Benotti69 said:
so you expect Contador to be out of cycling for denial and denial and more denial....just like Landis?
i dont imagine Contador's brother is gonna take it lying down knowing what they do about the corruption in pro cycling as they probably benefitted from it at some stage themselves.
I imagine Landis expected better(or worse from a clean perspective) from UCI like they did with Armstrong and that is what angered him most.
To the bolded: yes, that's my point.
As for Contador, it's interesting to compare different people getting 'blacklisted' or not. Let's go through a few:
2006 Tour: Landis - was the first TdF champion to be caught doping and not covered up or dismissed or TUEd or whatever in the era of media scrutiny about such things. Whereas most riders caught in a leading/winning position of a more minor race (read: any other race) would serve their time and come back, it's the TOUR that is being sullied. It doesn't matter to anyone in the high levels of pro cycling that he doped, but the PR fallout from the fact that everyone KNOWS that he doped is poisonous for rehiring him. And this was just after Puerto, which was supposed to give the perception that the suspected dopers were out of the Tour. Bad time to test positive, and a bad thing to be perceived as the first Tour winner to test positive.
2007 Tour: Vino - 33 years old, wasn't in the lead, tested positive, was kicked out, denied, kept quiet, retired, unretired, had a team that had been built around him, got a ride with said team.
2007 Tour: Rasmussen - 33 years old, was in the lead, didn't test positive, was kicked out, denied, didn't keep quiet, didn't retire, didn't have a team that was built around him, didn't get a ride with a team, and finally built a (much lower level than vino's) team around him.
The difference between these cases is interesting, I think one key difference is that Rasmussen was going to win. Having that cloud of suspicion a year after Landis would have been more crippling from a PR perspective than the embarrassing way it proceeded anyway. And because he didn't have a tailor-made team (and because he's a bit of a loose cannon and eccentric personality), he didn't get a ride and Vino did.
2008 Tour: Kohl - 26 years old, tested positive, didn't deny, didn't keep quiet, retired because he knew that he wouldn't get a ride after speaking out. This was based on the experiences of Jaschke, Sinkiewitz, etc.
Now, 2010 Tour: Contador - 27 years old, won the Tour, tested positive (a little bit), denied... and what?
A few things in his favour for returning:
- his obviously huge talent (beyond Floyd who had won very little before 2006, and Ras in 2007 and Kohl in 2008)
- the fact that cycling could handle his DQ better than it did in 2006 (I mean, I think the Armstrong story is bigger news, making this seem like less of a big deal than it would have in 2006)
- his age, he's got plenty of good years left even after a ban
- the fact that he'll not squeal on anyone else
- the fact that his positive did not come on the day where he did one of the most memorable rides in Tour history
In summary, the only similarity between Contador and Landis is that they won the Tour and tested positive. I think blacklistings happen for much more PR-related reasons, and that Contador's positive, although obviously not great (I'd wager the UCI kept it quiet for a month because they were trying to figure out a way to keep it permanently under wraps), was not as big a deal as Floyd's, or even Ras' DQ in 2007, due to a number of contextual factors. So yes, I expect him to ride again.