Not when there´s no peleton left, but only scattered groups, as you can imagine after a 9 minute ascent of the Cipressa.
9.2 km of flat between the two climbs. It'd still be suicide even with a gap of 30" if you are on your own.
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- Mar 18, 2025
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Nah. They screwed it up in 2024. Only Wellens to lead out. In 2023, it was a bit better, but the Cipressa was too easy. If they nuke the Cipressa, then nuke the Poggio, it will be too attritional. I expect Pidcock to be last one standing with Pogacar. Might be wrong, we'll see.
- Nov 16, 2013
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I have no interest in what mou says anymore. The guy had his moment, overplayed his hand, and should be completely irrelevant by now.
The lineup is quite great. I fail to see what's wrong with it.
- Apr 30, 2011
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40 riders did Cipressa in 9'26" last year, so there would be a large group chasing immediately as they would ride Cipressa half a minute slower than Pogi.
But you could imagine there would be a few riders 10-15 seconds back, trying to follow an attack. Maybe even succeding in following. Do you ride with him or start chasing if you are only a few seconds behind?
Then a few other riders around 25 seconds back. A few more 30-35 seconds back. And so on. Would they all wait for each other?
It probably wouldnt be Pog and then 40 riders that are 30 seconds back. Just waiting to reel him back.
I am still not sure he will actually try it at Cipressa, but it would make the race even more entertaining. Interesting to see what happens if he would get a decent gap or a couple of strong riders with him and they go for it.
- Jul 7, 2013
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Seemingly there's no obvious solution, no optimal tactic in this race for Pogi. Hammering Poggio hasn't worked so far. Attacking on Cipressa has an obvious flaw (as you pointed out). Trying an attack with 2 km to go may be a good idea but also difficult to execute as he'll be heavily marked and probably tired after Poggio efforts.
If there´s a group of 40 riders 30" back at the start of the flat between Cipressa and Poggio, how many of them will really work to reel him in? How long will it take before that cooperation will run smoothly? And how much time can they take back on one of the best tt´ers of the field?
Having 30" on the Cipressa is a lot.
- Mar 20, 2022
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If the climb is raced faster, there won't be 40 riders but probably 20 riders. Don't forget weather can play a role too.
- Feb 20, 2012
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40 man peloton last year after a 9'26, and that was with losing most of the time on the easy section.
And there's always a sprint to the Poggio for positions.
- Mar 20, 2022
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But now the first part of Cipressa will be harder (if UAE doesn't sabotage his race gain) so peloton will be in pieces.
- Sep 2, 2011
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I don't think it's likely he wins it this way. I just think it's more likely than any other way.
He can't play the Nibali surprise card because everybody knows he's going to nuke the Poggio if no selection has been made before.
And even if he does get a small gap (10"?) on the Poggio chances are he still gets caught on the descent because he's a worse descender than VdP and others.
He'd be a marked man on the run in so hard to pull a Stuyven too.
Outsprinting a small group of 3-4 riders is actually the second most likely scenario for him because sh*t can happen in that kind of sprint.
Btw for the sake of discussion, how big of a peloton do you expect it to be after the Cipressa descent? Last year 47 riders climbed Cipressa in 9'30". Let's round it to 50 riders.
If Pog climbs it in 8'50" that's a 40" advantage on the peloton. How many of those riders could AND would work in the flat section before the Poggio, I wonder. I can imagine Lidl having Skujins and perhaps Milan (last year he lost contact on Cipressa, then came back because the group sat up), Ineos might have Tarling and/or Kwiato, Bora might have someone like Sobrero and Adria but not sure they'd be willing to work. Trentin if Ala has golden legs that day? Someone for Matthews? I mean, yes they have a good chance of catching him but it's not a given to me.
That said, if by full peloton with many rouleurs you mean an 80 rider group then you're probably looking at a one minute advantage for Pog after the Cipressa descent... no way they close it down.
All of this is assuming the peloton is a rational entity, no one responds to Pog's attack on Cipressa, no one loses a wheel or crashes on the descent and they all regroup and start chasing immediately after the descent is over. Which we all know won't happen after seeing group 2/3/4 dynamics for years.
The most likely scenario, as @rghysens and @Salvarani suggested, is having a number of groups scattered behind Pogacar, with very limited cooperation until some regrouping happens.
