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Juan Ayuso discussion thread

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I don't want to be overly dramatic, maybe he just had a bad day and will erase all doubts tomorrow, but I'm concerned. How much progression does he still have in him as a climber? He's been more or less a pro since he was a junior, having his own dietician, training major hours. His progression between his final days at Bathco and now with UAE seem rather minimal. He was dropping major numbers with Colpack in the Girobio, but it would appear there is no next level, whereas he has taken major strides as a time trialist.
 
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I don't want to be overly dramatic, maybe he just had a bad day and will erase all doubts tomorrow, but I'm concerned. How much progression does he still have in him as a climber? He's been more or less a pro since he was a junior, having his own dietician, training major hours. His progression between his final days at Bathco and now with UAE seem rather minimal. He was dropping major numbers with Colpack in the Girobio, but it would appear there is no next level, whereas he has taken major strides as a time trialist.
I wonder whether the problem might be durability?
TTs nowadays are mostly in the 10-30 minutes range of effort and he's clearly cream of the crop at those.
But he doesn't have an extra gear at the end of the stage, after being on the saddle for 4-5-6 hours.

Interesting take by @mou in the Paris-Nice thread, suggesting San Millan can't take you to the next level.
 
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I wonder whether the problem might be durability?
TTs nowadays are mostly in the 10-30 minutes range of effort and he's clearly cream of the crop at those.
But he doesn't have an extra gear at the end of the stage, after being on the saddle for 4-5-6 hours.

Interesting take by @mou in the Paris-Nice thread, suggesting San Millan can't take you to the next level.
Matxin is the best scout in the world and has top contacts in the world, as a tactician he is 0 and persistently interferes in the work of DS, the only DS expert in that team at an acceptable level is Fabio Baldato, 2+2 is always 4, if Pogacar is so far was trained by a quasi-trainer who only prescribed endurance rides of 5W/kg and FTP 15 min intervals 2 times a week after zone 2 and the rest of his training was based on prescribing training from training peaks, imagine what can happen when a top-level coach takes over Sola, if one Yates progressed from 32 years old after 1 year of working with him, how much Pogi will progress 🤭, UAE has the best TT setup in the world, Pogačar finally has a coach who trains him with a Core device for heat training and for the first time you could see Pogacar in Strade Bianche to wear Core attached to a heart rate strap, he finally has real training and intervals for hills for the first time in his career and he will have properly conducted altitude training after the Giro, I can't tell you how I know all that, but believe me I have insight firsthand in all that, how else would I show you Pogačar's part from training on 24.2.2024 and that his 349w is 5.33w/kg as a base training and FTP 431w, that he will be 20% better is frankly a little too hasty, but if could predict for the Giro Pogacar will be at 65 kg, at both TTs he will win, at 15 min he will have 7.3 w/kg, at 20 min 7 w/kg, at 30 min hill 6.7 and at 40+ min hill he will have 6.5 w/ kg and on the Tour kg less and the strength is the same, so if Vingegard gets that from me, he has 👏👏👏👏
 
Could this be the longest sentence ever produced? My brain hurts.

And what about Ayuso? Why is it only Pogi with a new trainer?
because he realized that Inigo is a charlatan and since Pogi is good friends with Novak and Yates who achieved the best numbers in their lives and who are coached by Sola, Pogačar was looking for a change, check if Pogi is unfollowed Inigo from Instagram and all networks and things will be clearer.😉😉
 
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While he may have picked all the low-hanging fruit before stepping up, I still think that he will gradually improve and challenge for a GT in 3-5 years.

But it's no secret that I think he's overrated currently.
I was very bearish on him last year and got called a troll for it all the time

Reality slowly started to set whem the mythical Vuelta 3rd week attack was in reverse direction on the Angliru
 
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Matxin is the best scout in the world and has top contacts in the world, as a tactician he is 0 and persistently interferes in the work of DS, the only DS expert in that team at an acceptable level is Fabio Baldato, 2+2 is always 4, if Pogacar is so far was trained by a quasi-trainer who only prescribed endurance rides of 5W/kg and FTP 15 min intervals 2 times a week after zone 2 and the rest of his training was based on prescribing training from training peaks, imagine what can happen when a top-level coach takes over Sola, if one Yates progressed from 32 years old after 1 year of working with him, how much Pogi will progress 🤭, UAE has the best TT setup in the world, Pogačar finally has a coach who trains him with a Core device for heat training and for the first time you could see Pogacar in Strade Bianche to wear Core attached to a heart rate strap, he finally has real training and intervals for hills for the first time in his career and he will have properly conducted altitude training after the Giro, I can't tell you how I know all that, but believe me I have insight firsthand in all that, how else would I show you Pogačar's part from training on 24.2.2024 and that his 349w is 5.33w/kg as a base training and FTP 431w, that he will be 20% better is frankly a little too hasty, but if could predict for the Giro Pogacar will be at 65 kg, at both TTs he will win, at 15 min he will have 7.3 w/kg, at 20 min 7 w/kg, at 30 min hill 6.7 and at 40+ min hill he will have 6.5 w/ kg and on the Tour kg less and the strength is the same, so if Vingegard gets that from me, he has 👏👏👏👏

1 correction for you, Yates is trained by Inigo, not Sola.
 
