Official Lance Armstrong Thread **READ POST #1 BEFORE POSTING**

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Mongol_Waaijer said:
Jurors are often smarter than we think.....many of the least likely ones often take surprising conditions during a trial (my old man's a judge)

And in any case, good deeds for cancer sufferers can't be taken into consideration regarding guilt / innocence if there is concrete evidence of wrongdoing, right? That can only be used as litigation appealing for leniency in sentencing, right?

I mean, surely no jury could have their meeting and agree that the evidence is indisputable that the defendant is guilty, but they will find not guilty because they like him?

Famous people and rich people get different treatment either because of their fame or the fact that they can hire the best lawyers. All I am saying is that, regardless of evidence, his defense's job is to provide a REASONABLE DOUBT. They don't have to prove or disprove anything. What is a "reasonable doubt?" That is subjective, and the fact is that famous people have escaped justice before because of jurors who are more inclined to interpret something as a "reasonable doubt" than would a truly detached juror. It also happens all the time in the reverse. Just ask those black guys who were released from death row because of DNA evidence.

All I am pointing out is that his actual guilt may have nothing to do with the verdict. That is my opinion.
 
May 18, 2009
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Mongol_Waaijer said:
there certainly have not been years of brutality from anti-doping authorities against Lance's teams.

and i doubt there will be anything as compelling in court as a glove not fitting etc.

OK you win.

Jury full of random idiots walk into courtroom, TFF, RR, Mongol Waaijer, HJ, etal walk out and deliver guilty verdict.

Got it. :rolleyes:
 
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bigloco said:
Are you kidding?!? HE HAS BEEN Tested 500 times in the last X years! They have repeatedly woken the team up in the early morning to test them. They actually watch him strip down and urinate in a cup! And for what? HE HAS NEVER Tested positive!

/takes off my crazy lawyer hat

If i'm the defense team, one of my questions to potential jurors: "have you ever used the term 'freedom fry'"

Put your crazy lawyer hat back on and do some investigation into that "500" figure. I think you will find it to be a load of crap based on the actual numbers. Just because the Master of Disaster says a number, I wouldn't go believing it.

Past that, no, Tex went and took a shower once if I remember correctly (and I do). I would suggest that coming in swinging with half truths and outright fabrications does not reflect positively on your lawyering skillz.
 
Aug 13, 2009
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ChrisE said:
Translation: RR puts hands over ears and covers eyes.....Chris is screwing up RR's dream of seeing LA behind bars, by pointing out how this is not a sure thing.

I suggest we wait to see the charges and evidence first.

I have written many times that Armstrong's risk is low as long as he does not attempt some absurd defense. Working out a plea deal would be the best thing for him and the American taxpayer. I can't image that this ever goes to a jury trial.

This is not Barry Bonds. There are no Greg Andersons who will spend time in prison to protect Wonderboy
 
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ChrisE said:
OK you win.

Jury full of random idiots walk into courtroom, TFF, RR, Mongol Waaijer, HJ, etal walk out and deliver guilty verdict.

Got it. :rolleyes:

Hey dude, don't call me an "idiot." I am on your side.
 
Jul 3, 2010
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Thoughtforfood said:
Put your crazy lawyer hat back on and do some investigation into that "500" figure. I think you will find it to be a load of crap based on the actual numbers. Just because the Master of Disaster says a number, I wouldn't go believing it.

Past that, no, Tex went and took a shower once if I remember correctly (and I do). I would suggest that coming in swinging with half truths and outright fabrications does not reflect positively on your lawyering skillz.

Hey, its the best i could do working on 0 years of law school and 4 shots of espresso this morning. I have no idea how many times they've actually visited him to test, but let me tell you this...as a Defense lawyer, if we're arguing over that number in court, we're already 75% of the way to an acquital.


I think theres alot less wiggle room in the tax evasion and LAF angle (if there's even any investigation going on there)
 
Aug 13, 2009
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bigloco said:
Hey, its the best i could do working on 0 years of law school and 4 shots of espresso this morning. I have no idea how many times they've actually visited him to test, but let me tell you this...as a Defense lawyer, if we're arguing over that number in court, we're already 75% of the way to an acquital.


I think theres alot less wiggle room in the tax evasion and LAF angle (if there's even any investigation going on there)

No arguing needed. It is easy to go to the USADA website and prove that the 500 number is a lie. It would never be presented in court as fact, too easy to shoot down.
 
