Nibali next year programe giro or tour?

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May 25, 2010
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
Good that you mention Rodriguez, Kruijswijk and Gadret, guys who climbed better than Nibali in the last week of the Giro.

And people think Nibali is top 5 material in the Tour? Hardly.

Didn't Nibali hit you in the face before when he won the Vuelta in 2010? When you said he didn't have a chance etc. I agreed with you back then, but by now I know not to underestimate Nibali. I can find plenty of reasons he won't make it into the top5 in the TdF, but I also found plenty of reasons why Nibali wouldn't win the Vuelta in 2010 and why Nibali would crack big time on the Zoncolan which he didn't etc.
I think he is able to place 4th or 5th if he's in good form. He could also very well end up 8th or 10th, but it's certainly possible for him to reach top 5 imo.
 
Jun 14, 2010
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Eshnar said:
:confused:
Actually they climbed better only in the Finestre stage. But Nibali climbed better than them at Macugnaga.


And Nvegal. Didnt he come 2nd there? What with the 10% grades and all.

Ooops.
 
Jun 14, 2010
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cineteq said:
Absolutely. Besides he got injured when Tyler Farrar caused a big crash on the early stages.

Did any rider stay in great form after the Giro?
Contador, Nibali, Scarponi, Rodriguez, Antón, Menchov, Gadret, Kruijswijk, Kreuziger? Did I miss anyone? :rolleyes:

Youve been arguing very strongly that Contador was on form for the Tour.

Now when arguing a diferent topic, you change your tune completely.

So was Contador on form or off?
 
Jun 10, 2010
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
Nibali is never on form when he isn't 1st according to these forums so sorry if i refuse to take that seriously
Gesink wasn't in top form at the 2010 Tour according to you and you come out with this crap about Nibali?
 
Jan 11, 2010
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hrotha said:
Gesink wasn't in top form at the 2010 Tour according to you and you come out with this crap about Nibali?
With Gesink it was somewhat measurable, what with a fracture in his wrist and all.
 
Mar 17, 2009
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Nibali back in 09 ended up in 7th place at the Tour -and that was his first "real" try out-he has evolved & developed his skills at a higher level from back then. I think he'll deliver the next year some good results-although I cannot foresee him winning it YET, he's well capable of making podium. I seriously believe his time as a sole leader of Liquigas has arrived & is up to him to demonstrate it, perhaps with Basso as a deluxe SuperDomestique, but not the horrendous two-leader BS..
 
Jun 14, 2010
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theyoungest said:
With Gesink it was somewhat measurable, what with a fracture in his wrist and all.

Its measurable with Nibali too.

He comes 3rd in a very hard gt with a very good lineup, finishing ahead of Scarponi and Cadel Evans.

He wins a gt with a very weak lineup.

He comes 3rd in a very hard gt with a very good lineup.

______

He comes 7th in a easier gt with what Ruben always likes to remind us was a very very weak lineup.

Somethings not right in the last case is it?
 
Aug 5, 2010
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DT's and theyoungest nibali dislike is pretty funny.

about the vuelta nibali himself said that he thought he would me more tired from the giro then he actually was so he didn't race as much as he actually should have to hit the vuelta on form.

even i know that nibali can't win the tour but he certainly can top 5 and maybe even podium
 
May 20, 2009
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The Hitch said:
So was Contador on form or off?
I'm going to answer your question with my own posted question, please read carefully: Did any rider stay in great form after the Giro?
You do the math. :D
 
Mar 31, 2010
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hfer07 said:
Nibali back in 09 ended up in 7th place at the Tour -and that was his first "real" try out-he has evolved & developed his skills at a higher level from back then. I think he'll deliver the next year some good results-although I cannot foresee him winning it YET, he's well capable of making podium. I seriously believe his time as a sole leader of Liquigas has arrived & is up to him to demonstrate it, perhaps with Basso as a deluxe SuperDomestique, but not the horrendous two-leader BS..

th 2009 tour wa sthe biggest joke of the decade. they softpedaled everywhere possible to get lance and or kloden on the podium and even wiggins was one of the best climbers there. hilarious. worse possibly even than 2008 with vandevelde
 
Jun 14, 2010
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cineteq said:
I'm going to answer your question with my own posted question, please read carefully: Did any rider stay in great form after the Giro?
You do the math. :D

Level the above post with this then.


cineteq said:
Evans is the best TTer of the 2 hands down. Proven in this year's TdF. Cased closed.
 
