Milan - San Remo 2018

[Gigs_98]

You know what really makes me happy? That after quickstep, a team able to absolutely light this race up, rode completely passively, their strongest finisher was Elia Viviani in 19th place, finishing dead last in the first chasing group.

 

[Screecher]

Re: Re:

The only 2 guys that can be genuinely happy with their performance today are Nibali and Ewan. Everyone else failed.

That's just silly! Sure in the purest sense only the winner and his team succeed and the rest fail, and how did Ewan escape your failure meter...he didn't win either.

Because his only chance to win was to wait for the sprint? And his team did a decent job protecting him and getting him into position into important climbs. Although i'm reading that he was disappointed to not win, but for someone with little experience in riding big classics he did a really good job.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Yeah, it's highly probable that Sagan could have followed Nibali comfortably. This is the Poggio, not Stelvio. But Nibali wouldn't have worked with him, given he had Colbrelli behind, so then Sagan would have had to go solo or drop back. Sending Oss or Burghardt (if he hadn't done that ridiculously pointless move at the bottom of the climb) to cover the attack would have been a nice move - put perhaps they genuinely couldn't have followed Nibali.

I don't think so. Nibali has such a poor sprint that Sagan would have towed him to the line, caught a little bit of air with 3-400 metres to go and then won the sprint anyway.

MSR 2012 proves that.

Well yeah, but that's basically going solo. And I'm not sure Sagan would have held off the bunch in the way that Nibali did; I would guess the other teams would get organised a lot quicker than they did, if it were Sagan off the front.

I agree that what he did was stupid though. Either go on the Poggio or stay hidden and wait for the sprint - gambling that it will come back together. Absolutely, under no circumstances, lead the peloton in the last 3km.

Nibali's sprint has improved in recent times, though. He somehow beat bala in one, and came 5th in a bunch sprint at san juan once. He is no Pozzo. I don't know if he'd have won, but Nibali would have just tucked himself in behind and then attacked with 1000-2000m to go

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

I don't think so. Nibali has such a poor sprint that Sagan would have towed him to the line, caught a little bit of air with 3-400 metres to go and then won the sprint anyway.

MSR 2012 proves that.

It was really dumb racing by Sagan but he probably didn't think a Poggio move would be successful.

Do not be so naive, they let go Nibali because they believed he have no chance anyway and will be catch (thanks god he won), do you think that they would let go Sagan? With Nibali? After what he did last year?
I do not think so

No, but last year it was very close that he was 'let' go - because nobody could follow him.

I think there was a headwind this year on the Poggio which could explain his being so passive. My point is that he might have made a similar attack to last year, got away alone, caught Nibali and then towed him to the line.

But the wind direction did not allow for that (that didn't matter for Nibali on the Poggio because he was paced by motobikes, by the way).

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

I don't think so. Nibali has such a poor sprint that Sagan would have towed him to the line, caught a little bit of air with 3-400 metres to go and then won the sprint anyway.

MSR 2012 proves that.

It was really dumb racing by Sagan but he probably didn't think a Poggio move would be successful.

Do not be so naive, they let go Nibali because they believed he have no chance anyway and will be catch (thanks god he won), do you think that they would let go Sagan? With Nibali? After what he did last year?
I do not think so

I agree with this and I also don't believe Nibali was a marked rider for this race.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Yeah, it's highly probable that Sagan could have followed Nibali comfortably. This is the Poggio, not Stelvio. But Nibali wouldn't have worked with him, given he had Colbrelli behind, so then Sagan would have had to go solo or drop back. Sending Oss or Burghardt (if he hadn't done that ridiculously pointless move at the bottom of the climb) to cover the attack would have been a nice move - put perhaps they genuinely couldn't have followed Nibali.

I don't think so. Nibali has such a poor sprint that Sagan would have towed him to the line, caught a little bit of air with 3-400 metres to go and then won the sprint anyway.

MSR 2012 proves that.

Well yeah, but that's basically going solo. And I'm not sure Sagan would have held off the bunch in the way that Nibali did; I would guess the other teams would get organised a lot quicker than they did, if it were Sagan off the front.

