Juan Ayuso discussion thread

[Cycling111]

I think if Roglic doesn't win the Giro, Ayuso will. In any case, I think Ayuso will finish above Del Toro.
But the time trial isn't always an indicator. It´s indicative when that rider is a very good time trialist and does poorly.

Pantani's case was obvious. He could be the strongest but always lose in the ITT.
To take a more recent example. Landa finished fifth in 2024 TDF. He was the fifth strongest in the Tour, but in the ITT, he didn't even finish in the top 10.

Del Toro has had good performances, but so far he hasn't proven himself a reliable specialist who can fight for victory in the time trial.


Landa finished 35th in the first Tour time trial behind Steff Cras. Landa was infinitely stronger than Steff in the Tour.
I think Ayuso will finish the Giro better than Del Toro. He´s prepared more than him to win it, but the fact that Del Toro performed worse in the time trial doesn't necessarily mean he isn't stronger.

32	CRAS Steff	TotalEnergies				2.05,33	49.033
33	HAIG Jack	Bahrain - Victorious				2.08,8	48.942
34	LUTSENKO Alexey	Astana Qazaqstan Team				2.13,58	48.816
35	LANDA Mikel	Soudal Quick-Step				2.15,42	48.768

 

[SafeBet]

It seems quite arbitrary for people to extrapolate Del Toro's improvements into a scenario in which he wins the Giro by beating Ayuso, Rog and co - especially in the mountains - yet there's a convenient little addendum in the form of *except in ITT's

I don't think Del Toro needs that much improvement compared to, say, Tirreno - Adriatico 2024 (and all the other races @AlfaLum brought up earlier). His level going uphill isn't a question mark to me. His recovery is.

Ayuso hasn't been particularly consistent either in mountain stages over the past two years. But there's at least a history of not collapsing in a GT third week.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I don't think Del Toro needs that much improvement compared to, say, Tirreno - Adriatico 2024 (and all the other races @AlfaLum brought up earlier). His level going uphill isn't a question mark to me. His recovery is.

Ayuso hasn't been particularly consistent either in mountain stages over the past two years. But there's at least a history of not collapsing in a GT third week.

At least in the u23 ranks consistency was Del Toro's strength...

 

[SafeBet]

At least in the u23 ranks consistency was Del Toro's strength...

Yes but three weeks is a different beast and even UAE has no idea whether Torito will keep it up until Rome.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Yes but three weeks is a different beast and even UAE has no idea whether Torito will keep it up until Rome.

Oh yeah, it's a different beast.

 

[AlfaLum]

Just to be clear, for me Del Toro also isn't the number one favorite for the GC either at the moment. With the current standings I would still say that Roglic and Ayuso have a (slightly) better chance.

For Roglic his track-record is well known and it's quite clear what he can do in a third week. Problem for him is still that his team is way weaker, but with the current situation that does not necessarily have to become a problem.

Ayuso's top level for now has also been a bit above Del Toro's top level during their careers so far. With the needed addition that has to be mentioned that Ayuso has also gotten way more chances to show it as a captain so far during his career.

Del Toro is a more unknown quantity, and of course a totally unknown quantity in three weeks of racing for a GC. What I have seen from him throughout his career is that on his best days he is just an incredible rider, with a very high ceiling in all different aspects of GC racing with the exception of Recovery (Because it is still unknown over three weeks).

On the other hand over the last two years Isaac Del Toro seems to be the type of rider that surprises positively with every chance he gets. Even at Avenir, people would be betting that the Mexican would not be able to do it on his own in the biggest U23 Stage Race on the Calendar. Only for the guy to smash his opponents to pieces day in and day out.

Then at his first WT race a few months later he wins a stage and podiums for the GC. Again a few months later he top-5s in a very high quality Tirreno. And this continues with very good performances in 2025. At some point talents like this do not deserve being reserved about them anymore. Del Toro is simply a contender for the win at this moment.

 

[Unchained]

At least in the u23 ranks consistency was Del Toro's strength...

Juan Ayuso is 22, Del Toro 21, full year apart. Both with great potential that is obvious. Ayuso is being referred to as old man.. He is not, might feel like it with unfortunate injuries. Significant climbing results from Ayuso, unavailable from Del Toro because he didn't do the races!! Ayuso consistently takes time out of top competition in time trials, consistently out of Del Toro. Without any doubt Del Toro will have motivation from Giro experience, win or lose to improve on his weaknesses.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Juan Ayuso is 22, Del Toro 21, full year apart. Both with great potential that is obvious. Ayuso is being referred to as old man.. He is not, might feel like it with unfortunate injuries. Significant climbing results from Ayuso, unavailable from Del Toro because he didn't do the races!! Ayuso consistently takes time out of top competition in time trials, consistently out of Del Toro. Without any doubt Del Toro will have motivation from Giro experience, win or lose to improve on his weaknesses.

The difference is that Del Toro was riding the u23 ranks for a small club while Ayuso was already coached by San Millan/UAE. It's also Ayuso's 4th season as a pro.

 

[Unchained]

The difference is that Del Toro was riding the u23 ranks for a small club while Ayuso was already coached by San Millan/UAE. It's also Ayuso's 4th season as a pro.

That is different for sure, Monex really small, included other Mexicans ,Italian based..I don't know which development riders from WT teams, if any Isaac beat at I'Avenir.. It has to be realized how positive all the progression.. All straight forward.. Del Toro wins, l'Avenir, signs, 3 year contract with UAE, staff decide on Tour Down Under start, he wins first race first day!! Has 3 wins first season and he hasn't looked back. I didn't look at Ayuso trajectory, but UAE decided as a rookie Del Toro would ride Vuelta, got some top 10s, and now making most of opportunity and Ayuso misfortune. I will need to look up numbers for Juan's first 2 years. No matter what they are, at 22 for Ayuso to be designated team leader, predicted favorite in cross section stages is impressive.. Guy rides a decent TT, climbs well over multiple days and has enough juice that bigger monsters can't ride him off their wheel on flatter terrain. Guy is quality!! That takes nothing away from Del Toro!!