Junior racing - The stars of the future

[Zinoviev Letter]

It's not that hard to be outstanding in Ireland's or GB's junior scene. Dunbar is not that good, his national competition is just pretty weak. I don't see him in the World's top 10.

You certainly get a small pond factor in Ireland. The one guy who is good in any age group is usually way better than anyone else. Less so in Britain these days. The two together represent a big enough talent pool for being the best by miles to be reasonably significant. Of course, how significant is hard to know, given the absence of a real international season for kids.

Of course even being a world class junior is of very limited predictive value anyway.

 

[Ruudz0r]

It depends for some juniors you can already say they have the talent to turn into a (good) professional, for others not so much even though they might perform better.
For example Blikra who is killing it as a first year junior it is very uncertain for me. Because he is already riding for a long time (+ has a big brother at a decent level), but mostly because he is much further .... (cant think of the English word), then the other 17 years old.
While Adrien Costa for me (who is also killing it) has a much bigger shot at turning into a very good professional.

I even dare to say Olivier Wulff Frederiksen who is from 2000 (so two categories lower then junior) will turn into a good professional. Because of his performances + the word I cannot think of in English.

 

[janraaskalt]

It depends for some juniors you can already say they have the talent to turn into a (good) professional, for others not so much even though they might perform better.
For example Blikra who is killing it as a first year junior it is very uncertain for me. Because he is already riding for a long time (+ has a big brother at a decent level), but mostly because he is much further .... (cant think of the English word), then the other 17 years old.
While Adrien Costa for me (who is also killing it) has a much bigger shot at turning into a very good professional.

I even dare to say Olivier Wulff Frederiksen who is from 2000 (so two categories lower then junior) will turn into a good professional. Because of his performances + the word I cannot think of in English.

"Matured"?

 

[Ruudz0r]

Something like that ye, like the body of a 20 year old

 

[Inquitus]

It's not that hard to be outstanding in Ireland's or GB's junior scene. Dunbar is not that good, his national competition is just pretty weak. I don't see him in the World's top 10.

He's already got results at junior european level, featuring everytime he's raced on the continent, O'Loughlin also mentioned here beat the elite men at the recent Wexford 2 Day Race here in Ireland taking the title with a late break on the final stage, 2 rare talents, keep an eye next month.

 

[ciranda]

Your dude is 43rd in the rankings. Not bad I guess, but there are six French, five Belgian, five Danish, five Italian and four Dutch riders higher in the rankings among others. France and Denmark, the two strongest teams (?), were apparently not present at the Trofeo Karlsberg, the race where Dunbar did best.

Ruudz0r: how and why do you follow fourteen year old cyclists?

 

[sponsor]

Surprise in a positive or negative way?

Good way for now.
I guess the correlation between winning juniors and winning 23 year old pros is rather low.

 

[Ruudz0r]

Your dude is 43rd in the rankings. Not bad I guess, but there are six French, five Belgian, five Danish, five Italian and four Dutch riders higher in the rankings among others. France and Denmark, the two strongest teams (?), were apparently not present at the Trofeo Karlsberg, the race where Dunbar did best.

Ruudz0r: how and why do you follow fourteen year old cyclists?

The ranking does not say that much, Dunbar himself rode not many events.

I play a cycling game where you have to scout riders and can buy them for your team. Most of the time they get bought around age 16-18 but sometimes a little earlier. So I kinda follow as much as possible , + I just like it started with just following pro cycling and at a certain moment increased that with U23 (which I also needed for a game) and then I started to following junior cycling nad now i kinda follow everything!

 

[Jagartrott]

Another cyclist dying. 18 years old...
http://www.directvelo.com/actualite/37057-igor-decraene-est-mort.html

 

[Ruudz0r]

Terrible news RIP

 

[Inquitus]

Kristjan Kumar winner of Trefeo Karlsberg popped for EPO

http://lagazettedessports.wordpress.com/archives/a-18-ans-kristjan-kumar-positif-a-lepo/

http://www.uci.ch/mm/Document/News/...141009ADRVProvisionalSuspensionEN_English.pdf

 

[Wallenquist]

Season is coming so maybe it's a time to bump this thread ?
Recently i've updated my blog with some reviews of races across last months. If you are preparing a team for The 2015 Junior Cycling Game it may be worth reading

In addidtion i've just completed my junior ranking for 2014:

1. Lennard Kämna (Germany)

2. Magnus Bak Klaris (Denmark)

3. Rayane Bouhanni (France)

4. Edoardo Affini (Italy)

5. Erlend Blikra (Norway)

6. Alexander Vlasov (Russia)

7. Adrien Costa (USA)

8. William Barta (USA)

9. Pavel Sivakov (Russia)

10. Enzo Wouters (Belgium)

You can find more here: http://cyclingu19.blogspot.com/p/ranking.html
Feel free to read and comment

 

[Wallenquist]

And we are finally back with racing in junior category!