I agree that what he did was stupid though. Either go on the Poggio or stay hidden and wait for the sprint - gambling that it will come back together. Absolutely, under no circumstances, lead the peloton in the last 3km.

Nibali's sprint has improved in recent times, though. He somehow beat bala in one, and came 5th in a bunch sprint at san juan once. He is no Pozzo. I don't know if he'd have won, but Nibali would have just tucked himself in behind and then attacked with 1000-2000m to go

Well, I remember Valverde laughing a little embarassedly after that - he didn't know that less than three riders had come in before the favourites, so he didn't think there were any bonifications to sprint for. It was in the Giro two years ago.

He really hasn't become that fast.

 

[bassano]

Re: Re:

Thanks Nibali ...a nice bet and good few quid at great odds ....
I have him also for the Tour and the Worlds .....

As for Trentin costing Ewan the race ?/What a load of rubbish ..if anything Trentin out front helped Ewan get second as forced Matthews & others to chase while Ewan was sitting pretty saving energy ...

What odds did you get for today? Nice one!

Was like 50:1, I tired to put live bet on him after he started his Poggio Attack (just in case), but I did not sucseeded

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

Thanks Nibali ...a nice bet and good few quid at great odds ....
I have him also for the Tour and the Worlds .....

As for Trentin costing Ewan the race ?/What a load of rubbish ..if anything Trentin out front helped Ewan get second as forced Matthews & others to chase while Ewan was sitting pretty saving energy ...

What odds did you get for today? Nice one!

150/1

 

[MartinGT]

Re: Re:

Thanks Nibali ...a nice bet and good few quid at great odds ....
I have him also for the Tour and the Worlds .....

As for Trentin costing Ewan the race ?/What a load of rubbish ..if anything Trentin out front helped Ewan get second as forced Matthews & others to chase while Ewan was sitting pretty saving energy ...

What odds did you get for today? Nice one!

150/1

Sweeeeet

 

[deValtos]

Poggio ascent time 6:13 (Nibali)
Last year 5:55 (Sagan/Kwiat/Alap)
Record 5:46 (Fondriest/Jaja)

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Don't understand people saying Sagan was riding defensively, only thinking about Kwiatkoski.

This is a physical test. He got beat. Nibali moved faster than Oss, for longer. Sagan couldn't make it up either, when he tried. Trentin rode Sagan off his wheel. Sagan just didn't have it.

This wasn't about Sagan's decision making, and anyone who isn't bringing respect for the very physical reality that is racing.

Sagan probably should have (and could have) gone with Nibali when he attacked. Instead Sagan tried halfheartedly and undecided later and again on the descend. He then stopped chasing when he saw Kwiatkowski was in his wheel. Sagan certainly screwed up today. Either attack or wait for the sprint, the other options that he chose didn't make sense and in the end probably cost him unnecessary energy for the sprint.

I'll have to wait for a replay and watch the attack again, but my intuition says Sagan would have gone if he could have. And while I don't remember seeing him jump at all; sometimes you just see an acceleration that you know is beyond your capability. And Nibali's attack was just that.

On the chase, attacking out to bridge solo isn't just a button to push and you go away. And grinding on the front of the group is really hard too. No where in the race did Sagan show he had the fitness to do either of those things. I point to Trentin's move as evidence to that. He rode Sagan off his wheel, as I remember it. That doesn't happen to someone who could have but chose not to. It happens to a rider who knows what he should be doing, but can't.

If you still want to say racing is about decision making and not the watts on the bike, then at least agree, that today, Sagan's legs made the decision for him.

And you really believe in this? Nibali's acceleration (on freaking Poggio :surprised: ) was beyond Sagan's capability! He screwed it up, honestly. Nibali's attack was perfectly timed though, nobody expected it and no one marked it, Sagan choose to rely on his team (Oss), and then on decent he choose not, and then he choosed to chase himself, and then again not to chase, and then he sprinted. You can't win like that, of course. He's a great rider, but he blew up today.
Of Course, I don't want to take anything from the ride of Vincenzo the Great!

If you saw the race last year you know what is Sagan capable on Poggio. If he had the legs he would have definitely gone with Nibali. It would be the pleasure for him to be in that break.

He just simply does not have those legs.

