Official Lance Armstrong Thread **READ POST #1 BEFORE POSTING**

[Race Radio]

Can you grab Louie the fly on your way?

Back to Lance.. From reading this thread (and other forms of media) he appears to be knee deep in it, as most bar a few can deduce, but this GJ investigation appears to have uncovered that much criminal activity, that there now seems to be more people who should be worried than just Lance? He's toast, or so it seems to me (IMO Louie), but what of others who have aided and abetted? How long is the list and apart from the obvious Armstrong partners (i.e. Tailwind directors, CSE directors, Ferrari, Pat, Hein? etc), who and how many others have been caught in the net? I'm aware of the GJ secrecy provisions, but as RR has alluded to in some of his posts, people talk... What other names have been caught up in this maelstrom?

The entire network will be exposed. From Organizers (Stapleton, Knaggs), designers (Ferrari) couriers (Duffy and others). If Knaggs and Stapleton are smart they will try to work a deal as quickly as possible.

Multiple partners, including Armstrong and Weisel, have already been notified they are targets of the Qui Tam case. The financial exposure for that case is real. If the Feds "Join" the case then the defendants would be smart to negotiate a settlement as they will not win.

I do not see anything that would put Armstrong away for a decade, but there is absolutely the chance he will end up broke. The breadth of his legal issues are staggering

USDA will file a non-analytical positive. This is perhaps his cheapest case, but it will still cost him at least $1,000,000 to fight it and he will still lose

The Qui Tam case has some big financial risk, not just for Lance. He has already hired some lawyers who specialize in these cases. Even if he settles quickly it will cost millions

It is clear Armstrong expects FCPA charges. He has hired legal that are experts in this and it following closely several FCPA cases Doug Miller worked. The financial penalties for these type of cases can be large and the defense expensive. The Feds have stepped up their prosecution of them, 400% increase in the last few years.

Expect SCA, former and current sponsors, and the Times to file to recover $$$

Hard to see how Johan escapes any action in Italy or France. Ferrari is clearly is big trouble. Of all the people involved he will spend the most time in prison.

Ultimately Armstrong's biggest risk is $$$$. Sponsors will flee, speaking engagements will continue to dry up, legal fees and penalties will bleed him dry.

The next 5 years do not look good for any of those guys

 

[aphronesis]

Seems not? You are making this up as you go along?

I have been riding since my early teens, 30 years. I first met him in the late 80's. It was clear he was troubled then.

I tried tried engage you, to understand what your point is. Your response is obfuscation, more silly questions, and claims of editorials I have written.

It is clear I wasted my time

Not sure what riding has to do with it. I've been riding since I could walk. So just as long. Big deal.

So you saw he was troubled back then. Thrilling. Ninety percent of the people acculturated in this society would make the same observation. Some make it pathological. Others celebrate it. Obviously we've seen many who have done both. Those of us with better things to do stopped paying attention a long time ago.

My response was not claims of editorials that you have written, nor, and this seems really difficult for you to get your head around, the accusation of being a journalist. Anyone can write an editorial--or try to. They may not get published. Check out the bylines sometime on an op-ed page. Many are not written by journalists.

That question was not silly and not obfuscating (the fact, by the way, that your posts, speaking generously, have about 15 stock responses and characterizations of anyone's approach to a topic is its own form of obfuscation--many would consider it a form of bullying.)

I can't make a point for you that you will understand--let alone not ridicule. My question to you was what you did to counter the myth before the comeback? By complaining to your friends? Or did you make some public intervention. And let's be clear here, I don't know who you are, nor want to; I'm asking about the point at which you developed some integrity in relation to this exciting saga? 2006?

 

[Benotti69]

The entire network will be exposed. From Organizers (Stapleton, Knaggs), designers (Ferrari) couriers (Duffy and others). If Knaggs and Stapleton are smart they will try to work a deal as quickly as possible.

Multiple partners, including Armstrong and Weisel, have already been notified they are targets of the Qui Tam case. The financial exposure for that case is real. If the Feds "Join" the case then the defendants would be smart to negotiate a settlement as they will not win.