Jul 3, 2010
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Race Radio said:
No arguing needed. It is easy to go to the USADA website and prove that the 500 number is a lie. It would never be presented in court as fact, too easy to shoot down.

the point wasn't to argue about "the number" it was just that a sly lawyer will paint the situation as directed oppression towards LA's team.

I just remember the 500 from a quote from one of his lawyers. I don't remember the forums' conclusions on that number...I think that post was somewhere nestled between posts proving as fact that he's a sociopath and that he had exclusive use of PEDs that are undetectable and not available to anyone else in sports.
 
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bigloco said:
the point wasn't to argue about "the number" it was just that a sly lawyer will paint the situation as directed oppression towards LA's team.

I just remember the 500 from a quote from one of his lawyers. I don't remember the forums' conclusions on that number...I think that post was somewhere nestled between posts proving as fact that he's a sociopath and that he had exclusive use of PEDs that are undetectable and not available to anyone else in sports.

Actually, contrary to what is shown on TV, a sly lawyer would not misrepresent a material fact like that in court. There are a couple of reasons for this: 1. It is unethical and against the Model Rules, and you can be disciplined for it. 2. (most importantly) You will look like a lying idiot (the implication of which will quickly move to your client) when the opposition provides the proof that you are a liar.
 
Aug 13, 2009
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bigloco said:
the point wasn't to argue about "the number" it was just that a sly lawyer will paint the situation as directed oppression towards LA's team.

I just remember the 500 from a quote from one of his lawyers. I don't remember the forums' conclusions on that number...I think that post was somewhere nestled between posts proving as fact that he's a sociopath and that he had exclusive use of PEDs that are undetectable and not available to anyone else in sports.

Saying "500 tests" in an interview is not the same as introducing it in court as evidence. It would be foolish to repeat such a lie in court. It is easy to counter with facts and would be a huge opening for the prosecution.

regardless, it does not matter. I can't see this going to trial.
 
Jul 3, 2010
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Thoughtforfood said:
Actually, contrary to what is shown on TV, a sly lawyer would not misrepresent a material fact like that in court. There are a couple of reasons for this: 1. It is unethical and against the Model Rules, and you can be disciplined for it. 2. (most importantly) You will look like a lying idiot (the implication of which will quickly move to your client) when the opposition provides the proof that you are a liar.

I was just pulling some soundbites out of the LA defense machine. I know we're not talking about ambulance chasers here. If I really am a sly lawyer, I can make the actual number sound big to a jury of freedom fry eating Americans.
 

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Thoughtforfood said:
Contrary to the smoke thrown up about the Bonds case, it was not lost because the evidence was not sufficient. It was lost because of stupid jurors.

Ahh, because of stupid jurors.
Is that what they teach in Law School?

Tell me, who was responsible for choosing and approving those "stupid jurors"?

The prosecution spent 8 years originally launching 15 indictments.
Only five indictments made it to trial. And one thrown out during trial.
Of the surviving 4 indictments - 3 are "mistrials".
The Bonds prosecution was a joke.

It seems the Feds send their A Team against financial criminals, not sport cheaters. Raj Rajaratnam - 14 indictments, 14 guilty verdicts booyaa.

That said, the Feds will send their A Team up against Lance.
Awesome warrants awesome.
Too bad they were not wire tapping Lance's phone lines way back when.
 
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Race Radio said:
Saying "500 tests" in an interview is not the same as introducing it in court as evidence. It would be foolish to repeat such a lie in court. It is easy to counter with facts and would be a huge opening for the prosecution.

regardless, it does not matter. I can't see this going to trial.

I hope you are right, but Tex has shown that he believes he is above all of this. He seems to me to be the type of person who will rely on the fact that his best shot is with a jury. Then again, if the evidence is absolutely SOLID, he may have no other choice. I only hope the evidence is that solid, but I am not counting out the possibility that it may not be a slam dunk case. We will see.
 
Jul 29, 2010
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Thoughtforfood said:
Actually, contrary to what is shown on TV, a sly lawyer would not misrepresent a material fact like that in court. There are a couple of reasons for this: 1. It is unethical and against the Model Rules, and you can be disciplined for it. 2. (most importantly) You will look like a lying idiot (the implication of which will quickly move to your client) when the opposition provides the proof that you are a liar.

You have not spent any time in divorce court yet I suspect, also known as liars court. No self respecting criminal lawyer would ever lie because its a deathblow professionally, divorce lawyers on the other hand practice it daily.
 