Well you see, there is where your opinion might differ from several in this forum. Some believe that he could have attacked on the Poggio and that he did indeed had the power to do so. The problem is that he was all the time thinking about Kwiatkowski and prefer to wait for the sprint where he felt was the favorite. In the Tirreno he already proved that he was the fastest except for Kittel. Also, in the past he has shown that he can be annoyed tactically when riders are glued to his wheel. So this explains his tactic towards the end.

My initial belief was the same as the majority here, but now I am not sure if he was a little weaker towards the end. There is no really way to prove that.

 

[phanatic]

Re:

Poggio ascent time 6:13 (Nibali)
Last year 5:55 (Sagan/Kwiat/Alap)
Record 5:46 (Fondriest/Jaja)

Long solo effort on a rainy day. Too bad there weren't cobbles.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Poggio ascent time 6:13 (Nibali)
Last year 5:55 (Sagan/Kwiat/Alap)
Record 5:46 (Fondriest/Jaja)

:lol:

...........

 

[Red Rick]

Looking at all the re-race articles (including here on CN) and the poll, Sagan was the overwhelming favorite today, so him not winning belongs to the post race discussion. It's not hating the guy, it's not trolling, it's a fact: the best rider in the World got beat...and the best rider in the World won that bike race...Nibali can with GTs, can win monuments, he's a master tactician, probably the smartest rider f his generation, and he has some big b@lls.

For Sagan, being so good has its flip-side. He's a marked man. He can't chase everything, everyone...damn if he does, damn if he doesn't. Having said that, the big story is Vincenzo, the great, the huge champion writing another big chapter of his legacy. Man, what a Champion!

He was never the overwhelming favorite. I think most people agreed he had the best chance of winning, but most people would agree that there's no such thing as an overwhelming favorite for Milan San Remo.

And I do think it's a nice touch for Demare that he reaches an MSR podium without any controversy.

 

[Laplaz]

OMG Nibali! I nearly died in the last 3km!!!!

 

[El Pistolero]

Re:

Poggio ascent time 6:13 (Nibali)
Last year 5:55 (Sagan/Kwiat/Alap)
Record 5:46 (Fondriest/Jaja)

There was a headwind, so this doesn't really say much.

 

[MartinGT]

https://twitter.com/BriSmithy/status/975076982659657728?s=20

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

But to be honest Nibali role was to mark attackers on the Poggio, without working.
When he and the team noticed that he got like 6-7 seconds immediately (TBM sudden stop at the front created a big gap), he was told to just go.
Then he accelerated on the harder part of the Poggio and after the descent it was a while before teams could organize the chase.
Of course the favorites watched a bit at each other and that just was just barely enough to do it.

Everything did go the perfect way for Nibali, and for him to win MSR there was no other way.
Still, a legendary ride.

It's a lot of small things that helped Nibali win today.

The first thing I noticed when I rewatched it was Bahrain was the only team collectively well positioned on the Poggio. There were a few attacks, and when Nibali joined the initial move his teammates stopped riding and there were no domestiques at the front to follow. That's why he got the initial gap so 'easily'. They probably also underestimated him, and the headwind probably made them reluctant to do work as well.

The 7 man teams also played a role. There were just less domestiques on the Poggio and in the last kms to the finish.

And I wonder how the riders were affected by the massive rain in the first part of the race. Several riders complained about being cold in the first part, and Nibali doesn't do no cold.

 

[Red Rick]

One last thing I liked seeing was how Nibali's teammates other than Colbrellie really sat up to try and see the end. They started celebrating 1s after Nibali.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Yeah, it's highly probable that Sagan could have followed Nibali comfortably. This is the Poggio, not Stelvio. But Nibali wouldn't have worked with him, given he had Colbrelli behind, so then Sagan would have had to go solo or drop back. Sending Oss or Burghardt (if he hadn't done that ridiculously pointless move at the bottom of the climb) to cover the attack would have been a nice move - put perhaps they genuinely couldn't have followed Nibali.

I don't think so. Nibali has such a poor sprint that Sagan would have towed him to the line, caught a little bit of air with 3-400 metres to go and then won the sprint anyway.

MSR 2012 proves that.