Mar 13, 2009
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maltiv said:
Before 2010 TDF Jurgen Vandenbroeck's best GT result was 7th at the Giro. At this point he was older than Nibali is now, and was getting outclimbed consistently by the best and the second best. Clearly he was "hardly" top 5 material in the TDF either.

Not to mention Wiggins, Voeckler, CVV, Oscar Pereiro...
No not comparable at all, because that was Jurgen VDB's first result, he was building up later.

Nibali has reached his peak in 2010 and will never improve on that, we already saw this year
 
Mar 13, 2009
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El Pistolero said:
Me neither, but to say he can't top 5 at the Tour is stupid lol. Voeckler was fourth this year.
just but if we are counting stupid luck (a break that never would have stayed away without that big fall in the peloton), then 100 riders can ride top 5 in the Tour :rolleyes:
 
Aug 5, 2010
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
No not comparable at all, because that was Jurgen VDB's first result, he was building up later.

Nibali has reached his peak in 2010 and will never improve on that, we already saw this year

how can you be so sure that he won't improve any more?

i would actually say he improved a bit this year both on his climbing and his day by day recovery.

nibali's biggest problem are without a doubt consecutive days of hard mountain stages as he always seem to be in difficulty on the second day in a row of hard mountains. last year he was good on the monte grappa stage and then was nowhere to be seen on the zoncolan this year he also had this problem but was able to cut his losses a lot better, on the second MTF in a row(the zoncolan) he was very strong and on the third day(gardeccia) he was struggling but managed to limit his losses while the year before he lost minutes on the zoncolan. then on the last week he gained time on scarponi the day tiralongo won but was struggling again the day after on finestre once again being able to cut his losses but not well enough to keep his second place overall.

usually riders get better at this kind of consecutive days of big efforts as they reach their peak which is arguably btw 28 and 32 years of age, nibali is 26 atm(almost 27) and you are saying he reached his peak at 25 and won't improve any more. why are you so sure that he has no more progression margin?
 
Jun 22, 2009
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El Pistolero said:
Scarponi is one of the most underrated climbers on this forum.

Maybe, I think he is an excellent rider.
Not sure he really has it in the very tough long cols.
I find him similar to evans, disregarding the tt abilities. He has a lot of fight him also.

roundabout said:
He was floundering twice in the Giro this year on arguably the toughest stages.
His worst day in the Vuelta he won was on the toughest stage and about the only stage that was more than 1 climb.
He lost 2:18 of the 3:24 to Schleck on the single toughest stage in 2009
In 2010 Giro he benefited from the group behind looking around on the Aprica

He can finish on the podium but winning would require a very special course as evidenced by the apparent decision of the Liquigas management to start with Basso in the Giro as they fully well know that Basso is a better bet on that kind of route

Nibbles is certainly inconsistant. I do think he struggles with the gruelling long, unrelenting mountain stages.

To some extents I agree with DT and co. I do not believe he is the best climber, nor do I find him a great ttr. He seems like a jack of all trades, like cuddles but not as good. Looking at his various results, it is almost difficult to analyze his climbing abilities. That being said, for a rider of what I percieved his abilities were he has a remarkable career already. I find him to be an over achiever, whom really grinds out results and pushes himself. And with that in mind, it is impossible for myself to rule out a top 5 at the tour of even a potential a Podium. I do however doubt it, I believe the nature of the giro and vuelta, which is less controlled and more unpredictable benefits nibbles. The tour is tightly controlled, and makes it more difficult for a rider like nibali to succeed like he has done elsewhere (again I take 2009 tour comparisons with a pinch of salt).

Eshnar said:
Can we just agree that Nibali wasn't on form in the Vuelta this year? Just like Scarponi wasn't.

yes. I think the giro really screwed with rider's programs and fatigue.
Scarponi looked bad, nibbles wasn't himself, kruijswijk looked less good, Jrod struggled, Gadret etc really struggled at the tour.

Menchov may have been ok, but I think he was the exception rather then the norm and may have gone into the giro underraced.

Really what a saw this year, makes contador (with the crashes compiled) tour de france performance that much more remarkable.

