Teams & Riders Nairo Quintana discussion thread

[yaco]

Quintana doesn't ride a GC for fun - He's out to win and must be the outright favorite - Possibly one or two riders may switch from the Giro to the TDF.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Quintana doesn't ride a GC for fun - He's out to win and must be the outright favorite - Possibly one or two riders may switch from the Giro to the TDF.

Not if he's not at 100%. He can't be at his best for two consecutive GTs. He had to decide how hard to go at both, and how much he can hold back. If he's in Tour 2016 form for the Giro then he won't win probably, but if he's any better than that he won't be fresh for the Tour etc. It's a difficult game to play.

 

[Red Rick]

Quintana went all out in the Tour. He didn't have the form cause he'd been ill. I'm still not sure if intends to go into the Giro in suboptimal form and ride himself into shape or just go into it 100% only to softpedal it. With the way that he's talking I'm expecting the latter, though it's not something that bodes well for the race.

 

[Jspear]

Well if he actual wants to win the Giro, there will be no soft pedaling. He's not that much better than Nibbes, Aru, Chaves, etc. They will be going all out for the win. If he wants to win he'll have to put in a serious effort.

I do think the Giro will be awesome. The list of potential winners is sizeable and the list of potential top 5'ers is even bigger.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Well if he actual wants to win the Giro, there will be no soft pedaling. He's not that much better than Nibbes, Aru, Chaves, etc. They will be going all out for the win. If he wants to win he'll have to put in a serious effort.

I do think the Giro will be awesome. The list of potential winners is sizeable and the list of potential top 5'ers is even bigger.

I absolutely agree. If Quintana peaks for the giro he maybe would have made it boring because he is the 2nd strongest gc rider right now, but a Quintana in mediocre shape in a giro with a lot of TT'ing could be great to watch.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Quintana went all out in the Tour. He didn't have the form cause he'd been ill. I'm still not sure if intends to go into the Giro in suboptimal form and ride himself into shape or just go into it 100% only to softpedal it. With the way that he's talking I'm expecting the latter, though it's not something that bodes well for the race.

I think both options end with a similar performance level, which is why I used the Tour this year as an example because I think if he expects to also win the Tour he has to do one of the options you talk about.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Quintana went all out in the Tour. He didn't have the form cause he'd been ill. I'm still not sure if intends to go into the Giro in suboptimal form and ride himself into shape or just go into it 100% only to softpedal it. With the way that he's talking I'm expecting the latter, though it's not something that bodes well for the race.

I think both options end with a similar performance level, which is why I used the Tour this year as an example because I think if he expects to also win the Tour he has to do one of the options you talk about.

He'll have to look at Contador's double attempts. It think it's quite clear that actually hitting peak in that Giro would be best rather than riding it in suboptimal shape. You tire less, and you recover faster. Still, I don't expect he'll be able to half ass it and win. Nibali will make him second guess his decisions every step of the way.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Well if he actual wants to win the Giro, there will be no soft pedaling. He's not that much better than Nibbes, Aru, Chaves, etc. They will be going all out for the win. If he wants to win he'll have to put in a serious effort.

I do think the Giro will be awesome. The list of potential winners is sizeable and the list of potential top 5'ers is even bigger.

I absolutely agree. If Quintana peaks for the giro he maybe would have made it boring because he is the 2nd strongest gc rider right now, but a Quintana in mediocre shape in a giro with a lot of TT'ing could be great to watch.

If Tour 2016 was 'mediocre Quintana' then he won't win. 2014 Giro I find hard to judge. I expect the Giro field to be the toughest in a while.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Quintana went all out in the Tour. He didn't have the form cause he'd been ill. I'm still not sure if intends to go into the Giro in suboptimal form and ride himself into shape or just go into it 100% only to softpedal it. With the way that he's talking I'm expecting the latter, though it's not something that bodes well for the race.

I think both options end with a similar performance level, which is why I used the Tour this year as an example because I think if he expects to also win the Tour he has to do one of the options you talk about.

He'll have to look at Contador's double attempts. It think it's quite clear that actually hitting peak in that Giro would be best rather than riding it in suboptimal shape. You tire less, and you recover faster. Still, I don't expect he'll be able to half *** it and win. Nibali will make him second guess his decisions every step of the way.

And I can't imagine Aru and Astana will make it particularly easy for him either. Pinot and Chaves might want a piece of the action too. Should be fun.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't see Pinot and Chaves as the benchmark that he'll have to beat. Chaves got dispatched every time Quintana went for it in the Vuelta, except for the stage he was allowed to go up the road, and Quintana won't even have to beat him uphill. On the other hand, Quintana was in very good shape, and both Froome and Quintana were very close to their best in the Vuelta.

