Nibali next year programe giro or tour?

[Netserk]

Facts about Nibali in the 2009 tour:

He was 24 years old.

He came 7th in the GC beaten by: Contador, A Schleck, Armstrong, Wiggins, F Schlech and Klöden.

GC guys who weren't there, or in bad shape: Cadel Evans, Dennis Menchov, Samuel Sanchez, Alejandro Velverde and (Robert Gesink).

His best stage result was a 3rd place at Verbier.

He had the 4th best time in the mountains, only beaten by Conti & the Schlecks.

The real question is: Has he improved? -I say yes.

 

[The Hitch]

Yeah, and I know another one who did beat Scarponi at that Giro, but still didn't do that great at the Tour

How on earth will Nibali do what Evans did, that is pull the entire group of favourites closer to Andy Schleck on the Galibier, and nearly beat Tony Martin in a time trial? He's just a class below Evans.

For once youve let your dislike of Nibali, take over your comprehension.

The Evans example wasnt meant to suggest Nibali could win the Tour and everyone knows this.

It was there to show that Scarponi is not such a bad climber, and more importantly that Nibali could top 5 the Tour ( the discussion subject).

 

[theyoungest]

For once youve let your dislike of Nibali, take over your comprehension.

The Evans example wasnt meant to suggest Nibali could win the Tour and everyone knows this.

It was there to show that Scarponi is not such a bad climber, and more importantly that Nibali could top 5 the Tour ( the discussion subject).

I don't dislike Nibali. Somehow if you don't overrate the guy, you're a hater on this forum. I just think that a top-5 in the Tour will be very difficult. What speaks in his favour is that he's a very complete rider, but as both a climber and time trialist he comes up short IMO. The Tour climbs might suit him a little better though.

Your point about Scarponi, I don't really get. After all he's proven in two consecutive Giros that he's a better climber than Nibali, so what does this say about the latter?

 

[El Pistolero]

Scarponi is one of the most underrated climbers on this forum.

 

[Kwibus]

I don't dislike Nibali. Somehow if you don't overrate the guy, you're a hater on this forum. I just think that a top-5 in the Tour will be very difficult. What speaks in his favour is that he's a very complete rider, but as both a climber and time trialist he comes up short IMO. The Tour climbs might suit him a little better though.

Your point about Scarponi, I don't really get. After all he's proven in two consecutive Giros that he's a better climber than Nibali, so what does this say about the latter?

If anything Nibali proofed is that people usually underestimate him.

 

[The Hitch]

I don't dislike Nibali. Somehow if you don't overrate the guy, you're a hater on this forum. I just think that a top-5 in the Tour will be very difficult.

If you are talking about top 5, why this comment then?

How on earth will Nibali do what Evans did, that is pull the entire group of favourites closer to Andy Schleck on the Galibier, and nearly beat Tony Martin in a time trial?

You seem to think maltiv expects Nibali to win the think. He doesnt, he is suggesting that Nibali can top 5.

Yes Scarponi is a better climber than Nibali. I got a lot of slack for saying that for 10 months up unitl May 2011. Good to see everyone else agrees now.

The point with Scarponi was that someone suggested that if Nibali cant beat Scarponi he cant do **** in the tour (presumably thinking that Scarponi is crap for some unknown reason). Someone else then pointed out rightly that Scarponi also beat Evans that year, so he cant be that crap.

So losing to Scarponi doesnt mean someone cant do well at the Tour.

Lets also consider that Nibali was only slightly worse than Evans in the 2010 GIro, so he cant be that bad can he.

 

[kurtinsc]

Scarponi is one of the most underrated climbers on this forum.

I agree with that. But I also think Nibali is a bit underrated as well.

He's not going to beat an in-shape Contador. He can't climb as well as Andy.

But aside from that, when he peaks he's as good as anyone else out there. He's a podium threat for any GT he enters.

 

[roundabout]

Scarpony?

Pffft. It's pretty difficult to rate the guy considering his career.

And Nibali isn't consistent enough on big mountain stages to ever be a contender on courses that aren't jokes like the 2010 Vuelta.

