I think it's 80% van Aert.
If van Aert should be too tired, finally, Fuglsang could win with his good Danish team because the route fits him like a glove, in my opinion. He's the current LBL and Lombardia winner (if I remember right, my result memory is very bad), at Strade he was strong but went too early alone. I don't believe in a bad form of his, he should be nearing his peak with the Giro coming. His finish at Flèche last year was quite something. He's my option in case the Tour riders should in fact be a bit tired.
If it turns out to be a complete climber's race Pogacar should have this, with his good sprint at the end and his time trial abilities for the last part. But what do I know about what Pogacar can do.
My climber's but not so very much climber's choice, if Pogacar is tired or rides for Roglic only, would be Woods, who, as a former runner, could be dealing well with a course that has hardly any pause. (Okay, honestly I don't know why I rate Woods highly for this. I just do.)
The Italians have quite some cards to play, if this becomes about team strenghts and tactics.
I would not really put it past Kwiatkowski, he's well suited to this race, I just can't see him getting past my favourites here. But prove me wrong, Michal!