Kreuziger going down?

[Catwhoorg]

As I always say when a biopassport case, once its opened he is guilty.

The threshold is THAT steep.

Releasing his data to the 'armchair heamatologists' is a pretty bad PR move, as we can clearly see just how guilty.

Be nice if a real journalist ran plots like this.

 

[IzzyStradlin]

Be nice if a real journalist ran plots like this.

Google docs is best left to the experts.

 

[Race Radio]

I seem to remember earlier in the thread some tried to pretend that Ryder and Kreuziger's numbers were the same....even though we had not yet seen Kreuzingers numbers. Now we can compare them.

RH
Date 18.05.12. Haemoglobin 14.4
Date 27.05.12. Haemoglobin 14.1,

RK
Date 14.05.12. Haemoglobin 14.5
Date 25.05.12. Haemoglobin 16.1,

One goes down, the other goes up. Not sure why someone would pretend they are comparable, especially as we had not seen RK's crazy numbers yet.

 

[thehog]

Just FYI, PED abuse can lead to hypothyroidism.

The well researched topic is using anabolics has been shown to lead to hypothyroidism through a not-yet understood mechanism. I read this in bodybuilding forums as a consequence of Testosterone use. We know WADA's T/E ratio is ridiculously high, so, there's that.

The much less understood interaction is HGH use somehow leading to hypothyroidism.

Both Test and HGH are wide open for use to certain levels.

Finally, there appears to be some indication that thyroid treatment (T3) can lead to reductions in fat stores. The other side of that is it's widely posted to stay away from thyroid medications as a PED. This is cycling after all, so maybe someone has sorted out how to do it.

His documents points out that there is a family history of hyperthyroidism. It's a hereditary condition so I don't doubt that he has it. The next question whether the condition and medication caused the oddities in his blood system.

He's pushing *** uphill on this one as the UCI don't need to do a lot to prove their case.

Will he go the European court when he falls at CAS?

The handling errors is interesting as the UCI basically admits that this occured in some of the samples but don't really care as it wouldn't impact the results.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

I seem to remember earlier in the thread some tried to pretend that Ryder and Kreuziger's numbers were the same....even though we had not yet seen Kreuzingers numbers. Now we can compare them.

RH
Date 18.05.12. Haemoglobin 14.4
Date 27.05.12. Haemoglobin 14.1,

RK
Date 14.05.12. Haemoglobin 14.5
Date 25.05.12. Haemoglobin 16.1,

One goes down, the other goes up. Not sure why someone would pretend they are comparable, especially as we had not seen RK's crazy numbers yet.

To do a direct Hgb comparison, you'd be better describing Ryder as going up, then down. basically finishing level.

RH
Date 14.05.12. Haemoglobin 14.1
Date 18.05.12. Haemoglobin 14.4
Date 27.05.12. Haemoglobin 14.1

If, however, you compare the Hct, you get the following:

Date 14.05.12. Hct 42.3
Date 18.05.12. Hct 42.6
Date 27.05.12. Hct 43.4

A slowly increasing value.

Yes, the values are more significant with Roman. NO denying that. But to say Ryder went down based on those 2 chosen values is...

And for those of you who like data, here's when Ryder was tested vs when he was in the GC lead - ie never the day he gained GC leadership barring the final day TT, not after they won the TTT and only after he had been in pink for 3 days straight, right before he lost it again, or the day before he won it back.

ie the ideal times to not test high or positive. Very ... handy.

 

[Race Radio]

Yes, the values are more significant with Roman. NO denying that.

Yup, no denying it. Roman has far more variance. Not sure why anyone would pretend that the two were a valid comparison......especially when Roman's numbers had not yet been made public. Compared to Lance, Horner, even Landis, Roman's numbers don't look good. Compared to Ryder's they look crazy.

It appears some here have an unhinged obsession with JV and let that cloud what they write.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

Yup, no denying it. Roman has far more variance. Not sure why anyone would pretend that the two were a valid comparison......especially when Roman's numbers had not yet been made public. Compared to Lance, Horner, even Landis, Roman's numbers don't look good. Compared to Ryder's they look crazy.

It appears some here have an unhinged obsession with JV and let that cloud what they write.

Yes, you do seem to have cherry picked data that makes your post look dishonest. Not sure if your obsession with JV is unhinged, or even an obsession, but the data in your post is clearly manipulated to present something that is not the whole truth.

Hey! Just like JV!!

 

[Race Radio]

Yes, you do seem to have cherry picked data that makes your post look dishonest.