 

[kurtinsc]

Scarpony?

Pffft. It's pretty difficult to rate the guy considering his career.

And Nibali isn't consistent enough on big mountain stages to ever be a contender on courses that aren't jokes like the 2010 Vuelta.

What about his Giro podiums. Those weren't weak parcours.


As I said, he's not beating an in-form contador.

But here are his time finishes behind the best rider not named Alberto Contador.

2007 Giro - 19th (30.42 behind 1st place Di Luca)
2008 Giro - 11th (18.17 behind 2nd place Ricco)
2008 Tour - 20th (28.33 behind 1st place Sastre)
2009 Tour - 7th (3:24 behind 2nd place Schleck)
2010 Giro - 3rd (2:37 behind 1st place Basso, a teammate, and 46 seconds behind 2nd placa Aroyo)
2010 Vuelta - 1st
2011 Giro - 3rd (46 seconds behind 2nd place Scarponi)
2011 Vuelta - 7th (4:31 behind 1st place Cobo)

Simply put, that is the palmares of a podium contender in GT's who is entering his prime.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

lol, against what competition? and he hasn't improved much at all. if you can't beat scarponi in a giro then top 5 in the tour, no chance, also because there's many itt km in and nibali will lose quite a bit there to his real competitors, also guys like wiggins can take 4 minutes there total.

He could not beat Wiggins in 2009 TDF, he could still not beat Wiggins in 2011 Vuelta. So yeah,0 progression

 

[The Hitch]

Im not going to dignify that with a response.

 

[Tei6chai]

He could not beat Wiggins in 2009 TDF, he could still not beat Wiggins in 2011 Vuelta. So yeah,0 progression

Not exactly ipso facto, is it?

A counter hypothesis: Wiggins's progression was greater than Nibali's (but Nibali still progressed).

Wiggins had never previously ridden for the GC in any GT and didn't start the 2009 TdF with that intention. Wiggins first real attempt at 2010 TdF taught him how not to. So the the 2011 Vuelta was Wiggins's first well-planned and executed GC assault. Hardly surprising, therefore, that he should progress more quickly than Nibali, who had been on the GC track from a very young age.

Neither hypothesis has any bearing on the assertion that Nibali is/isn't good enough.

 

[Eshnar]

Can we just agree that Nibali wasn't on form in the Vuelta this year? Just like Scarponi wasn't.

 

[roundabout]

What about his Giro podiums. Those weren't weak parcours.


As I said, he's not beating an in-form contador.

But here are his time finishes behind the best rider not named Alberto Contador.

2007 Giro - 19th (30.42 behind 1st place Di Luca)
2008 Giro - 11th (18.17 behind 2nd place Ricco)
2008 Tour - 20th (28.33 behind 1st place Sastre)
2009 Tour - 7th (3:24 behind 2nd place Schleck)
2010 Giro - 3rd (2:37 behind 1st place Basso, a teammate, and 46 seconds behind 2nd placa Aroyo)
2010 Vuelta - 1st
2011 Giro - 3rd (46 seconds behind 2nd place Scarponi)
2011 Vuelta - 7th (4:31 behind 1st place Cobo)

Simply put, that is the palmares of a podium contender in GT's who is entering his prime.

He was floundering twice in the Giro this year on arguably the toughest stages.
His worst day in the Vuelta he won was on the toughest stage and about the only stage that was more than 1 climb.
He lost 2:18 of the 3:24 to Schleck on the single toughest stage in 2009
In 2010 Giro he benefited from the group behind looking around on the Aprica

He can finish on the podium but winning would require a very special course as evidenced by the apparent decision of the Liquigas management to start with Basso in the Giro as they fully well know that Basso is a better bet on that kind of route

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Nibali is never on form when he isn't 1st according to these forums so sorry if i refuse to take that seriously

 

[Eshnar]

Nibali is never on form when he isn't 1st according to these forums so sorry if i refuse to take that seriously

Then are you gonna rate him taking into account his lesser results only?
Seriously?