I do not see anything that would put Armstrong away for a decade, but there is absolutely the chance he will end up broke. The breadth of his legal issues are staggering

USDA will file a non-analytical positive. This is perhaps his cheapest case, but it will still cost him at least $1,000,000 to fight it and he will still lose

The Qui Tam case has some big financial risk, not just for Lance. He has already hired some lawyers who specialize in these cases. Even if he settles quickly it will cost millions

It is clear Armstrong expects FCPA charges. He has hired legal that are experts in this and it following closely several FCPA cases Doug Miller worked. The financial penalties for these type of cases can be large and the defense expensive. The Feds have stepped up their prosecution of them, 400% increase in the last few years.

Expect SCA, former and current sponsors, and the Times to file to recover $$$

Hard to see how Johan escapes any action in Italy or France. Ferrari is clearly is big trouble. Of all the people involved he will spend the most time in prison.

Ultimately Armstrong's biggest risk is $$$$. Sponsors will flee, speaking engagements will continue to dry up, legal fees and penalties will bleed him dry.

The next 5 years do not look good for any of those guys

I agree with this synopsis. He will probably avoid jail time but it will cost him big $$$$$ and all he has in the bank not to mention his reputation will never recover.

 

[Race Radio]

Not sure what riding has to do with it. I've been riding since I could walk. So just as long. Big deal.

So you saw he was troubled back then. Thrilling. Ninety percent of the people acculturated in this society would make the same observation. Some make it pathological. Others celebrate it. Obviously we've seen many who have done both. Those of us with better things to do stopped paying attention a long time ago.

My response was not claims of editorials that you have written, nor, and this seems really difficult for you to get your head around, the accusation of being a journalist. Anyone can write an editorial--or try to. They may not get published. Check out the bylines sometime on an op-ed page. Many are not written by journalists.

That question was not silly and not obfuscating (the fact, by the way, that your posts, speaking generously, have about 15 stock responses and characterizations of anyone's approach to a topic is its own form of obfuscation--many would consider it a form of bullying.)

I can't make a point for you that you will understand--let alone not ridicule. My question to you was what you did to counter the myth before the comeback? By complaining to your friends? Or did you make some public intervention. And let's be clear here, I don't know who you are, nor want to; I'm asking about the point at which you developed some integrity in relation to this exciting saga? 2006?

At this point it is clear you are just trolling for a confrontation. I answered your question, you have ignored it.

 

[Benotti69]

At this point it is clear you are just trolling for a confrontation. I answered your question, you have ignore it.

Live$trong and public stratagies must be spending the last of the money on a final campaign.

 

[aphronesis]

At this point it is clear you are just trolling for a confrontation. I answered your question, you have ignored it.

Actually, that's not true. I'm asking for a more substantive articulation of the issues here--rather than scumbag, doper, cheat, bully, fraud, etc.

Specifically, yesterday, I was asking one poster to define one of these issues.

And, like clockwork, a good majority of the usuals came out swinging--chanting the litanies.

Contrary to what you have chosen to believe--or at least state--I have zero interest in confrontation. I find, however, that this much of this thread is largely defined by a particular form of bigotry (let's not call it hate, hey?) and that that's deeply uninteresting to read when looking for actual information on the subject.

 

[Susan Westemeyer]

Contrary to what you have chosen to believe--or at least state--I have zero interest in confrontation. I find, however, that this much of this thread is largely defined by a particular form of bigotry (let's not call it hate, hey?) and that that's deeply uninteresting to read when looking for actual information on the subject.

That is extremely difficult to believe. Your posts are extremely aggressive. Please consider this an official warning.

If you are not happy with the responses you are getting here, you are free to look for another forum which suits your needs.

Susan

 

[thehog]

I would say that the writing has been on the wall since all his supporters started to preface their defense with "I think he doped, but..." or "I am not an Armstrong fan, but..." It's only a matter of time before that sentiment filters through the general population.

Its a lot like Enron. Skilling to this day still claims he knew nothing of the debts. Even when sentenced to 24 years jail he was jumping up and down that he'd done a good job.

Interesting to note that Ley, Skilling and Fastow all turned on each other when charges began to set in. I think you'll see the same with Armstrong and cohorts.

Fastow was the smartest. Ley and Skilling blamed him. He accepted 10 years paid a $23 million fine and will be out in 7 with another $25m still in the bank. (edit: he's now at the halfway house and sentenced to 6).

Skilling denied and denied and paid his lawyers a $23 million retainer and still got 24 years. He's still trying to appeal. He reminds me the most of Lance. He will never admit that he's done wrong. Skilling's trial was full of "I do not recall" and "That is not what happened - cashing in all my stock 6 months before the collapse was done in the best interest of the company" etc etc etc.