It appears you do not understand that point of my post. Some here had tried to equate Ryder's values with Roman's. Pretend they had similar large spikes. I provided numbers that showed this was not the case.....and you agreed. You can invent some grand conspiracy but I am discussing reality. Twisting it into something different makes you look dishonest.

As for the topic if Ryder's values were suspicious I will leave that for the experts and another thread

http://veloclinic.tumblr.com/post/58349990782/bmf-case-study-hesjedal-giro-2012

Hesjedal is the only GC contender we have with published blood data without any major red flags.....
.....a rider without clear evidence of doping on the blood data overall stays below what might be expected of a top clean rider (with one outlier performance) and no performances in the definitely doped range

You can continue that discussion here if you like

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?t=18531

 

[thehog]

Ignoring the obvious fact that Hesjedal doped most of his career, lied about it and only confessed when he was dropped into it publicly. By popular accounts he was also doping as mountain biker in his early career taking medals away from his fellow countrymen.

But of course when he won the biggest race of his career out of the blue and has never returned to the same form (since being found out) he magically stopped doping.

That's a good story for the Kreuzinger thread.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

Some here had tried to equate Ryder's values with Roman's. Pretend they had similar large spikes.

Nope. You're wrong. Good luck proving this was in fact the case.

All that was suggested was that Ryder - and Wiggins and Millar for that matter, all at Garmin - had increases in blood parameters towards the end of GTs where the expectation is the values go down. An anomaly. In that regard, they are similarly anomalous, despite being on different scales.

Your post's data looked deliberately incomplete.

 

[krelsekanina]

RET counting

A reticulocyte count can be obtained manually by placing a drop of blood on a slide, making a smear, staining it, and examining it under a microscope. The number of reticulocytes is compared to the total number of RBCs and is reported as a percentage of reticulocytes:

Reticulocyte (%) = [Number of Reticulocytes / Number of total Red Blood Cells] X 100

The degree of imprecision between reticulocyte counts performed on the same blood sample is dependent
on the total number of reticulocytes and the individual or individuals who perform the counts. If the
reticulocyte count is within the reference interval, the error may be as great as 25%, whereas the error
associated with a reticulocyte count of 5% or greater may be 10%. In general, the error will decrease as
the uncorrected reticulocyte count increases.

 

[sniper]

Ignoring the obvious fact that Hesjedal doped most of his career, lied about it and only confessed when he was dropped into it publicly. By popular accounts he was also doping as mountain biker in his early career taking medals away from his fellow countrymen.

But of course when he won the biggest race of his career out of the blue and has never returned to the same form (since being found out) he magically stopped doping.

That's a good story for the Kreuzinger thread.

This.

Some seem content with "no major red flags".

 

[Race Radio]

Nope. You're wrong. Good luck proving this was in fact the case.

All that was suggested was that Ryder - and Wiggins and Millar for that matter, all at Garmin - had increases in blood parameters towards the end of GTs where the expectation is the values go down. An anomaly. In that regard, they are similarly anomalous, despite being on different scales.

Your post's data looked deliberately incomplete.

Yeah, yeah, We get it..... everything is a conspiracy.

 

[the sceptic]

Ignoring the obvious fact that Hesjedal doped most of his career, lied about it and only confessed when he was dropped into it publicly. By popular accounts he was also doping as mountain biker in his early career taking medals away from his fellow countrymen.

But of course when he won the biggest race of his career out of the blue and has never returned to the same form (since being found out) he magically stopped doping.

That's a good story for the Kreuzinger thread.

I have to agree. It makes little sense how Hesjedal could beat someone who we know was doping with blood bags in the 3rd week of a GT.

That for me is the real issue here and what needs explaining. Not comparing the blood values of Hesjedal and Kreuziger.

 

[hrotha]

I have to agree. It makes little sense how Hesjedal could beat someone who we know was doping with blood bags in the 3rd week of a GT.

That for me is the real issue here and what needs explaining. Not comparing the blood values of Hesjedal and Kreuziger.

Why would we throw the hard data out of the window?

I think Hesjedal probably doped, but your first point only makes sense if we assume the advantage doping provides is a universal constant. Which isn't the case.

 

[Race Radio]

It is very odd that Roman has some of his highest Hct/Hgb readings of the year in the 3rd week of the Giro and the Tour. That can be explained by a bag of blood......but those Retics make no sense. They are consistently high, with the occasional crash. What is he using to do this?

I suppose he could be very consistently microdosing EPO. Or he has some new, un testable EPO......but with Retro testing this should be testable in the near future so if this is the case I expect we will find out.

It would be very interesting to see RK's numbers from 2013 and 2014.