How many riders do you guys believe can climb Cipressa in less than 9'20"? Trentin told me last year that his goal was 9'20" if the race exploded there. I reckon not more than 20 riders would be within 25" seconds of Pogacar if everything goes according to UAE plan.
Again, this is not to say I expect him to succeed this way, but it's a card I would play at some point over his career.
- Apr 30, 2011
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They'd be no slower than normal at least. Pace gets very high in the second half of the flat.
If the climb is raced faster for those behind Pogi, the gap is smaller. Do you think he can hold 10 riders back who are 10" behind him?
Thats what will be interesting to see, if it really plays out like that which could be difficult in reality that it really does. Either way, they would have to cooperate or the gap goes out to 20-25 seconds at most, with riders rejoining from behind instead. Then it depends on if there are many domestics left.
- Jun 11, 2021
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30s or any bigger gap than 5-10 seconds is completely unrealistic on Cipressa lmao. Draft is insane and everyone is arriving fresh as feck.
I still think from Pogacars perspective attacking on Cipressa is worth giving it a shot.
a) There is a very very tiny chance that he gets a gap of a few seconds and group 2 syndrom kicks in with him getting gifted 30 seconds on the descent for no reason. Incredibly unlikely but given some dynamics not 100% unthinkable.
b) The slightly more realistic reason is that you create a reduced group of guys that for some reason are willing to work with you. Should in theory also be extremly unlikely but you never know, over the years I've seen all sorts of randoms with no shot working with him. A 10-15 men group arriving together at Poggio would almost be an ideal scenario to attack again.
c) Even if nothing works out (which is by far the expected outcome) I actually don't see it negatively affecting any attempts at the Poggio. The whole nuking Cipressa with a team and then keeping the pace high enough to nuke Poggio with the team again clearly is not feasable enough, you're just running out of manpower. If Cipressa fails, let other teams take over and play opportunist on Poggio. His positioning is good enough and his 5-10 minutes recovery is insane, so I don't think he'll burn relevant matches by going on Cipressa.
I still think from Pogacars perspective attacking on Cipressa is worth giving it a shot.
a) There is a very very tiny chance that he gets a gap of a few seconds and group 2 syndrom kicks in with him getting gifted 30 seconds on the descent for no reason. Incredibly unlikely but given some dynamics not 100% unthinkable.
b) The slightly more realistic reason is that you create a reduced group of guys that for some reason are willing to work with you. Should in theory also be extremly unlikely but you never know, over the years I've seen all sorts of randoms with no shot working with him. A 10-15 men group arriving together at Poggio would almost be an ideal scenario to attack again.
c) Even if nothing works out (which is by far the expected outcome) I actually don't see it negatively affecting any attempts at the Poggio. The whole nuking Cipressa with a team and then keeping the pace high enough to nuke Poggio with the team again clearly is not feasable enough, you're just running out of manpower. If Cipressa fails, let other teams take over and play opportunist on Poggio. His positioning is good enough and his 5-10 minutes recovery is insane, so I don't think he'll burn relevant matches by going on Cipressa.
- Apr 30, 2011
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With Philipsen in the race, Van der Poel can afford to go all-in when neutralising a Pogi attack. I don't see him sitting up, waiting for others to pull.
- Jul 16, 2024
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They still haven't tried attacking towards the bottom of the Poggio, perhaps even from a slow tempo, with one maybe two riders doing an explosive leadout for Pogi. They also still haven't tried saving all their energy for the Poggio and doing their usual train.
- Mar 20, 2022
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The problem with draft is no one wants to be in the front. This leads to lack of cooperation. I don't believe Pogacar can drop everyone but if he somehow is alone in the front, he can definitely get a gap of 20 seconds, specially in the false flat section.
- Feb 20, 2012
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To me there's 2 assumptions that are consistently made that I've never seen reflected in racing while I've seen the opposite of it consistently.
1. Pogacar can drop everyone and solo away with a significant gap on the Cipressa
2. The Cipressa will cause the peloton to fracture into many small pieces
In reality, the Cipressa isn't much harder than the Poggio, and if you look at any climbs in other races, he's never gone solo from a climb like that, and on finishes with the same difficulty he's lost uphill sprints to the likes of Van Aert. Similarly, Van der Poel has won on finishes like Visegrad (same stats, different profile) even while in bad shape.