Ley died of cancer and sadly Skilling only son killed himself a short time ago.

Its such a sad story and there are many correlations with the USPS/TailWind saga.

Be interesting to see how this one ends... what men will do for money.

I'm not sure who will end up being Lou Pai....

 

[Dr. Maserati]

Actually, that's not true. I'm asking for a more substantive articulation of the issues here--rather than scumbag, doper, cheat, bully, fraud, etc.

Specifically, yesterday, I was asking one poster to define one of these issues.

You didn't really ask anything - you had a conclusion based on me buying his book even though I knew he doped, I repeated that was not the case yet you continued to ignore that.
So, yes if you ignore my answer, then I will ignore you.

And, like clockwork, a good majority of the usuals came out swinging--chanting the litanies.

Contrary to what you have chosen to believe--or at least state--I have zero interest in confrontation. I find, however, that this much of this thread is largely defined by a particular form of bigotry (let's not call it hate, hey?) and that that's deeply uninteresting to read when looking for actual information on the subject.

When you keep asking the wrong questions then it does not matter what answer you come to.

 

[thehog]

That is extremely difficult to believe. Your posts are extremely aggressive. Please consider this an official warning.

If you are not happy with the responses you are getting here, you are free to look for another forum which suits your needs.

Susan

Thanks Susan

 

[ChrisE]

That is extremely difficult to believe. Your posts are extremely aggressive. Please consider this an official warning.

If you are not happy with the responses you are getting here, you are free to look for another forum which suits your needs.

Susan

So, when RR says something completely assinine about his psychological evaluation of LA when he was a teenager, it is to go unchallenged?

Aphronesis hits very close to the mark, *** and the mods jump into action.

 

[Dr. Maserati]

So, when RR says something completely assinine about his psychological evaluation of LA when he was a teenager, it is to go unchallenged?

Aphronesis hits very close to the mark, ie the mental problems of many in here, and the mods jump into action.

He was asked his view by Aphronesis -post 1026.

Good we can throw paranoid delusions into the mix. I've never heard of you other than this site. I'm asking if your anti-Armstrong vociferousness predated the comeback.
........

Of course when RR answers he is informed that the poster is not interested in his history....

 

[Susan Westemeyer]

One is always allowed to pose questions. What matters is how the questions are posed. Insults are not allowed. Nor are references to perceived mental problems of users.

Susan

 

[ChrisE]

One is always allowed to pose questions. What matters is how the questions are posed. Insults are not allowed. Nor are references to perceived mental problems of users.

Susan

I reported post 10332, and referred to it in the mod thread.

Is accusing other members of this allowed now, contrary to public statements by the mods? Is accusing somebody of that an "insult"?

I need to know, because there are alot of "groups" I can accuse people in here of being a part of if it is allowed. Thanks.

 

[Spider1964]

The entire network will be exposed. From Organizers (Stapleton, Knaggs), designers (Ferrari) couriers (Duffy and others). If Knaggs and Stapleton are smart they will try to work a deal as quickly as possible.

Multiple partners, including Armstrong and Weisel, have already been notified they are targets of the Qui Tam case. The financial exposure for that case is real. If the Feds "Join" the case then the defendants would be smart to negotiate a settlement as they will not win.

I do not see anything that would put Armstrong away for a decade, but there is absolutely the chance he will end up broke. The breadth of his legal issues are staggering

USDA will file a non-analytical positive. This is perhaps his cheapest case, but it will still cost him at least $1,000,000 to fight it and he will still lose

The Qui Tam case has some big financial risk, not just for Lance. He has already hired some lawyers who specialize in these cases. Even if he settles quickly it will cost millions

It is clear Armstrong expects FCPA charges. He has hired legal that are experts in this and it following closely several FCPA cases Doug Miller worked. The financial penalties for these type of cases can be large and the defense expensive. The Feds have stepped up their prosecution of them, 400% increase in the last few years.

Expect SCA, former and current sponsors, and the Times to file to recover $$$

Hard to see how Johan escapes any action in Italy or France. Ferrari is clearly is big trouble. Of all the people involved he will spend the most time in prison.

Ultimately Armstrong's biggest risk is $$$$. Sponsors will flee, speaking engagements will continue to dry up, legal fees and penalties will bleed him dry.

