Juan Ayuso discussion thread

[AlfaLum]

The route of this Giro so far makes any claim that Del Toro could be stronger than Ayuso a bit fanciful due to the fact we've had hardly any real difficulties. In that respect it really does share a small similarity with the 2009 TdF in the sense the backended nature of that edition meant L.A. could 'pretend' he was in contention versus Contador for longer than his legs eventually showed.

All things being equal and unless Del Toro has suddenly made several massive leaps forward, he'll be in huge trouble starting on Tuesday IMO.

And I suspect the only thing bothering Ayuso right now is his knee. That pointless gravel stage might have amused the spectators but both favorites hit the deck. That's impacting the race right now.

Their were attacks on the San Pellegrino, which Toro answered with ease, Del Toro was by far the strongest in the sterrato stage, which was still a 40 minute effort from him.

I think reactions like this are overlooking the level that Del Toro has reached the last 1,5 years so far, where I will mention only what he did in the past half year:

• Del Toro was probably among the three best riders in Basque Country, but did insane work for Almeida instead of going for a result himself
• Del Toro was very good in Tirreno working for Ayuso, where he still managed to get 7th in the mountain stage after setting up Ayuso for the win
• Del Toro won Milano - Torino with a strong performance on Superga
• Del Toro had the entire peloton in pain in The Ardèche while setting up the Ayuso win
• Del Toro was probably the strongest in Jaen, but because McNulty was in front with Kwiatkowski hé could only try to bridge the gap at too late a point in the race

Of course there is a possibility that his inexperience will show next week and that he will suffer during week three. But we are dealing with a superbly talented rider here, and pointing to several massive leaps forward here doesnt really do justice the guy has reached in past races.

 

[Rackham]

Their were attacks on the San Pellegrino, which Toro answered with ease, Del Toro was by far the strongest in the sterrato stage, which was still a 40 minute effort from him.

I think reactions like this are overlooking the level that Del Toro has reached the last 1,5 years so far, where I will mention only what he did in the past half year:

• Del Toro was probably among the three best riders in Basque Country, but did insane work for Almeida instead of going for a result himself
• Del Toro was very good in Tirreno working for Ayuso, where he still managed to get 7th in the mountain stage after setting up Ayuso for the win
• Del Toro won Milano - Torino with a strong performance on Superga
• Del Toro had the entire peloton in pain in The Ardèche while setting up the Ayuso win
• Del Toro was probably the strongest in Jaen, but because McNulty was in front with Kwiatkowski hé could only try to bridge the gap at too late a point in the race

Of course there is a possibility that his inexperience will show next week and that he will suffer during week three. But we are dealing with a superbly talented rider here, and pointing to several massive leaps forward here doesnt really do justice the guy has reached in past races.

It depends on what people are looking for or expecting Del Toro to become.

If you're saying he's a great rider with huge prospects, yes. But what I'm seeing around the internet is people suggesting he's going to be the best climber in this Giro and he's the new Pog, basically. Now unless there's outside factors (crashes, incidents, whatever), I believe people are extrapolating Pog's rise and applying the same 'logic' to Del Toro because he rides in the same team.

I'm much more reserved.

 

[AlfaLum]

It depends on what people are looking for or expecting Del Toro to become.

If you're saying he's a great rider with huge prospects, yes. But what I'm seeing around the internet is people suggesting he's going to be the best climber in this Giro and he's the new Pog, basically. Now unless there's outside factors (crashes, incidents, whatever), I believe people are extrapolating Pog's rise and applying the same 'logic' to Del Toro because he rides in the same team.

I'm much more reserved.

There is no need for him to be the new Pogacar to challenge for this giro. Even a 100% fit Ayuso is not near the level of the current Pogacar. Same goes for Roglic. And both of them are not at their best level for the moment.

The ceiling for Del Toro is hard to predict, his level has been amazing since Avenir 2023 and there seems to be quite some upside for him given his background. I think even Del Toro and UAE dont know whether he will be able to compete in the third week this time around.

What i do know, is that for now, over these past 12 stages he has been the best GC rider in this Giro.

 

[Red Rick]

Del Toro has been the best GC rider not taken out by Lucas Hamilton. Big difference.