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I wonder whether the problem might be durability?
TTs nowadays are mostly in the 10-30 minutes range of effort and he's clearly cream of the crop at those.
But he doesn't have an extra gear at the end of the stage, after being on the saddle for 4-5-6 hours.

Interesting take by @mou in the Paris-Nice thread, suggesting San Millan can't take you to the next level.
His best climbing performance was a >200km multi mountain stage. Think he's actually a bit worse on unipuerto. Worst climb in the Vuelta last year was Angliru.

Mostly, it seems we're looking for an explanation why he can't climb with Vingegaard, when the appropriate question should be "why should he?" becuase only Pogacar can hang with him on most days.

His ITT is good, but this Tirreno ITT seems a bit of an outlier.
 
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His best climbing performance was a >200km multi mountain stage. Think he's actually a bit worse on unipuerto. Worst climb in the Vuelta last year was Angliru.

Mostly, it seems we're looking for an explanation why he can't climb with Vingegaard, when the appropriate question should be "why should he?" becuase only Pogacar can hang with him on most days.

His ITT is good, but this Tirreno ITT seems a bit of an outlier.
No, that's not it and nobody even implied such a thing. Not one person on earth is expecting him to counter Vingegaard. What we do expect and what is reasonable to expect is for him to progress into more than what he is now. Ayuso was the best teenage climber in the history of the sport. At 21 hardly a finished product, but knowing his background, the lack of progression is raising a fair few question marks and gives reason for concern.

Yesterday he was worse than Hindley, worse than O'Connor, worse than Arensman and, lettuce say, on an equal level to Del Toro. He needs to be better if he wants to cement himself as an elite contender at the absolutely highest level.
 
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No, that's not it and nobody even implied such a thing. Not one person on earth is expecting him to counter Vingegaard. What we do expect and what is reasonable to expect is for him to progress into more than what he is now. Ayuso was the best teenage climber in the history of the sport. At 21 hardly a finished product, but knowing his background, the lack of progression is raising a fair few question marks and gives reason for concern.

Yesterday he was worse than Hindley, worse than O'Connor, worse than Arensman and, lettuce say, on an equal level to Del Toro. He needs to be better if he wants to cement himself as an elite contender at the absolutely highest level.
Didn't look worse than O'Connor to me. He just doesn't like going over the limit, and O'Connor really looked like he did to me. Hindley a bit as well.

The obvious red flag for Ayuso for me is him living like a top professionals since he was a junior, especially having a dietician already screams 'hit ceiling at 21' to me.

Having said that, I don't think a 2nd place in a mountain stage behidn Vingegaard is reason for excessive concern. I think only Hindley was convincingly better, but Hindley was a bit silly leading out the sprint from so far. And I actually really rate Hindley, I think he's one of the best climbers among humans.
 
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The FOMO sign-juniors-whatever-the-cost mentality has existed for longer, but Ayuso might be the first of what I call professional juniors. Living like a monk whilst still pretty much a kid. The only thing he didn't have at his disposal was a plane to Teide. Huge advantages short term, but how much progression is left long term? I don't have the numbers, but has Ayuso progressed as a climber since 2022? I do not know, based purely on eye test.

You compare him to his nemesis Carlos Rodriguez, and you can see the latter has visible year by year progression (though his '24 has been horrid thus far). You compare Ayuso to Tarling, who came through with baby fat and all, not training as intense, and I can only help but wonder how far he will be come year 4 of being a pro.

Maybe Ayuso shuts me the hell up today or during TDF, and I certainly don't want to hang my hat onto just this Tirreno, but this year does feel like an exam to me.
 
1 correction for you, Yates is trained by Inigo, not Sola.
His now ex, Bask Inigo san Milan, has taken on more duties at the Athletic Bilbao football club and since looking after the world's number one cyclist is a full-time commitment, 37-year-old Spaniard Javier Sola is now taking care of his form. He joined the Emirates team last year, so far he has coached Domno Novak, Italian Diego Ulissi and British Adam Yates.

Source:slovenian newspaper "Vecer"
 
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His now ex, Bask Inigo san Milan, has taken on more duties at the Athletic Bilbao football club and since looking after the world's number one cyclist is a full-time commitment, 37-year-old Spaniard Javier Sola is now taking care of his form. He joined the Emirates team last year, so far he has coached Domno Novak, Italian Diego Ulissi and British Adam Yates.

Source:slovenian newspaper "Vecer"
I am not getting into a who is right or wrong wanting to produce the inside info on UAE, I agree with your view on Javier, I agree with your view on Inigo and his real ability vs what is put out there by him, with that being agreed upon, It is fact that Inigo coaches Yates, from last year a and no again this year. Yates is happy with his coaching. Yes, Almeida, Ullisi, Tadej, McNulty, Hirschi all left Inigo for what they felt was a better coach inside the team and that is telling for anyone, but Yates is coached by Inigo. Your newspaper or info is on this 1 thing incorrect.

Source: Correct info.
 
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