May 26, 2010
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Thoughtforfood said:
I hope you are right, but Tex has shown that he believes he is above all of this. He seems to me to be the type of person who will rely on the fact that his best shot is with a jury. Then again, if the evidence is absolutely SOLID, he may have no other choice. I only hope the evidence is that solid, but I am not counting out the possibility that it may not be a slam dunk case. We will see.

Problem is not with Gunderson alone, there are other major figures who will have a lot to lose and may not be prepared to gamble on a jury acquiting them and they dont have the myth of "done too much good for too many" attached by a thread to their name.
 
Aug 7, 2010
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bigloco said:
I just remember the 500 from a quote from one of his lawyers. I don't remember the forums' conclusions on that number...I think that post was somewhere nestled between posts proving as fact that he's a sociopath and that he had exclusive use of PEDs that are undetectable and not available to anyone else in sports.

There was a thread started some weeks ago in which the OP was trying to source all of LAs tests to arrive at a definitive number. That thread go derailed and closed. So, can we try again? I know that I would really like to know the real number of times he's been tested. Is it 500, 5000, was he constantly hooked up to a Blue Tooth urine and blood testing machine? :rolleyes:
 
Jul 27, 2010
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if Lance were just another athlete, he would have had nowhere near the same riches, fame, leeway etc. He is not even the most successful 4-5 cyclists of all time but he dwarfs all other cyclists in terms of fame, not because of his athletic success but because of his STORY.

And your evidence for this is…? Can you name a contemporary athlete with comparable success who did not achieve a large degree of fame and fortune? Many hard core cycling fans may indeed not regard LA as one of the 4-5 best, but American fans, which fuel so much of his support, pay attention only to the TDF. Seven titles in a row guarantees a lot of fame and fortune, all by themselves.

Do you really think it’s all about the cancer story? Lemond did pretty well with just three titles. If he or someone else without the cancer story had won seven in a row, don’t you think he would be pretty famous and rich as a result? Don’t you think he would have been hailed as a transcendent figure in sports? I agree with you that the cancer story has greatly enlarged LA’s fan base around the world, but it’s not as though he would have been an unknown if he had “only” won seven Tours. You don’t have to have a prominent charity to appeal to fans all over the globe. Look at Tiger Woods, or Kobe Bryant, or Michael Phelps. They do pretty well just on the basis of their athletic accomplishments.

I have no doubt without the cancer angle and the fame and success that brought to cycling, Lance would have been brought down long before he ever got near 7 Tours wins. The cancer angle was always cynically used as a shield and I find that offensive and immoral.

There are two claims here that I think you’re conflating. One, that LA used the cancer as a way of convincing fans he couldn’t have been doping. I agree with that to some extent. Certainly many of his fans trot out that argument. OTOH, that point is much less brought up than the “never tested positive” one, which is just as available to many other athletes. I could name a whole slew of other superstars who are getting just as much mileage out of that premise as LA is: Albert Pujols, Manny Pacquiao, Tiger Woods, Rafa Nadal.

The other claim is that the cancer somehow protected him from getting busted. I think this is much harder to support. Getting busted for doping, as we have all noted here, is actually hard to do. Most of his major rivals skated just like he did until after he retired. They didn’t have cancer; why didn’t they get “brought down”? After 2005 it was different, but some people argue that LA retired in 2005 just because he thought he would get caught if he raced any more. He certainly didn’t retire because he didn’t have it any more. He would have been a strong favorite in 2006, and maybe in 07 and 08.

Suppose LA never existed, or never rode at a high level. Most likely, Ullrich would have gone down as the dominant rider of his generation. He, too, would probably not have been considered by hard core fans as one of the top 4 or 5, and without the cancer story, his world-wide fan base would not have been as large. But would that mean he would be more likely to have been sanctioned? Do you think he would have been busted prior to 2006? How, if he never tested positive? And what if Puerto had never happened? Do you think he would have been forced to retire for some other reason? Why?

What Armstrong done and got away with goes far beyond the realm of just another doping cyclist and to have listen all the BS around the guy for the last 7-8 years all the while knowing he was a fake, well I just find it hard how anyone can not want to see him go down. To me Lance is the perfect figurehead of an immorally bankrupt society in which fakes can become super-rich icons based on nothing more than lies and BS.