 

[Peyroteo94]

The route of this Giro so far makes any claim that Del Toro could be stronger than Ayuso a bit fanciful due to the fact we've had hardly any real difficulties. In that respect it really does share a small similarity with the 2009 TdF in the sense the backended nature of that edition meant L.A. could 'pretend' he was in contention versus Contador for longer than his legs eventually showed.

All things being equal and unless Del Toro has suddenly made several massive leaps forward, he'll be in huge trouble starting on Tuesday IMO.

And I suspect the only thing bothering Ayuso right now is his knee. That pointless gravel stage might have amused the spectators but both favorites hit the deck. That's impacting the race right now.

Contador beat LA in the TT and Arcallis. Both were in the first week

 

[Rackham]

Contador beat LA in the TT and Arcallis. Both were in the first week

An injured Ayuso with stiches coming undone demolished Del Toro in the ITT on Tuesday.

 

[Cycling111]

Hesjedal, TAO, and Hindley have won a Giro. Hindley beat Carapaz when he was at great moment.
They can win the Giro without being a dominant rider. And winning a Giro doesn't mean being a rider who can win a Tour. Hindley did a good Tour but had no chance of winning it.

 

[Cycling111]

Teddy is the real DS of the team. If Del Toro was told to slow down because of Ayuso then Matxin and Gianetti will face consequences.

If that were the case, Ayuso wouldn't have gone to the Tour after saying he wouldn't be a domestique, while talking about his own interests. Pogacar needed and wanted a team that support him, Like every Tour leader, not teammates with personal aspirations.
Ayuso was in the Tour by decision of the DS

An injured Ayuso with stiches coming undone demolished Del Toro in the ITT on Tuesday.

In time trials, it's important to be a good specialist. Ayuso is better and has more experience than Del Toro in ITT.

Even if Pantani was strong, he did disaster ITT. Ciccone is in good shape and has done bad time ITT. He's simply very bad at the specialty.

It was also a rainy time trial. Del Toro may have been more afraid due to his inexperience. It's difficult to draw conclusions from a rainy time trial due to the risk/fear factor of each rider.

I wouldn't draw so many conclusions about riders shape when talking about cyclists who haven't won a single time trial and it was raining.

 

[Rackham]

If that were the case, Ayuso wouldn't have gone to the Tour after saying he wouldn't be a domestique, while talking about his own interests. Pogacar needed and wanted a team that support him, Like every Tour leader, not teammates with personal aspirations.
Ayuso was in the Tour by decision of the DS


In time trials, it's important to be a good specialist. Ayuso is better and has more experience than Del Toro in ITT.

Even if Pantani was strong, he did disaster ITT. Ciccone is in good shape and has done bad time ITT. He's simply very bad at the specialty.

It was also a rainy time trial. Del Toro may have been more afraid due to his inexperience. It's difficult to draw conclusions from a rainy time trial due to the risk/fear factor of each rider.

I wouldn't draw so many conclusions about riders shape when talking about cyclists who haven't won a single time trial and it was raining.

It seems quite arbitrary for people to extrapolate Del Toro's improvements into a scenario in which he wins the Giro by beating Ayuso, Rog and co - especially in the mountains - yet there's a convenient little addendum in the form of *except in ITT's

Tbh he already lost more time in that ITT than a lot of his biggest proponents believed he would so I'd say the truth regarding the overall bigger picture is somewhere in the middle, which means all things being equal I fully expect Ayuso to drop Del Toro quite handily next week (along with other climbers doing the same as well).

 

[Cycling111]

I think if Roglic doesn't win the Giro, Ayuso will. In any case, I think Ayuso will finish above Del Toro.
But the time trial isn't always an indicator. It´s indicative when that rider is a very good time trialist and does poorly.

Pantani's case was obvious. He could be the strongest but always lose in the ITT.
To take a more recent example. Landa finished fifth in 2024 TDF. He was the fifth strongest in the Tour, but in the ITT, he didn't even finish in the top 10.

Del Toro has had good performances, but so far he hasn't proven himself a reliable specialist who can fight for victory in the time trial.


