Liège-Bastogne-Liège: April 28th, 2019

[Bardamu]

Re: Re:

Fuglsang doesn't have to attack before RaF if Astana sets the pace on the climbs. They have the strongest team. And we know how they can turn stage races into brutal marathons.

They could reduce the peloton to as little as 10-15 riders before Faucons if they wanted to.

Movistar thought they had the strongest team in 2016, and all their guys blew up (around the RAF, iirc) and Bala didn’t make it to the finish. The only other team that worked was Quickstep, and Martin blew up too (I think Alaf was also riding that year?)

In 2013, BMC thought they had the strongest team, but they ended up blowing early too, and Gilbert was isolated while Garmin sent Martin up the road for the win on Hesjedal’s wheel.

True, but Valverde, Gilbert, Martin wanted to keep the pack together to win. Fuglsang has to attack from afar, so he doesn't need his team as late in the race as the others did.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Fuglsang doesn't have to attack before RaF if Astana sets the pace on the climbs. They have the strongest team. And we know how they can turn stage races into brutal marathons.

They could reduce the peloton to as little as 10-15 riders before Faucons if they wanted to.

Movistar thought they had the strongest team in 2016, and all their guys blew up (around the RAF, iirc) and Bala didn’t make it to the finish. The only other team that worked was Quickstep, and Martin blew up too (I think Alaf was also riding that year?)

In 2013, BMC thought they had the strongest team, but they ended up blowing early too, and Gilbert was isolated while Garmin sent Martin up the road for the win on Hesjedal’s wheel.

True, but Valverde, Gilbert, Martin wanted to keep the pack together to win. Fuglsang has to attack from afar, so he doesn't need his team as late in the race as the others did.

He doesn’t need his team, but he does need to make sure others have less teammates. If all the Astana riders are burned out after Redoute, but Sky or Movistar or UAE or QS or MTS or even Bora still have 2 or 3 guys each, then Fuglsang has no path to victory, because if that group comes together into Liege then Fuglsang finishes 6th in the sprint at best.

 

[Bolder]

Weather could be a big factor. Meteo now says single digits at start, warming to a balmy 10, with some kind of precipitation likely. Yuk.

 

[Faserr]

Rainy, cold, a lot of wind (should be a lot of tailwind at the last part of the race). Perhaps we see some long range attacks.

 

[DFA123]

Rainy, cold, a lot of wind (should be a lot of tailwind at the last part of the race). Perhaps we see some long range attacks.

Politt's on the start list isn't he?

 

[Mayomaniac]

Rainy, cold, a lot of wind (should be a lot of tailwind at the last part of the race). Perhaps we see some long range attacks.

Wellens weather

 

[Faserr]

Rainy, cold, a lot of wind (should be a lot of tailwind at the last part of the race). Perhaps we see some long range attacks.

Politt's on the start list isn't he?

Yes, but he is too heavy. Perhaps he goes in a group "just for fun" but I think it is impossible to get a result.
Wellens, Nibali, Schachmann are guys who should attack early.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Really I don't see why Fuglsang wouldn't be able to wait for the RaF?

Earlier he attacks, more tired Alaphilippe will be. So, if I were him, I would attack on La Redoute precisely, and then again on RaF if Alaphilippe is still in the mix, or another fast guy.
For me, Fuglsang is the strongest atm, but he needs to make it really hard to drop Ala. He won't do that attacking only on RaF.

 

[TomLPC]

Re:

Is tao Geoghan Hart riding?

Yes

 

[Laplaz]

Don't get why Roglic isn't riding this

 

[Anderis]

EF have an interesting team for this. They already had more riders in the finale than any other team at AGR and here they'll bring all of them reinforced by Martinez and Kangert. Shame that Uran is injured but I guess it's sheer probability that you can't have all riders in the team healthy and in good form.

Not sure they'll actually achieve a very good result, though. They had the most riders in reduced pelotons in all 3 Ardennes races in 2017, yet their best individual result throughout the campagne was Woods' 9th at LBL.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Re:

Don't get why Roglic isn't riding this

Maybe too close to Romandie, which starts tuesday.