Pogacar doesn't often try solo attacks on fresh, short climbs, but the few times he's actually done it it hasn't worked out either, like on stage 1 of the Giro last year and on stage 2 of the Tour last year. And both were much harder hills than the Cipressa.
The assumption that the peloton will scatter into small groups is just weird. If anything small groups tend to coalesce, and we basically don't even see small groups occurring on the penultimate Mur de Huy in Fleche or stuff like that. Groups get stretched out on the descent and all join together after
Only way I can see it work is an ungodly moto draft, which cannot be excluded. That said, I'd still think it's worth a try just to see what happens for future editions of Sanremo.
1. Pogacar can drop everyone and solo away with a significant gap on the Cipressa
2. The Cipressa will cause the peloton to fracture into many small pieces
In reality, the Cipressa isn't much harder than the Poggio, and if you look at any climbs in other races, he's never gone solo from a climb like that, and on finishes with the same difficulty he's lost uphill sprints to the likes of Van Aert. Similarly, Van der Poel has won on finishes like Visegrad (same stats, different profile) even while in bad shape.
Pogacar doesn't often try solo attacks on fresh, short climbs, but the few times he's actually done it it hasn't worked out either, like on stage 1 of the Giro last year and on stage 2 of the Tour last year. And both were much harder hills than the Cipressa.
The assumption that the peloton will scatter into small groups is just weird. If anything small groups tend to coalesce, and we basically don't even see small groups occurring on the penultimate Mur de Huy in Fleche or stuff like that. Groups get stretched out on the descent and all join together after
Only way I can see it work is an ungodly moto draft, which cannot be excluded. That said, I'd still think it's worth a try just to see what happens for future editions of Sanremo.
- Jul 4, 2016
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- Jul 7, 2013
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Some good points here. I also think any substantial gap on Cipressa is unlikely. It's worth trying once indeed as the most classical option (Poggio attack) has failed multiply.
- Jun 11, 2021
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True if you're talking about an already reduced group but not a full Peleton on a 5% short hill. Half the directors are screaming into the riders ears to get to the front and be in first positions. Of course the absolute top tier guys like MVDP or Pidcock don't want to put their nose in the wind but just the Ineos bots alone are programmed to ride as hard as possible up the road for the sole reason of "easier to operate from the front".
It's just a numbers game that goes against this idea of Pogacar getting anywhere close to 20s on the uphill part. If you have 7 guys from whom you get separation you might get lucky that only 1 out of these remaining 6 will be ready to work. If you have to get separation from 50 guys you'll inevitably end up with at least 5 guys willing to drill it, no chance in getting that gap that big.
I don't see how there would be a big gap on Cipressa. I find it more likely that a selected group of riders follows Pogacar and some of them would definitely be willing to co-operate (Ganna, Pidcock, potentially VdP, depending on Philipsen's position) and then another attack on Poggio could make in possible for him to win.
Still, unlikely to drop everyone but if the race is hard-ish his sprint may be good enough. Last year he wasn't that far from Philipsen IIRC.
Still, unlikely to drop everyone but if the race is hard-ish his sprint may be good enough. Last year he wasn't that far from Philipsen IIRC.
- Mar 20, 2022
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But what full peloton? You will not have 30 riders if UAE go nuts in Cipressa.
- Jun 11, 2021
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You will at the moment of Pogacars attack. Obviously it'll be strung out and so on but UAE doesn't have the team to reduce a peleton to a proper 10-15 man group with separation and so on from where Pogacar could attack.
- Sep 4, 2017
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Nobody is willingly going to give Pogacar a single bike length let alone 15 seconds so I do think that if nobody can immediately follow him on the Cipressa that would be due to lacking the legs to do so and if even the best can’t follow then the group they are in must logically also already be very small in a manner that would harm an immediate chase ensuing.
Group 2 dynamics often help a solo rider win even when the theoretical strength and advantage is with the group behind.
Still a low percentage chance of success but better imo than leaving it to the Poggio again.
Group 2 dynamics often help a solo rider win even when the theoretical strength and advantage is with the group behind.
Still a low percentage chance of success but better imo than leaving it to the Poggio again.
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