Nibali at the same level as Froome/Contador?

[whittashau]

Based on how Nibali was cornering I feel he was taking it fairly easy. I know he said he was going to give it a real go yesterday, but I'm sure once he saw Tony's insane performance he knew it was futile.

 

[Rollthedice]

After today's time trial, I think Froome and Contador would have beaten Nibali in the discipline, but if the margin would have been enough to nullify the cobbles and how the mountains would have panned out, I have no idea.

As with every supposition in these past weeks, this is a supposition. I think Nibali had more left in the tank than he showed today as in numerous stages after he took control of the race.

 

[sir fly]

Based on how Nibali was cornering I feel he was taking it fairly easy. I know he said he was going to give it a real go yesterday, but I'm sure once he saw Tony's insane performance he knew it was futile.

I agree he was taking it easy, but Tony's performance I wouldn't call insane. And that's what assures me Contador and Froome would have been very, very close to Martin.
In such circumstances Nibali would, also, have gone faster, and that's where the speculation regarding the margin begins, imo.

 

[Cookster15]

I agree he was taking it easy, but Tony's performance I wouldn't call insane. And that's what assures me Contador and Froome would have been very, very close to Martin.
In such circumstances Nibali would, also, have gone faster, and that's where the speculation regarding the margin begins, imo.

A good summary of my thoughts. I have generally said Nibali deserves to be considered as being at the same level as Froome/Contador. But then Froome would have finished very close to Martin in TT IMO. Contador probably at about 60 secs. So Nibali finished 2 minutes down but didn't go at the absolute limit. To consciously ride slightly below your limit could easily concede 60 seconds.

A take no prisoners attitude would have seen Nibs go all out but I don't think he has that mentality - especially with 7 minutes lead and no pressure. There would be more risk to Nibali in crashing by pushing the corners and descents when there was no need.

So the jury is still undecided IMO. A shame really we never got to see a proper head to head between all three. Contador and Froome's reputations are already entrenched but I feel Nibali deserves more recognition.

 

[karlboss]

I think the problem with this argument is that it isn't a fictional apples-to-apples comparison. In reality, Nibali hasn't been pushed, in any stage, since Stage 8 when Contador tested his legs. The lack of cumulative fatigue that he might have endured had Froome and Contador stayed healthy is therefor missing. This isn't an attempt to diminish completing a GT, it's plenty hard enough, but Nibali himself admits he's never really been pushed to the limit this tour. So regardless of where he finishes relative to Tony Martin, who arguably has put FAR more into this Tour than Nibali (arguably, it is of course debatable), isn't really a good yardstick of how he would have finished against Contador and Froome if they had managed to stay healthy (since he's undoubtably fresher now than he would have been if they'd stayed in the race).

Considered this already when i came up with my numbers, these of course are my numbers you can continue to think whatever you'd like.
I'll stick with my numbers in light of that time trial, Nibali wouldn't have held onto his lead when Contador and Froome went out.

 

[toolittle]

Agreed. Not at the same level, but very close.

For me:

Climbing - Froome = Contador > Nibali
TT - Froome > Contador = Nibali
Descending - Nibali > Contador > Froome
Tactics - Contador = Nibali > Froome

Climbing (x4):
Froome 9
Contador 9
Nibali 8

TT (x2)
Froome 9
Contador 7.5
Nibali 7.5

Descending (x1)
Froome 7
Contador 8
Nibali 9

Tactics (x1)
Froome 6
Contador 8
Nibali 8

Overall:
Froome 8.375
Contador 8.375
Nibali 8

Nibali was better on the cobbles this year, as expected, but then again that type of stage rarely features in a stage race.

All three are top notch GC racers. Together with Quintana they're way ahead of the rest.

There is chris horner. Nibali just can't follow his accelation in last Veulta.

 

[Netserk]

Looking at numbers, Nibali's win this year is the most dominant since Armstrong in 2004 and if we dont include Armstrong we have to go back to Ullrich in 1997 to find a more dominant win. However, Nibali's competition is probably among the worste since 1997 as well.