Yes, fakes get rich and famous in some areas of life, but not in pro sports. You really can’t fake athletic accomplishment completely. Though much that LA did bothers me, I have real trouble equating him with some preacher who rakes in millions while living a life contradictory to his message. LA is a very complex character. His success was not based all on talent and hard work, but it certainly was to some extent. All the cancer charities in the world wouldn’t have helped him if he hadn’t won all those Tours. Many athletes have some charity that they campaign for. Tyler did, for example, but Tyler’s much lower profile had nothing to do with the specific charity that he endorsed, and everything to do with the fact that his results were not in any way comparable to LA’s.

I guess there are two kinds of anti-LA people, hard core and soft core. The hard core story goes like this: He was a marginal talent, who, despite never showing great promise as a GT rider, and despite cancer, was able to convince the best doping doctor in the world to take him on exclusively. Rather than, for example, Ullrich, who up until 99 was considered a far better GT prospect than LA, who had actually won the TDF at 23. Through this exclusive program, LA didn’t simply get better, he became the best climber in the world, though he couldn’t climb to save himself before that. Blood doping couldn’t accomplish that, and the hard cores refuse to entertain the idea that his body was reshaped through cancer, so apparently Ferrari had access to some other drug—to this day unknown to anyone else—that specifically increases power/weight ratio. Repeat: blood doping would not accomplish this, so forget HemAssist, PFCs, and all the rest. Not saying he didn’t use them, I’m saying they would not be enough.

As he was winning all these Tours, publicity for his cancer charity grew. He took full advantage of that, to the point that even after he retired it became a source of income that could continue to support his extravagent lifestyle. He ensured this by committing outright fraud, manipulating the income and conflating the Livestrong.com and org businesses.

I guess I’m a soft core hater. Here’s how I view it. Cancer probably helped him in two ways: 1) he lost some upper body mass, improving his power/weight ratio; and 2) he became far more dedicated to racing. He doped like everyone else, mostly with EPO and later blood transfusions. Possibly also with something like HemAssist not available to other racers. if so, both that and Ferrari’s advice would have greatly reduced the likelihood of his getting caught, but it would not turn a donkey into a race horse, and it certainly did not turn a one day racer into a climber. Remember, he still had to pass the 50% HT rule like everyone else.

Maybe LA’s cancer status also protected him from doping controls, I'm certainly open to that possibility, and look forward to what the investigation uncovers. But since all the evidence indicates that his main rivals were also successfully doping during this period, I’m not so sure that if he was protected it made that much difference. There is the Mayo story, which is very damning against LA, but nothing like that for Ullrich or Basso that I know of, who in the end were much more serious rivals, anyway. Assuming they weren't protected, it appears they were able to avoid doping problems until Puerto, which means that throughout LA's reign, they were able to dope about as much and as often as LA was. For Ulle, of course, that was most of his career.

In addition to a good but not far and away better doping program, LA had a very strong work ethic, and creative if boring new team tactics. His teammates, though not having access to Ferrari’s splendors, managed to dope themselves so well that they could outride or at least tire out many of LA’s GC contenders on early stages of the Tour, and even on the early portions of some key climbs. This was another key to his success, but it also suggests that very good doping results were possible without Ferrari’s help. As far as I know, George and all the other lieutenants were not enrolled in Ferrari's program. Yet they became monsters in the Tour sometimes. Doesn't this show that Ferrari wasn't needed for really good results? Or is the claim here that LA was passing on Ferrari's special program (not just drugs, but specific tips on how to use them) to his teammates? But if Ferrari's program was capable of turning a one day racer into a seven time TDF winner, why would LA want to pass it along to guys like Hincapie?

He began the cancer charity not because of any cynical desire to profit from it, but because like any other person recovering from the disease he was profoundly touched by it. As I noted before, many star athletes have a disease that they focus on. He certainly didn’t mind all the extra fame and attention it brought him—I can’t imagine an athlete or any other celebrity who would. It has unquestionably increased his world wide fame and income, as I said before I agree about that. And he has used that to keep himself in the public eye since he retired.

After that, the picture is murky, for me. I have seen financial statements of the charity, and they appear on the up-and-up. OTOH, I have questions about how much good the organization actually does, since it funds very little research, but mostly provides services which it seems people could probably access on their own in many cases. I think there are legitimate questions about whether all this money is really accomplishing that much. One can certainly have ethical issues with LA here. I see some potential for a lot of sleaze. The question is whether laws have been broken, and I wait to see what the investigation may come up with.
 
