Couldn't post last night, so here's a catch-up.
Luck's going to have a tough year. We all know that. I do think he'll be a good NFL QB, if the team can surround him with players. You'll see some of my thoughts below on this.
RGIII should end up ROY. Better team. I think he'll make a few more mistakes than Luck, but will show flashes of greatness.
Richardson is exactly what Cleveland needed, badly, after losing Hillis. He's probably the only good RB in the draft who just isn't likely to bust, as he's tough, very strong for his size, and can block and catch the ball, making him valuable on 3rd down.
Kalil - After all the talk, Minnesota took him anyway. I think they wanted him, and tried to make it sound like they didn't to pull this deal. Should do fine there.
Blackmon - Good pickup for a bad JAX team. But the team will still suck and I don't expect him to break any records.
Claiborne - Not shocked Dallas moved up and got him. He'll help as he can start right away. But don't expect miracles.
Barron - TB wanted Claiborne, but they need more than that, and he'll help a troubled defense. Can start right away, but don't expect greatness.
Tannehill - His only hope, only hope, is that Miami determines right from day one that he's going to sit maybe the entire season, and maybe his 2nd year as well. Maybe, maybe he'll be good after that. Maybe. I don't see them doing that in their desperation, and think he'll bust.
Kuechly - Rumor was Seattle was looking for him, but once off the board, they traded out. Will help Carolina. But nothing earth shattering like some predict. Maybe down the line.
Gilmore - Guy didn't look that happy being picked by Buffalo, and I thought he went too high. Don't expect to hear much from him this season.
Other picks after the top ten:
At 13 Arizona got a steal in Michael Floyd. No, Floyd isn't the next great WR. But the fact that he won't have to be the go-to guy, and can sit and relax while the pressure is on Fitzgerald (and Doucet), and learn, could do wonders.
At 14 St. Louis missed out on Blackmon and Floyd. They had all those draft picks, and didn't get either of the top two WR's. But Brockers is a big lineman who can contribute to a team that needs help everywhere.
At 15 - Seattle must know something about their team, and Irvin that we don't. I'm guessing they see their defense for next year, and don't feel they need a down to down player like Coples, Kirkpatrick, Ingram (who I thought they'd take), and that Irvin will fit.
At 20 - Kendall Wright went a little early to TEN. But this gives Jake Locker someone to throw to in a year or so, if he pans out.
Surprised to see NE trade up to get the 21st pick, but Chandler Jones can help them this year I think. The real steal may be their moving up to 25 and getting Dont'a Hightower. With him moving around in the LB spot and rushing the QB, I can see him fitting perfectly into Belichek's defense. Very good 1st round by NE.
At 22 Cleveland picked up Weeden, who will obviously be expected to compete for the starting job, and I think he will. Having Richardson on the team has got to factor in to why the Browns took him. One way or the other he'll probably be the starter before the end of the season. May have a good, if somewhat short career. I liked what Gruden said about him, and the fact in head to head games he beat Luck, RGIII, Tannehill, and Foles.
Surprised at 23 the Lions didn't look at defense, but Reiff, who will play RT and excels at the run. But he's physical and the Lions are looking long term.
At 24 I thought Pittsburgh made a good pick to get DeCastro. While people were expecting defense, the Steelers got a good OG prospect to help an aging team.
At 26 the Texans instantly patched a hole at DE by drafting Mercilus. Don't expect miracles, but they needed him, and he should contribute.
At 28 the Packers took Nick Perry of USC. This is interesting because they now have Matthews, Hawk, and Perry. This could be a shrewd pick as Perry is a blitzer. The Packers simply could not get to the QB enough last year, leaving themselves vulnerable to large gains by opposing teams. This will free up Matthews and Hawk to tackle and pass cover more.
At 30 the 49ers took Jenkins. If they had no one except Davis for Smith to throw to last year, this year they have Crabtree, Ginn, Moss and Manningham, and now Jenkins, plus Davis at TE. Like Floyd to AZ, he won't be expected to be a stud right away, and can learn. A solid pick. IF Alex Smith can continue to improve his passing game a little. But the 49ers also gave up too many sacks last year, so I'm curious what they do next.
At the end of the round the Buccaneers took Doug Martin at RB. He can block and receive, which Bount is weak at, so if Josh Freeman can play well...
The Giants also took a RB in David Wilson. this surprised the heck out of me. Yes, they had a terrible running game last year. But what I saw of Wilson didn't impress me that much, and the Giants have holes to fill at WR and on defense. Maybe they know something I don't. Probably.
Second round coming up.
The Rams will either take OT Gordy Glenn who a lot of people thought would go in the 1st round. If not, they'll take Coby Fleener, the Stanford TE. The Colts would love to get Fleener, obviously. So this should be interesting.
The Ravens traded their 1st round pick away, but have some decent spots coming up. They need some OL help, and DL help. Courtney Upshaw from Alabama is there, and if Glenn is there, they'll take him.
Celevland has the 37th pick, Holmgren has been shrewd so far in this draft, and I'm curious who they take. It has to be either a receiver, and if Fleener is there (he won't be) or Randle of LSU they'll take him. If both are gone, and they could be to the Rams and Colts, look for Steven Hill of GT to go.
Look for Seattle to be more conservative and take the best DL or DB on the board when they pick at 43.
The Rams have to get a receiver. Assuming Fleener and Randle are gone, Samu of Rutgers is there. But he's no Blackmon or Floyd.
I notice the Patriots have another pick at 48 and at 62. Look for another versatile LB or DB to fit Belicheck's system. I hate to say it, but if the Patriots can make use of these five top draft picks this high in the draft, they could be scary good this year.
Beyond there, it gets harder for me to pick. Leave it up to Gruden and Kiper and the other experts today.