How exactly was Armstrong in 2004 more dominant than Nibali this year?

 

[Miburo]

How exactly was Armstrong in 2004 more dominant than Nibali this year?

You've a point there, did LA ever rode away from all his opponents in the mountains? I don't think he ever really dropped Basso, might be wrong though.

 

[Jspear]

You've a point there, did LA ever rode away from all his opponents in the mountains? I don't think he ever really dropped Basso, might be wrong though.

In 2004 Basso was nearly always on his wheel in the 2nd and 3rd weeks. Except for the 1st big mountain stage which LA gifted to Basso (I think he did, some might say he didn't), Lance always just out sprinted Basso, gaining a couple of seconds. The majority of his time was made up in the TT's. But LA and Basso never attacked each other a ton though - Lance would usually attack from the selected group, Basso would follow and then they'd ride a hard tempo to the finish. He didn't ever need to drop Basso because he was such a poor time trialist.

 

[Carols]

Well I still don't know how to vote. He certainly has to be considered in the top three bike riders in the world. A true all arounder who has a real chance at a classic win to go with his classic podiums. Plus All Three GTs, an accomplishment only 6 men have attained. That is heady stuff!

As far as winning this Tour my speculation is that he would have held on, maybe by a very slim margin. After all 2:37 is a Large Advantage when he was Strong throughout the entire race. Just never put a foot wrong once; held yellow for an astounding 18 days! Granted he stomped all over much lesser, but he did it by almost 8 mins. That is A Lot of time!

Only the perspective of time and history can tell us where any of these three fit in. Alberto will be regarded as a legend IMO. The other two have more work to do in that regard. But Nibali sure is making a bid for it!

 

[icefire]

Going back in time searching for TdF wins over 7 min I recall 1988. Was Delgado at the level of LeMond and Fignon?

 

[rzombie1988]

Just want to let it be known, again, that Nibali has never beaten Froome or Contador in a GT. Can say whatever you want, but he has never done it. It's hard for me to buy that this would have been his lucky year with both of them in it. Also have to mention the 2011 Giro destruction where Nibs lost almost 7 minutes on Contador, who was gifting stages and didn't even need to go 100%.

The 7 minutes win for Nibs is good and all but it's against Pinot and Peraud. Froome had 14 minutes on Pinot in 2012, even being the second man. Froome Against Peraud in 2012? He had 1 hour and 37 minutes. These two would have been owned.

 

[Afrank]

Just want to let it be known, again, that Nibali has never beaten Froome or Contador in a GT. Can say whatever you want, but he has never done it. It's hard for me to buy that this would have been his lucky year with both of them in it. Also have to mention the 2011 Giro destruction where Nibs lost almost 7 minutes on Contador, who was gifting stages and didn't even need to go 100%.

Then I would just like it to be known, Nibali is now one of only 6th cyclists to win all 3 GT's.

The 7 minutes win for Nibs is good and all but it's against Pinot and Peraud. Froome had 14 minutes on Pinot in 2012, even being the second man. Froome Against Peraud in 2012? He had 1 hour and 37 minutes. These two would have been owned.

Is Froome's gap to Peraud in 2012 really a fair comparison? He went down in Metz and lost 2 minutes and lost a further 4 minutes the next day. Once your out of the GC fight you don't really keep trying for a high GC. You go for stages (which he did later, 2nd on stage Miller won).

Pinot has also improved much from 2012 as well.

 

[plagioni]

Just want to let it be known, again, that Nibali has never beaten Froome or Contador in a GT. Can say whatever you want, but he has never done it. It's hard for me to buy that this would have been his lucky year with both of them in it. Also have to mention the 2011 Giro destruction where Nibs lost almost 7 minutes on Contador, who was gifting stages and didn't even need to go 100%.