Landa finished 35th in the first Tour time trial behind Steff Cras. Landa was infinitely stronger than Steff in the Tour.
I think Ayuso will finish the Giro better than Del Toro. He´s prepared more than him to win it, but the fact that Del Toro performed worse in the time trial doesn't necessarily mean he isn't stronger.

32	CRAS Steff	TotalEnergies				2.05,33	49.033
33	HAIG Jack	Bahrain - Victorious				2.08,8	48.942
34	LUTSENKO Alexey	Astana Qazaqstan Team				2.13,58	48.816
35	LANDA Mikel	Soudal Quick-Step				2.15,42	48.768

 

[SafeBet]

It seems quite arbitrary for people to extrapolate Del Toro's improvements into a scenario in which he wins the Giro by beating Ayuso, Rog and co - especially in the mountains - yet there's a convenient little addendum in the form of *except in ITT's

I don't think Del Toro needs that much improvement compared to, say, Tirreno - Adriatico 2024 (and all the other races @AlfaLum brought up earlier). His level going uphill isn't a question mark to me. His recovery is.

Ayuso hasn't been particularly consistent either in mountain stages over the past two years. But there's at least a history of not collapsing in a GT third week.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I don't think Del Toro needs that much improvement compared to, say, Tirreno - Adriatico 2024 (and all the other races @AlfaLum brought up earlier). His level going uphill isn't a question mark to me. His recovery is.

Ayuso hasn't been particularly consistent either in mountain stages over the past two years. But there's at least a history of not collapsing in a GT third week.

At least in the u23 ranks consistency was Del Toro's strength...

 

[SafeBet]

At least in the u23 ranks consistency was Del Toro's strength...

Yes but three weeks is a different beast and even UAE has no idea whether Torito will keep it up until Rome.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Yes but three weeks is a different beast and even UAE has no idea whether Torito will keep it up until Rome.

Oh yeah, it's a different beast.

 

[AlfaLum]

Just to be clear, for me Del Toro also isn't the number one favorite for the GC either at the moment. With the current standings I would still say that Roglic and Ayuso have a (slightly) better chance.

For Roglic his track-record is well known and it's quite clear what he can do in a third week. Problem for him is still that his team is way weaker, but with the current situation that does not necessarily have to become a problem.

Ayuso's top level for now has also been a bit above Del Toro's top level during their careers so far. With the needed addition that has to be mentioned that Ayuso has also gotten way more chances to show it as a captain so far during his career.

Del Toro is a more unknown quantity, and of course a totally unknown quantity in three weeks of racing for a GC. What I have seen from him throughout his career is that on his best days he is just an incredible rider, with a very high ceiling in all different aspects of GC racing with the exception of Recovery (Because it is still unknown over three weeks).

On the other hand over the last two years Isaac Del Toro seems to be the type of rider that surprises positively with every chance he gets. Even at Avenir, people would be betting that the Mexican would not be able to do it on his own in the biggest U23 Stage Race on the Calendar. Only for the guy to smash his opponents to pieces day in and day out.

Then at his first WT race a few months later he wins a stage and podiums for the GC. Again a few months later he top-5s in a very high quality Tirreno. And this continues with very good performances in 2025. At some point talents like this do not deserve being reserved about them anymore. Del Toro is simply a contender for the win at this moment.

 

[Unchained]

At least in the u23 ranks consistency was Del Toro's strength...

Juan Ayuso is 22, Del Toro 21, full year apart. Both with great potential that is obvious. Ayuso is being referred to as old man.. He is not, might feel like it with unfortunate injuries. Significant climbing results from Ayuso, unavailable from Del Toro because he didn't do the races!! Ayuso consistently takes time out of top competition in time trials, consistently out of Del Toro. Without any doubt Del Toro will have motivation from Giro experience, win or lose to improve on his weaknesses.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Juan Ayuso is 22, Del Toro 21, full year apart. Both with great potential that is obvious. Ayuso is being referred to as old man.. He is not, might feel like it with unfortunate injuries. Significant climbing results from Ayuso, unavailable from Del Toro because he didn't do the races!! Ayuso consistently takes time out of top competition in time trials, consistently out of Del Toro. Without any doubt Del Toro will have motivation from Giro experience, win or lose to improve on his weaknesses.

