Milano - Sanremo 2025, one day monument, March 22

[Brullnux]

Last year he covered all attacks and was not at the finish line with the rest of them

Yes, because he was working for Philipsen... if Philipsen wasn't there then he would've attacked himself or someone like Mohoric/Pidcock would have won

 

[scribers]

So you agree with me?

 

[gerundium]

with all the big guns showing good form this early season i expect a shootout of the superstars. But somehow i get this nagging feeling that everyone being in good form can open up the possibility for surprises even more, with the big guns possibly neutralizing each other. How about a surprise victory from Degenkolb? rolling back the clock a decade? Ok ok i know my Dege pick is too early and should save for Roubaix but everyone will be wise to it there.

 

[Red Rick]

My thought process is you nuke the Capi just to thin out the peloton enough to decrease the likelihood of a well organized group forming after the Cipressa (don't care too much how exactly you approach that part), you let your two best doms set a maximally high pace on the first 3 km of the Cipressa and then you try and go. Would people still be able to follow? Perhaps yes, but I think he is quite a bit more likely to drop everyone there than on the Poggio.

Like, I'm not 100% convinced that's the best strategy or anything, but I think they'll have to try to mix it up because I just don't believe in him winning by attacking late on the Poggio.

I do fully agree with mixing up strategies rather than try the same thing every year. Even if it doesn't work you can just wait and try again in the finale.

Still I expect favorites on his wheel to not get dropped, outside of Philipsen. I don't see how doms blasting it at 4% does that much before it's time to go. Poggio at least has the extra time in the legs, as well as the hairpins that create the harmonica effect.

IMO his best chances are gonna be weather dependent on post Poggio RNG, the latter of which requires him to not try to beat a top tier sprinter in a sprint.

 

[Red Rick]

with all the big guns showing good form this early season i expect a shootout of the superstars. But somehow i get this nagging feeling that everyone being in good form can open up the possibility for surprises even more, with the big guns possibly neutralizing each other. How about a surprise victory from Degenkolb? rolling back the clock a decade? Ok ok i know my Dege pick is too early and should save for Roubaix but everyone will be wise to it there.

Nobody is ready for Mattia Bais to win from the breakaway

 

[Brullnux]

So you agree with me?

No. My view is that Pogacar has to drop van der Poel else he won't win. I don't think driving hard on the Cipressa makes that any more likely, it just makes it less likely that a sprinter wins and more likely a late attack goes away instead. It potentially makes it easier for a late Pogacar attack, but I think he'll face the Sagan problem where everyone follows him

 

[Barkintheeye]

Pog should try to go solo already from Cipressa. None thinks that's gonna work and no team wants to waste too much on chasing him. Then on Poggio Pogi puts in the big gear and solos away to a clear victory!

 

[Sciatic]

Yes. But as was pointed out to me, Nibali’s amazing feat was only possible because they didn’t react until it was too late. Pog won’t have that luxury. But then he is Pog so who knows, his rivals, including MVDP will be nervous.

Good point about Nibali’s awesome win. As Sagan said in a post-race interviews (paraphrase): he’s the only one who had the balls to go for it.”
Which, when you think about it, gives additional meaning to “it’s in the bag(s)”

 

[Sciatic]

All your fantastic puns aside, fwiw Van der Poel would count as a surname starting with a P in Dutch.

The big question is whether one of Van der Poel and Pogacar can go solo, if not then I expect another Mohoric/Stuyven calibre rider winning with a late attack. If the latter gets added to the startlist, then Ganna and Tarling could be the perfect one-two punch for those final kilometres.

I think that’s a decent bet for this year. There are several riders in good form who might be able to stay close enough to Pog/MVDP over the Poggio and rejoin at the bottom. Then it’s possible to get a Stuyven/Cancellara type flyer with a 1-2 km to go IF Pog and MVDP look at each other for too long before chasing.

 

[Sciatic]

I think that's contingent on him actually winning it eventually. I might have thought the same about Sagan but I can assure you that the anticlimactic thing was him not winning it and just get gradually worse and fizzling out in his later years.

Agreed

 

[Sciatic]

I don't think Pogacar will ever win if he doesn't try something different. I stand by my claim that a Cipressa attack could work if UAE nukes the Capi and Pogacar attacks sufficiently early. I don't think he can survive against a big peloton between Cipressa and Poggio but I don't think there would be a big peloton in that scenario. And if he attacks on the Poggio he should do it early. The entire "let Wellens do a leadout" thing doesn't work because everyone knows exactly when the acceleration is coming and Van der Poel will be perfectly positioned to follow. Just attack as soon as the Poggio starts, do it from 20th place in the peloton if need be, but put yourself in a position where Van der Poel and the rest has to close two bikelengths. I don't think he will win that way, but I think he increases his chances compared to what he did the last few years.

I’m glad you pointed out the key factor when folks raise the idea of Pogacar going solo on the Cipressa. He might get a good gap but then there is the full peloton including sprinter’s teams flying down the shallow descent and flat prior to the start of Poggio. Yes, we see Pogacar do amazing long solo efforts but almost always from a smaller lead group that doesn’t have the firepower of a full peloton with strong rouleurs pulling. So as Gigs points out, for a Cipressa attack to be successful UAE would have to shred the peloton on the Capi to force a selection. Pretty unlikely though.

