The thing for McNulty will be how he deals with those multiple ramps up to the 20% mark - Erlaitz is very steep but it doesn't waver too much during its steepest ramps so is better for tempo climbing than Arrate/Krabelin, which is very inconsistent so managing efforts and going up and down gears and tempos will be more crucial there. Plus of course McNulty will be the one defending the lead there which changes things from a psychological perspective too.

 

[Red Rick]

Erlaitz profile:

"Krabelin" profile:

Realistically they're not that far apart characteristic-wise, in terms of length and savagery of the steep part, though Arrate/Krabelin is slightly tougher with 2km at pushing 13% whereas it's about 11,5% at the hardest part for Erlaitz. The thing for McNulty will be how he deals with those multiple ramps up to the 20% mark - Erlaitz is very steep but it doesn't waver too much during its steepest ramps so is better for tempo climbing than Arrate/Krabelin, which is very inconsistent so managing efforts and going up and down gears and tempos will be more crucial there. Plus of course McNulty will be the one defending the lead there which changes things from a psychological perspective too.

I don't think the problem is in dropping McNulty on that climb, it's what the hell they're gonna do after. Maybe Vingegaard can drop McNulty but I doubt that too.

I strongly doubt Roglic will make a move on Krabelin, and think Pogacar attacking there is actually more likely. I think Roglic is pretty confident he can take McNulty on Arrate alone.

Now, will Roglic go for the sprint tomorrow?

 

[Wvv]

Tomorrow, every cycling fan needs to take of their hat. Fan or not.

April 9th 2003: stage 3 in Pais Vasco, first pro victory for ... Alejandro Valverde.

18 years later, and still a big contender. Respect!

(Funny that it's Rebellin who came in second that day.)

 

[Bolder]

Erlaitz profile:

"Krabelin" profile:

Realistically they're not that far apart characteristic-wise, in terms of length and savagery of the steep part, though Arrate/Krabelin is slightly tougher with 2km at pushing 13% whereas it's about 11,5% at the hardest part for Erlaitz. The thing for McNulty will be how he deals with those multiple ramps up to the 20% mark - Erlaitz is very steep but it doesn't waver too much during its steepest ramps so is better for tempo climbing than Arrate/Krabelin, which is very inconsistent so managing efforts and going up and down gears and tempos will be more crucial there. Plus of course McNulty will be the one defending the lead there which changes things from a psychological perspective too.

2 km at 13% with a couple of 20% kicks at the end is brutal. I’d be newsboying that like Wout in de Ronde...

 

[Libertine Seguros]

2 km at 13% with a couple of 20% kicks at the end is brutal. I’d be newsboying that like Wout in de Ronde...

Yea, but that's the climb labelled as Krabelin.

The final climb is the more traditional side of Arrate.

 

[sir fly]

Despite being superior to everyone but Pogačar, I think Roglič would be happier with a single-digit deficit.
Might make himself exposed to a counterattack making up the deficit.

 

[johnymax]

I don't think the problem is in dropping McNulty on that climb, it's what the hell they're gonna do after. Maybe Vingegaard can drop McNulty but I doubt that too.

I strongly doubt Roglic will make a move on Krabelin, and think Pogacar attacking there is actually more likely. I think Roglic is pretty confident he can take McNulty on Arrate alone.

Now, will Roglic go for the sprint tomorrow?

I've read all the tactical variations for the final stage from all the posters in this thread, yet you are the first who have mentioned Vingegaard as a player in the GC battle, but even you doubt he can drop McNulty. Do you all think he'll be a complete non-factor? I think there is a reason today was the first stage he has done work for Roglic. I think TJV's been saving him and keeping him up high in GC for a reason, to be tactically more flexible in the final stage. Maybe I'm giving them too much credit, but let's see how will the last stage play out.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

So I figured, like I did way back when with the various routes around Sierra Nevada, I'd fire up MS Paint and draw a metro map for the routes of Arrate/Usartza/Ixua to explain its different sides.

Route 1a - traditional climb to Ixua from Eibar via the main road. In most years the route would climb this, then return from Etxebarria (the town at the other end, the junction between the roads is actually slightly before Markina-Xemein, although I have marked the image above as though Markina is the destination as that's the one signposted on all the road signs) via Urkaregi, then climb the same side almost to Ixua before heading up to Usartza and eventually Arrate:

Route 1b - traditional climb to Usartza and Arrate from Eibar via the main road:

Route 2 - the 'newer' route to Arrate from Azitain, a village in the valley between Eibar and Elgoibar that has been swallowed by the former. This was introduced when it was climbed in the 2016 Eibar-Eibar ITT, which went up this side and descended through the traditional side (Route 1b). This is the side known as Krabelin on the 2021 race route.

Route 3a - a more recent route, never done in full to Usartza, climbing on hormigón from Eibar but to the northeast of the normal route through the industrial estate at Matxaria. Has the steepest ramps of all sides, but keeps all the false flat after joining the main road not long after the junction between the road to Ixua and the road to Usartza.

Route 3b - the Matxaria route, but when reaching the main road, turning left to descend towards Eibar once more and then taking the right to Ixua. The GPM is placed weirdly here, but this is the route as seen in the 2019 Vuelta al País Vasco as the antepenultimate climb of the stage, where Luís León Sánchez attacked and got a push from his brother, SD Eibar captain Pedro León.

Route 4 - the Markina/Etxebarria side of Ixua, only seen a few times in the race recently, notably in 2014 and 2016 when Markina hosted the race, and it was the penultimate climb of a loop which took the easier side of Ixua and then Urkaregi/San Mikel/Aiastia as the final climb, so that there wasn't TOO much repetition.

