Jonas Vingegaard Rasmussen, the new alpha mutant

[Rackham]

If I was team manager & I had a rider who naturally did those power numbers (whatever they were), I'd be the most buoyant, ecstatic & downright deliriously pumped guy in the entire cycling universe. I mean sh*t, right? We'd be looking at something unique in the annals of the sport & a very rare find. Domination guaranteed. Money guaranteed. Glory guaranteed. Oorah mothereffers!

But, that's not what we see from Jumbo. We see damage control from the team & we see pro-Jumbo commentators saying stuff like "the gap is because Pog hurt his wrist & had bad prep!" or arguing sematics about the actual numbers involved (or claiming Jonas gained time via cornering & bike skills, not raw power, i.e. anything to downplay the difference versus Pog). All whilst ignoring the even bigger gap versus everyone else, of course. In Plugge's case, I definitely wouldn't be sh*tting all over FDJ with bizarre comments about alcohol consumption being the root cause of their suckiness (which seemed like a whacko comment considering we have quite a bit of evidence of Jumbo riders, including Rogla, consuming alcohol).

It's... fishy.

 

[topt]

So we have a calculation where the input isn't given, and just repeating ad nauseam that I have the agenda?

Very convincing.

But for real, find one single post of mine saying Jumbo are clean.

moving the goal post a bit; you dont have to believe they are clean to have a pro jumbo agenda; yor posts after the TT were quite strange for a neutral poster

 

[topt]

It sounds like you need to chill out a touch

My reply to Rackham was the point out that both riders and both teams have images that they maintain and that get curated (perhaps massaged or tweaked would be a better phrase) by their respective PR machines. That is how social media and marketing works. I think you know that deep down, but you're getting stuck in some sort of us versus them, win or lose philosophy.

Glad you knew him and he's a nice guy. I've known some really nice bike racers who turned out to be rampant dopers.

This is Jonas' thread though, so enough ToddyTalk.

yes, the UAE PR machine says to Pog be the same as you are in without cameras, really curated.
I never said he wasnt doping, I dont know if he is (I hope not) but the idiotic attacks on his personality dont belong here.

 

[topt]

It's still nebulous and controversial how much enhancement you can account solely on doping. In short can you make roadrunners out of donkeys ? Or to stay on topic, can you make Vingegaard 3mn faster on 22km just by stuffing him with pills and turning a knob ?

I think injuries and medical difficulties probably account for plateauing or regressing (doping or not) in Dumoulin's case, followed by a loss of motivation afterwards. I wasn't following cycling too closely in that period but he never really came back in consistent and uninterrupted form post 2019, did he ? So it's hard to use him as a baseline there.

There's a lot of occult Froome exegesis on his "real" (assuming massive doping) level now that he is only riding with mundane results for massive wages, but he also had a serious injury at the hinge of his prime and fall. Maybe the simplest explanation is that with how elite and compact the top level is now, you're liable to be distanced at the first major injury and it's harder to come back (PEDs or not, though obviously there's a whole range of PEDs primarily useful for faster recovery).

Especially so in the context of the three GT because the prep planning has become so refined and stringent you need to be healthy on the whole run up to them.

COVID or "long COVID" also was jammed in there and while I don't know where the science stands exactly on the extent of it, several athletes did report long lasting consequences impacting their fitness.

yes, Sky proved that

 

[topt]

Froome never doped like the other guys, and his anomalous salbutamol finding was shown to be very flawed by an actual scientific study (I guess this forum has its fair share of anti-science conspiracy theorists though)

His performances weren't that abnormal either, not compared to 1990s and Armstrong, and now Pogacar and Vingegaard.

So yes you're correct that it's obvious with the huge time trial wins of Pogacar and Vingegaard and other performances which haven't been seen since 20 years ago that something is amiss. But this constant comparison with Sky and Froome, Thomas etc with their modest performances is just crazy, irrational and simply makes this whole forum the joke that many outsiders consider it is.

Irrational unscientific lunatics with nationalist agendas mostly, rather that sensible considered rational/scientfic arguments about the evidence before us.

ha ha ha, this coming from a guy that by his own words registered here only cause some people thought Sam Bennet was doping. You also use 99% of your posts to defend sky and british cycling; look in the mirror,please.