 

[Cookster15]

I’m glad you pointed out the key factor when folks raise the idea of Pogacar going solo on the Cipressa. He might get a good gap but then there is the full peloton including sprinter’s teams flying down the shallow descent and flat prior to the start of Poggio. Yes, we see Pogacar do amazing long solo efforts but almost always from a smaller lead group that doesn’t have the firepower of a full peloton with strong rouleurs pulling. So as Gigs points out, for a Cipressa attack to be successful UAE would have to shred the peloton on the Capi to force a selection. Pretty unlikely though.

Yes, that all makes sense. When Pogacar won the 2024 worlds he held off the pack for 51km like a carrot in front of a horse. But that was against smaller national teams and a different course with a climb every lap. There wasn't much flat for team roulers to pull him back - unlike MSR. I'd love to see UAE try though and maybe some panic set in.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

2021 - stujven mugs them all after an attack at the bottom of poggio descent, with soren krajg's baffling tactics playing a staring role

View: https://youtu.be/nwImB_9qfK0?si=g9X5wP37VSZkXpao

 

[Sciatic]

Additional evidence for the challenge (or crapshoot) this race poses for even the best of the best: there hasn’t been a multiple winner since Freire in 2010, and that was in a different era when groups of sprinters & rouleurs came to the line together.

And then you have to go back to 2001 to find another multiple winner (Zabel).

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

Anyone but Philipsen, Van der Poel or Pogacar please.

Dark horse is my man Jakob Fuglsang in my humble opinion.

 

[Rockestar_33]

Bling to finally won it

 

[Gratemans]

Bling to finally won it

I'd like that.
That's also why I hope Pogacar wont win it. It would be great if he wins everything accept MSR only to finally take it at the end of his career. Cycling is about stories, and that'd be a pretty cool one.

 

[Lequack]

Basically this, but now there is also Pedersen on the wheel

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Let's be honest, nobody has a clue, including the riders, what's gonna happen. Without doubt the best hour of the season.

 

[E_F_]

Let's be honest, nobody has a clue, including the riders, what's gonna happen. Without doubt the best hour of the season.

It's an hour now? Before it was 45 minutes! And to be perfectly honest even that seems a bit much. Realistically the action starts at the Poggio.

 

[Sciatic]

It's an hour now? Before it was 45 minutes! And to be perfectly honest even that seems a bit much. Realistically the action starts at the Poggio.

I think the drama of the buildup heading into the Cipressa is part of what makes the finale (Poggio) so exciting. Most of us, consciously or not, try to "read" what we see happening in the race--e.g., who is positioned where, who looks a little ragged, who has to spend extra energy after a puncture, etc. Not that these necessarily (or ever?) pan out as good predictors but is a natural way for fans to engage with the race. I'm sure there are exceptions--like folks who have bet on the race and just want to watch if their rider (or riders) compete for the win on the Poggio climb & descent.

It's separate element than excitement, but I certainly enjoy watching the views as the peloton goes over the Capi, which also adds to the narrative buildup. For all of the above, maybe it makes a difference what time of day people are watching? For me, I'm watching the procession along the coast (and sometimes earlier) just after I get up with my early morning coffee. Quite a pleasant way to start the weekend!

 

[Netserk]

Are there any parts of the Poggio on the hairpins that are narrow enough that setting a go slow and blocking with 4 riders when your leader attacks can cause the kind of carnage often seen on the Koppenberg when a rider crashes or has a mechanical issue?

The left-hand hairpin is quite tight, but at that point it is usually all stretched out.

Street View · Google Maps

Ort in Google Maps noch intensiver erleben.

www.google.com

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Let's be honest, nobody has a clue, including the riders, what's gonna happen. Without doubt the best 15 minutes of the season.

I fixed it for you.

 

[Sciatic]

2021 - stujven mugs them all after an attack at the bottom of poggio descent, with soren krajg's baffling tactics playing a staring role

View: https://youtu.be/nwImB_9qfK0?si=g9X5wP37VSZkXpao

Thanks for posting that, just watched that replay. A couple of things stood out. I didn't remember the chase group did so much d*cking around in the last 2 km--they could easily have caught Stuyven--but none were willing to commit (understandable to not want to drag someone else to the win but disappointing to watch nonetheless).

Also, for those suggesting Pidcock can win via attack on the descent, in that edition he went hard from the front during the bottom half of the descent around the sharpest corners. But couldn't create a gap to Van Aert on his wheel. Even less likely he could get away from MVDP that way.

 

[AmRacer]

Thanks for posting that, just watched that replay. A couple of things stood out. I didn't remember the chase group did so much d*cking around in the last 2 km--they could easily have caught Stuyven--but none were willing to commit (understandable to not want to drag someone else to the win but disappointing to watch nonetheless).

Also, for those suggesting Pidcock can win via attack on the descent, in that edition he went hard from the front during the bottom half of the descent around the sharpest corners. But couldn't create a gap to Van Aert on his wheel. Even less likely he could get away from MVDP that way.

I would say, Pidcock is much better this year.