Route 5 - Urkaregi/San Mikel/Aiastia. This is a fairly easy climb which in the traditional route of the Arrate stage was the penultimate climb of the day, though this discouraged earlier attacking so has been replaced by the Trabakua type route they use now (I beg for Muniozguren). It was used from the Elgoibar side as the last climb of the day in those 2014 and 2016 stages to Markina.

The stage we are seeing on Saturday will climb up the route through Azitain, through Arrate to Usartza (this is the Krabelin climb), then heading along the ridge (the lines inside the square) and turning toward Ixua. After its loop away from the map and returning to Eibar they will climb the left-hand ascent toward Ixua, then turn right and retrace their steps from earlier until they reach Arrate.

 

[Red Rick]

I've read all the tactical variations for the final stage from all the posters in this thread, yet you are the first who have mentioned Vingegaard as a player in the GC battle, but even you doubt he can drop McNulty. Do you all think he'll be a complete non-factor? I think there is a reason today was the first stage he has done work for Roglic. I think TJV's been saving him and keeping him up high in GC for a reason, to be tactically more flexible in the final stage. Maybe I'm giving them too much credit, but let's see how will the last stage play out.

Arrate stages have a lot of variation, if it's a full peloton at the foot gaps tend to be really small.

If the GC group hits Arrate together, I think Pogacar should ride for McNulty? I'm not entirely sure because of bonifications too. No way Pogacar puts 20s into Roglic on Arrate even if Roglic attacks at like 6km to go and just drills it.

 

[johnymax]

The thing with Movistar is that it's actually fairly seldom that their tactics are outright stupid. You can usually tell precisely what they're trying to do, and with the exception of defending their lead in the Teams Classification it's not usually dumb - it's just that they look like fools when their leaders blow up and waste that work or they pull riders back for leaders that then fail. You can see what they were trying but they failed at it (and more often than not they also manage to fail to see that it would fail until the chance to re-appraise has long since gone, so they wind up expending a lot of energy to achieve absolutely nothing.

With Rabo (for 'tis they), they frequently go for tactics that mean you aren't entirely sure what the end goal was. Like Omloop about ten years ago when they had the fastest rider in the break and the most riders in the break, so they started pulling the 1-2 trick before setting themselves to work on the front of the péloton to chase their own break. And that's before we get into the way they've operated a standing principle of minimising gains today to maximise losses tomorrow with Roglič, and have turned Sepp Kuss into a mountain domestique that can drop major contenders at will yet spends as much time on the front as Louis Meintjes. That's the kind of tactics we're used to from them.

I love this forum. We are watching Itzulia 2021 and you start talking about and giving examples of how Omloop ten years ago unfolded Vintage LS right here. An encyclopedia of cycling.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Congratulations to Jon Izaguirre Insausti for winning stage 4.

What an exciting stage this turned out to be. As for some analysis.

Valverde, some great descending abilities demonstrated today. Or as Kirby described, with a knife in his mouth, abandoning the burning ship ...

Carapaz, Kirby made it sound like half of his arm was missing, was worried for a couple of seconds. Then i realized Kirby is likely just over reacting.

JV:

The team, youngsters, surprised today and we got a confirmation the team was managing them brilliantly in stage 2 and 3. Foss and after Vingegaard protecting Roglič through the whole Erlaitz climb. Tolhoek managing to join in on the descend. This was an A class team support today. Sending Vingegaard to win the stage didn't result in a stage win. The secondary objective, prevent Pogačar from gaining seconds, now that was achieved. From Roglič point of view this was more or less the best case scenario today for him. In such strong peloton he had close to 0 chance of gaining seconds today.

UAE:

Their main objective today likely was for Pogačar to gain seconds on Roglič, secondary objective for McNulty to win the stage. None of that happened. McNulty did got the leaders jersey but in my opinion this was not their objective today.

Tactics:

JV was not forced in using such tactics, they did it deliberately. Now some of you are saying how stupid of them, but in my opinion this could end up being a master class tactical decision to pay off in stage 6. They lost nothing against Pogačar today, created a leadership issue in UAE, don't have to defend anything in the next 2 days, UAE will be under direct attack, they can join other teams doing the attacking, whenever they feel appropriate ...

I don't know how good McNulty currently climbs, stacked against a group of an elite climbers.

Stage 6 will give the answers.

 

[Lequack]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6L9MXywRCZg

 

[topcat]

Sure, it's no biggie by TJV. Welcome to the sh*t show. Team ***. Fire everyone.

 

[Koronin]

Tomorrow, every cycling fan needs to take of their hat. Fan or not.

April 9th 2003: stage 3 in Pais Vasco, first pro victory for ... Alejandro Valverde.

18 years later, and still a big contender. Respect!

(Funny that it's Rebellin who came in second that day.)

Wonder if the race organizers have planned anything in the podium ceremonies. Not many riders race that long, let alone are contenders for that long.

 

[Tinnekeisabella]

Any chance of Tadej and Brandon going for the attack together? Pretty far from the finish but when roglic has lost most of his men already?

 

[tobydawq]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6L9MXywRCZg

Hilarious stuff. Though, for good measure, it was Tolhoek, not Foss, who was doing stretches and not driving the Roglic group on the run-in.

Nice that he wants the GCN announcers fired, I assume it was Kirby who commented today. A pity Horner does not have the final say there. And he would also fire the Jumbo director unless it was him who had been responsible of getting Roglic to the team, then he could stay on as a scout only