 

[Ricco']

The real transformation occurred after the Tour 2020. His performance level had spiked dramatically in the spring of 2021 and that years Tour was when he announced his arrival in the big time when he finished second on GC. Just looking at his TT results would back that up.

Sep 2018: Olympias 81st
Feb 2019: Andalucia 123rd
Apr 2019: Itzulia 43rd
May 2019: Romandie 53rd
Aug 2019: Denmark 7th
Nov 2020: Vuelta 105th
Feb 2021: UAE 13th
Apr 2021: Itzulia 3rd
Jun 2021: Dauphine 7th
Jul 2021: TDF 3rd

None of those results indicated that he was close to being a top TTer let alone capable of smashing the top riders by 3 minutes plus over 22km.

Tbf, he had already some half-decent TTs before that. Not world beaters or indicators that he could do this in a TdF time-trial, but if we're going to include results pre-2020, let's put all of them in the picture and not only the bad ones.

2016 - 19 y.o., 9th in Sibiu Tour uphill TT, beating Bernal, who had already very nice results that year for his age
2018 - prologue victory in Giro Valle d'Aosta - uphill TT
2018 - 16th in Triptyque Monts et Chateaux - hilly short TT, finishing close to some decent rouleurs like Hoole, Affini, Van Moer
2019 - 7th Danmark Rundt TT - 17km @ 51 kph average

 

[saganftw]

I'm not a Vinge defender. He indeed went considerably beyond 7 w/kg on the steepest part and his average after the descent so from the last 20-21 minutes (which can be considered a medium-length effort) was likely around 6.8 w/kg (based on his words and VAM/power-to-mass formula). Obviously 6.8 w/kg is still crazy, probably the biggest number I've seen for this duration in modern era (i.e. post EPO-peak). The TT being a standalone effort could help but OTOH isn't riding on a TT bike a bit detrimental to one's power? (which would make this even more unbelievable).

i remember back in armstrong days 6+ w/kg was suspicious (thats why most people mention 6w/kg as the benchmark,pre-armstrong ive never heard about it) the rumours about armstrong/pantani were high 6

so to go from that to "its wasnt 7,2 only 6,8", lance himself would laugh at that...ferrari probably too

i wonder whats ferrari up to these days, i bet more than anything he is curious what kind of program are they on, just from scientific perspective

 

[Riek s]

i remember back in armstrong days 6+ w/kg was suspicious (thats why most people mention 6w/kg as the benchmark,pre-armstrong ive never heard about it) the rumours about armstrong/pantani were high 6

so to go from that to "its wasnt 7,2 only 6,8", lance himself would laugh at that...ferrari probably too

i wonder whats ferrari up to these days, i bet more than anything he is curious what kind of program are they on, just from scientific perspective

The Power of the Tour de France 2013: Performance analysis groundwork

The 2013 Tour de France gets underway this weekend, and in preparation for our analysis, I explain the principles and concepts behind analysing Tour mountain performances.

sportsscientists.com

Briefly, however, the premise here is that in order to produce 6.2 W/kg or higher for longer than about 30 minutes requires physiology that is, frankly, not seen in normal situations. That doesn’t mean it’s not possible, but to illustrate, in order to ride at this kind of power output, a cyclist must have a VO2max that is tremendously high, in combination with an exceptional efficiency, and the ability to sustain upward of 85% of VO2max for those 30 minutes or more, at the end of a 5 hour stage. The combination of physiological factors does not, in my opinion, exist in order to validate power outputs above 6.2 W/kg for those durations.

 

[ElDesordenado]

From the Danish archives - what the Danish national team coach said right before the TdF 2021 when asked about potential Danish GC contenders:

“Jakob Fuglsang is Denmark’s best GC rider, but is aiming for the Olympics as his main goal. The next rider that comes to mind is Jonas Vingegaard. He has good qualities and I believe he will be a future man for big GC results, but he’s clearly racing in a supporting role and will have to save energy whenever possible, and you don’t do that by sticking to the front group or focusing on positioning yourself properly in the wind if your job is to deliver a great performance in the mountains the day after. So unfortunately, Danish GC prospects are not looking good, but that might leave space for some stage wins."