 

[Havetts]

He was floundering twice in the Giro this year on arguably the toughest stages.
His worst day in the Vuelta he won was on the toughest stage and about the only stage that was more than 1 climb.
He lost 2:18 of the 3:24 to Schleck on the single toughest stage in 2009
In 2010 Giro he benefited from the group behind looking around on the Aprica

He can finish on the podium but winning would require a very special course as evidenced by the apparent decision of the Liquigas management to start with Basso in the Giro as they fully well know that Basso is a better bet on that kind of route

Nailed it, can't agree with this more.

 

[cineteq]

Can we just agree that Nibali wasn't on form in the Vuelta this year? Just like Scarponi wasn't.

Absolutely. Besides he got injured when Tyler Farrar caused a big crash on the early stages.

Did any rider stay in great form after the Giro?
Contador, Nibali, Scarponi, Rodriguez, Antón, Menchov, Gadret, Kruijswijk, Kreuziger? Did I miss anyone?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Good that you mention Rodriguez, Kruijswijk and Gadret, guys who climbed better than Nibali in the last week of the Giro.

And people think Nibali is top 5 material in the Tour? Hardly.

 

[maltiv]

For once youve let your dislike of Nibali, take over your comprehension.

The Evans example wasnt meant to suggest Nibali could win the Tour and everyone knows this.

It was there to show that Scarponi is not such a bad climber, and more importantly that Nibali could top 5 the Tour ( the discussion subject).

This.

It also shines through every single time something like this is discussed that some people seem to take into account that all favorites will be there and be in top shape. That will never happen. Someone will crash, someone will get sick, someone will simply not be in shape. It's getting ridiculous when people say that Nibali podiumed 3 gts only because x, y and z weren't there. That is always the case and will be the case next year too. Of course Nibali can and is likely to end in the top 5, saying anything else is absurd.

 

[maltiv]

Good that you mention Rodriguez, Kruijswijk and Gadret, guys who climbed better than Nibali in the last week of the Giro.

And people think Nibali is top 5 material in the Tour? Hardly.

Before 2010 TDF Jurgen Vandenbroeck's best GT result was 7th at the Giro. At this point he was older than Nibali is now, and was getting outclimbed consistently by the best and the second best. Clearly he was "hardly" top 5 material in the TDF either.

Not to mention Wiggins, Voeckler, CVV, Oscar Pereiro...

 

[Eshnar]

Good that you mention Rodriguez, Kruijswijk and Gadret, guys who climbed better than Nibali in the last week of the Giro.

Actually they climbed better only in the Finestre stage. But Nibali climbed better than them at Macugnaga.

 

[Greenflame]

Nibali won't win this Tour, I don't think anyone is doubting that. On the other hand, he is a big candidate for a top-5 position, and could compete for a stage win or two (even if just by using his descending skills). Basso on the other hand would be hopeless in the Tour this year, while he has a nice chance of winning the Giro on this route. I think Liquigas made the right choice here by sending Nibali to the Tour. Besides, it will be interesting to see how well Nibali manages against the likes of Sanchez, Gesink, VDB and Wiggins.

I'm very biased here, but I have faith in Nibali. He's a clever guy, I'm sure he will be able to build up a nice palmares within the next few years. He'll probably never win the Tour, but I think he can definitely take a Giro or two, add an extra Vuelta, perhaps a Tour podium and some stages, some one week races and the Giro di Lombardia. I can see him retiring with a much better palmares than guys like Gesink and VDB, who will just focus on the Tour year after year and keep getting nice top classifications, but won't ever win it.

 

[cineteq]

Good that you mention Rodriguez, Kruijswijk and Gadret, guys who climbed better than Nibali in the last week of the Giro.

And people think Nibali is top 5 material in the Tour? Hardly.

This year's Giro was an aberration, I should not be considered as a reference at all, as my question about who was in form after the Giro became rhetorical. Plus it's kind of weak that the guys that you mentioned have never won or podium-ed any GT.

 

[Kwibus]

Can we just agree that Nibali wasn't on form in the Vuelta this year? Just like Scarponi wasn't.

I can't think of a rider that did well in the Giro that also performed well in another GT that year really. Well Contador 5th in the TdF is still pretty good, but not for Contador.