The difference is that Del Toro was riding the u23 ranks for a small club while Ayuso was already coached by San Millan/UAE. It's also Ayuso's 4th season as a pro.

 

[Unchained]

The difference is that Del Toro was riding the u23 ranks for a small club while Ayuso was already coached by San Millan/UAE. It's also Ayuso's 4th season as a pro.

That is different for sure, Monex really small, included other Mexicans ,Italian based..I don't know which development riders from WT teams, if any Isaac beat at I'Avenir.. It has to be realized how positive all the progression.. All straight forward.. Del Toro wins, l'Avenir, signs, 3 year contract with UAE, staff decide on Tour Down Under start, he wins first race first day!! Has 3 wins first season and he hasn't looked back. I didn't look at Ayuso trajectory, but UAE decided as a rookie Del Toro would ride Vuelta, got some top 10s, and now making most of opportunity and Ayuso misfortune. I will need to look up numbers for Juan's first 2 years. No matter what they are, at 22 for Ayuso to be designated team leader, predicted favorite in cross section stages is impressive.. Guy rides a decent TT, climbs well over multiple days and has enough juice that bigger monsters can't ride him off their wheel on flatter terrain. Guy is quality!! That takes nothing away from Del Toro!!

 

[CyclistAbi]

Today Ayuso has set things straight. Del Toro had to let Ayuso ahead at RB KM and Yates was used to bring him back on the climb. Leadership is hence set.

 

[Juan Pelota]

That is different for sure, Monex really small, included other Mexicans ,Italian based..I don't know which development riders from WT teams, if any Isaac beat at I'Avenir.. It has to be realized how positive all the progression.. All straight forward.. Del Toro wins, l'Avenir, signs, 3 year contract with UAE, staff decide on Tour Down Under start, he wins first race first day!! Has 3 wins first season and he hasn't looked back. I didn't look at Ayuso trajectory, but UAE decided as a rookie Del Toro would ride Vuelta, got some top 10s, and now making most of opportunity and Ayuso misfortune. I will need to look up numbers for Juan's first 2 years. No matter what they are, at 22 for Ayuso to be designated team leader, predicted favorite in cross section stages is impressive.. Guy rides a decent TT, climbs well over multiple days and has enough juice that bigger monsters can't ride him off their wheel on flatter terrain. Guy is quality!! That takes nothing away from Del Toro!!

I mean Ayuso got 3rd in the Vuelta at age 19..... was the youngest rider to grand tour a podium since 1904.

 

[Unchained]

I mean Ayuso got 3rd in the Vuelta at age 19..... was the youngest rider to grand tour a podium since 1904.

He is impressive for sure, I really like him. Crowd has turned a crash into unnecessary controversy. Del Toro was told, Juan went down, don't wait any longer, race as hard as you can, he did, fast forward to today.. Without being dramatic, millions are surprised, Del Toro, Juan Ayuso included!!

 

[Potomac]

He is impressive for sure, I really like him. Crowd has turned a crash into unnecessary controversy. Del Toro was told, Juan went down, don't wait any longer, race as hard as you can, he did, fast forward to today.. Without being dramatic, millions are surprised, Del Toro, Juan Ayuso included!!

It is a completely necessary controversy

 

[CyclistAbi]

So Ayuso didn't want to work for Pogi and del Toro doesn't want to work for Ayuso? Might, after all, this be ageism related issue? Ayuso is after all an older rider, just like Pogi is.

 

[veganrob]

So Ayuso didn't want to work for Pogi and del Toro doesn't want to work for Ayuso? Might, after all, this be ageism related issue? Ayuso is after all an older rider, just like Pogi is.

Age has nothing to do with it. Ayuso wouldn't work for Pogi because he is a petulant little ***. Del Toro doesn't want to work for Ayuso because he is feeling like he could win. If by chance Ayuso can get the lead I'm sure Del Toro would work for him.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Age has nothing to do with it.

Please stop by in Rogla thread some time, explaining that.

Ayuso wouldn't work for Pogi because he is a petulant little ***. Del Toro doesn't want to work for Ayuso because he is feeling like he could win. If by chance Ayuso can get the lead I'm sure Del Toro would work for him.

So what makes one petulant and one not is Ayuso doesn't feel he could win, against Pogi?