JV talks, sort of

[ElChingon]

Who believes JV could have won the tour in a clean peloton?

I do believe he'd be in a winning position, holding yellow with two stages to go, no one with in 2 minutes and only flat stages to go.

Then, the inevitable <bad luck> (you can insert your version of the bad luck), and he's out of le Tour and the 2nd place dude wins it!

Some people are destined to win, while others leave it to luck to win, and JV had crap luck at le Tour.

 

[Galic Ho]

Who believes JV could have won the tour in a clean peloton?

Not JV. Said himself he has a high VO2max, just can't rip out 85% of that at the end of 5-6 hours in the saddle.

Sure there are other factors like recovery over 3 weeks and he supposedly has a naturally high crit level, which would be a big bonus, BUT that doesn't change the fact if you can't push a high FTP for 40-60 mins day in day out up the final HC climb, you ain't gonna win.

 

[Galic Ho]

is hesjedal really a tdf podium calibre? i think he will podium this year.

Assumptions about Purito need to be made. Was Purito in the Giro superior to Purito in the Vuelta from last year? If he was equal, then yes, it's possible Hesjedal could podium or be close.

We have a couple of tiers:

Tier 1: Contador and Froome

Tier 2: Valverde, Purito, Evans, Hesjedal, Schleck (I think he will podium and shock everyone...well I hope he does)

Tier 3: JVDB, Van Garderene, Quintana, a Garmin boy (Talansky or Martin), Porte, Rolland, Voeckler

Tier 4: The clean boys. Taaramae is my pick for first clean rider. Okay and the mediocre dopers who aren't that grand.

By clean boys I mean guys I don't find suspicious. Sorry to mention Garmin in the above part...but yeah, you win a GT over Purito who beat Froome in the Vuelta! Yeah!

The Tier 2 boys will decide the podium. Something always happens. A Tier 3 guy can make the top 5 if the Tier 2 or Tier 1 guys stuff up. So that means 2 out of 7 need to flop. Someone always does.

 

[Gregga]

Assumptions about Purito need to be made. Was Purito in the Giro superior to Purito in the Vuelta from last year? If he was equal, then yes, it's possible Hesjedal could podium or be close.

We have a couple of tiers:

Tier 1: Contador and Froome

Tier 2: Valverde, Purito, Evans, Hesjedal, Schleck (I think he will podium and shock everyone...well I hope he does)

Tier 3: JVDB, Van Garderene, Quintana, a Garmin boy (Talansky or Martin), Porte, Rolland, Voeckler

Tier 4: The clean boys. Taaramae is my pick for first clean rider. Okay and the mediocre dopers who aren't that grand.

By clean boys I mean guys I don't find suspicious. Sorry to mention Garmin in the above part...but yeah, you win a GT over Purito who beat Froome in the Vuelta! Yeah!

The Tier 2 boys will decide the podium. Something always happens. A Tier 3 guy can make the top 5 if the Tier 2 or Tier 1 guys stuff up. So that means 2 out of 7 need to flop. Someone always does.

Purito was far better on the Vuelta 2012, which was IMO much dirtier than the Giro, just because it's easier to dope when you ride in your home country (that's why the italians won il Giro non stop from 1998 to 2007) : BB logistic, avoiding OOC tests, everything is easier at home, except for the french
According to Vayer, the power levels were higher in the Vuelta than in the TdF, the 3 spanish made crazy climbs, poor Froomey

 

[Galic Ho]

Purito was far better on the Vuelta 2012, which was IMO much dirtier than the Giro, just because it's easier to dope when you ride in your home country (that's why the italians won il Giro non stop from 1998 to 2007) : BB logistic, avoiding OOC tests, everything is easier at home, except for the french
According to Vayer, the power levels were higher in the Vuelta than in the TdF, the 3 spanish made crazy climbs, poor Froomey

Well if that is the case, then it changes things or does it?

Nah I think they stay the same only that Hesjedal's odds go up a bit. Not much but a bit.

I did think the Vuelta was dirtier than the Giro last year. The Giro looked normal by comparison. Contador and Valverde after the rest day were flying. All three Spaniards canned Froome.

 

[Ferminal]

Pinot Tier 3.

 

[Galic Ho]

Pinot Tier 3.

Agreed. I was just watching the Pre Tour photos and forgot FDJ had Pinot. He can top 10 IMO.

JV had this to say today:

"This year I went with my gut and it was a hard, hard choice to get it down to the final team. But I went with instinct and with what has been our formula for success for the last eight or nine months of racing. We've won the USA Pro Cycling Challenge, Catalunya and Liège-Bastogne-Liège. In all of those races we won it on the basis of strength of the whole team. Of course one rider closed the deal, but each time we played an aggressive strategy and there were three, four or even five guys on the team could have won the race and then one did."