May 26, 2010
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Without Cancer it is likely Gunderson would have not won the first Tdf '99 as he failed a test for corticoid. How did he dodge that, a backdated TUE, which those oh so nice people the UCI let him away with. Otherwise, bang there and then 2 year ban, and no 7 wins.
 
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JRTinMA said:
You have not spent any time in divorce court yet I suspect, also known as liars court. No self respecting criminal lawyer would ever lie because its a deathblow professionally, divorce lawyers on the other hand practice it daily.

You are right, never spent a day in divorce court (mine was done without the need for court), and I never intend to step into one either. I would rather have my feet amputated than do family law. No interest what so ever.
 
May 26, 2010
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Thoughtforfood said:
You are right, never spent a day in divorce court (mine was done without the need for court), and I never intend to step into one either. I would rather have my feet amputated than do family law. No interest what so ever.

i imagine a divorce Lawyer would be thrown out of a real court after their first 5 minutes of opening their mouths.
 
Jul 3, 2010
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Benotti69 said:
Without Cancer it is likely Gunderson would have not won the first Tdf '99 as he failed a test for corticoid. How did he dodge that, a backdated TUE, which those oh so nice people the UCI let him away with. Otherwise, bang there and then 2 year ban, and no 7 wins.

so he gets that 2 year ban which infuriates him to a degree that he doesn't retire the first time and wins 7 anyway.

Its hard to calculate all the what if's.
 
Feb 10, 2010
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Merckx index said:
Yes, fakes get rich and famous in some areas of life, but not in pro sports. You really can’t fake athletic accomplishment completely. Though much that LA did bothers me, I have real trouble equating him with some preacher who rakes in millions while living a life contradictory to his message. LA is a very complex character. His success was not based all on talent and hard work, but it certainly was to some extent.

The problem I have with these statements is you are comparing a preacher and fraud with an athlete and fraud. The preacher basically talks willing people out of their money. They are preying on the less intellectually gifted.

Some athletes turn to PED's to get that extra bit that's needed to be the winner. That's another kind of fraud. I'd argue worse than a preacher because they know the rules and willfully break them. It violates the foundation of the sport.



Merckx index said:
But if Ferrari's program was capable of turning a one day racer into a seven time TDF winner, why would LA want to pass it along to guys like Hincapie?

Because WonderBoy wants the win. You could see that in his last breakaway attempt at the TdF. Somehow he ends up with Horner and a couple of guys. Instead of working for Horner to get the win which someone watching out for his team would do, it's got to be all Lance. 5th of five or so in the breakaway with Horner as first or second loser. A Wonderboy personality type would never want to empower another rider to the point it harms his career. Fast enough to help, but never fast enough to be beaten.

And then there's the ethics involved in the allegation of enforcing team-wide doping.

Finally, it is critically important to remember that Wonderboy is 'the talent.'
There are quite a few others that were involved in developing the myth that are rarely mentioned. Some of these parties are in the Tailwind organization, though I imagine there were enough sycophants outside Tailwind willing to violate the law for a piece of the action.
 
May 18, 2009
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Thoughtforfood said:
Hey dude, don't call me an "idiot." I am on your side.

LOL no I mean a bunch of stupid people walk in, and then a bunch of smart people emerge like yourself and deliver the correct verdict. Like some transformation takes place in a jury room where all idiocy flies away like a fart in the wind.

I was complimenting you.
 
May 18, 2009
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Race Radio said:
I suggest we wait to see the charges and evidence first.
I have written many times that Armstrong's risk is low as long as he does not attempt some absurd defense. Working out a plea deal would be the best thing for him and the American taxpayer. I can't image that this ever goes to a jury trial.

This is not Barry Bonds. There are no Greg Andersons who will spend time in prison to protect Wonderboy


Exactly, let's wait and see is all I am saying as well. And let's not forget the absurd can happen even if the charges are insanely airtight. I was just reacting originally to the punchline of how "never tested positive" will be totally dismissed by the jury, and then to the victory laps in here about how LA is going down. That is by far not a sure thing as we have discussed.

Do you really see LA plea bargaining? I can't really wrap my head around that one, but who knows. Bonds for example I think would have been smart to please bargain. They didn't need Anderson to get him, but Bond's took his chances on the jury finding him not guilty on insanely obvious perjury. He lost the "obstruction of justice", and that makes zero sense if he didn't commit perjury. Especially listening to what the mental midget jurors were saying afterward to defend that train wreck of a verdict.
 
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