A rider with good qualities

 

[Riek s]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1682740049685757952

View: https://twitter.com/NaichacaCycling/status/1682740049685757952


Now that is much more believable

 

[Ripper]

yes, the UAE PR machine says to Pog be the same as you are in without cameras, really curated.
I never said he wasnt doping, I dont know if he is (I hope not) but the idiotic attacks on his personality dont belong here.

Then you are reading too much into what I am writing. I have not attacked his personality or said anything about him being a bad person. I've also not attacked Vingoman's personality.

I think your connection to Pogo might be making this more personal for you. Having raced with and interacted with riders who have been popped for doping, who are then talked about on this forum, I can appreciate that it is hard. I have raced with more than a few people who were/are wonderful people, but they also led a separate life and basically lied to me and others.

Professional sports!

 

[lenric]

dude is always looking to pogacar despite having more than 7 minutes on him.

 

[Didinho]

The Oscar goes to Vingo in the last 400m. Now we all see that he’s tired, so it was believable.

☝🏻☝🏻
He looks so tired omg.

 

[lenric]

dude already picked up his son to start recovering with injections of love

 

[QueenStagiaire]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1682740049685757952

View: https://twitter.com/NaichacaCycling/status/1682740049685757952


Now that is much more believable

You guys can thank me for telling Netserk that in the race thread. I am accepting letters of appreciation from Vingegaard fans starting now.

 

[theyoungest]

From the Danish archives - what the Danish national team coach said right before the TdF 2021 when asked about potential Danish GC contenders:

“Jakob Fuglsang is Denmark’s best GC rider, but is aiming for the Olympics as his main goal. The next rider that comes to mind is Jonas Vingegaard. He has good qualities and I believe he will be a future man for big GC results, but he’s clearly racing in a supporting role and will have to save energy whenever possible, and you don’t do that by sticking to the front group or focusing on positioning yourself properly in the wind if your job is to deliver a great performance in the mountains the day after. So unfortunately, Danish GC prospects are not looking good, but that might leave space for some stage wins."

A rider with good qualities

The national team coach is just a glorified cheerleader. At least that's how it is in most nations. I don't know about Denmark but I doubt he has any insight in power numbers. And before the TDF 2021, clearly naming Vingegaard as a contender for the overall win was a bit rich (although he did finish 2nd in Pais Vasco, and Fuglsang's best years were already quite far behind him).

 

[Krzysztof_O]

dude is always looking to pogacar despite having more than 7 minutes on him.

He got some syndrome after Cauterets loss. And he can't get over it despite basically annihilating Pogacar earlier this week, lol.

 

[ElDesordenado]

The national team coach is just a glorified cheerleader. At least that's how it is in most nations. I don't know about Denmark but I doubt he has any insight in power numbers. And before the TDF 2021, clearly naming Vingegaard as a contender for the overall win was a bit rich (although he did finish 2nd in Pais Vasco, and Fuglsang's best years were already quite far behind him).

I guess you're right about that. But as I see it, the quote from the coach says something about the explosiveness of Vingegaard's development. That's also what he said after that TdF: that he thought Vingegaard could produce big results in a Grand Tour, but he never expected it to happen that fast.

I also notice the modest choice of words. There's no talk of a cycling prodigy or anything along those lines - neither in that quote, nor in other quotes from prior to the TdF 2021. Fast forward to today, and we're talking a dominance the likes of which we haven't seen since, what, Armstrong in 1999?

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Great job today by Vingegaard to avoid being arrested for illegally high watt numbers! It‘s disappointing this prevented him from going for the stage.

 

[zlev11]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1682711239309312001

View: https://twitter.com/CyclingWatts/status/1682711239309312001?s=20


so there's an inconvenient truth for all the people who say posting w/kg estimates are "irresponsible" and "conspiracy theory". it's actually very very easy to get extremely close to reality just by knowing the climbing times.

 

[Rackham]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1682711239309312001

View: https://twitter.com/CyclingWatts/status/1682711239309312001?s=20


so there's an inconvenient truth for all the people who say posting w/kg estimates are "irresponsible" and "conspiracy theory". it's actually very very easy to get extremely close to reality just by knowing the climbing times.