Okay. So they are aiming for chaos. Nice. But I don't buy the line they had 5 potential winners. They were looking for good opportunities and they presented themselves to the challenge and profited with the 'right' rider at the time.

Garmin generally has ONE rider in very good form. I think it might be Martin. But it could be Talanksy or Hesjedal. Hesjedal is the proven performer. Instinct says Martin, head says Hesjedal.

If Garmin have a Tour like 2011, the race will be at least interesting.

 

[Benotti69]

Agreed. I was just watching the Pre Tour photos and forgot FDJ had Pinot. He can top 10 IMO.

JV had this to say today:

Okay. So they are aiming for chaos. Nice. But I don't buy the line they had 5 potential winners. They were looking for good opportunities and they presented themselves to the challenge and profited with the 'right' rider at the time.

Garmin generally has ONE rider in very good form. I think it might be Martin. But it could be Talanksy or Hesjedal. Hesjedal is the proven performer. Instinct says Martin, head says Hesjedal.

If Garmin have a Tour like 2011, the race will be at least interesting.

Aiming for chaos over 3 weeks? how does that work?

They dont have any potential winners. Hesjedal look pathetic in the Giro. Martin if clean aint gonna beat the enhanced performances of Sky, Movistar, Katusha, Astana to name a few.

JV spewing the BS PR.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Aiming for chaos over 3 weeks? how does that work?

They dont have any potential winners. Hesjedal look pathetic in the Giro. Martin if clean aint gonna beat the enhanced performances of Sky, Movistar, Katusha, Astana to name a few.

JV spewing the BS PR.

This is the kind of chaos JV envisions:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3rZphEtzSM

 

[Benotti69]

This is the kind of chaos JV envisions:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3rZphEtzSM

He better take off the Argyle tinted specs as that is what Sky are going to be doing.

 

[Galic Ho]

Aiming for chaos over 3 weeks? how does that work?

They dont have any potential winners. Hesjedal look pathetic in the Giro. Martin if clean aint gonna beat the enhanced performances of Sky, Movistar, Katusha, Astana to name a few.

JV spewing the BS PR.

True.

Hence why I said my bet was Martin is their guy.

JV said the aim was to cause chaos. It might work and make it interesting. He did also say the chance of winning was very, very marginal. Slim to no chance. But definitely top 10 material on the team. Who is the question?

 

[DirtyWorks]

True.

Hence why I said my bet was Martin is their guy.

JV said the aim was to cause chaos. It might work and make it interesting. He did also say the chance of winning was very, very marginal. Slim to no chance. But definitely top 10 material on the team. Who is the question?

IMHO, Martin's win at LBL(right?) needed Ryder/Argyle up the road putting intense pressure on the sharp end of the race. That's not going to happen over three weeks, but some of those stages could work out similarly for JV's team.


Meanwhile, his use of the word chaos suggests to me that Argyle will sell his workers for most of the race to other teams.

 

[Dr. Maserati]

Agreed. I was just watching the Pre Tour photos and forgot FDJ had Pinot. He can top 10 IMO.

JV had this to say today:



Okay. So they are aiming for chaos. Nice. But I don't buy the line they had 5 potential winners. They were looking for good opportunities and they presented themselves to the challenge and profited with the 'right' rider at the time.

Garmin generally has ONE rider in very good form. I think it might be Martin. But it could be Talanksy or Hesjedal. Hesjedal is the proven performer. Instinct says Martin, head says Hesjedal.

If Garmin have a Tour like 2011, the race will be at least interesting.

I agree - but to the blue, this year why can't it be both?

As noted Garmin don't really have an overall winner who can outmatch Froome/Contador, but as you noted Martin is on form and Ryder has shown previously he can last 3 weeks, which I am not sure DM can do.

Their tactic is simple, attempt to use both to dislodge one of the favorites, whichever of the Garmin riders falters first will be used for long breaksaways/stage wins and the other to attempt top 5.

 

[IzzyStradlin]

Looks like the best bet for Garmin will be to keep 2-3 riders within 5 minutes of GC and then try and get aggressive in breaks during week 3.

I hope we see some real racing, but this could turn into the 2006 Giro pretty quickly.

 

[Microchip]

...JV said the aim was to cause chaos. It might work and make it interesting. He did also say the chance of winning was very, very marginal. Slim to no chance….