As for climbing, I think Kruijswijk, Nibali and maybe Aru will be the benchmark for Quintana to beat uphill. Both were better climbers than Chaves in the Giro for me. What could happen is that a slightly larger number of riders than usual is pretty close to each other, with 2 or 3 riders being above that, like in the Tour of this year. Tom Dumoulin may change the dynamic if he's part of those riders. But if Quintana has to worry to about Tom Dumoulin in a Giro then he's *** for the Tour.

What I do have to say is I'm mostly looking at performances of last year, and that may easily change. Also, it's very hard to compare especially the Giro to the other GTs of 2016. The way I'm looking at it, Kruijswijk, and the Nibali of the last 3 Giro stages could've tested Froome more than Bardet in the Tour, and deffo would've made the Vuelta top 3.

All in all, the only logical conclusion I can make is that Bauke Mollema will definitely win by 5 minutes

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

I don't see Pinot and Chaves as the benchmark that he'll have to beat. Chaves got dispatched every time Quintana went for it in the Vuelta, except for the stage he was allowed to go up the road, and Quintana won't even have to beat him uphill. On the other hand, Quintana was in very good shape, and both Froome and Quintana were very close to their best in the Vuelta.

As for climbing, I think Kruijswijk, Nibali and maybe Aru will be the benchmark for Quintana to beat uphill. Both were better climbers than Chaves in the Giro for me. What could happen is that a slightly larger number of riders than usual is pretty close to each other, with 2 or 3 riders being above that, like in the Tour of this year. Tom Dumoulin may change the dynamic if he's part of those riders. But if Quintana has to worry to about Tom Dumoulin in a Giro then he's **** for the Tour.

What I do have to say is I'm mostly looking at performances of last year, and that may easily change. Also, it's very hard to compare especially the Giro to the other GTs of 2016. The way I'm looking at it, Kruijswijk, and the Nibali of the last 3 Giro stages could've tested Froome more than Bardet in the Tour, and deffo would've made the Vuelta top 3.

All in all, the only logical conclusion I can make is that Bauke Mollema will definitely win by 5 minutes

Luckily for Quintana, Pinot, Chaves and Aru don't have good TTs. Dumoulin does but the mountains will test him. Nibali will be the main danger for Quintana and Kruijswijk also if he can repeat his ride from last year which is no sure thing. If Contador can stay upright this might be his chance to return to the podium in the Tour but it still won't be easy for him. Porte, Bardet and a few others will only have gained confidence from their Tour rides in 2016.

But maybe the Giro 2016 form was a bit false. Maybe Nibali's Giro form which was below his best but good enough to win flattered the rides of Chaves and SK. It's hard to say until they race each other again but then Chaves backed up in the Vuelta and also rode a good race there. But in the first half of the Giro and even later in the race Nibali looked very unconvincing while SK looked comfortable. No one really knows how SK would have finished off the Giro without his crash. Even with the TT in the Giro Quintana obviously thinks he is more likely to win there than beat Froome in the Tour. Dumoulin could still cause problems if he can keep the time losses down, in the mountains. It should be a very interesting race and with some of these riders backing up in the Vuelta it could continue in Spain. The Vuelta has been the most entertaining GT of the three over the past six or seven years.

 

[Escarabajo]

LOL. Unzue says it is not defined yet. I guess Quintana wants to pressure Unzue but it looks like Movistar have a different program.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/quintanas-2017-giro-ditalia-participation-not-decided-yet-says-unzue/

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

Luckily for Quintana, Pinot, Chaves and Aru don't have good TTs. Dumoulin does but the mountains will test him. Nibali will be the main danger for Quintana and Kruijswijk also if he can repeat his ride from last year which is no sure thing.

(...)

But maybe the Giro 2016 form was a bit false. Maybe Nibali's Giro form which was below his best but good enough to win flattered the rides of Chaves and SK. It's hard to say until they race each other again but then Chaves backed up in the Vuelta and also rode a good race there. But in the first half of the Giro and even later in the race Nibali looked very unconvincing while SK looked comfortable. No one really knows how SK would have finished off the Giro without his crash. Even with the TT in the Giro Quintana obviously thinks he is more likely to win there than beat Froome in the Tour. Dumoulin could still cause problems if he can keep the time losses down, in the mountains.