Watts per kilo are often portrayed however people want them to be, i.e. exaggerated when people want to big up their favorite rider (see the Remco thread), downplayed when it's from a rider they don't like (I've done this before) & then downplayed again when it comes to sheepishly handwaving an embarrassing superhuman ultra 'not normal' mutant performance; which is what we saw after Tuesday's ITT from certain Vingegaard fans.

But once again this is just cycling, not rocket science. What we see is by & large what we get, which means when a skeletal dude atomizes Wout van Aert by nearly 3 minutes in a 22.4km rolling ITT, the power numbers will always back-up what the time gap is saying & what the average speed also says.

 

[theyoungest]

Watts per kilo are often portrayed however people want them to be, i.e. exaggerated when people want to big up their favorite rider (see the Remco thread), downplayed when it's from a rider they don't like (I've done this before) & then downplayed again when it comes to sheepishly handwaving an embarrassing superhuman ultra 'not normal' mutant performance; which is what we saw after Tuesday's ITT from certain Vingegaard fans.

But once again this is just cycling, not rocket science. What we see is by & large what we get, which means when a skeletal dude atomizes Wout van Aert by nearly 3 minutes in a 22.4km rolling ITT, the power numbers will always back-up what the time gap is saying & what the average speed also says.

What exactly are you trying to say?

"Rolling" doesn't quite do this TT justice. It was a semi-mountain TT. In a 22 k rolling TT, no way Vingegaard takes nearly 3 minutes on Van Aert. Even you, with your newfound dislike for Vingegaard and everything Jumbo, would have to agree.

 

[Vudy]

What exactly are you trying to say?

"Rolling" doesn't quite do this TT justice. It was a semi-mountain TT. In a 22 k rolling TT, no way Vingegaard takes nearly 3 minutes on Van Aert. Even you, with your newfound dislike for Vingegaard and everything Jumbo, would have to agree.

He takes 2 minutes then...

 

[Rackham]

What exactly are you trying to say?

"Rolling" doesn't quite do this TT justice. It was a semi-mountain TT. In a 22 k rolling TT, no way Vingegaard takes nearly 3 minutes on Van Aert. Even you, with your newfound dislike for Vingegaard and everything Jumbo, would have to agree.

It seems to me that ITT now also becomes whatever people want it to be, i.e. in this instance with an added dose of confusion from certain fans who on one hand call it an "semi-mountain TT" (or outright mountain TT) in order to downplay the gaps versus specialists like Van Aert, yet on the other had a good laugh at Pog for swapping bikes because obviously riding a TT bike in a mountain time trial makes more sense... or maybe it really was rolling & Jumbo made the right call not to swap?

i.e. the very fact teams couldn't agree on which material was best for the final part of the stage says it all: it was up & down & rolling, with a final few km's which eased off in terms of gradients. We've seen mountain TT's... this was not it. It terms of profile it came closer to something akin to a longer version of a Basque Country prologue ITT, i.e. small up, a descent & a final murito of sorts.

 

[theyoungest]

It seems to me that ITT now also becomes whatever people want it to be, i.e. in this instance with an added dose of confusion from certain fans who on one hand call it an "semi-mountain TT" (or outright mountain TT) in order to downplay the gaps versus specialists like Van Aert, yet on the other had a good laugh at Pog for swapping bikes because obviously riding a TT bike in a mountain time trial makes more sense... or maybe it really was rolling & Jumbo made the right call not to swap?

i.e. the very fact teams couldn't agree on which material was best for the final part of the stage says it all: it was up & down & rolling, with a final few km's which eased off in terms of gradients. We've seen mountain TT's... this was not it. It terms of profile it came closer to something akin to a longer version of a Basque Country prologue ITT, i.e. small up, a descent & a final murito of sorts.

Pogacar rode 39 km/h average. That's 1 km/h faster than the Planche des Belles Filles TT, which you will call "rolling" as well of course. Disregarding the huge climb at the end. For comparison: the last Basque prologue that Roglic won, he rode 48 km/h average. That one did indeed have a little ramp at the end. Nowhere close to what we saw on Tuesday though.

The reason a bike change wasn't necessary is that a large part of the climb wasn't that steep. But it was a climb nonetheless. Are you really incapable of seeing nuance?