 

[the sceptic]

Why would we throw the hard data out of the window?

I think Hesjedal probably doped, but your first point only makes sense if we assume the advantage doping provides is a universal constant. Which isn't the case.

But we have been told that cycling was in a new era in 2012. Kreuziger appears to have come straight out of the old era though, and it's not like he stood out like a sore thumb in that giro.

 

[Race Radio]

Why would we throw the hard data out of the window?

I think Hesjedal probably doped, but your first point only makes sense if we assume the advantage doping provides is a universal constant. Which isn't the case.

This is always the big question. How much of a performance is talent and how much comes from a needle.

RK appears to be talented. He won Junior Worlds at 17. He could have been doping then but who knows. He dad was also a "Pro".....But he also started working with Ferrari when he was only 20 years old

He showed a willingness to embrace the dark side of the sport at an early age.

 

[thehog]

But we have been told that cycling was in a new era in 2012. Kreuziger appears to have come straight out of the old era though, and it's not like he stood out like a sore thumb in that giro.

New generation Kreuzinger was beaten by a life long liar/doper, old generation Hesjedal who suddenly went clean and won the Giro (calibration issues withstanding).

 

[sniper]

...
He showed a willingness to embrace the dark side of the sport at an early age.

so did Hesjedal, but then Ryder met the right people who pulled him out of darkness and made him see the light. Not only went clean after previously doping, also won the giro while at it. That's two miracles wrapped in one!

Yeah, yeah, We get it..... everything is a conspiracy.

that's just a strawman. It's strange to see you on the defense wrt Ryder. You must admit the odds are heavily stacked against him having won the Giro clean.
While Kreuziger needs to go down, you should be equally welcoming of people questioning Hesjedal.

 

[DirtyWorks]

The next question whether the condition and medication caused the oddities in his blood system..

Here's a small study that might inform.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3915449/

If I'm reading it right inducing hypothyroidism is another kind of oxygen vector doping. Please correct me if that's not right. Turning lemons into lemonade?

This puts the NYT article about the endocrinologist associated with elite track and field under greater suspicion?

 

[Race Radio]

so did Hesjedal, but then Ryder met the right people who pulled him out of darkness and made him see the light. Not only went clean after previously doping, also won the giro while at it. That's two miracles wrapped in one!

that's just a strawman. It's strange to see you on the defense wrt Ryder. You must admit the odds are heavily stacked against him having won the Giro clean.
While Kreuziger needs to go down, you should be equally welcoming of people questioning Hesjedal.

Very good point on Ryder. The guy started young.

If you look at my posts you will see that I was not trying to cherry pick but was comparing the tests results from RK and RH that were from dates that were closest to each other. Some tried to twist this into some weird cover up conspiracy when clearly my goal was to compare like numbers and show their changes from the same time the race were significantly different.

As for Ryder I can see both sides. Mike's (Veloclinc) analysis of his values and output is very good but it is hard to not question his sudden, late career, GT victory.....but that is a topic for another thread.

On the RK topic, it is interesting to compare his numbers with others we have. Ryder, Wiggins, Armstrong, Landis, Rassmusen, Horner. Roman's are the most questionable. They compare with landis' in 2006. Not Normal

 

[Race Radio]

I haven't read it yet, but here's a small study that might inform.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3915449/

Mike addressed this on Cyclingtips.

“The general gist is that, I guess from the perspective of his story about this being caused by the hypothyroidism and the treatment, I agree with the UCI on that one,” he said.

“I don’t really see that argument being very compelling because the study that his experts pointed to, they are talking about a change in reticulocyte count in terms of treating hypothyroidism. However that’s going from complete lack of thyroid function to being fully treated.

“In that study, you just see the subjects going from a low reticulocyte count to a normal one, so it is just normalizing the reticulocyte count.

“In Kreuziger’s case, what you are doing is going from a normal value to a very elevated one, and a persistently elevated one. It is not like he ever went from zero thyroid function to full blown treatment. Basically what you see in the labs is that he was being treated, maybe at times inadequately, but the jumps are going from 50 to 75 to 100 on his dosing. So it is not like he went from zero to 100, it was just incremental steps.

“In that case, I don’t find the thyroid issue very convincing. It can certainly have effects on the biological parameters, but I don’t find it is the explanation for his reticulocyte count.”

The UCI also had a detailed dismantling of the theory but I do not think it is public.

 

[Catwhoorg]

It says something when RK's numbers are worse than Horner's....

 

[thehog]

It says something when RK's numbers are worse than Horner's....

What's constitutes "worse"?

That being the case, why wasn't Horner flagged?