Well yeah, but that's basically going solo. And I'm not sure Sagan would have held off the bunch in the way that Nibali did; I would guess the other teams would get organised a lot quicker than they did, if it were Sagan off the front.

I agree that what he did was stupid though. Either go on the Poggio or stay hidden and wait for the sprint - gambling that it will come back together. Absolutely, under no circumstances, lead the peloton in the last 3km.

Nibali's sprint has improved in recent times, though. He somehow beat bala in one, and came 5th in a bunch sprint at san juan once. He is no Pozzo. I don't know if he'd have won, but Nibali would have just tucked himself in behind and then attacked with 1000-2000m to go

Well, I remember Valverde laughing a little embarassedly after that - he didn't know that less than three riders had come in before the favourites, so he didn't think there were any bonifications to sprint for. It was in the Giro two years ago.

He really hasn't become that fast.

I remember that as well. Valverde flat out said he had no idea there were still bonus seconds on offer and if he'd have known that he'd have raced differently. Nibal's sprint has not improved and when Valverde is actually sprinting Nibali can't beat him.

 

[Anderis]

Re:

The only 2 guys that can be genuinely happy with their performance today are Nibali and Ewan. Everyone else failed.

I would add Neilands. He was a surprise of the race for me. I wonder if we will see him more often in the future. I guess some other riders may be happy as well (it's not like every rider was supposed to fight for the win).

I have never been a fan of Nibali. But his racing instinct is impressive. If it was only about strength, I doubt he would have won 4 GTs and 3 monuments. Now he can enjoy having one of the best palmares in modern cycling.

Also good job by Ewan. A rider who had a reputation of not being able to perform at all in longer races not so long ago.

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

The only 2 guys that can be genuinely happy with their performance today are Nibali and Ewan. Everyone else failed.

I would add Neilands. He was a surprise of the race for me. I wonder if we will see him more often in the future. I guess some other riders may be happy as well (it's not like every rider was supposed to fight for the win).

I have never been a fan of Nibali. But his racing instinct is impressive. If it was only about strength, I doubt he would have won 4 GTs and 3 monuments. Now he can enjoy having one of the best palmares in modern cycling.

Also good job by Ewan. A rider who had a reputation of not being able to perform well in longer races not so long ago.

Yes he was impressive.
Fun fact: For a moment I though that it was actually Mühlberger, then I realized that it was the NC jersey from Latvia.

 

[seldon71]

One thing which really caught my eye was the fact that once he went Nibali basically NEVER looked back to check the gap.

Some other riders may have had legs to do the same? Very selected few may even have had the skill & "cojones" for that descent from Poggio in order to open little bit extra distance to a charging peloton...

But it took a veteran who has won often enough to understand that it was irrelevant what is happening behind and concentrate purely in giving 110 % all the way to the line. How often you see breakaway rider being "paralyzed" when sprinter teams' start to loom behind. Not Nibali, not when taking a strong grab of his own destiny.

BRAVISSIMO!!!

 

[Dazed and Confused]

A fairly predictable edition. Congrats to Nibali. Also happy to see Ewan doing well again.

 

[jaylew]

Just watched it . Wow.

Thoughts:

Neiland's attack was critical. Nibali doesn't win without it. He very quickly jumped to his wheel and saved valuable seconds and energy using him as a springboard.

Great job from Ewan. He destroyed all the other sprinters. 2nd year in a row top 10. He could definitely win one day if the route stays as is.

Sagan was completely boxed in when Neilands and Nibali went. I don't think he would have responded to Neiland but I think there's a good chance he would have gone when he saw Nibali quickly join him. Alaphilippe was also boxed in but Kwia wasn't.

Grande Nibali! As usual, people are going overboard right after a race, calling him the best rider of the century, his generation, etc...but he's terrific. He saved the race but I still want a change to the finale.

I was surprised Matthews looked so strong having not completed a race this year and coming off his fracture.

A lesser descender probably doesn't win.

What the hell happened to Viviani? QS train delivered him at the end and he had absolutely nothing left.

While they all chased, Matthews, Sagan, and Kwia were never going to completely sell out to catch Nibs with Ewan, Démare, Kristoff, Colbrelli and the like just sitting on but they also killed any chance they had of finishing on the podium.