The next 5 years do not look good for any of those guys

Thank you for this... Very interesting stuff.

 

[Race Radio]

The UCI suing Kimmage is a ballsy move. They clearly think the FCPA case has no legs, either that or they are bluffing

http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/1...I-legal-action-by-McQuaid-and-Verbruggen.aspx

Given Fat Pat's long history of questionable tactical moves it is hard to understand what he is doing.

 

[mewmewmew13]

The entire network will be exposed. From Organizers (Stapleton, Knaggs), designers (Ferrari) couriers (Duffy and others). If Knaggs and Stapleton are smart they will try to work a deal as quickly as possible.

Multiple partners, including Armstrong and Weisel, have already been notified they are targets of the Qui Tam case. The financial exposure for that case is real. If the Feds "Join" the case then the defendants would be smart to negotiate a settlement as they will not win.

I do not see anything that would put Armstrong away for a decade, but there is absolutely the chance he will end up broke. The breadth of his legal issues are staggering

USDA will file a non-analytical positive. This is perhaps his cheapest case, but it will still cost him at least $1,000,000 to fight it and he will still lose

The Qui Tam case has some big financial risk, not just for Lance. He has already hired some lawyers who specialize in these cases. Even if he settles quickly it will cost millions

It is clear Armstrong expects FCPA charges. He has hired legal that are experts in this and it following closely several FCPA cases Doug Miller worked. The financial penalties for these type of cases can be large and the defense expensive. The Feds have stepped up their prosecution of them, 400% increase in the last few years.

Expect SCA, former and current sponsors, and the Times to file to recover $$$

Hard to see how Johan escapes any action in Italy or France. Ferrari is clearly is big trouble. Of all the people involved he will spend the most time in prison.

Ultimately Armstrong's biggest risk is $$$$. Sponsors will flee, speaking engagements will continue to dry up, legal fees and penalties will bleed him dry.

The next 5 years do not look good for any of those guys

Thanks for a good summary of everything RR.

A lot of folks think that because there is relative quiet in this part of the universe that Lance and his saga will fade away into the background noise. I can't believe that all this money and manpower on the prosecution side of things would be invested if it were not for solid evidence.

 

[LarryBudMelman]

So, when RR says something completely assinine about his psychological evaluation of LA when he was a teenager, it is to go unchallenged?

Aphronesis hits very close to the mark, *** and the mods jump into action.

===edit by mod===

To ChrisE, per Greg LeMond, Armstrong is a sociopath. That's as close to a correct diagnosis as any I've seen or been aware of.

What point are you trying to make? To me there doesn't seem to be any point.

Aphronesis; I haven't seen you contribute one relevant piece of information or one relevant question about Armstrong or his critics. Please ask or state something clearly. Bottom line, what's your point?

 

[Oldman]

The entire network will be exposed. From Organizers (Stapleton, Knaggs), designers (Ferrari) couriers (Duffy and others). If Knaggs and Stapleton are smart they will try to work a deal as quickly as possible.

Multiple partners, including Armstrong and Weisel, have already been notified they are targets of the Qui Tam case. The financial exposure for that case is real. If the Feds "Join" the case then the defendants would be smart to negotiate a settlement as they will not win.

I do not see anything that would put Armstrong away for a decade, but there is absolutely the chance he will end up broke. The breadth of his legal issues are staggering

USDA will file a non-analytical positive. This is perhaps his cheapest case, but it will still cost him at least $1,000,000 to fight it and he will still lose

The Qui Tam case has some big financial risk, not just for Lance. He has already hired some lawyers who specialize in these cases. Even if he settles quickly it will cost millions

It is clear Armstrong expects FCPA charges. He has hired legal that are experts in this and it following closely several FCPA cases Doug Miller worked. The financial penalties for these type of cases can be large and the defense expensive. The Feds have stepped up their prosecution of them, 400% increase in the last few years.

Expect SCA, former and current sponsors, and the Times to file to recover $$$

Hard to see how Johan escapes any action in Italy or France. Ferrari is clearly is big trouble. Of all the people involved he will spend the most time in prison.

Ultimately Armstrong's biggest risk is $$$$. Sponsors will flee, speaking engagements will continue to dry up, legal fees and penalties will bleed him dry.

The next 5 years do not look good for any of those guys

Sums it up for me, too. Add to that the folks of power outside of government that have been burned in the financial markets and there is likely equal pressure on the Feds to get a certain Mr. Thom.