I agree with most of your post, except when you dismiss Pinot's ITT abilities (see '16 Romandie, French Nationals). I clearly see Pinot ahead of Dumoulin, that is if he finishes.

"Even with the TT in the Giro Quintana obviously thinks he is more likely to win there than beat Froome in the Tour." I agree. And it's sad. I thought that he had broken the curse at the Vuelta...

 

[sir fly]

Re:

LOL. Unzue says it is not defined yet. I guess Quintana wants to pressure Unzue but it looks like Movistar have a different program.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/quintanas-2017-giro-ditalia-participation-not-decided-yet-says-unzue/

I suppose we shouldn't believe in everything Colombian media publishes about their hero.

 

[staubsauger]

Looks like Quintana in fact wants to win the Giro and simply intends to get still 3rd rather than 2nd in poor shape at the Tour. Certainly Quintana is powerful enough at Movistar to calling the shots himself instead of listening to Unzue!

 

[Red Rick]

I feel Pinot is a bit of a loose cannon. His climbing in GTs in pretty much swing or miss, though in the regular stage races he's been pretty consistent in being aggressive but being unable to make get any gap uphill.

As for comparing the Giro and the Tour, now I've come to think of it I think Valverde is a very good benchmark. In the Giro he got 3rd after Kruijswijk crashed, and before that he was more than 3 minutes down on Kruijswijk and got outclimbed almost every stage they went for it. After Kruijswijk crashed, Nibali proved to be the superior climber. In the Tour, Valverde finished 6th, less than 2 minutes off Bardet's 2nd place, while Valverde spent most of his time looking at Quintana. It has to be said though, that time gaps in general were a lot smaller in that Tour, except for the gap to the winner. I don't find it a stretch to say Valverde was at a similar level in those races, and if he was better in one of the two, it was likely the Giro.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

I don't see Pinot and Chaves as the benchmark that he'll have to beat. Chaves got dispatched every time Quintana went for it in the Vuelta, except for the stage he was allowed to go up the road, and Quintana won't even have to beat him uphill. On the other hand, Quintana was in very good shape, and both Froome and Quintana were very close to their best in the Vuelta.

As for climbing, I think Kruijswijk, Nibali and maybe Aru will be the benchmark for Quintana to beat uphill. Both were better climbers than Chaves in the Giro for me. What could happen is that a slightly larger number of riders than usual is pretty close to each other, with 2 or 3 riders being above that, like in the Tour of this year. Tom Dumoulin may change the dynamic if he's part of those riders. But if Quintana has to worry to about Tom Dumoulin in a Giro then he's **** for the Tour.

What I do have to say is I'm mostly looking at performances of last year, and that may easily change. Also, it's very hard to compare especially the Giro to the other GTs of 2016. The way I'm looking at it, Kruijswijk, and the Nibali of the last 3 Giro stages could've tested Froome more than Bardet in the Tour, and deffo would've made the Vuelta top 3.

All in all, the only logical conclusion I can make is that Bauke Mollema will definitely win by 5 minutes

In front of Dumoulin and Kruijswijk?

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

All in all, the only logical conclusion I can make is that Bauke Mollema will definitely win by 5 minutes

In front of Dumoulin and Kruijswijk?

Definitely, no riders outside the Dutch will finish within 20 minutes in the GC. They may yet win a stage in a sprint or something ridiculous though.

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

I feel Pinot is a bit of a loose cannon. His climbing in GTs in pretty much swing or miss, though in the regular stage races he's been pretty consistent in being aggressive but being unable to make get any gap uphill.

As for comparing the Giro and the Tour, now I've come to think of it I think Valverde is a very good benchmark. In the Giro he got 3rd after Kruijswijk crashed, and before that he was more than 3 minutes down on Kruijswijk and got outclimbed almost every stage they went for it. After Kruijswijk crashed, Nibali proved to be the superior climber. In the Tour, Valverde finished 6th, less than 2 minutes off Bardet's 2nd place, while Valverde spent most of his time looking at Quintana. It has to be said though, that time gaps in general were a lot smaller in that Tour, except for the gap to the winner. I don't find it a stretch to say Valverde was at a similar level in those races, and if he was better in one of the two, it was likely the Giro.

Valverde was dropped only at very high altitude, that's his old weakness. He was climbing on par with Kruijswijk in MTT and stage 16, and in the last mountain stage he was very close to Nibali. In fact I think that altitude weakness, especially in stage 19, cost him the chance to win the whole Giro. And as far as his form concerns, in both Giro and the Tour, I think that I read somewhere the Valverde himself said his best form of the whole year was at the Tour, which is not surprise knowing the fact that he was often stronger in his second GT of the year throughout his career.