I’m almost regretful that he was so honest. Not that he should intentionally give the wrong impression, but it sounds so defeated! They’ve gotta do like Djokovich, Nadal & Company and say “I’m feeling great!!! This is the best I’ve felt!!!” That’s a psychological advantage. No need to go into the details.

 

[Galic Ho]

I agree - but to the blue, this year why can't it be both?

As noted Garmin don't really have an overall winner who can outmatch Froome/Contador, but as you noted Martin is on form and Ryder has shown previously he can last 3 weeks, which I am not sure DM can do.

Their tactic is simple, attempt to use both to dislodge one of the favorites, whichever of the Garmin riders falters first will be used for long breaksaways/stage wins and the other to attempt top 5.

I hadn't thought about trying both. That is a good point. The uncertainty with Dan Martin is his ability to last. I thought last year he might be up to the task. He wasn't. This year he is a lot better though. Performing where I'd expected he'd get to eventually.

So yeah Dr, your notion is sound. Try both and whoever falters, go with them for the breaks. Garmin have a lot of options for breaks. They always have. This year they also don't have Tyler to worry about.

 

[Galic Ho]

I’m almost regretful that he was so honest. Not that he should intentionally give the wrong impression, but it sounds so defeated! They’ve gotta do like Djokovich, Nadal & Company and say “I’m feeling great!!! This is the best I’ve felt!!!” That’s a psychological advantage. No need to go into the details.

Jv did say he was following his instincts this year. I really like Tyler Farrar, but leaving him and Van Summeren out is a wise move. Play to your strengths. Go into breaks, race hard and with their strength they should get at least one or two stage wins and a top 10. That'd be a great Tour result.

 

[Galic Ho]

This is the kind of chaos JV envisions:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3rZphEtzSM

Hahahaha. I love that. But that will be the kind of chaos he fears. Gotta remember, it's all clean these days isn't it?

Good to see Ryo is commenting on those videos. Good ol drunkensailor112. He's on quite a few videos commenting.

 

[Galic Ho]

IMHO, Martin's win at LBL(right?) needed Ryder/Argyle up the road putting intense pressure on the sharp end of the race. That's not going to happen over three weeks, but some of those stages could work out similarly for JV's team.


Meanwhile, his use of the word chaos suggests to me that Argyle will sell his workers for most of the race to other teams.

We will find out. If they win a stage I expect JV to come on here and at least look at what people are saying. Selling his riders as workers for other teams?

Well I haven't heard anything about that in recent times other than the talk back in 2009 when Garmin supposedly stopped Hincapie getting yellow. But that was complicated. All I remember from last year was Garmin riders falling all the time and Farrar copping a lot of unnecessary flak for it when it wasn't his fault (most of the time).

 

[DirtyWorks]

How is it possible to have logical discourse when this bifurcated position is pre-established and worshipped?

It just isn't that simple. It used to be, I get that, but the equation is more complex these days.

I don't agree opinions are bifurcated and worshipped. Not at all. Even if you acknowledge the likelihood that your team is getting destroyed by dopers, it's out of your control. A great example of a virtuous circle.

When the SOL kicks in on the sporting fraud, we'll likely get a much more complete view of your team's competitors.

 

[DirtyWorks]

We will find out. If they win a stage I expect JV to come on here and at least look at what people are saying. Selling his riders as workers for other teams?

Well I haven't heard anything about that in recent times other than the talk back in 2009 when Garmin supposedly stopped Hincapie getting yellow. But that was complicated. All I remember from last year was Garmin riders falling all the time and Farrar copping a lot of unnecessary flak for it when it wasn't his fault (most of the time).

They can do both. Work in races has been bought/sold for a long time. Why not make some money working for a team that makes the event a very high priority? They are professionals after all.

 

[Galic Ho]

They can do both. Work in races has been bought/sold for a long time. Why not make some money working for a team that makes the event a very high priority? They are professionals after all.

Unless it's obvious, or dodgy looking, like Vino's LBL win, I doubt it would get mentioned around here.

But your logic does hold. Why not indeed!

 

[the sceptic]

Another day where garmin and french riders got killed

JV if you are serious about clean cycling then you have to say something about sky

 

[Fatclimber]

Another day where garmin and french riders got killed

JV if you are serious about clean cycling then you have to say something about sky

JV on twitter today:

@amcmanus: @Vaughters How much should general public read into 3rd fastest ascent up Ax, including faster than 2003 Lance? More complicated than that?

@Vaughters: @amcmanus I don't know, man... I just don't know.

 

[pmcg76]

JV on twitter today:

Sounds like even JV is having a hard time believing this. Will be interested to hear what Walsh has to say.