blackcat said:
tennis has moved beyond laver and these talents.
the future players in the female and male ranks, has moved to more than this laver/federer naturals.
men need to be well over 6 foot, the taller the better, and have brilliant court movement. the top 3 players, are all the best defenders, and can switch to attack. that requires less genes for coordination and fine motor hand eye. and more to explosivity like monfils.
one of the daughters of the pedo from australia gavin hopper won some international jnr tourney as a 12yo, but she was always gonna be 5'3" and not endowed with athleticism like a gymnast. the amanda koetzer era in tennis was over. (note her old man coached koetzer)
genetics as a key plank in future performance in sport, have receded to a degree. with the division of labour in professional sport, imo doping is the number one performance metric.
Your are missing the statistical side again. One still has to perform at first before the dope. That is all about genetics. Sure in a clean sporting world, Roger Federer wins the genetic game for tennis, but the guys behind him still had a chance to at a bare minimum make it.
You make it seem like you can just walk around, look at height and say a player can make it. I've seen tennis camps. In the 90s they'd get all the kids there Down Under. They were picky and IMO moronic. Very myopic view and outlook on finding talent. The ones they asked back were always the solid ones. They had technique and the least amount of skills needed to develop in the shortest amount of time. Basically the most advanced and closer to completion rate were their aim. Why? Because they were closer to reaching a high competitive level. Does this mean through sheer work rate someone with less genetic skills that translate to easier/quicker adoption of a solid game cannot reach a higher level? Of course not. Never has, in any sport. There are always degrees of skill even at pro levels.
But that is the point. Statistically you do have to be very good to make it to pro ranks. There is always room for separating players but your words make it look like any schmuck can pick up a racquet and with the right drugs will be a force. That's no true in a technical sport. I thought you'd remember that from what JV said the other day. It's about where the population falls and your relative position. The pros are all still really good.
But in terms of strength and speed you are right. Tennis is no longer a smaller mans game. Drugs do lower the reliance on technical skills TO A DEGREE. A small degree. It's more a war of attrition. But if you make unforced technical errors, that ain't the drugs fault. It's about minimising that component of your game whilst getting the endurance and extra speed/power. Take Andrew Illie versus The Scud. Junior Aussie rivals. One quite tall at 6'5", the other barely touching on 6 feet. I always thought he was struggling to hit 5'8" but the internet says differently. Either way, Illie's game, like Michael Chang's, was limited by size. Technically all there, but bigger guys like the Scud had the reach and power advantage.
Also look at the age of the tennis players. If you're not playing at a high level before 18 you won't make it to the highest levels. To get to that point the skill base had to be there. From then on in a doping sense, that is what you build on. Doping can raise your game physiologically with extended stamina, more power etc by mitigating the need to commit less errors or actually technically improve by a lot to match someone like Federer etc. Put it this way...no sane person here would make a case for Djokovic being clean would they? But of all the players to be no.1 other than Federer, he is technically the most complete. That is why I think he is world no.1. Yes because he dopes well, but so do Nadal and Murray. However his whole broad spectrum skill set is better.
So is doping the no.1 performance metric? Yes because Tennis has a doping problem and it's allowed guys like Nadal to make a mockery of the sport. But to get there you need skill. No doubt. In tennis at least because people start young the skill has to be there. Say what you want about Agassi but at 15 he was always going to make it. Take Australia's no.1 male Bernard Tomic. I heard he was packing on a lot of muscle at the end of 2012. Will take the Murray route. Get on the gear, get the extra power and boosts to up his current game and then use his superior technical skills to beat the guys who are now stopping him. Actually he is a junior Djokovic. Potential only limited by willingness to dope. Contrast with someone like Del Potro. Can win a random Slam by a technical player having issues, but won't win consistently. Big guy, gets a lot from his size BUT is limited. The technically gifted guy who is 6'-6'3" will be the long term winner.
So yes your points were good, but only in the sense that doping has only eliminated one genetic sample. That being the guys 5'10 and under. A Michael Chang type player would never make it anymore. Then again that would be obvious by 18 given the lack of height. With women? They're all over the place. So many female world no.1s the last decade. Henin was 5'6 maybe 5'7'. She still flogged the 6 foot tall women. The mens game definitely has a barrier to entry determinate on genetics...height and reach. Faster shorter guy can't do enough. Doping stopped that because it made the bigger guys faster, upped their power and above all INCREASED their stamina/endurance.