In the shadow of elite race, Kuurne Bruxelles Kuurne for juniors took place today.
Dutchman Yannick Detant won ahead of two Frenchmen: Mathieu Rigollot and Alain Riou. Actually there was only one Belgian in top ten which is pretty surprising.

Seems like some of the big names missed the crucial attack as Eenkhoorn, Sivakov and Buellens all finished ahead of the peleton but still lost over two minutes to the eight leaders.

There was also a strong attack in final kilometers from two Danish guys Andreas Nielsen and Maximillian Hoffman from Team Pythonpro.com but they didn't manage to join the leading eight.

Full results are here

 

[Wallenquist]

We had Paris Roubaix for juniors today. Dutchies showed impressive form by taking first and second place. Bram Welten won ahead of Pascal Eenkhoorn. Belgian Stan Dewulf was third and his teammate, Jasper Philipsen was fourth and first from a bigger group.

Dutchies have won all uci rated races for juniors this season except Trofeo Citta di Loano. Great start of the season.

If interested, you can read more about Paris Roubaix for juniors on my blog.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

There was a time i would get excited about that. But usually it just means they hit their top earlier than other nations cyclists. Little room for progress when they turn pro

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

We had Paris Roubaix for juniors today. Dutchies showed impressive form by taking first and second place. Bram Welten won ahead of Pascal Eenkhoorn. Belgian Stan Dewulf was third and his teammate, Jasper Philipsen was fourth and first from a bigger group.

They broke "our" winning streak!

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

There was a time i would get excited about that. But usually it just means they hit their top earlier than other nations cyclists. Little room for progress when they turn pro

This. Not sure what's wrong with dutch cycling. How can they all be so good that young?
I doubt other nations have worse training at their age?

 

[RobKernow]

A few thoughts:

The GB team is selected for track success. The road races are usually 70-100km, whereas on the continent they are 100+
Like the french team they tend not to be familiar with road team tactics.

The Irish had 1 good rider last year. GB generally has 3-4.
The french have 20-30 of the similar ability.

But often these guys are "better" than their peers because they are more physically mature and have already been riding 10+ years.

There is still potentially 12 months between the oldest junior 2 and the youngest.
Even the quality of kit varies hugely; and the access to training facilities and coaching.
where does education fit into the equation?

For sure some nations (and individuals) have a PED issue.

The 2 years after junior often produce the biggest changes is athletic potential.

 

[Wallenquist]

Re: Re:

There was a time i would get excited about that. But usually it just means they hit their top earlier than other nations cyclists. Little room for progress when they turn pro

This. Not sure what's wrong with dutch cycling. How can they all be so good that young?
I doubt other nations have worse training at their age?

Really depends. Some like Kelderman or Van der Poel were great at juniors and confirmed their talents. Some like Slik or Havik are, let's say, quite avarge. No matter how good Welten and Eenkhoorn will ride in juniors it won't determine their further career.

 

[Bushman]

Re: Re:

There was a time i would get excited about that. But usually it just means they hit their top earlier than other nations cyclists. Little room for progress when they turn pro

This. Not sure what's wrong with dutch cycling. How can they all be so good that young?
I doubt other nations have worse training at their age?

Really depends. Some like Kelderman or Van der Poel were great at juniors and confirmed their talents. Some like Slik or Havik are, let's say, quite avarge. No matter how good Welten and Eenkhoorn will ride in juniors it won't determine their further career.

Shouldn't Van der Poel actually confirm his promise before we conclude that he is a promising talent who confirmed his potential?

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Re: Re:

Shouldn't Van der Poel actually confirm his promise before we conclude that he is a promising talent who confirmed his potential?

Van Der Poel is the reigning world champion CX with the elites........

(also, despite having the age of a first year espoir, he already rode with the best in the Ardennes stage in the Tou of Belgium and he won a 1.1 race)

 

[lemon cheese cake]

Re: Re:

Shouldn't Van der Poel actually confirm his promise before we conclude that he is a promising talent who confirmed his potential?

Van Der Poel is the reigning world champion CX with the elites........

(also, despite having the age of a first year espoir, he already rode with the best in the Ardennes stage in the Tou of Belgium and he won a 1.1 race)

Ronde van Limburg. I get confusex between that and the Volta Limburg, so it might be that even.

 

[Bushman]

Re: Re:

Shouldn't Van der Poel actually confirm his promise before we conclude that he is a promising talent who confirmed his potential?

Van Der Poel is the reigning world champion CX with the elites........

(also, despite having the age of a first year espoir, he already rode with the best in the Ardennes stage in the Tou of Belgium and he won a 1.1 race)

I know, I'm not saying that he so far hasn't lived up to his potential, but the kid is, what, 19 years old? That is way too early to conclude anything.

I know he is one of the best cyclocrossers already and I watched the WC, but this is primarily a road forum.

 

[Bye Bye Bicycle]

From this point of view Sven Nys also had a disappointing (road racing) career...

 

[Bushman]

Yes that is totally what I am saying. Spot on.

I dont understand why you would intentionally completely miss my point your case, buddy