Mental or random cycling statistics

[Netserk]

Valverde attacked at the bottom of Mont du Chat for no reason and was just lolling his way around the race generally.

Also, who are the other two comments in reference to?

He was weak on all climbs. If Dauphiné is such an important indicator, then there's no reason to suppose that Valverde would be able to contend the Tour in 2017.

Maybe there's no contradiction and you'd be able to synthesise the two cases, but that looks difficult to me. Maybe you'll concede that your old argument applies and that Valverde stood no chance in the 2017 Tour. Or maybe you can modify your previous argument or abandon it as you no longer believe in its strength. But you gotta pick one.

You advanced the importance of Dauphiné in relation to who would be the favourite for the 2014 Tour.

Your argument for 2014 seems to have implications for 2017 as well:

I think the tendencies changed when Sky took to the scene, and generally people were closer to their Tour level in the Dauphiné.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I just ran some simulations.

The results show him as the winner of the 2006 and 2017 Tours, the 2004, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2017 and 2018 Vueltas and the 2016 Giro.

Also Rio Olympics and 2003 and 2004 Worlds. And Lombardia 2014.

After some minor adjustments I obtained his victory in this year's Tour (by bonuses: after stomping Teddy a few times).

 

[tobydawq]

He was weak on all climbs. If Dauphiné is such an important indicator, then there's no reason to suppose that Valverde would be able to contend the Tour in 2017.

Maybe there's no contradiction and you'd be able to synthesise the two cases, but that looks difficult to me. Maybe you'll concede that your old argument applies and that Valverde stood no chance in the 2017 Tour. Or maybe you can modify your previous argument or abandon it as you no longer believe in its strength. But you gotta pick one.

You advanced the importance of Dauphiné in relation to who would be the favourite for the 2014 Tour.

Your argument for 2014 seems to have implications for 2017 as well:

Happy Olympics [[edited]]

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Claiming Valverde could have won the 2017 Tour sounds pretty mental to me, so I guess it does belong in this thread.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Claiming Valverde could have won the 2017 Tour sounds pretty mental to me, so I guess it does belong in this thread.

Not as mental as you and Netserk make it out to be IMO.

Also @Netserk, shouldn't we agree that this is torture enough? I have been brewing on a new avatar, and Im sick and tired of us having the same.

 

[tobydawq]

Claiming Valverde could have won the 2017 Tour sounds pretty mental to me, so I guess it does belong in this thread.

Taking the route and season into consideration, it isn't mental at all.

Porte was the only rider to have been arguably stronger than Valverde in the spring of that year.

 

[Netserk]

Not as mental as you and Netserk make it out to be IMO.

Also @Netserk, shouldn't we agree that this is torture enough? I have been brewing on a new avatar, and Im sick and tired of us having the same.

You can change when the OGRR begins, as agreed.

 

[Valv.Piti]

You can change when the OGRR begins, as agreed.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Taking the route and season into consideration, it isn't mental at all.

Porte was the only rider to have been arguably stronger than Valverde in the spring of that year.

Well maybe I just wasn't psychologically ready for Merckx Valverde to ever not be the greatest a Tour de France winner. I'll still maintain he wasn't physically ready either, and that thinking he could finally pull it off Cadel Evans style was nothing but a dream.

 

[pmcg76]

Do you have a good handle of muscle fibre distribution?

[[deleted]]

What's has muscle fibre distribution got to do with time-cuts?

[[deleted]]

 

[Squire]

Taking the route and season into consideration, it isn't mental at all.

Porte was the only rider to have been arguably stronger than Valverde in the spring of that year.

2017 was truly the one that got away. Froome was there for the taking. All sorts of second-rate contenders outclimbed Froome that race, who never had one road stage where he gained time on all the others. Only the prologue and the short TT at the end. And Valverde was TT-ing like a god that season.

I'm not a big believer in 2005 or 2006. Think he would have been severely out-time-trialed then.

 

[tobydawq]

@pmcg76- I think you're being unfair to sprinters because they have to find a line between being as fast as possible while still being able to go over the mountains quickly enough. And while climbing times skyrocketed this year, it seems quite unlikely that the sprinters would have elevated their climbing level accordingly. And yes, that does certainly have to do with fibre type distribution.

[[some material deleted]]

 

[tobydawq]

I think today was the first time ever that Mathieu and Wout started in a one-day race and they both failed to get a top 10.

 

[Squire]

I think today was the first time ever that Mathieu and Wout started in a one-day race and they both failed to get a top 10.

Elfstedenronde - Brugge 2018.

 

[tobydawq]

Elfstedenronde - Brugge 2018.

Damn.

Then my sources lied to me.

 

[RedheadDane]

This is more of a future prediction statistic.

What do you think is the hightest amount of TdF stage wins a rider could possibly get?

And will anyone be able to beat Pogacar's record?

(Yes, I'm just assuming he'll beat Cavendish', and I don't think he'll stop with 36.)

 

[hayneplane]

Anyone getting to 40 would be doing insanely well. Even that is a full decade averaging 4 stage wins each time which done just once is a phenomenal accomplishment let alone year after year after year.

 

[tobydawq]

This is more of a future prediction statistic.

What do you think is the hightest amount of TdF stage wins a rider could possibly get?

And will anyone be able to beat Pogacar's record?

(Yes, I'm just assuming he'll beat Cavendish', and I don't think he'll stop with 36.)

The most Tours raced is 18 I believe.

So 18*21 = 378.

 

[RedheadDane]

The most Tours raced is 18 I believe.

So 18*21 = 378.

Realistically-possible. Not mathematically-possible.

 

[Netserk]

The most Tours raced is 18 I believe.

So 18*21 = 378.

Maybe cycling will return to greatness in the future and the Tour will have 25+ stages in each edition.

 

[tobydawq]

Maybe cycling will return to greatness in the future and the Tour will have 25+ stages in each edition.

Just have 365 stages per edition.

 

[RedheadDane]

Velon with a rather interesting statistic:

There seem to be a theme.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Velon with a rather interesting statistic:

There seem to be a theme.

Three years ago, Vingegaard was holding Remco in his arms, but now he's all grown up.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Maybe cycling will return to greatness in the future and the Tour will have 25+ stages in each edition.

Honestly, why not? Has been done many times before, and ASO will make more money. Now, there's some suits and UCI and there's probably also Adam Hansen complaining as per usual, but I'd be down!

 

[RedheadDane]

Who would have won the BYR competitions in the ProSeries Stage races this year, if they were all U23 competitions?

Valenciana: Piganzoli (5th in official competition)
Oman: Kulset (3rd in official competition)
Algarve: Is U23 competition, Morgado won it
ToTA: Pellizzari (3rd in official competition)
Dunkerque: Donaldson (11th in official competiton)
Norway: Is U23 competition, Vacek won it
Baloise: Is U23 competition, Vacek won this one as well
Slovenia: Is U23 competition, Pellizzari won it
Wallonie: Hagenes (3rd in official competition)
Arctic: F. Christen (3rd in official competition)
Burgos: Poole (he actually won it)