 

[josemoreira]

EF have an interesting team for this. They already had more riders in the finale than any other team at AGR and here they'll bring all of them reinforced by Martinez and Kangert. Shame that Uran is injured but I guess it's sheer probability that you can't have all riders in the team healthy and in good form.

Not sure they'll actually achieve a very good result, though. They had the most riders in reduced pelotons in all 3 Ardennes races in 2017, yet their best individual result throughout the campagne was Woods' 9th at LBL.

Woods was second last year, and most can be a contender this year, at least for the podium. Altough he hasn't performed well in Amstel and Fleche, but last year was the same thing. And like you said, he has a very decent support. He has his chances.

 

[The Hegelian]

Other than the two obvious big faves, I think A.Yates will be in the mix. Good podium bet.

But French-Bala-Mark II for the win. What are his odds? Must be just about an unbackable favorite. The only thing that can stop him is 'one week too long to hold form.'

 

[Jagartrott]

Re:

Other than the two obvious big faves, I think A.Yates will be in the mix. Good podium bet.

With rain, wind and temperatures of about 6-7 °C, on a 250+ km course?
Doubt it.

 

[Anderis]

Re:

Woods was second last year, and most can be a contender this year, at least for the podium. Altough he hasn't performed well in Amstel and Fleche, but last year was the same thing. And like you said, he has a very decent support. He has his chances.

Last year he was looking good in Amstel. 20th may not seem like a great result but he was showing good legs, responding to attacks etc. He was like around 10th strongest rider in the race but just failed to make the decisive split and then finished last in the sprint from the next group. It's just the race doesn't have hard enough climbs for a rider like him to do much more. He is too weak on flat terrain.
This year his form seems worse and I think the new route is worse for him than the previous one but I hope he indeed surprises me with another podium performance. It's kind of funny how he never does well in La Fleche- a race everybody thought would suit him the most in the whole calendar when he was in his early pro days.

 

[Valv.Piti]

When the danish expert on feltet.dk actually has a Dane as a favourite for monument you know its pretty serious. I cant wait for this race after the route change and hopefully a fourth act of the Alaf vs Fugelsong matchup.

 

[Laplaz]

I'm pretty sure it won't only be between Fuglsang and Alaphilippe. After RAF I think there will still be 5-6 riders. And then reduced sprint or late attack by someone.

 

[armchairclimber]

I do quite fancy a Jungels or Schachattack type finale ... trying to hold off a small group.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Re:

I do quite fancy a Jungels or Schachattack type finale ... trying to hold off a small group.

Dumoulin would be the kind of rider who could do that.
Why isn't Roglic riding this one?

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Other than the two obvious big faves, I think A.Yates will be in the mix. Good podium bet.

It's difficult to see him at 100% though after his crash at FW. Especially if the weather is cold miserable, all that road rash isn't going to be much fun. It's a shame if he doesn't recover though, because he's exactly the kind of rider who could gap everyone on one of the last climbs and hold on for the win.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I do quite fancy a Jungels or Schachattack type finale ... trying to hold off a small group.

Dumoulin would be the kind of rider who could do that.
Why isn't Roglic riding this one?

Roglic is riding Romandie.

 

[Climbing]

So... it's gonna be very bad weather...

 

[Salvarani]

Re:

So... it's gonna be very bad weather...

This Wellens atm

 

[The Hegelian]

Re: Re:

Other than the two obvious big faves, I think A.Yates will be in the mix. Good podium bet.

It's difficult to see him at 100% though after his crash at FW. Especially if the weather is cold miserable, all that road rash isn't going to be much fun. It's a shame if he doesn't recover though, because he's exactly the kind of rider who could gap everyone on one of the last climbs and hold on for the win.

Didn't think the crash was that bad.....perhaps you're right.

I suppose my point is that if he didn't crash, he probably would have been on or very close to the podium at FW, and coupled with his form in Spain and Italy, a natural favourite for LBL. So: definitely flying under the radar here.