The 7 minutes win for Nibs is good and all but it's against Pinot and Peraud. Froome had 14 minutes on Pinot in 2012, even being the second man. Froome Against Peraud in 2012? He had 1 hour and 37 minutes. These two would have been owned.

He beat Froome in 2010 Giro. Even though he didn't even manage to finish the race. So I guess that doesn't count

 

[IndianCyclist]

There are few things that point to Nibali's condition w.r.t Contador/Froome(C/F).
1. The Dauphine was where it was clearly evident that NIbali was way off. There was no way in which he was going to train and become the equal of the C/F
2. The one face off between Contador and Nibali on an incline happened with Nibali following Contador and losing a few seconds
3. In the Hautacam stage, Nibali accelerated twice. After the second acceleration he was breathing hard. There was no way that would have happened to C/F. Nibali would be dropped on the 3rd-4th acceleration by C/F. Anaerobically he was not good enough.
4. Losing 2 mins to Martin means losing 1 min to C/F.
My guess is that his loss per mountain stage would be 15-30 s with TT loss ~ 30 s which would have seen him lose the tour by less than a min to C/F.

 

[whittashau]

4. Losing 2 mins to Martin means losing 1 min to C/F.
My guess is that his loss per mountain stage would be 15-30 s with TT loss ~ 30 s which would have seen him lose the tour by less than a min to C/F.

I'm not even going to touch your other points, but Nibali could have gone at least 30 seconds better in the corners alone. He didn't go all out at all.

 

[cineteq]

4. Losing 2 mins to Martin means losing 1 min to C/F.
My guess is that his loss per mountain stage would be 15-30 s with TT loss ~ 30 s which would have seen him lose the tour by less than a min to C/F.

Maybe to Froome, but not Contador. When was the last time you saw Contador winning a GT ITT? Contador easily would have lost 2:30 minutes or more to Martin.

 

[whittashau]

I disagree with that too. AC has shown this year that he is TTing better again.

I believe Froome would have been about a minute behind, and Contador and Nibali about 20-30 seconds behind him.

 

[Pantani_lives]

I finally solved the big What If question. If Contador and Froome had been there Pinot would have won the Tour, using the rivalry between the big three to his advantage.

 

[guncha]

To me Nibali is at least as good as Froome because he has won more GTs than Froome. Multiple crashes of Froome is an indication that Nibali was better prepared. CF also looked much better in Dauphine 13 than in Dapuhine 14. Possibly it is harder to defend the title than to win it for the first time.

Contador looked to be better prepared than last year. However, in cobbles AC lost more to Nibali than to Andy in 2010. It could have been an epic and equal battle like in 2010. With 4 stage wins I have no reason to doubt the form of Nibali. Possibly an ability to avoid crashes makes the difference. Riders who won multiple TDFs in a row were good in avoiding them.

 

[number0]

and Ferrari said.....

http://www.53x12.com/do/show?page=indepth.view&id=148

 

[InterestedSpectator]

Trouble is, you could vote 'No' meaning you think Nibali is above their level. I think he may be now. He had all-round impressive performance.

 

[SKSemtex]

and Ferrari said.....

http://www.53x12.com/do/show?page=indepth.view&id=148

Thanks for link. Quite interesting articles there

 

[spanky wanderlust]

the op poll is frustrating.

all of the evidence from early season stage races and the dauphine points to cf not being on form.

he was not at 2012/13 levels. and the probability of him dnf-ing was about 50% by my estimation, which he did.

if he had stayed in the race, he would have been shelled badly. i have him 10+ min back by the itt. he'd have been hanging back there with bauke mollema.

contador was on form; rumored his best form ever. if that were the case he would have been stronger than nibs in the mtns. he might have taken a few seconds out of him in the tt.

the question is whether he would have gotten that 2.5 min back. when he crashed out i was thinking he could easily do it.

after watching nibali the rest of the race, i think he would not. nibs was VERY impressive to me.

 

[arvc40]

Nibali will never beat Froome or Contador in a GT. For him to win they will both have to crash out.

No way is he at there level.