Remember Joao actually beat Jonas on a MTF in Paris-Nice and that he has shown an incredible level this year. Ayuso is more the wildcard as staubsauger points out, but both of these riders at 100% and this race won't be easy for Jonas at all IMO. Jonas was very good in Spain in 2023, but still not at his best. Should have won the race though.
Who else can challenge Jonas and UAE? Enriki Mas is interesting as usual, but lacks the final bit in order to win. Maybe Bora will show up with the big guns? They are already bringingg Hindley and Giulio, but how about Lipo and Roglic? I think the latter should race. Landa is interesting, but like Mas, doubt he has the top end level anymore. Maybe Gall? Vuelta is pretty bad for him though. Bernal and Gee will probably line up along with Carapaz as well, he's probably the most interesting out of the bunch.