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

Looks like Quintana in fact wants to win the Giro and simply intends to get still 3rd rather than 2nd in poor shape at the Tour. Certainly Quintana is powerful enough at Movistar to calling the shots himself instead of listening to Unzue!

I don't think so.., Unzue have tons of experience, and he worked with bigger riders than Nairo. He can handle him

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I feel Pinot is a bit of a loose cannon. His climbing in GTs in pretty much swing or miss, though in the regular stage races he's been pretty consistent in being aggressive but being unable to make get any gap uphill.

As for comparing the Giro and the Tour, now I've come to think of it I think Valverde is a very good benchmark. In the Giro he got 3rd after Kruijswijk crashed, and before that he was more than 3 minutes down on Kruijswijk and got outclimbed almost every stage they went for it. After Kruijswijk crashed, Nibali proved to be the superior climber. In the Tour, Valverde finished 6th, less than 2 minutes off Bardet's 2nd place, while Valverde spent most of his time looking at Quintana. It has to be said though, that time gaps in general were a lot smaller in that Tour, except for the gap to the winner. I don't find it a stretch to say Valverde was at a similar level in those races, and if he was better in one of the two, it was likely the Giro.

Valverde was dropped only at very high altitude, that's his old weakness. He was climbing on par with Kruijswijk in MTT and stage 16, and in the last mountain stage he was very close to Nibali. In fact I think that altitude weakness, especially in stage 19, cost him the chance to win the whole Giro. And as far as his form concerns, in both Giro and the Tour, I think that I read somewhere the Valverde himself said his best form of the whole year was at the Tour, which is not surprise knowing the fact that he was often stronger in his second GT of the year throughout his career.

Losing 23s in an 10km MTT is definitely not equal. He had 2 bad days, he also had a bad day or two in the Tour. I really, really doubt he was significantly better. And as for Valverde's statement, I take those with a few grains of salt.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Luckily for Quintana, Pinot, Chaves and Aru don't have good TTs. Dumoulin does but the mountains will test him. Nibali will be the main danger for Quintana and Kruijswijk also if he can repeat his ride from last year which is no sure thing.

(...)

But maybe the Giro 2016 form was a bit false. Maybe Nibali's Giro form which was below his best but good enough to win flattered the rides of Chaves and SK. It's hard to say until they race each other again but then Chaves backed up in the Vuelta and also rode a good race there. But in the first half of the Giro and even later in the race Nibali looked very unconvincing while SK looked comfortable. No one really knows how SK would have finished off the Giro without his crash. Even with the TT in the Giro Quintana obviously thinks he is more likely to win there than beat Froome in the Tour. Dumoulin could still cause problems if he can keep the time losses down, in the mountains.

I agree with most of your post, except when you dismiss Pinot's ITT abilities (see '16 Romandie, French Nationals). I clearly see Pinot ahead of Dumoulin, that is if he finishes.

"Even with the TT in the Giro Quintana obviously thinks he is more likely to win there than beat Froome in the Tour." I agree. And it's sad. I thought that he had broken the curse at the Vuelta...

The problem with Pinot is that yes he can do a good TT but he will still have bad days in the mountains. I would agree with you if he could be more consistent with his climbing. Like TJVG he seems to get ill quite a lot as well or not cope with bad weather. Bardet seems to have jumped ahead of Pinot now but I hope Pinot gets back to his best as it will make the podium battles more interesting. A healthy Pinot in good form will threaten the podium but he has to be consistent. TJVG has slipped even further, I think his career is at the crossroads. Another season like 2016, I am not sure who would want to sign him.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Like TJVG he seems to get ill quite a lot as well or not cope with bad weather.

Pinot is better in cold conditions than in hot weather. Last year he was shitty in the Pyrenees except in the cold Plateau de Beille stage where he was able to follow the main GC contenders.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Like TJVG he seems to get ill quite a lot as well or not cope with bad weather.

Pinot is better in cold conditions than in hot weather. Last year he was shitty in the Pyrenees except in the cold Plateau de Beille stage where he was able to follow the main GC contenders.

By bad weather I meant extreme. Yes he doesn't seem to like the heat but doesn't seem to be affected by it all the time. Maybe he was ill as well.

 

[Isaak-Gabriel]

I would love to see him to try like 2014 the double Giro-Vuelta and come back on TDF 2018 for the win. What do you think of this idea ?