Dekker_Tifosi said:
He could not beat Wiggins in 2009 TDF, he could still not beat Wiggins in 2011 Vuelta. So yeah,0 progression

It is too convinent to make simple comparisons like that. A lot more variables to it.

Ryo Hazuki said:
th 2009 tour wa sthe biggest joke of the decade. they softpedaled everywhere possible to get lance and or kloden on the podium and even wiggins was one of the best climbers there. hilarious. worse possibly even than 2008 with vandevelde

I do agree with this. I refuse to take any refrence into account with this race.

Dekker_Tifosi said:
No not comparable at all, because that was Jurgen VDB's first result, he was building up later.

Nibali has reached his peak in 2010 and will never improve on that, we already saw this year

I have to disagree. At times he looked stronger this year.
Zoncolan was an excellent effort, even more so when you consider that the numbers suggest it was ridden better then basso in 10' . Of course the giro 10' was unrelenting and riders barely got rest in the first 2 weeks. Crazy stuff.
 
Aug 6, 2010
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kurtinsc said:
What about his Giro podiums. Those weren't weak parcours.


As I said, he's not beating an in-form contador.

But here are his time finishes behind the best rider not named Alberto Contador.

2007 Giro - 19th (30.42 behind 1st place Di Luca)
2008 Giro - 11th (18.17 behind 2nd place Ricco)
2008 Tour - 20th (28.33 behind 1st place Sastre)
2009 Tour - 7th (3:24 behind 2nd place Schleck)
2010 Giro - 3rd (2:37 behind 1st place Basso, a teammate, and 46 seconds behind 2nd placa Aroyo)
2010 Vuelta - 1st
2011 Giro - 3rd (46 seconds behind 2nd place Scarponi)
2011 Vuelta - 7th (4:31 behind 1st place Cobo)

Simply put, that is the palmares of a podium contender in GT's who is entering his prime.

Great post. Nibali is a remarkably consistent GT rider. He has seemingly a horrible Vuelta (for his abilities), yet still ended up within 5 minutes of the winner. Not many other riders can do that (okay, AC in TDF).

Clearly has a great chance of a podium in next years TDF, particularly with some descent finishers. And Basso is my favourite for the Giro, providing Andy doesn't enter it.
 
Mar 10, 2009
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
No not comparable at all, because that was Jurgen VDB's first result, he was building up later.

Nibali has reached his peak in 2010 and will never improve on that, we already saw this year

Never is a very very long time. Many of us, my self included thought Evans would never win the Tour, that his chance had passed and that the should focus on the Vuelta and Giro to get his grand tour win. Of course we were all wrong. Circumstances can appear that make the unlikely seem quite possible.
Nibali is still relatively young and can still improve. He's no Cunego who seems light years away from the grand tour rider that won the Giro in 2004. Only this past Tour has there been even the slightest remnants of consistency through out the 3 weeks of a grand tour although even that top ten finish has to be looked at with the understanding that so many contenders crashed out, skewing the final gc results to a certain degree.
 
Aug 5, 2009
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I don't think Nibali has reached his peak yet but I think the Giro is the more suitable race. The field will be weaker than the TDF and route more suitable for him.
 
Jul 16, 2010
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
just but if we are counting stupid luck (a break that never would have stayed away without that big fall in the peloton), then 100 riders can ride top 5 in the Tour :rolleyes:

He climbed with the heads of state on any other mountain/hilly stage except on Alpe Dhuez stage where he was acting like a complete ***. He also had a great time trial. If anything, he deserved a podium spot there. The time he lost prior to his breakaway were probably done so to allow him to get in a break or simply because he didn't care for a GC back then.
 

airstream

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Mar 29, 2011
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The funny thing is Nibali is considered to be more a TT'er, than a climber (fix me if I'm wrong). But he's good TT'er against the Giro field and rather weak one against Le Tour field. :) He can win the Giro, but top-5 is his maximum on Tour.
 
Jun 10, 2010
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airstream said:
The funny thing is Nibali is considered to be more a TT'er, than a climber (fix me if I'm wrong). But he's good TT'er against the Giro field and rather weak one against Le Tour field. :) He can win the Giro, but top-5 is his maximum on Tour.
He was a better TT'er when he was young, frankly.