 

[LarryBudMelman]

I agree with this synopsis. He will probably avoid jail time but it will cost him big $$$$$ and all he has in the bank not to mention his reputation will never recover.

What do you base the bolded assertion on?

IMHO if he just receives a civil penalty after a long criminal investigation it will be a big black eye for the Federal Govt.

With Marion Jones as a precedent I don't see the possibility of him doing less than a year, even if he flips spectacularly.

He's attacked too many people for anything other than a complete victory, slim chance, or absolute destruction.

 

[aphronesis]

I laid out a number of points the last time there was one of these dust-ups. Feel free to go back and seek them out--just prior to Christmas.

The questions I asked have either been deemed silly, obfuscatory, or patently answered (and that's only in the more sincere and lucid responses), so it's difficult to address the situation both civilly and succinctly and there's not much point in repeating those questions here. Most had to do with the various ways in which any fallout will be shaped and framed for a public. By extension they had to do with understanding the psychological investments of various posters as they relate to the situation--and the ways in which those investments might or might not be extrapolated to a larger public.

However, it seemed at that time, and since, that there's no discussion with those who dogmatically state that "the law is the law," and the need to entertain more complex scenarios is puerile and full of bad faith (if not orchestrated and paid for by some absurd PR firm).

And, as to a point for you LBM, whether the general public's lack of identification with the sport and activity of cycling (to the extent of many on this board) will lead them to a more or less subjective intepretation of LA's activities if and when they are eventually exposed via mainstream media?

 

[Benotti69]

What do you base the bolded assertion on?

IMHO if he just receives a civil penalty after a long criminal investigation it will be a big black eye for the Federal Govt.

With Marion Jones as a precedent I don't see the possibility of him doing less than a year, even if he flips spectacularly.

He's attacked too many people for anything other than a complete victory, slim chance, or absolute destruction.

Well i would love to see him behind bars for his doping, team doping, fraud and live$trong activities, but he is white and well connected. He aint Enron who pi$$ed off/Frauded a load of other white people, so good chance he will worm his way out of it.

 

[thehog]

Well i would love to see him behind bars for his doping, team doping, fraud and live$trong activities, but he is white and well connected. He aint Enron who pi$$ed off/Frauded a load of other white people, so good chance he will worm his way out of it.

I think they'll get him on the tax front. Channeling large amounts of cash through Europe using UBS accounts. Avoiding tax & funding narcotics will get him time.

Armstrong was about a $10-15m per year man. He lived the lifestyle of someone on $100m+. You don't get a jet unless you're in the $100m bracket. Something doesn't add up... it is Enron all over again. He wasn't just making money for himself he was making money for everyone in the gang. They all got rich. So where did they money come from & who bothered to pickup the tax bill?

He probably lose his substantial art collection & exclusive wine cellar in Spain amongst many things.

The fact that he shipping drugs via FedEx to team mates and not using his staff discount card at USPS will be his biggest crime

 

[Benotti69]

I think they'll get him on the tax front. Channeling large amounts of cash through Europe using UBS accounts. Avoiding tax & funding narcotics will get him time.

Armstrong was about a $10-15m per year man. He lived the lifestyle of someone on $100m+. You don't get a jet unless you're in the $100m bracket. Something doesn't add up... it is Enron all over again. He wasn't just making money for himself he was making money for everyone in the gang. They all got rich. So where did they money come from & who bothered to pickup the tax bill?

He probably lose his substantial art collection & exclusive wine cellar in Spain amongst many things.

The fact that he shipping drugs via FedEx to team mates and not using his staff discount card at USPS will be his biggest crime

Amrstrong would love to be Enron, 'Enron employed approximately 20,000 staff and was one of the world's leading electricity, natural gas, communications, and pulp and paper companies, with claimed revenues of nearly $101 billion in 2000.'

But he aint he is a small time hustler compared to that. But he is well connected for the moment, till the money runs out then his connections will too no doubt.

 

[BroDeal]

Here is a question for a lawyer. What time restrictions are placed on SCA filing suit? Does the countdown start after they paid Armstrong or when the fraud is proved or revealed?

With $7.5M paid in 2005 plus legal fees plus interest, the figure could be $20M. Then there are the other years that SCA paid. Add damages for perjury and the final figure may be huge.